scholarly journals Oil Consumption and Economic Growth in Turkey: An ARDL Bounds Test Approach in the Presence of Structural Breaks

2019 ◽  
pp. 77-85
Author(s):  
Özgür Özaydın ◽  
H. Alper Güzel
Keyword(s):  
Economic Growth ◽  
Unit Root ◽  
Structural Breaks ◽  
Unit Root Tests ◽  
Annual Data ◽  
Oil Consumption ◽  
Ardl Bounds Test ◽  
Bounds Test ◽  
The Relationship ◽  
Toda And Yamamoto

The aim of this study is to investigate the relationship between oil consumption and income in Turkey, using annual data from 1961 to 2016. The stationarity properties of the series are analyzed with Lee and Strazicizh (2003), unit root test allowing for two structural breaks, along with the conventional unit root tests namely ADF, PP and KPSS. Due to conflicting findings of the unit root tests, ARDL bounds test approach to cointegration is used to capture the relationship between oil consumption and income. The findings of the ARDL bounds test indicated that oil and income are cointegrated. The causal relationship between the variables is also examined by employing Toda and Yamamoto (1995), approach to Granger non-causality. The outcomes of the Toda and Yamamoto (1995), procedure showed that the direction of the causality is running from real GDP to oil consumption, but not vice versa. Both bounds test and Toda and Yamamoto (1995), test results reveal that, energy conservation policies will not harm economic growth in Turkey.

scholarly journals Structural Breaks and Explosive Behavior in the Long-Run: The Case of Australian Real House Prices, 1870–2020

2021 ◽  
Vol 15 (1) ◽  
pp. 72-84
Author(s):  
Vicente Esteve ◽  
Maria A. Prats
Keyword(s):  
Time Series ◽  
Unit Root ◽  
Structural Breaks ◽  
House Prices ◽  
Unit Root Tests ◽  
Annual Data ◽  
Bubble Behavior ◽  
Long Period ◽  
Long Run ◽  
Long Time

Abstract In this article, we use tests of explosive behavior in real house prices with annual data for the case of Australia for the period 1870–2020. The main contribution of this paper is the use of very long time series. It is important to use longer span data because it offers more powerful econometric results. To detect episodes of potential explosive behavior in house prices over this long period, we use the recursive unit root tests for explosiveness proposed by Phillips et al. (2011), (2015a,b). According to the results, there is a clear speculative bubble behavior in real house prices between 1997 and 2020, speculative process that has not yet been adjusted.

Inverted U Curve in Economic Growth and Energy Consumption: Evidence from China

2013 ◽  
Vol 291-294 ◽  
pp. 1202-1205
Author(s):  
Hui Zhang ◽  
Yi Yu
Keyword(s):  
Economic Growth ◽  
Energy Consumption ◽  
Technological Innovation ◽  
Unit Root ◽  
Turning Point ◽  
Unit Root Tests ◽  
Industrial Upgrading ◽  
Curve Model ◽  
The Relationship ◽  
Casual Relationship

This paper uses unit root tests including LLC, IPS, PP and ADF and Pedroni cointegration test to study the relationship between economic growth and energy consumption. By initially determined the casual relationship, we construct an inverted-U curve model to reexamine the connection of the two variables. Evidence from China’s panel data including 29 provinces from 1995 to 2010 supports the inverted-U curve in the relationship and the turning point is at 23432 yuan. The explanation for this is that industrial upgrading and technological innovation are conducive to energy conservation.

Linking energy consumption with economic growth: Rwanda as a case study

2021 ◽  
pp. 181-200
Author(s):  
Gerard Bikorimana ◽  
Charles Rutikanga ◽  
Didier Mwizerwa
Keyword(s):  
Economic Growth ◽  
Energy Consumption ◽  
Granger Causality ◽  
Granger Causality Test ◽  
Causality Test ◽  
Ardl Bounds Test ◽  
Causal Direction ◽  
Bounds Test ◽  
Toda And Yamamoto

This paper analyzes the link between energy consumption and economic growth in Rwanda for the period 1985-2017. The ARDL bounds test was used to test for the existence of co-integration, while the Toda and Yamamoto granger causality test was applied to test for causal direction. The results from the estimation of the ARDL bounds test showed that there was no evidence of co-integration between the considered variables under study. Additionally, the empirical findings confirmed that there was no relationship between economic growth and energy consumption in Rwanda. The findings supported the "neutrality hypothesis" between energy consumption and economic growth. This implies that neither conservative nor expansive policies in relation to energy consumption have any effect on economic growth. Furthermore, the study found a uni-directional granger causality running from energy consumption to economic growth. The results of this findings are consistent with the "growth hypothesis" which postulates that energy consumption leads to economic growth

scholarly journals The Impacts of Research and Development Expenses on Export and Economic Growth

2017 ◽  
Vol 1 (1) ◽  
pp. 1 ◽  
Author(s):  
Serhat Yüksel
Keyword(s):  
Economic Growth ◽  
Research And Development ◽  
Unit Root ◽  
Union Member ◽  
Unit Root Tests ◽  
Annual Data ◽  
Causality Analysis ◽  
Panel Unit Root Tests ◽  
Panel Causality ◽  
Causality Relationship

The purpose of this study is to identify the effects of research and development expenses on export and economic growth. Within this scope, annual data of 28 European Union member countries for the periods between 1996 and 2014 was taken into the consideration. Additionally, Dumitrescu Hurlin panel causality analysis was used in this study to achieve this objective. First of all, Im, Pesaran and Shin and Levin, Lin & Chu panel unit root tests were used to understand whether the variables are stationary or not. As a result of these tests, it was defined that the variable of economic growth is stationary whereas other two variables (export and R&D) are not. According to the results of Dumitrescu Hurlin causality analysis, it was determined that there is not a significant relationship between economic growth and R&D. On the other hand, it was concluded that there is a causality relationship from export to R&D expenses. This situation shows that EU member countries, which have higher export amount, give more importance to R&D in order to improve themselves.

scholarly journals Econometric analysis of oil consumption and economic growth in Nepal

2012 ◽  
pp. 135-143
Author(s):  
Tara Prasad Bhusal
Keyword(s):  
Economic Growth ◽  
Gross Domestic Product ◽  
Granger Causality ◽  
Electricity Generation ◽  
Granger Causality Test ◽  
Annual Data ◽  
Oil Consumption ◽  
Causality Test ◽  
Long Run ◽  
The Relationship

Oil is one of the main inputs for many sectors like transportation, manufacturing, electricity generation and others. Oil is also very important for the economic growth of Nepal. This paper examines the short and long-run causality between oil consumption and Gross Domestic Product for Nepal using annual data covering the period of 1975-2009. Granger causality test is employed to analyse the relationship between economic growth and oil consumption variables with same order of integration (I (1)). In this study is found that there exists bi-directional Granger causality between oil consumption and economic growth in the short and long run.Key words: Oilconsumption; Economic Growth; Causality; Co-integrationEconomic Journal of Development Issues Vol. 11 & 12 No. 1-2 (2010) Combined IssuePage: 135-143Uploaded date: 10 April, 2012

scholarly journals DOES TOTAL FACTOR PRODUCTIVITY CONVERGE AMONG ASEAN COUNTRIES?

2019 ◽  
pp. 477-494
Author(s):  
Badri Narayan Rath
Keyword(s):  
Economic Growth ◽  
Total Factor Productivity ◽  
Lagrange Multiplier ◽  
Unit Root ◽  
Unit Root Tests ◽  
Annual Data ◽  
Alternative Measure ◽  
Factor Productivity ◽  
Productivity Convergence ◽  
Asean Countries

This paper examines the productivity convergence of the five original Association ofSoutheast Asian Nations (ASEAN) countries, namely Indonesia, Malaysia, Philippines,Singapore, and Thailand (ASEAN-5), using annual data spanning the period 1968to 2014. Results from two-break Lagrange multiplier and residual augmented leastsquares Lagrange multiplier unit root tests reveal strong evidence of productivityconvergence in case of ASEAN-5. Further, the results based on Phillips–Sul panelclub convergence also reveal productivity convergence. To check the robustness ofour finding, we use an alternative measure of total factor productivity and still findevidence of convergence. We infer that such productivity improvements may helpASEAN countries to achieve a higher pace of economic growth.

scholarly journals Exports, Imports and Economic Growth in Iran: An Application of Bounds Test Approach to Cointegration

2010 ◽  
Author(s):  
Hassan Heidari ◽  
Narmin Davoudi
Keyword(s):  
Economic Growth ◽  
Human Capital ◽  
Structural Breaks ◽  
Growth Models ◽  
Import Demand ◽  
Annual Data ◽  
Long Run ◽  
Negative Effect ◽  
Short Run ◽  
Bounds Test

This paper examines the long-run relationship between exports, imports and economic growth in Iranian economy using annual data over the period of 1960-2007. As Iran is an oil-exporting country, and oil-export boom has a direct impact on the import demand function, and it leads to higher levels of consumption that impact on growth, we emphasize the role of the imports variable in this investigation. Moreover, following recent studies about importance of human capital in endogenous growth models, we extend Feder's model (1982) by entering a proxy for human capital. As Iranian economy has been subject to numerous shocks and regime shifts, we apply Bai and Perron (2003) test to detect any possible endogenous structural breaks. Hence, investigating data properties by concerning structural breaks shows that our variables are not in the same order of integration. This property convince us to use Bounds Test approach to cointegration developed by pesaran et, al. (2001) where it can be applied irrespective of order of integration of the variables. Finally, being sure about existence a long-run relationship between variables, ARDL approach and ECM employed to argue about short-run and long-run coefficient. The results reveal that while there is significant positive relationship between exports and economic growth, the effect of imports is insignificant and also human capital has a negative effect on growth both in short and long run.

Survey on structural breaks and unit root tests

2020 ◽  
Vol 58 ◽  
pp. 96-141
Author(s):  
A. Skrobotov ◽  
◽  
Keyword(s):  
Unit Root ◽  
Structural Breaks ◽  
Unit Root Tests

A revisit of the unemployment rate, interest rate, GDP growth and Inflation of Pakistan: Whether Structural break or unit root?

2021 ◽  
Vol 3 (2) ◽  
pp. 80-92
Author(s):  
Sara Muhammadullah ◽  
Amena Urooj ◽  
Faridoon Khan
Keyword(s):  
Interest Rate ◽  
Unemployment Rate ◽  
Unit Root ◽  
Structural Breaks ◽  
Inflation Rate ◽  
Structural Break ◽  
Unit Root Test ◽  
Unit Root Tests ◽  
Gdp Growth ◽  
Macroeconomic Indicators

The study investigates the query of structural break or unit root considering four macroeconomic indicators; unemployment rate, interest rate, GDP growth, and inflation rate of Pakistan. The previous studies create ambiguity regarding the stationarity and non-stationarity of these variables. We employ Zivot & Andrews (1992) unit root test and Step Indicator Saturation (SIS) method for multiple break detection in mean. GDP growth and inflation rate are stationary at level whereas unit root tests fail to reject the null hypothesis of the unemployment rate and interest rate at level. However, Zivot and Andrew unit root test with a single endogenous break indicates that the unemployment rate and interest rate are stationary at level with a single endogenous break. On the other hand, the SIS method reveals that the series are stationary with multiple structural breaks. It is inferred that it is inappropriate to take the first difference of the unemployment rate and interest rate to attain stationarity. The results of this study confirmed that there exist multiple breaks in the macroeconomic variables considered in the context of Pakistan.

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