scholarly journals Market Meltdown and the Propagation Mechanism of Contagion

2010 ◽  
Author(s):  
Dilip K. Ghosh ◽  
Dipasri Ghosh
Keyword(s):  
World Economy ◽  
World Wide ◽  
Analytical Framework ◽  
Propagation Mechanism ◽  
The Real ◽  
Us Economy ◽  
The Us

World economy came on a tailspin because of market meltdown and the propagation of contagion triggered by recession, starting mostly from the US economy. This work highlights the grim developments in the financial sectors and the real sectors world-wide, and then an attempt is made to highlight the propagation mechanism of infective contagion. Theoretical structures of such interconnected are showcased through various analytical vehicles. The indices of sensitivities and dispersions are measured in mathematical terms, and in that sense a new analytical framework is presented. However, empirical evaluations of the propagation mechanism remain unfinished because of the dearth of data  

The World Economy

2007 ◽  
Vol 200 ◽  
pp. 7-30 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Global Economy ◽  
World Economy ◽  
Housing Markets ◽  
Housing Investment ◽  
The Past ◽  
Us Economy ◽  
The Us ◽  
The World ◽  
Monetary Authorities ◽  
Rates Of Growth

The global economy expanded by 5.3 per cent in 2006, one of the fastest rates of growth in the past 35 years. We project further expansions of 5 per cent this year and 4¾ per cent in 2008. The key risks to the forecast that we highlight in this Review relate to global housing markets and the current stance of monetary policy. The US economy is restrained by the recent correction in its housing market, which is expected to continue to weigh on the economy through 2008. There is some concern that the housing investment downturn may spread to other economies, and in this report we explore the areas most at risk to such a contagion. We also consider the recent volatility in the oil price, which makes it difficult for monetary authorities to distinguish signal from noise. If too much emphasis is placed on what subsequently turns out to be noise, policy settings could turn out to be overly lax or stringent.

Stability of Supply Coefficients and Consistency of Supply-Driven and Demand-Driven Input-Output Models: A Reply

1991 ◽  
Vol 23 (12) ◽  
pp. 1811-1817 ◽  
Author(s):  
S Deman
Keyword(s):  
Real World ◽  
Joint Stability ◽  
Input Output ◽  
Aggregated Data ◽  
The Real ◽  
Us Economy ◽  
The Us ◽  
The Usa ◽  
Stability And Consistency

A comment by Miller was published in the August 1989 issue of Environment and Planning A, which makes an intriguing comparison of a paper by Chen and Rose with one by myself. His comment concerns the uses of various terminologies in the literature on supply-driven and demand-driven input—output models and the claims to have defined terms such as ‘stability’, ‘joint stability’, and ‘consistency’. Further, generalizations are made on the basis of a specific set of aggregated data for the US economy to show that biproportional changes suggested in my theorem are unlikely to be observed in the real world. I will show that Miller adds no illumination to the issues of ‘stability’ or ‘consistency’, and that, in fact, his comment accomplishes nothing of import. His comment could also leave us with the impression that the USA is the only ‘real-world’ example worthy of comment.

At A Glance…: The world economy

2006 ◽  
Vol 196 ◽  
pp. 2-3
Keyword(s):  
Interest Rates ◽  
Euro Area ◽  
Global Economy ◽  
World Economy ◽  
Us Economy ◽  
The Us ◽  
The World ◽  
Global Growth

• Global growth will remain rapid over the next two years, with world GDP rising by 4.8 per cent in 2006 and 4.5 per cent in 2007.• China's growing weight in the global economy is a key reason why interest rates have been unusually low.• The US economy will grow by 3.3 per cent this year and 2.9 per cent in 2007.• Japan will expand by 2.9 per cent in 2006 and 2.3 per cent next year.• The Euro Area will grow by 2.1 per cent this year and 2.0 per cent in 2007.

At a Glance…

2010 ◽  
Vol 212 ◽  
pp. F2-F2
Keyword(s):  
Euro Area ◽  
World Trade ◽  
World Economy ◽  
Chinese Economy ◽  
List Type ◽  
Us Economy ◽  
The Us ◽  
The World

The world economy will expand by 3.9 per cent in 2010 and 3.8 per cent in 2011.World trade will increase by 9.6 per cent this year and 5.7 per cent in 2011.The Chinese economy will grow by 9.8 per cent in 2010 and 9 per cent next year.Japanese GDP will expand by 2 per cent this year and 1.5 per cent in 2011.The US economy will grow by 2.9 per cent in 2010 and 2.7 per cent next year.The Euro Area will expand by 1.2 per cent this year and 1.8 per cent in 2011.

The US economy: the real estate outlook for 2002

2002 ◽  
Vol 1 (4) ◽  
pp. 367-375
Author(s):  
Marc Louargand
Keyword(s):  
Real Estate ◽  
The Real ◽  
The Real Estate ◽  
Us Economy ◽  
The Us

Risk and Equity Market Weakness: Their Implications for the World Economy

2001 ◽  
Vol 178 ◽  
pp. 9-13
Author(s):  
Ray Barrell
Keyword(s):  
New York ◽  
Stock Market ◽  
Financial Markets ◽  
World Economy ◽  
Terrorist Attack ◽  
Initial Reaction ◽  
Us Economy ◽  
The Us ◽  
The World ◽  
Stock Market Valuations

The terrorist attack on New York on 11 September 2001 caused considerable disruption to the US economy, and especially to the US financial markets. The initial reaction of the financial markets was to increase the discount factor on future profits and reduce future profit projections, and hence stock market valuations fell markedly, as can be seen from charts 1 and 2. This fall has been largely reversed since the attack, but markets have in general continued their decline from their peaks a year or so ago. Falls have been particularly precipitate since July 2001, with the German and French stock market indices falling by 20 per cent over the last three months, whilst the Canadian markets have fallen even more. Stock market falls of the scale we have seen since July are almost bound to impact on the level of economic activity in the major economies. They are likely to reduce the rate of growth of the world economy over the medium term as well as change the structure of saving and investment.

The World Economy: Effects of Risk Premia Falling Below Sustainable Levels in the US

2009 ◽  
Vol 210 ◽  
pp. 16-20
Keyword(s):  
World Economy ◽  
Positive Impact ◽  
Risk Premia ◽  
Rapid Decline ◽  
Positive Contribution ◽  
Short Term ◽  
The Third ◽  
Us Economy ◽  
The Us ◽  
The World

The outlook for the US economy has improved modestly compared to our projections three months ago. This can be attributed largely to the unexpectedly rapid decline in risk premia, while the recovery in world trade appears to be being led by Asian markets, allowing a positive contribution to US growth from net trade in the short term. After a cumulative decline in output of 3.8 per cent in the US in the year to the second quarter of 2009, GDP probably recorded a rise in the third quarter, supported by a rise in consumer spending and a positive impact from net trade. We expect output to decline by 2.8 per cent in 2009 as a whole, and forecast a rise in US GDP of 1.3 per cent in 2010.

Financial market contagion and the effects of the crises in East Asia, Russia and Latin America

1998 ◽  
Vol 166 ◽  
pp. 57-73 ◽  
Author(s):  
Ray Barrell ◽  
Karen Dury ◽  
Dawn Holland ◽  
Nigel Pain ◽  
Dirk te Velde
Keyword(s):  
World Economy ◽  
Japanese Economy ◽  
Equity Prices ◽  
Profit Margins ◽  
Us Economy ◽  
The Us ◽  
The World ◽  
Market Contagion ◽  
Equity Price ◽  
Chinese Yuan

The Asian crisis has had a marked effect on the world economy over the past fifteen months. Private sector demand has collapsed in the affected economies and reinforced the effects arising from the deflationary forces in the Japanese economy at present. Up until this summer it did not appear likely that the world economy as a whole would slide into a full scale recession, although it was clear that growth had begun to slow in the industrialised economies. There were also important downside risks in our forecasts at that time; in particular the danger that a policy of monetisation in Japan would further weaken the yen and set in motion renewed disruption by enforcing a devaluation of the Chinese yuan against the dollar. It was also clear that profit margins were coming under pressure in the US economy, raising the possibility that future dividends would be somewhat weaker than implied by the exceptionally rapid growth in real equity prices since 1994. Neither a Chinese devaluation nor an equity price collapse were however part of our central forecasts.

At a Glance …

2010 ◽  
Vol 213 ◽  
pp. F2-F2
Keyword(s):  
Euro Area ◽  
World Trade ◽  
World Economy ◽  
Chinese Economy ◽  
List Type ◽  
Us Economy ◽  
The Us ◽  
The World

The world economy will expand by 5.0 per cent in 2010 and 4.4 per cent in 2011.World trade will increase by 14.2 per cent this year and 8.8 per cent in 2011.The Chinese economy will grow by 11.6 per cent in 2010 and 8.3 per cent next year.Japanese GDP will expand by 3.3 per cent this year and 1.1 per cent in 2011.The US economy will grow by 3.1 per cent in 2010 and 3.0 per cent next year.The Euro Area will expand by 1.3 per cent this year and 1.8 per cent in 2011.

The World Economy

1997 ◽  
Vol 160 ◽  
pp. 36-62
Author(s):  
Ray Barrell ◽  
Julian Morgan ◽  
Nigel Pain ◽  
Florence Hubert
Keyword(s):  
Monetary Policy ◽  
Government Policy ◽  
Growth Rates ◽  
World Economy ◽  
Oecd Countries ◽  
Domestic Demand ◽  
Spare Capacity ◽  
Us Economy ◽  
The Us ◽  
The World

It is increasingly clear that the world economy has been recovering relatively strongly from a pause in activity at the end of 1995. The recovery has also been relatively well spread around the globe, with Japan displaying the strongest growth amongst the larger economies, in part because of the effects of the depreciation of the yen, but also because government policy was expansionary throughout last year. Although growth rates in Europe appear low in 1996, with Germany and France both recording growth of less than 1½ per cent, growth through the year has generally been strong. It appears there is still some spare capacity in Europe, and hence growth can be expected to strengthen further into 1998, at least within continental Europe. The US economy has been growing at or above capacity for several years; in the fourth quarter of last year output rose by a further 1 per cent, with growth through the year of over 3 per cent. Domestic demand also rose strongly in Canada and Mexico in the latter half of last year. Growth in the NAFTA economies is expected to strengthen in 1997, but to slow into 1998 in the aftermath of moves to tighten monetary policy. Overall, as can be seen from Table 1, we expect a period of above trend growth and low inflation in the majority of the OECD countries.

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