Decision Making Under Risk Across Different Contexts

10.32920/ryerson.14646000.v1 ◽

2021 ◽

Author(s):

Debra W. Soh

Keyword(s):

Decision Making ◽

Ecological Validity ◽

Rare Event ◽

Decision Quality ◽

Future Research ◽

Decision Making Under Uncertainty ◽

Decision Making Under Risk ◽

Meaningful Context

Decision making under risk has been intensively studied; however, little is understood about how decision making under risk changes with increased ecological validity. The current study investigated whether increased ecological validity resulted in greater decision quality and a minimization of the description-experience gap. Whether presenting items as abstract monetary gambles or framed within a meaningful context, decision quality was higher for loss items when presented as a description, and for gain items when experienced. When the rare event was a nonzero gain or loss, decision quality was increased when abstract monetary gambles were presented as a description. When the rate event was a zero gain, higher decision quality resulted if the gamble was experienced. When the rare event was a zero loss, higher decision quality resulted if the gamble was presented as a description. Implications for future research are discussed, with regard to improving understanding of decision making under uncertainty.

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2240 Shared decision making in child health: A qualitative study of parents of children with medical complexity

Journal of Clinical and Translational Science ◽

10.1017/cts.2018.304 ◽

2018 ◽

Vol 2 (S1) ◽

pp. 87-87

Author(s):

Jody Lin ◽

Catherine Clark ◽

Bonnie Halpern-Felsher ◽

Lee M. Sanders

Keyword(s):

Decision Making ◽

Shared Decision Making ◽

Pediatric Population ◽

Decision Quality ◽

Future Research ◽

Shared Decision ◽

Children With Medical Complexity ◽

Quality Health Care ◽

Medical Complexity ◽

Quality Health

OBJECTIVES/SPECIFIC AIMS: Children with medical complexity (CMC) comprise less than 5% of the pediatric population and over 40% of pediatric spending, yet receive poorer quality health care compared with other children. The American Academy of Pediatrics recently identified shared decision making (SDM) as a key quality indicator for CMC, but there is no consensus model for SDM in CMC. Objective: To create a model of SDM from perspectives of parents of CMC. METHODS/STUDY POPULATION: Interviews with parents of CMC explored SDM preferences and experiences. Eligible parents were ≥18 years old, English-speaking or Spanish-speaking, with a CMC <12 years old. Interviews were recorded, transcribed, and analyzed by 3 independent coders for shared themes using grounded theory. RESULTS/ANTICIPATED RESULTS: Interviews were with 31 parents [26 English speakers, median parent age 33 years (SD 11), median child age 3 years (SD 3.6)] in inpatient and outpatient settings. We identified specific, unique components of SDM that affect decision quality, the alignment of a decision with the parent’s preferences and values. Themes included: concerns about uncertainty of the child’s life trajectory, conflict during parent-provider communication, health system factors such as provider schedule; parent agency, and the influence of the source of information. DISCUSSION/SIGNIFICANCE OF IMPACT: Our findings provide specific components of SDM unique to CMC that can inform future research and interventions to support SDM for parents and providers of CMC.

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The Paradox of Minimax Regret

American Political Science Review ◽

10.2307/1958403 ◽

1975 ◽

Vol 69 (3) ◽

pp. 918-918 ◽

Cited By ~ 17

Author(s):

Nathaniel Beck

Keyword(s):

Decision Making ◽

Citizen Participation ◽

Risk Model ◽

Perfect Information ◽

Decision Making Under Uncertainty ◽

Minimax Regret ◽

Decision Making Under Risk ◽

Participation Decision ◽

Making A Difference ◽

Made In

The introduction of decision making under uncertainty by Ferejohn and Fiorina is an interesting addition to the literature on rational theories of citizen participation. Decision making under uncertainty assumes, however, that the actor has no knowledge of the probabilities of the various outcomes; this is obviously no more true than the assumption of perfect information about these probabilities made in the decision making under risk model. Voters have some, but not perfect, information about the probabilities of at least some of the different possible outcomes.Specifically, let us look at the two-party case. In Ferejohn's notation, (p3 + p4) is the probability of an individual's vote making a difference. We might expect a rational citizen to know that this probability is at most minuscule, even if he cannot calculate its exact value.

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Examining the Impact of Training and Feedback on Visualization-Supported Decision Making under Uncertainty

Proceedings of the Human Factors and Ergonomics Society Annual Meeting ◽

10.1177/1541931218621329 ◽

2018 ◽

Vol 62 (1) ◽

pp. 1449-1453

Author(s):

Jihye Song ◽

Olivia B. Newton ◽

Stephen M. Fiore ◽

Jonathan Coad ◽

Jared Clark ◽

...

Keyword(s):

Decision Making ◽

Ecological Validity ◽

Critical Role ◽

Decision Making Under Uncertainty ◽

Cognitive Efficiency ◽

Training Interventions ◽

Complex Decision Making ◽

Complex Decision ◽

Task Training ◽

The Impact

Empirical evaluations of uncertainty visualizations often employ complex experimental tasks to ensure ecological validity. However, if training for such tasks is not sufficient for naïve participants, differences in performance could be due to the visualizations or to differences in task comprehension, making interpretation of findings problematic. Research has begun to assess how training is related to performance on decision-making tasks using uncertainty visualizations. This study continues this line of research by investigating how training, in general, and feedback, in particular, affect performance on a simulated resource allocation task. Additionally, we examined how this alters metacognition and workload to produce differences in cognitive efficiency. Our results suggest that, on a complex decision-making task, training plays a critical role in performance with respect to accuracy, subjective workload, and cognitive efficiency. This study has implications for improving research on complex decision making, and for designing more efficacious training interventions to assess uncertainty visualizations.

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DECISION QUALITY IN COMPLEX PRODUCT DEVELOPMENT: REFLECTIONS ON A CASE STUDY

Proceedings of the Design Society ◽

10.1017/pds.2021.86 ◽

2021 ◽

Vol 1 ◽

pp. 861-870

Author(s):

Ghadir Siyam ◽

Mariely Salgueiro ◽

John Kennedy

Keyword(s):

Decision Making ◽

Oil And Gas ◽

Dynamic Environment ◽

Decision Quality ◽

Future Research ◽

Decision Making Process ◽

Dependency Structure ◽

Complex Projects ◽

Wide Range ◽

Dependency Structure Matrix

AbstractConceptual design projects are increasingly known as an intense decision-making process. Much of the decision-making is comparing the degree of preference between choices. In the complex projects of the upstream business of oil and gas, good decisions are crucial for success. Decisions are typically made within a dynamic environment, wide range of uncertainty, and have to account for the asset life cycle. This paper reflects on the application of the decision quality framework with a focus on decision modelling. Using an industrial example, a systematic approach to visualise and improve decision making process is proposed. The approach applies a Dependency Structure Matrix (DSM) and Decision Quality frameworks and identified opportunities for future research.

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The effects of visualization on judgment and decision-making: a systematic literature review

Management Review Quarterly ◽

10.1007/s11301-021-00235-8 ◽

2021 ◽

Author(s):

Karin Eberhard

Keyword(s):

Decision Making ◽

Strategic Management ◽

Information Visualization ◽

Social Science Research ◽

Science Research ◽

Decision Quality ◽

Future Research ◽

Management Decisions ◽

Managerial Decision ◽

Future Research Agenda

AbstractThe visualization of information is a widely used tool to improve comprehension and, ultimately, decision-making in strategic management decisions as well as in a diverse array of other domains. Across social science research, many findings have supported this rationale. However, empirical results vary significantly in terms of the variables and mechanisms studied as well as their resulting conclusion. Despite the ubiquity of information visualization with modern software, there is little effort to create a comprehensive understanding of the powers and limitations of its use. The purpose of this article is therefore to review, systematize, and integrate extant research on the effects of information visualization on decision-making and to provide a future research agenda with a particular focus on the context of strategic management decisions. The study shows that information visualization can improve decision quality as well as speed, with more mixed effects on other variables, for instance, decision confidence. Several moderators such as user and task characteristics have been investigated as part of this interaction, along with cognitive aspects as mediating processes. The article presents integrative insights based on research spanning multiple domains across the social and information sciences and provides impulses for prospective applications in the realm of managerial decision-making.

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On the Relationship between Cognitive Ability and Risk Preference

The Journal of Economic Perspectives ◽

10.1257/jep.32.2.115 ◽

2018 ◽

Vol 32 (2) ◽

pp. 115-134 ◽

Cited By ~ 23

Author(s):

Thomas Dohmen ◽

Armin Falk ◽

David Huffman ◽

Uwe Sunde

Keyword(s):

Decision Making ◽

Cognitive Ability ◽

Risk Taking ◽

Risk Preference ◽

Future Research ◽

Life Domains ◽

Risk And Uncertainty ◽

Decision Making Under Risk ◽

Controlled Environments ◽

The Relationship

This paper will focus on the relationship between cognitive ability and decision-making under risk and uncertainty. Taken as a whole, this research indicates that cognitive ability is associated with risk-taking behavior in various contexts and life domains, including incentivized choices between lotteries in controlled environments, behavior in nonexperimental settings, and self-reported tendency to take risks. One pattern that emerges frequently in these studies is that cognitive ability tends to be positively correlated with avoidance of harmful risky situations, but it tends to be negatively correlated with risk aversion in advantageous situations. We conclude by discussing perspectives for future research, in particular the scope for the development of richer sets of elicitation instruments and measurement across a wider range of concepts.

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