scholarly journals Análisis de Estabilidad Probabilístico del Talud de la Cantera Espinal – Juliaca

2018 ◽  
pp. 39-43
Keyword(s):  
Numerical Methods ◽  
Slope Stability ◽  
Safety Factor ◽  
Stress Reduction ◽  
Failure Probability ◽  
Probabilistic Analysis ◽  
Reduction Factor ◽  
Rock Slope Stability ◽  
Rocky Slope ◽  
Static Conditions

Análisis de Estabilidad Probabilístico del Talud de la Cantera Espinal – Juliaca Probabilistic Analysis of Slope Stability Espinal Quarry - Juliaca Fredy Alonso Valeriano Nina Facultad de Ingeniería de Minas, Universidad Nacional del Altiplano – Puno – Perú DOI: https://doi.org/10.33017/RevECIPeru2014.0006/ Resumen El presente estudio fue realizado en la cantera Espinal de la ciudad de Juliaca en el departamento de Puno, consiste en determinar los valores de seguridad que rigen la estabilidad o inestabilidad en un talud rocoso; factor de seguridad (FS) o reducción de la resistencia al corte (SRF) y la probabilidad de falla (PF), para lo cual se han utilizado los métodos generales de análisis de estabilidad de taludes en roca; Análisis cinemático y  métodos numéricos. Se realizó análisis probabilísticos por el método de estimación de puntos para mayor confiabilidad de los resultados de análisis con métodos numéricos. Teniendo como resultados en el análisis cinemático una probabilidad de plano de deslizamiento por volteo directo de 44.41%, los valores de seguridad promedio dado por los análisis probabilísticos con métodos numéricos en SRF son; para condiciones estáticas FS o SRF 2.27 y PF 0.0% y para condiciones seudoestáticas FS o SRF 1.21 y PF 2.98%. Por lo cual concluimos que el talud se encuentra estable en condiciones estáticas y seudoestáticas, tomando en consideración el resultado del análisis cinemático realizado se han observado grietas de tracción en la cresta del talud que fallaran por volteo directo dependiendo a la intensidad de los factores desencadenantes. Descriptores: Macizo rocosos, análisis probabilístico, factor de seguridad (FS), reducción de la resistencia al corte (SRF), probabilidad de falla (PF). Abstract This study was carried out in the Espinal highway of Juliaca city in the state of Puno, which consists in to determinate the safety values that controls the stability or instability of a rocky slope; safety factor (FS) or shear strength reduction (SRF) and failure probability (PF). Due to this, general methods of rock slope stability were used; cinematic analysis and numerical methods. Probabilistic analyses were conducted by the method of points’ estimation for more reliability in the results of numerical methods. Having in the cinematic analysis results a probability of glide plane by direct toppling of 44.41%, the values of average safety obtained by the probabilistic analysis with numerical methods in SFR are; for static conditions FS or SRF 2.27 and PF 0.0% and for pseudostatical conditions a FS or SRF 1.21 and PF 2.98%. Due to this, we concluded that the slope is stable in static and pseudostatic conditions, considering the results of cinematic analysis, were observed tension cracks on the top of the slope which failed by direct toppling depending of the intensity of trigger factors. Keywords: Rock Mass, probabilistic analysis, safety factor (FS), stress reduction factor (SRF), failure probability (PF).

Non-Probabilistic Reliability Research on Slope Stability Based on Interval Analysis

2013 ◽  
Vol 838-841 ◽  
pp. 835-839
Author(s):  
Xiao Chun Lu ◽  
Liang Gan
Keyword(s):  
Slope Stability ◽  
Reliability Analysis ◽  
Uniform Distribution ◽  
Safety Factor ◽  
Failure Probability ◽  
Interval Analysis ◽  
Evaluation System ◽  
Safety Evaluation ◽  
Structural Performance ◽  
Performance Function

In this paper, slope stability considering non-probabilistic reliability analysis based on interval analysis was discussed. We can get safety factor, safety factor interval, non-probabilistic reliability by slope stability computation based on interval analysis. Based on the hypothesis that interval variable of structural performance function numerical value obeys uniform distribution, failure probability based on interval analysis was put forward. These form plural evaluation system about slope stability; it perfects safety evaluation for slope stability.

The Sensitivity and Reliability Analysis of Slope Stability Based on Strength Reduction FEM

2013 ◽  
Vol 353-356 ◽  
pp. 491-494
Author(s):  
Ying Xiang Wu ◽  
Qiang Liu ◽  
Yu Jun Cang
Keyword(s):  
Sensitivity Analysis ◽  
Slope Stability ◽  
Reliability Analysis ◽  
Safety Factor ◽  
Failure Probability ◽  
Failure Surface ◽  
Strength Reduction ◽  
New Method ◽  
Mechanical Parameters ◽  
Calculation Process

A new method for reliability and sensitivity analysis of slope stability is proposed in this paper, which is based on strength reduction FEM. In this proposed method, the safety factor of slope can be calculated without assuming the shape and position of failure surface beforehand, and the randomness of physical and mechanical parameters of slope are considered in the calculation process. Meanwhile, the slopes failure probability is researched when the coefficients of variability change, and some useful conclusions are achieved.

Effects of anisotropy in correlation structure on reliability-based slope stability analysis of a landfill

2020 ◽  
pp. 0734242X2094636
Author(s):  
Mohammad Javad Mehdizadeh ◽  
Nader Shariatmadari ◽  
Mehran Karimpour-Fard
Keyword(s):  
Slope Stability ◽  
Safety Factor ◽  
Failure Probability ◽  
Random Variables ◽  
Unit Weight ◽  
Distribution Fitting ◽  
Correlation Lengths ◽  
Isotropic Structure ◽  
The Mean ◽  
Factor Data

In this study, a reliability-based analysis of slope stability in a landfill considering the spatial variability of shear strength (c and φ) and unit weight ( γ) of municipal solid waste was performed using the random finite difference method. The effect of the anisotropic correlation (AC) structure of random variables including c, φ, and γ on mean and coefficient of variation (CoV) of safety factor values was investigated using Monte Carlo simulation. Also, probability of failure was determined through probability distribution fitting to a series of safety factor data. The results showed that the AC of the random variables has a significant effect on the stochastic safety factor of landfill slope. In general, the mean of the stochastic safety factor decreases with increasing horizontal and vertical correlation lengths (CLs). Also, the CoV of the safety factor increased with increase in horizontal or vertical CLs or both. Moreover, it was found that failure probability increases with an increase in the horizontal and vertical CLs and assuming isotropic structure for the correlation of random variables leads to the underestimation of failure probability. Overall, the results indicate that assuming an AC structure results in different failure mechanisms in the landfill slope, which are different from the deterministic cases.

scholarly journals Design of Overall Slope Angle and Analysis of Rock Slope Stability of Chadormalu Mine Using Empirical and Numerical Methods

Engineering ◽  
2011 ◽  
Vol 03 (09) ◽  
pp. 965-971 ◽  
Author(s):  
Mahdi Rasouli Maleki ◽  
Mohammad Mahyar ◽  
Kambiz Meshkabadi
Keyword(s):  
Numerical Methods ◽  
Slope Stability ◽  
Rock Slope ◽  
Slope Angle ◽  
Rock Slope Stability

scholarly journals Some Remarks on the Use of Deterministic and Probabilistic Approaches in the Evaluation of Rock Slope Stability

Geosciences ◽  
2020 ◽  
Vol 10 (5) ◽  
pp. 163
Author(s):  
Paolo Budetta
Keyword(s):  
Slope Stability ◽  
Failure Probability ◽  
Slope Failure ◽  
Rock Slope ◽  
Limit Equilibrium ◽  
Mean Value ◽  
Probabilistic Methods ◽  
Equilibrium Analysis ◽  
Rock Slope Stability ◽  
Deterministic And Probabilistic Approaches

The rock slope stability assessment can be performed by means of deterministic and probabilistic approaches. As the deterministic analysis needs only representative values (generally, the mean value) for each physical and geo-mechanical parameter involved, it does not take into account the variability and uncertainty of geo-structural and geo-mechanical properties of joints. This analysis can be usually carried out using different methods, such as the Limit Equilibrium method or numerical modeling techniques sometimes implemented in graphical tests to identify different failure mechanisms (kinematic approach). Probabilistic methods (kinetic approach) aimed to calculate the slope failure probability, consider all orientations, physical characters and shear strength of joints and not only those recognized as kinematically possible. Consequently, the failure probability can be overestimated. It is, therefore, considered more realistic to perform both kinematic and kinetic analyses and to calculate a conditional probability given by the product of the kinematic and kinetic probabilities assuming that they are statistically independent variables. These approaches have been tested on two rock slopes in the Campanian region of Southern Italy affected by possible plane and wedge failures, respectively. Kinematic and kinetic probabilities have been evaluated both by means of the Markland’s test and the Monte Carlo simulation. Using the Eurocode 7, also a deterministic limit equilibrium analysis was performed. The obtained results were compared and commented on.

scholarly journals Probability Methods for Stability Design of Open Pit Rock Slopes: An Overview

Geosciences ◽  
2021 ◽  
Vol 11 (8) ◽  
pp. 319
Author(s):  
Musah Abdulai ◽  
Mostafa Sharifzadeh
Keyword(s):  
Stability Analysis ◽  
Slope Stability ◽  
Probabilistic Analysis ◽  
Rock Slope ◽  
Limit Equilibrium ◽  
Probability Of Failure ◽  
Slope Stability Analysis ◽  
Rock Slope Stability ◽  
Open Pit ◽  
Rational Approach

The rock slope stability analysis can be performed using deterministic and probabilistic approaches. The deterministic analysis based on the safety concept factor uses fixed representative values for each input parameter involved without considering the variability and uncertainty of the rock mass properties. Probabilistic analysis with the calculation of probability of failure instead of the factor of safety against failure is emerging in practice. Such analyses offer a more rational approach to quantify risk by incorporating uncertainty in the input variables and evaluating the probability of the failure of a system. In rock slope engineering, uncertainty and variability involve a large scatter of geo-structural data and varied geomechanical test results. There has been extensive reliability analysis of rock slope stability in the literature, and different methods of reliability are being employed for assessment of the probability of failure and the reliability of a slope. Probabilistic approaches include Monte Carlo simulation (MCS), the point estimate method (PEM), the response surface method (RSM), first- and second-order reliability methods (FORMs and SORMs), and the first-order second-moment method (FOSM). Although these methods may be complicated, they provide a more complete definition of risk. Probabilistic slope stability analysis is an option in most commercial software; however, the use of this method is not common in practice. This paper provides an overview of the literature on some of the main probabilistic reliability-based methods available for the design of the rock slope in open pit mining. To demonstrate its applicability, the paper investigates the stability of a rock slope in an open pit mine in the Goldfields region, Western Australia. Two different approaches were adopted: deterministic stability analysis using two-dimensional limit equilibrium and finite element shear strength reduction methods using SLIDE and RS2 software, respectively, and probabilistic analysis by applying the MCS and RSM methods in the limit equilibrium method. In this example, the slope stability analysis was performed using the Spencer method with Cuckoo search optimization to locate the critical slip surface. The results obtained were compared and commented on.

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