scholarly journals Comparison of Technical and Fundamental Analysis Trading Disciplines on Portfoilo Performance: Short and Long Term Backtest Analysis on Borsa İstanbul National Stock Indices

2021 ◽  
Vol 3 (3) ◽  
pp. 128-143
Author(s):  
Mustafa ÖZYEŞİL
Keyword(s):  
Abnormal Returns ◽  
Fundamental Analysis ◽  
Short Term ◽  
Risk And Return ◽  
Stock Indices ◽  
Technical And Fundamental Analysis ◽  
Increased Risk ◽  
Short And Long Term

The aim of this study is to comparatively analyze the backtest performances of trading disciplines applied in various portfolio baskets (Bist 30, 50 and 100) for different investment periods (short term – ytd and long term). According to the results of the analysis, it has been determined that in all trading disciplines, the investor has a higher return than the benchmark indicator in a 5-year term, that is, they can earn abnormal returns. Also, the return in the 5-year term is much higher than the 1-year and YTD returns. In the P / E & MA model, the Bist - 50 index in the 5-year period and the Bist - 100 index in the 1-year period provide the maximum return, while according to the P / E model, the Bist-30 and Bist -50 indices provide optimum returns in all maturity options. Based on these findings, it can be expected that if the trading disciplines used in this study are applied in a long term such as 5 years and on the portfolio basket consisting of Bist-30 and Bist-50 industrial stocks, it will maximize returns. In terms of risk and return, in YTD period, the sharpe and treynor ratios of the model portfolio formed in all trading disciplines except M /B trading discipline were lower than in 1 year in the 5-year investment period. This situation arose due to the increased risk of the portfolio as a result of the extended maturity and is in line with our expectations.

The contested significance of financial expertise in predicting short- and long-term risk and return on the stock market

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Magnus Jansson
Keyword(s):  
Experimental Design ◽  
Stock Market ◽  
Short Term ◽  
Forecast Horizon ◽  
Risk And Return ◽  
Stock Indices ◽  
Financial Expertise ◽  
Quasi Experimental ◽  
Short And Long Term

This study investigates whether the influence of financial expertise on stock investors’ ability to predict risk and return is contingent on the length of the forecast horizon. In a quasi-experimental design, stock market professionals (N1=63, N2=36), private shareholders (N1=155, N2=172) and students (N1=124, N2=90) twice provided their short- (3-month) and long-term (2-year) risk and return predictions on stock indices. The results show that in general, experts did not outperform students or private shareholders in their return predictions. However, the level of financial expertise positively influenced the accuracy of risk predictions. An interaction effect between financial expertise and the length of the forecast horizon suggests that more knowledgeable and experienced investors performed better in the long term compared to the short term than inexperienced investors did

scholarly journals Short- And Long-Term Wealth Gains From UK Takeovers: The Case Of The Financial Industry

2014 ◽  
Vol 30 (4) ◽  
pp. 1253 ◽  
Author(s):  
Sabri Boubaker ◽  
Taher Hamza
Keyword(s):  
Abnormal Returns ◽  
Wealth Effects ◽  
Financial Industry ◽  
Short Term ◽  
Long Run ◽  
Acquiring Firms ◽  
Short And Long Term ◽  
Long Term Performance ◽  
Term Performance

The present study analyzes the short- and long-term performance of UK financial acquiring firms by examining a sample of 40 takeovers over the period 19962007. In particular, it investigates i) the short- and long-term stock return performance of these acquiring firms and ii) the relation between their short-term abnormal return around the announcement date of takeovers and their long-term performance. The event study methodology shows that bidders experience significant short-term wealth destruction. In contrast, both the buy-and-hold abnormal returns and bidders portfolio return approaches indicate positive and significant wealth effects over the long run. Business cycle analysis shows that acquirers obtain significantly higher returns during downward financial market cycles. Furthermore, the results show that the market reaction to the bid announcement better predicts bidders long-term performance in the case of positive short-term abnormal returns.

scholarly journals Creation or Destruction of Value in Mergers? An Empirical Analysis on the Italian Stock Market

2012 ◽  
Vol 1 (1) ◽  
pp. 27-40
Author(s):  
Fabrizio Rossi
Keyword(s):  
Time Window ◽  
Abnormal Returns ◽  
Short Term ◽  
Combined Analysis ◽  
Cumulative Abnormal Returns ◽  
Short And Long Term ◽  
Study Methodology ◽  
Term Analysis ◽  
Event Study Methodology

The objective of this paper is to investigate whether mergers create value for shareholders in both the short and long term. For this purpose, 120 announcements of mergers that were registered in Italy during the period 1994-2006 among listed companies were examined. The short-term analysis was conducted using the event study methodology in order to estimate the cumulative abnormal returns (CARs) in the time window around the announcement date (-10, +10). In this work, the sample of 120 mergers was divided into two sub-samples: the first considers the mergers that were carried out in all sectors of the economy, and the second focuses only on bank mergers. From the results obtained it would appear that, while the sub-sample of all mergers registered a statistically significant value creation for the shareholders of both the bidder and target companies, values also confirmed by combined analysis, the second sub-sample registered negative values for bidder companies and positive values for target companies. Negative values also seem to be confirmed by the results of the combined analysis both at the date of announcement and throughout the entire period of observation. For the long-term analysis the Buy and Hold Abnormal Returns methodology (BHARs) was used, with which it was possible to observe the returns for three years. In the 36 months following the merger, the portfolio showed a significant destruction of value.

Abstract 1513: Short And Long-term Mortalitty In Chest-Pain Patients Ruling-in For Myocardial InfarctionI: STEMI Versus Non-STEMI In The Era Of A Troponin-based Definition For MI

Circulation ◽  
2007 ◽  
Vol 116 (suppl_16) ◽  
Author(s):  
Michael C Kontos ◽  
Thomas T Noel ◽  
Charlotte S Roberts ◽  
F Philip Anderson ◽  
James L Tatum ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Randomized Clinical Trials ◽  
Short Term ◽  
Serial Sampling ◽  
Increased Risk ◽  
Short Term Mortality ◽  
Short And Long Term ◽  
St Elevation ◽  
Pain Patients ◽  
Long Term Mortality

Background: Several randomized clinical trials have demonstrated that patients (pts) with ST Elevation myocardial infarction (STEMI) have a higher short-term mortality than those with non-STEMI, but that long-term mortality is similar. More recent studies suggest that pts who are troponin positive (TnI+), but not meeting the older CKMB criteria for MI may also be at increased risk. However, there is little data examining outcomes differentiating these 3 MI populations using the current ACC/ESC definition for MI selected from a heterogeneous cohort of pts admitted from the emergency department. Methods: Consecutive pts admitted for exclusion of myocardial ischemia underwent serial sampling of CK, CKMB, and TnI. MI was defined using ACC/ESC criteria. Pts were separated into 3 groups: STEMI (n=363; 22%), non-STEMI pts who met the prior CKMB criteria for MI (n=743; 46%), and non-STEMI pts who had MI based on TnI (+) alone (n=512; 32%) without meeting CKMB MI criteria. Demographic and clinical variables were compared among the three cohorts of patients, and 30 day and 1 year mortality were assessed. Results : Over a 6 year period, 1,618 pts were diagnosed with MI. Co-morbidities and outcomes are shown below in the table . Variables associated with worse outcomes were significantly more common in both groups of non-STEMI pts, particularly in the TnI (+) only pts. Thirty day mortality was similar and not significantly different among the 3 cohorts. However, at 1 year, mortality was a significant 68% higher in the 2 non-STEMI groups, despite having significantly lower peak CK (median 123 U/L for TnI (+) pts and 414 U/L for CKMB MI pts vs 1400 U/L for STEMI pts) and CKMB values (median 4 ng/ml for TnI (+) pts and 29 ng/ml for CKMB MI pts vs 140 ng/ml for STEMI pts) compared to STEMI pts. Conclusions : All MI pts had similar 30 day mortality; however, at 1 yr pts with non-STEMI had a substantially increased mortality compared to STEMI pts.

scholarly journals Health consequences of short- and long-term postmenopausal hormone therapy

1996 ◽  
Vol 42 (8) ◽  
pp. 1342-1344 ◽  
Author(s):  
N S Weiss
Keyword(s):  
Breast Cancer ◽  
Myocardial Infarction ◽  
Extended Period ◽  
Postmenopausal Hormone Therapy ◽  
Short Term ◽  
Increased Risk ◽  
Short And Long Term ◽  
Hormone Use ◽  
Risk Of Cancer

Abstract Some women take an estrogen preparation for as long as several years to ease symptoms of the menopause. Such women appear to have little or no alteration in their risk of endometrial cancer, especially if they are also taking a progestogen, and no alteration in their risk of breast cancer. Similarly, the incidence of fractures is unaffected by relatively short-term hormone use. The risk of ischemic heart disease also is reduced among women who currently take estrogens (with or without a progestogen), but the influence of duration of use on this association is uncertain. Postmenopausal women who take estrogens for an extended period of time (e.g., a decade or more) incur a sharply increased risk of cancer of the endometrium. This is largely abated by use of a progestogen for at least 10 days per month. Such long-term estrogen use, whether accompanied by a progestogen or not, may increase the risk of breast cancer slightly, but this is an area of great controversy, at present unresolved. The incidence of both myocardial infarction and fracture is substantially reduced in long-term users of menopausal hormones.

Perioperative atrial fibrillation and risk of stroke after cardiac surgery: a systematic review and meta-analysis

2020 ◽  
Vol 41 (Supplement_2) ◽  
Author(s):  
M.K Wang ◽  
P Chen ◽  
P Meyre ◽  
M.Z Ali ◽  
R Heo ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Atrial Fibrillation ◽  
Systematic Review ◽  
Cardiac Surgery ◽  
Stroke Risk ◽  
Meta Analysis ◽  
Short Term ◽  
Increased Risk ◽  
Short And Long Term ◽  
New Onset

Abstract Background Perioperative atrial fibrillation (POAF) after cardiac surgery has been associated with an increased risk of stroke. However, many previous studies have not systematically excluded patients with pre-existing AF. As such, the association between new-onset POAF and stroke risk has not been well established. Purpose To perform a systematic review and meta-analysis on the short and long-term risks of stroke in patients experiencing new-onset POAF after cardiac surgery. Methods We searched MEDLINE, EMBASE, and the Cochrane Library databases for studies comparing the risk of stroke in patients with versus without new-onset POAF after cardiac surgery. Studies were included in our review if they enrolled ≥100 patients and defined POAF as new-onset AF in patients with no history of preoperative AF. Data were independently extracted in duplicate. The quality of studies was assessed using the Newcastle Ottawa Scale. Random-effects meta-analysis was used to calculate summary risk ratios. Short-term stroke risk was calculated using events occurring either in-hospital or ≤30 days after surgery, and long-term risk was calculated using events occurring >30 days after surgery. Results After reviewing 11,791 citations, 46 studies met the inclusion criteria. These studies included 364,822 patients, of which 76,388 (20.9%) developed new-onset POAF. The incidence of stroke was higher among patients with POAF versus no POAF (n=44 studies; incidence 2.76% vs. 1.53%; relative risk (RR) 1.91, 95% CI 1.65–2.23; I2 = 78%). A sensitivity analysis of high-quality studies alone yielded similar results (n=9 studies; RR 1.74, 95% CI 1.31–2.30; I2 = 88%). Patients with POAF had a higher incidence of stroke both in the short-term (n=35 studies; 2.71% vs. 1.36%; RR 2.13, 95% CI 1.81–2.51; I2 = 69%) and long-term (n=20 studies; 1.6 vs. 1.0 per 100 patient-years; RR 1.39, 95% CI 1.24–1.57; I2 = 27%). The risk of stroke was increased in POAF patients across all types of cardiac surgery performed, including isolated CABG (n=19 studies; RR 1.93, 95% CI 1.60–2.32; I2 = 62%), isolated transcatheter aortic valve implantation (n=7 studies; RR 1.86, 95% CI 1.32–2.63; I2 = 0%), and studies including multiple procedure types (n=16 studies; RR 1.90, 95% CI 1.44–2.51; I2 = 89%). Conclusion New-onset POAF after cardiac surgery is associated with an increased risk of stroke, both in the short and long term. The absolute risk difference is small, and randomized trials are needed to assess the efficacy and safety of treatment interventions in this patient population. Funding Acknowledgement Type of funding source: None

scholarly journals Maternal Vaginal Ureaplasma spp. Colonization in Early Pregnancy Is Associated with Adverse Short- and Long-Term Outcome of Very Preterm Infants

Children ◽  
2021 ◽  
Vol 8 (4) ◽  
pp. 276
Author(s):  
Judith Rittenschober-Böhm ◽  
Tanja Habermüller ◽  
Thomas Waldhoer ◽  
Renate Fuiko ◽  
Stefan M. Schulz ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Preterm Infants ◽  
Early Pregnancy ◽  
Short Term ◽  
Term Outcome ◽  
Long Term Outcome ◽  
Very Preterm Infants ◽  
Very Preterm ◽  
Vaginal Colonization ◽  
Short And Long Term

Vaginal colonization with Ureaplasma (U.) spp. has been shown to be associated with adverse pregnancy outcome; however, data on neonatal outcome are scarce. The aim of the study was to investigate whether maternal vaginal colonization with U. spp. in early pregnancy represents a risk factor for adverse short- or long-term outcome of preterm infants. Previously, 4330 pregnant women were enrolled in an observational multicenter study, analyzing the association between vaginal U. spp. colonization and spontaneous preterm birth. U. spp. colonization was diagnosed via PCR analysis from vaginal swabs. For this study, data on short-term outcome were collected from medical records and long-term outcome was examined via Bayley Scales of Infant Development at 24 months adjusted age. Two-hundred-and-thirty-eight children were born <33 weeks gestational age. After exclusion due to asphyxia, malformations, and lost-to-follow-up, data on short-term and long-term outcome were available from 222 and 92 infants, respectively. Results show a significant association between vaginal U. spp. colonization and severe intraventricular hemorrhage (10.4% vs. 2.6%, p = 0.03), retinopathy of prematurity (21.7% vs. 10.3%, p = 0.03), and adverse psychomotor outcome (24.3% vs. 1.8%, OR 13.154, 95%CI 1.6,110.2, p = 0.005). The data suggest an association between vaginal U. spp. colonization in early pregnancy and adverse short- and long-term outcome of very preterm infants.

scholarly journals Spatio-temporal associations of air pollutant concentrations, GP respiratory consultations and respiratory inhaler prescriptions: a 5-year study of primary care in the borough of Lambeth, South London

2021 ◽  
Vol 20 (1) ◽  
Author(s):  
Mark Ashworth ◽  
◽  
Antonis Analitis ◽  
David Whitney ◽  
Evangelia Samoli ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Primary Care ◽  
Negative Binomial ◽  
Hospital Admissions ◽  
Air Pollutant ◽  
Respiratory Morbidity ◽  
Short Term ◽  
Short Term Exposure ◽  
Short And Long Term ◽  
Spatio Temporal

Abstract Background Although the associations of outdoor air pollution exposure with mortality and hospital admissions are well established, few previous studies have reported on primary care clinical and prescribing data. We assessed the associations of short and long-term pollutant exposures with General Practitioner respiratory consultations and inhaler prescriptions. Methods Daily primary care data, for 2009–2013, were obtained from Lambeth DataNet (LDN), an anonymised dataset containing coded data from all patients (1.2 million) registered at general practices in Lambeth, an inner-city south London borough. Counts of respiratory consultations and inhaler prescriptions by day and Lower Super Output Area (LSOA) of residence were constructed. We developed models for predicting daily PM2.5, PM10, NO2 and O3 per LSOA. We used spatio-temporal mixed effects zero inflated negative binomial models to investigate the simultaneous short- and long-term effects of exposure to pollutants on the number of events. Results The mean concentrations of NO2, PM10, PM2.5 and O3 over the study period were 50.7, 21.2, 15.6, and 49.9 μg/m3 respectively, with all pollutants except NO2 having much larger temporal rather than spatial variability. Following short-term exposure increases to PM10, NO2 and PM2.5 the number of consultations and inhaler prescriptions were found to increase, especially for PM10 exposure in children which was associated with increases in daily respiratory consultations of 3.4% and inhaler prescriptions of 0.8%, per PM10 interquartile range (IQR) increase. Associations further increased after adjustment for weekly average exposures, rising to 6.1 and 1.2%, respectively, for weekly average PM10 exposure. In contrast, a short-term increase in O3 exposure was associated with decreased number of respiratory consultations. No association was found between long-term exposures to PM10, PM2.5 and NO2 and number of respiratory consultations. Long-term exposure to NO2 was associated with an increase (8%) in preventer inhaler prescriptions only. Conclusions We found increases in the daily number of GP respiratory consultations and inhaler prescriptions following short-term increases in exposure to NO2, PM10 and PM2.5. These associations are more pronounced in children and persist for at least a week. The association with long term exposure to NO2 and preventer inhaler prescriptions indicates likely increased chronic respiratory morbidity.

scholarly journals Paleolithic Diet—Effect on the Health Status and Performance of Athletes?

Nutrients ◽  
2021 ◽  
Vol 13 (3) ◽  
pp. 1019
Author(s):  
Barbara Frączek ◽  
Aleksandra Pięta ◽  
Adrian Burda ◽  
Paulina Mazur-Kurach ◽  
Florentyna Tyrała
Keyword(s):  
Blood Pressure ◽  
Body Mass ◽  
Positive Impact ◽  
Model Assessment ◽  
Paleolithic Diet ◽  
Short Term ◽  
Positive Effects ◽  
Short And Long Term ◽  
The Impact

The aim of this meta-analysis was to review the impact of a Paleolithic diet (PD) on selected health indicators (body composition, lipid profile, blood pressure, and carbohydrate metabolism) in the short and long term of nutrition intervention in healthy and unhealthy adults. A systematic review of randomized controlled trials of 21 full-text original human studies was conducted. Both the PD and a variety of healthy diets (control diets (CDs)) caused reduction in anthropometric parameters, both in the short and long term. For many indicators, such as weight (body mass (BM)), body mass index (BMI), and waist circumference (WC), impact was stronger and especially found in the short term. All diets caused a decrease in total cholesterol (TC), low-density lipoprotein cholesterol (LDL-C), and triglycerides (TG), albeit the impact of PD was stronger. Among long-term studies, only PD cased a decline in TC and LDL-C. Impact on blood pressure was observed mainly in the short term. PD caused a decrease in fasting plasma (fP) glucose, fP insulin, and homeostasis model assessment of insulin resistance (HOMA-IR) and glycated hemoglobin (HbA1c) in the short run, contrary to CD. In the long term, only PD caused a decrease in fP glucose and fP insulin. Lower positive impact of PD on performance was observed in the group without exercise. Positive effects of the PD on health and the lack of experiments among professional athletes require longer-term interventions to determine the effect of the Paleo diet on athletic performance.

scholarly journals Induction of cell wall phenolic monomers as part of direct defense response in maize to pink stem borer (Sesamia inferens Walker) and non-insect interactions

2021 ◽  
Vol 11 (1) ◽  
Author(s):  
P. Lakshmi Soujanya ◽  
J. C. Sekhar ◽  
C. V. Ratnavathi ◽  
Chikkappa G. Karjagi ◽  
E. Shobha ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Induced Defense ◽  
Stem Borer ◽  
Defense Responses ◽  
Short Term ◽  
Mechanical Wounding ◽  
Leaf Tissues ◽  
Short And Long Term ◽  
Insect Interactions ◽  
Induced Defense Responses

AbstractPink stem borer (PSB) causes considerable yield losses to maize. Plant–insect interactions have significant implications for sustainable pest management. The present study demonstrated that PSB feeding, mechanical wounding, a combination of mechanical wounding and PSB regurgitation and exogenous application of methyl jasmonate have induced phenolic compound mediated defense responses both at short term (within 2 days of treatment) and long term (in 15 days of treatment) in leaf and stalk tissues of maize. The quantification of two major defense related phenolic compounds namely p-Coumaric acid (p-CA) and ferulic acid (FA) was carried out through ultra-fast liquid chromatography (UFLC) at 2 and 15 days after imposing the above treatments. The p-CA content induced in leaf tissues of maize genotypes were intrinsically higher when challenged by PSB attack at V3 and V6 stages in short- and long-term responses. Higher p-CA content was observed in stalk tissues upon wounding and regurgitation in short- and long-term responses at V3 and V6 stages. Significant accumulation of FA content was also observed in leaf tissues in response to PSB feeding at V3 stage in long-term response while at V6 stage it was observed both in short- and long-term responses. In stalk tissues, methyl jasmonate induced higher FA content in short-term response at V3 stage. However, at V6 stage PSB feeding induced FA accumulation in the short-term while, wounding and regurgitation treatment-induced defense responses in the long-term. In general, the resistant (DMRE 63, CM 500) and moderately resistant genotypes (WNZ ExoticPool) accumulated significantly higher contents of p-CA and FA content than susceptible ones (CM 202, BML 6) in most of the cases. The study indicates that phenolic mediated defense responses in maize are induced by PSB attack followed by wounding and regurgitation compared to the other induced treatments. Furthermore, the study confirmed that induced defense responses vary with plant genotype, stage of crop growth, plant tissue and short and long-term responses. The results of the study suggested that the Phenolic acids i.e. p-CA and FA may contribute to maize resistance mechanisms in the maize-PSB interaction system.

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