A Stochastic Analysis of Vietnam Bilateral Trade Efficiency

2018 ◽  
pp. 50-64
Author(s):  
Bao Dinh Ho ◽  
Minh Van Pham ◽  
Thai Vinh Pham ◽  
Hieu Nhu Truong
Keyword(s):  
Gravity Model ◽  
Stochastic Analysis ◽  
Bilateral Trade ◽  
Stochastic Frontier ◽  
Trade Data ◽  
Empirical Results ◽  
Trade Performance ◽  
Trade Potential ◽  
The Impact ◽  
Potential Level

This paper used a stochastic frontier gravity model to evaluate the bilateral trade efficiency of Vietnam using the bilateral trade data of Vietnam’s main trade counterparts in the period 2000- 2015. Trade efficiency means the actual trade in comparison with the trade potential. Empirical results show that Vietnam’s trade performance was significantly lower than the potential level. Joining the WTO did not improve trade efficiency. The impact of FTAs on exploiting bilateral trade potential is heterogeneous across counterparts.

scholarly journals Effect of exchange rate uncertainty on bilateral trade performance in SAARC countries: a gravity model analysis

2020 ◽  
Vol ahead-of-print (ahead-of-print) ◽  
Author(s):  
Banna Banik ◽  
Chandan Kumar Roy
Keyword(s):  
Exchange Rate ◽  
Panel Data ◽  
Gravity Model ◽  
Bilateral Trade ◽  
Exchange Rate Volatility ◽  
Exchange Rate Uncertainty ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Estimation Techniques ◽  
Trade Performance ◽  
The Impact

PurposeExchange rate uncertainty leads to an indecisive environment for imports and exports that would condense international trade, foreign direct investment, trade earnings, trade volumes, economic growth and welfare. This study aims to examine, empirically, the effect of exchange rate uncertainty on bilateral trade performance, focusing on eight SAARC member economies using the popular modified gravity model of trade.Design/methodology/approachThe paper includes eight SAARC members – Afghanistan, Bangladesh, Bhutan, Maldives, Nepal, Pakistan and Sri Lanka panel data set over the period 2005–2018. The authors consider both standardized value (standard deviation) and conditional variance model to determine volatility of exchange rate. Primarily, ordinary least squares, random effects and fixed effects estimation techniques are employed to investigate the impact of exchange rate volatility. Endogeneity and robustness of the findings have been tested using the simultaneity-adjusted model and dynamic panel data two-step system GMM estimation techniques.FindingsEmpirical findings endorse the view that exchange rate volatility lowers trade flows in the SAARC regions. However, this adverse effect of exchange rate uncertainty on trade is pretty small. The negative correlation between exchange rate volatility and bilateral trade remains consistent and significant after controlling of simultaneous causality, autocorrelation, year effects, country-pair heterogeneity and endogeneity irrespective of panel data estimation techniques and different measures of volatility.Originality/valueThe present paper is original work.

scholarly journals Research on the Efficiency and Potential of China's Trade with South Asian Countries-Based on the Stochastic Frontier Gravity Model

2021 ◽  
Vol 96 ◽  
pp. 01010
Author(s):  
Yifan Lei ◽  
Cuiping Li
Keyword(s):  
Gravity Model ◽  
Development Strategy ◽  
South Asian ◽  
Bilateral Trade ◽  
Positive Impact ◽  
Stochastic Frontier ◽  
Trade Agreement ◽  
Asian Countries ◽  
Empirical Results ◽  
Low Efficiency

In the context of COVID-19, international trade has been strongly impacted, and it is of great significance to accelerate trade exchanges with countries along the "Belt and Road" to achieve trade transformation. This paper uses the time-varying stochastic frontier gravity model to measure trade efficiency based on the data of China and South Asia from 2000 to 2019. The empirical results show that economic scale and population have a positive impact on trade. China's GDP growth is not conducive to the growth of bilateral trade volume, and distance is no longer a factor hindering trade. Trade inefficiency has a great impact on trade. Among them, whether to sign a free trade agreement, the quality of port infrastructure, the simple average tax rate of all products, and political risks have a more significant impact on the trade coefficient. The trade potential between China and South Asian countries is very large and different countries are uneven. China has high trade efficiency with Sri Lanka, Pakistan, India, and Bangladesh, while trade with Bhutan has extremely low efficiency, and trade with Maldives and Nepal is average. Based on the above empirical results and combined with the current epidemic situation, the corresponding conclusions and countermeasures are put forward. For example, exporters should continue to innovate to promote trade transformation and diversified development; combine the western development strategy to promote trade and South Asian exchanges; reduce trade tariff barriers between the two countries; Jointly maintain the security and political situation of the two countries.

scholarly journals An Empirical Study of China-Australia Bilateral Trade Potential Based on Gravity Model

2020 ◽  
Vol 6 (3) ◽  
pp. p51
Author(s):  
Jun Chen ◽  
Chenyang Zhao ◽  
Xinyi Wang ◽  
Kaikai Liu
Keyword(s):  
Gravity Model ◽  
Trade Balance ◽  
Bilateral Trade ◽  
Trade Integration ◽  
Upward Trend ◽  
Trade Data ◽  
Potential Analysis ◽  
Trade Relations ◽  
Primary Products ◽  
Trade Potential

Based on the use of trade integration index and gravity model, this paper uses the bilateral goods trade data between China and Australia from 2000 to 2019 to analyze the trade status, trade complementarity and trade potential between China and Australia. The results of the study show that the trade scale, trade complementarity and trade potential between China and Australia are constantly expanding. However, from the perspective of trade balance, China has always been in the position of a deficit country, and the deficit is getting larger and larger, especially in terms of primary products. Judging from the trade integration index, China’s trade integration with Australia generally shows an upward trend, indicating that the trade dependence between China and Australia is gradually increasing. Judging from the results of the trade potential analysis, the trade potential between the two countries has not been fully realized, and there is still much room for improvement in bilateral trade relations.

scholarly journals An empirical analysis of Pakistan’s bilateral trade and trade potential with China: A gravity model approach

2018 ◽  
Vol 6 (1) ◽  
pp. 1504409 ◽  
Author(s):  
Muhammad Saqib Irshad ◽  
Qi Xin ◽  
Zhang Hui ◽  
Hamza Arshad ◽  
Duncan Watson
Keyword(s):  
Gravity Model ◽  
Empirical Analysis ◽  
Bilateral Trade ◽  
Trade Potential ◽  
Model Approach

scholarly journals The Impact of Structure Similarity of Nontariff Measures on Agricultural Trade

2020 ◽  
Vol 12 (24) ◽  
pp. 10545
Author(s):  
Sung Ju Cho ◽  
Saera Oh ◽  
Sang Hyeon Lee
Keyword(s):  
Sustainable Development ◽  
Gravity Model ◽  
Bilateral Trade ◽  
Agricultural Trade ◽  
Technical Barriers To Trade ◽  
Structure Similarity ◽  
Regulatory Harmonization ◽  
Phytosanitary Measures ◽  
Negative Impacts ◽  
The Impact

This study quantifies the structure similarity of nontariff measures between countries and estimates its impact on bilateral agricultural trade using a structural gravity model. The findings show that a similar structure of technical barriers to trade (TBT) between countries is likely to expand their bilateral trade. However, a similar structure of sanitary and phytosanitary measures (SPS) is shown to have negative impacts on agricultural trade. We also discuss the effects of regulatory harmonization on sustainable development.

India’s Trade Potential and Free Trade Agreements: A Stochastic Frontier Gravity Approach

2017 ◽  
Vol 17 (1) ◽  
pp. 20160074 ◽  
Author(s):  
Surender Kumar ◽  
Prerna Prabhakar
Keyword(s):  
Free Trade ◽  
South Asian ◽  
Stochastic Frontier ◽  
Free Trade Agreements ◽  
Trade Agreement ◽  
Trade Agreements ◽  
Regulatory Quality ◽  
Trading Partners ◽  
Trade Potential ◽  
The Impact

This paper analyses the role of Free Trade Agreements in determining export and import efficiency levels in India using stochastic frontier version of gravity model. We estimate the impact of selected FTAs of India (its bilateral FTAs, FTA with ASEAN and South Asian FTA) and regulatory quality on the efficiency of exports and imports over the period of 2000–2014. The results indicate that India’s bilateral FTAs and its FTA with the ASEAN group help in improving the export and import efficiency respectively. However, the South Asian Free Trade Agreement is statistically insignificant for India’s export and import efficiency. The results also highlight importance of trading partners’ regulatory quality for enhancing the India’s trade efficiency and note that the impacts of regulatory quality are non-monotonic.

Exploiting the Trade Potential from Integration: Analysing the Impact of Free Trade Agreements between ASEAN and India and China

China Report ◽  
2018 ◽  
Vol 54 (4) ◽  
pp. 442-466 ◽  
Author(s):  
Nguyen Xuan Trung ◽  
Nguyen Duc Hung ◽  
Nguyen Thi Hien
Keyword(s):  
Free Trade ◽  
Free Trade Agreement ◽  
Bilateral Trade ◽  
Positive Impact ◽  
Stochastic Frontier ◽  
Free Trade Agreements ◽  
Trade Agreement ◽  
Trade Agreements ◽  
The Impact ◽  
Stochastic Frontier Estimation

In this article, we use the technique of stochastic frontier estimation for the structural gravity model to analyse Vietnam’s bilateral trade and evaluate its exploitation of trade efficiency before and after its free trade agreements (FTAs) with China and India entered into force. The results from Vietnam’s bilateral trade data between 2000 and 2015 show that the ASEAN–India Free Trade Agreement (AIFTA) has had a positive impact on Vietnam’s bilateral trade flows while we found a remarkably negative effect on Vietnam’s exports but not imports after the entry into force of the ASEAN-China Free Trade Agreement (ACFTA). In addition, Vietnam’s participation in the regional trade agreements (RTAs) and FTAs has significantly reduced the costs of trade over time, and these impacts on Vietnam’s imports are much higher than those on Vietnam's exports.

scholarly journals CHILEAN TRADE 1880-1930: A COMMENT ON THE SOURCES FOR THE AGE OF EXPORTS

2018 ◽  
Vol 36 (3) ◽  
pp. 481-500
Author(s):  
Marc Badia-Miró ◽  
José Díaz-Bahamonde
Keyword(s):  
Foreign Trade ◽  
Growth Process ◽  
Bilateral Trade ◽  
Research Note ◽  
Trade Data ◽  
Trade Performance ◽  
Trade Prices

AbstractThis research note discusses the accuracy of the main sources used to study the foreign sector during the export-led growth process in Chile. Chilean foreign trade statistics are available for the period under analysis (1850-1930) and offered a good overview of products exported and imported. Bilateral trade data are also available providing information of exports and imports by origin and destiny. Although more research is needed on trade prices, we conclude that Chilean statistics are reliable and provide a way for understanding the export-led growth in Chile and the trade performance of the Chilean partners.

scholarly journals ECONOMIC SHOCKS ON PARTNERS’ TRADE; AFRICA AND ASEAN ON CHINA

2021 ◽  
pp. 11-24
Author(s):  
Emmanuel Yamoah Cobbold ◽  
Dan Owusu
Keyword(s):  
Gravity Model ◽  
Bilateral Trade ◽  
Positive Impact ◽  
Trade Openness ◽  
Economic Shocks ◽  
Macroeconomic Shocks ◽  
The World ◽  
Per Capita ◽  
The Impact ◽  
Trade Partners

This research studies the impact of macroeconomic shocks from African and the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN) on China’s bilateral trade with them. Data on (GDP) per capita, FDI, inflation, unemployment rates, and trade openness (TO) of China’s African and ASEAN partners were sourced from the World Bank whilst imports and exports data were from the world integrated trade solutions (WITS). It uses the gravity model as a basis and the panel corrected standard errors (PCSE) as well as multivariate regression estimators. The findings reveal that per capita of China’s partners have a strong positive impact on trade with them. Trade openness is reported to increase China’s imports but reduce exports to these partners. Further, an increase in FDI inflows to China’s trade partners leads to an increase in both imports and exports of China. KEYWORDS: Economic shocks, international trade, China, Africa, ASEAN, gravity model

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