scholarly journals An Empirical Study of China-Australia Bilateral Trade Potential Based on Gravity Model

2020 ◽  
Vol 6 (3) ◽  
pp. p51
Author(s):  
Jun Chen ◽  
Chenyang Zhao ◽  
Xinyi Wang ◽  
Kaikai Liu
Keyword(s):  
Gravity Model ◽  
Trade Balance ◽  
Bilateral Trade ◽  
Trade Integration ◽  
Upward Trend ◽  
Trade Data ◽  
Potential Analysis ◽  
Trade Relations ◽  
Primary Products ◽  
Trade Potential

Based on the use of trade integration index and gravity model, this paper uses the bilateral goods trade data between China and Australia from 2000 to 2019 to analyze the trade status, trade complementarity and trade potential between China and Australia. The results of the study show that the trade scale, trade complementarity and trade potential between China and Australia are constantly expanding. However, from the perspective of trade balance, China has always been in the position of a deficit country, and the deficit is getting larger and larger, especially in terms of primary products. Judging from the trade integration index, China’s trade integration with Australia generally shows an upward trend, indicating that the trade dependence between China and Australia is gradually increasing. Judging from the results of the trade potential analysis, the trade potential between the two countries has not been fully realized, and there is still much room for improvement in bilateral trade relations.

scholarly journals An analysis of trade cooperation: Central region in China and ASEAN

PLoS ONE ◽  
2021 ◽  
Vol 16 (12) ◽  
pp. e0261270
Author(s):  
Roni Bhowmik ◽  
Yuhua Zhu ◽  
Kuo Gao
Keyword(s):  
Economic Development ◽  
Central Region ◽  
Bilateral Trade ◽  
The Philippines ◽  
Trade Integration ◽  
Chinese Market ◽  
Positive Role ◽  
Trade Relations ◽  
Trade Potential ◽  
Asean Countries

China-ASEAN are the two huge markets in trade world, they can bring out greater dynamism from within their economies and contribute to regional economic development. This study explores the present situation on the trade between the Central region of China and ASEAN through empirical assessment and try to find the potential effects and trade flows between them. Firstly, we analysis the trade integration index, HM index, explicit comparative advantage index, and trade complementarity index. Finally, we use the gravity model of international trade and data on 2006–2018. The bilateral trade relations between the central region and ASEAN are getting closer, but the central region has not yet become the major trade area of ASEAN countries in the Chinese market. The bilateral economic development level plays a positive role in promoting the export trade between the Central region and ASEAN, while the bilateral distance plays a negative role in difficulty. The empirical results show that trade potential between the Central region and Indonesia and the Philippines is huge, and there is still opportunity for the development of the trade potential with Thailand. The trade prospective with Malaysia, Singapore and Vietnam is limited, and new approaches need to be developed to achieve further trade cooperation.

A Stochastic Analysis of Vietnam Bilateral Trade Efficiency

2018 ◽  
pp. 50-64
Author(s):  
Bao Dinh Ho ◽  
Minh Van Pham ◽  
Thai Vinh Pham ◽  
Hieu Nhu Truong
Keyword(s):  
Gravity Model ◽  
Stochastic Analysis ◽  
Bilateral Trade ◽  
Stochastic Frontier ◽  
Trade Data ◽  
Empirical Results ◽  
Trade Performance ◽  
Trade Potential ◽  
The Impact ◽  
Potential Level

This paper used a stochastic frontier gravity model to evaluate the bilateral trade efficiency of Vietnam using the bilateral trade data of Vietnam’s main trade counterparts in the period 2000- 2015. Trade efficiency means the actual trade in comparison with the trade potential. Empirical results show that Vietnam’s trade performance was significantly lower than the potential level. Joining the WTO did not improve trade efficiency. The impact of FTAs on exploiting bilateral trade potential is heterogeneous across counterparts.

scholarly journals An empirical analysis of Pakistan’s bilateral trade and trade potential with China: A gravity model approach

2018 ◽  
Vol 6 (1) ◽  
pp. 1504409 ◽  
Author(s):  
Muhammad Saqib Irshad ◽  
Qi Xin ◽  
Zhang Hui ◽  
Hamza Arshad ◽  
Duncan Watson
Keyword(s):  
Gravity Model ◽  
Empirical Analysis ◽  
Bilateral Trade ◽  
Trade Potential ◽  
Model Approach

scholarly journals Regional Integration and Trade in Agrifood Products: Evidence from the East African Community

2015 ◽  
Vol 11 (3) ◽  
pp. 212-246
Author(s):  
Francis Ejones
Keyword(s):  
Regional Integration ◽  
Bilateral Trade ◽  
Estimation Method ◽  
Trade Agreement ◽  
Trade Integration ◽  
East African ◽  
East African Community ◽  
Trade Relations ◽  
Extended Gravity ◽  
The Impact

This study examines the postulation that trade liberalization (regional integration) policies of LDCs normally undermine their presumed impact. The study is based on the experience of EAC trade agreement. It adopts the extended gravity model, to analyze the impact of this regional integration on food item. The model includes 168 countries and is estimated with panel data over the period 1988 – 2009. The Poisson estimation method took into account unobserved trade data characteristics of the bilateral trade relations. The results show that regional trade integration increased exports, normally at the expense of exports and welfare of non-members, and these exports were more reflective of food exports growth. The same has not been true for intra-bloc exports of food although the sector experienced an increase in exports resulting from the implementation of a trade agreement. The intra-bloc results are consistent with the structural rigidities of the exporting EAC Countries.    

scholarly journals A Panel Analysis of Trade Gravity between Pakistan and South Asian Countries

2020 ◽  
Vol 23 (4) ◽  
pp. 187-207
Author(s):  
Waheed Ullah Jan ◽  
Mahmood Shah
Keyword(s):  
Gravity Model ◽  
South Asian ◽  
Bilateral Trade ◽  
Negative Impact ◽  
Positive Impact ◽  
Least Square ◽  
Asian Countries ◽  
Trade Patterns ◽  
Data Set ◽  
Trade Relations

This paper attempts to examine Pakistan’s trade patterns with South Asian countries by using a gravity model of trade. The main objective of the study is to quantify the long‑run impacts of gravity variables. To achieve this objective, a panel data set for the period 2003 to 2017 has been used. Based on the mixed evidence of the results of panel unit root tests, Pooled Mean Group (PMG) and Panel Dynamic Ordinary Least Square (DOLS) techniques are applied. The outcome of the PMG and Panel DOLS models justifies the theoretical background of the gravity model and suggests that all the basic gravity variables haveusual signs. The RGDPs and population of both Pakistan and the partner country have a positive impact on their bilateral trade. On the other hand, the distance between the two trading countries and the exchange rate have a negative impact on bilateral trade.The uniqueness of this study is that it measures the impacts of qualitative variables along with basic gravity variables. Language similarities and common borders have a positive impact on bilateral trade. Pakistan has borders with India and Afghanistan, but their trade relations are not worth mentioning. The military conflicts between Pakistan and India, and the political suspicions between Pakistan and Afghanistan hinder their trade relations.

scholarly journals Pakistan-EU Commodity Trade: Is there Evidence of J-Curve Effect?

2017 ◽  
Vol 17 (2) ◽  
pp. 20160067 ◽  
Author(s):  
Mohsen Bahmani-Oskooee ◽  
Javed Iqbal ◽  
Muhammad Muzammil
Keyword(s):  
Trade Balance ◽  
Bilateral Trade ◽  
Commodity Trade ◽  
Trade Data ◽  
Currency Depreciation ◽  
Long Run ◽  
J Curve ◽  
Curve Effect ◽  
Short Run ◽  
Trade Partners

In investigating the short run and the long run impact of currency depreciation on Pakistan’s trade balance, previous studies have either relied on using bilateral trade data between Pakistan and her trade partners or between Pakistan and the rest of the world and have found not much support for successful depreciation. Suspecting that these studies may suffer from aggregation bias, in this paper we use disaggregated trade data at commodity level from 77 industries that trade between Pakistan and EU. While we find short-run significant effects in 22 industries, these effects do not last into the long run in most industries. Most of the affected industries are found to be small, as measured by their trade shares.

Gravity's Rainbow: A dynamic latent space model for the world trade network

2013 ◽  
Vol 1 (1) ◽  
pp. 95-118 ◽  
Author(s):  
MICHAEL D. WARD ◽  
JOHN S. AHLQUIST ◽  
ARTURAS ROZENAS
Keyword(s):  
International Trade ◽  
Gravity Model ◽  
Bilateral Trade ◽  
Directed Graphs ◽  
Gravity Models ◽  
Model Specification ◽  
Trade Data ◽  
Latent Space ◽  
Out Of Sample ◽  
The Usa

AbstractThe gravity model, long the empirical workhorse for modeling international trade, ignores network dependencies in bilateral trade data, instead assuming that dyadic trade is independent, conditional on a hierarchy of covariates over country, time, and dyad. We argue that there are theoretical as well as empirical reasons to expect network dependencies in international trade. Consequently, standard gravity models are empirically inadequate. We combine a gravity model specification with “latent space” networks to develop a dynamic mixture model for real-valued directed graphs. The model simultaneously incorporates network dependencies in both trade incidence and trade volumes. We estimate this model using bilateral trade data from 1990 to 2008. The model substantially outperforms standard accounts in terms of both in- and out-of-sample predictive heuristics. We illustrate the model's usefulness by tracking trading propensities between the USA and China.

scholarly journals The impact of preferential trade agreements on bilateral trade: A structural gravity model analysis

PLoS ONE ◽  
2021 ◽  
Vol 16 (3) ◽  
pp. e0249118
Author(s):  
Xing Yao ◽  
Yongzhong Zhang ◽  
Rizwana Yasmeen ◽  
Zhen Cai
Keyword(s):  
Gravity Model ◽  
Bilateral Trade ◽  
Market Access ◽  
Trade Agreements ◽  
Preferential Trade Agreements ◽  
Trade Integration ◽  
Preferential Trade ◽  
Middle Income ◽  
Wide Range ◽  
The Impact

Trade agreements are thought to raise trade integration, but existing preferential trade agreements (PTAs) are insufficient in measuring market access of products. This study develops a product-based coverage index of PTAs using the World Trade Organization (WTO) preferential trade agreements and calculates bilateral trade measures using the EORA multi-regional input-output (MRIO) tables covering 189 countries worldwide over the period 1990–2015; the structural gravity model is employed to test how PTAs affect bilateral trade. Our findings show that countries sharing a common PTA could boost the trade volume compared to those without PTAs, supporting the trade creation effect. However, the trade promotion effect of the product-based coverage index of PTAs is significant only if the member countries are low-and middle-income countries. Further, the wide range of product liberalization brought by PTAs can promote global production networks by stimulating the trade of intermediate goods. Our results are important for understanding the market access effect of PTAs with the increasing development of trade integration and global value chains (GVCs).

scholarly journals Pakistan-India Trade Potential and Issues

2009 ◽  
Vol 14 (Special Edition) ◽  
pp. 171-201 ◽  
Author(s):  
Zareen F. Naqvi
Keyword(s):  
Bilateral Trade ◽  
Import Substitution ◽  
Trade Agreement ◽  
Growth Strategies ◽  
Most Favored Nation ◽  
Trade Relations ◽  
Political Relations ◽  
Dialogue Process ◽  
Trade Potential ◽  
Low Levels

Pakistan and India are the two largest economies in South Asia with very low levels of bilateral trade. This has been the result of border disputes and political tensions, but also of inward-looking import-substitution growth strategies. Trade (including official and unofficial) between the two countries stood at around US$ 2.5-2.6 billion in 2007/08 but it could potentially be as much as US$ 5-10 billion or two to four times its current levels. The Composite Dialogue Process (CDP) has led to substantial improvements in political relations over the last 5 years and trade relations have shown positive outcomes as well. This paper recommends that the process be strengthened further by restarting the stalled CDP, Pakistan granting most favored nation (MFN) status to India, continuing to reduce impediments to trade and trade logistics, and perhaps even considering the possibility of a free trade agreement (FTA) with India.

scholarly journals A Gravity Model Approach towards Pakistan’s Bilateral Trade with SAARC Countries

2019 ◽  
Vol 22 (4) ◽  
pp. 23-38 ◽  
Author(s):  
Waheed Ullah Jan ◽  
Mahmood Shah
Keyword(s):  
Gravity Model ◽  
Fixed Effects ◽  
Bilateral Trade ◽  
Negative Impact ◽  
Positive Impact ◽  
Panel Study ◽  
Test Results ◽  
Fixed Effects Model ◽  
Trade Potential ◽  
The Common

This research paper attempts to estimate the bilateral trade of Pakistan with SAARC countries using a gravity model of trade. This panel study covers the period from 2003 to 2016. The empirical results are obtained through pooled OLS, fixed‑effects, and random‑effects estimators. On the basis of Hausman test results, the paper concentrates only on the findings of the fixed‑effects model. The empirical findings reveal that the GDPs of both Pakistan and the partner country have a positive impact on bilateral trade. Market size has a negative impact on trade and this is justified on the basis of the absorption effect. Similarly, distance and exchange rate also have a negative correlation with bilateral trade. The study finds that Pakistan has very low trade with India and Afghanistan, despite the common border. A common language has a positive but insignificant impact on Pakistan’s bilateral trade. The Paper also attempts to calculate the trade potential of Pakistan. The findings reveal that Pakistan has high trade potential with all SAARC member countries except the Maldives and Afghanistan.

Sign in / Sign up

Export Citation Format

Share Document