scholarly journals ANALISIS FAKTOR DETERMINAN YANG MEMPENGARUHI TINGKAT INFLASI DI INDONESIA DENGAN ERROR CORRECTION MECHANISM

2019 ◽  
Vol 4 (2) ◽  
pp. 120-131
Author(s):  
Muhammad Basorudin
Keyword(s):  
Growth Rate ◽  
Interest Rates ◽  
Error Correction ◽  
Money Supply ◽  
Inflation Rate ◽  
Short Term ◽  
Equilibrium Fluctuations ◽  
Error Correction Mechanism

In general, inflation is considered an important problem that must be resolved given its serious effects such as an unstable economy, rising prices of goods, rising unemployment and other impacts. This study aims to determine the effect of Bank Indonesia Interest Rates on inflation in Indonesia and find out the effect of changes in the money supply in (M2) on inflation in Indonesia. The method used is Error Correction Mechanism (ECM). Based on the model it is known that the BI rate variable has a significant effect on inflation, meaning that the interest rates issued by Bank Indonesia affect the inflation rate in Indonesia. Then, the M2 Growth Rate variable has no significant effect on inflation. The coefficient value of (ECT (-1)) of -0,1921 shows that short-term equilibrium fluctuations will be corrected towards the equilibrium of the long equilibrium around 19.21%. The adjusment process occurs in the first month and the rest is an adjudication process that occurs in the following months.

scholarly journals Analisis Pengaruh Transaksi Uang Elektronik terhadap Tingkat Inflasi di Indonesia

2021 ◽  
Vol 10 (1) ◽  
pp. 56-63
Author(s):  
Ruth Damayanti
Keyword(s):  
Error Correction ◽  
Money Supply ◽  
Inflation Rate ◽  
Error Correction Model ◽  
Advanced Technology ◽  
Short Term ◽  
Electronic Money ◽  
Correction Model ◽  
The Impact

Increasingly advanced technology encourages people to make transactions using electronic money (e-money). Nowadays, more Indonesian people use electronic money in their dealings, which is proven by the increasing volume of electronic money transactions from year to year. Electronic cash is chosed because it is more practical in making transactions with traders. The rising use of electronic money can affect the money supply, which can affect the inflation rate. Several studies have stated the effect of electronic money on inflation. This study aims to determine the impact of the variable volume and nominal value of electronic money transactions (e-money) on the inflation rate in Indonesia from January 2016 to December 2020. The data used in this study are secondary data with the type of monthly time series taken from Bank Indonesia, Kementerian Perdagangan, and BPS (Badan Pusat Statistik). The analysis technique used is the ECM (Error Correction Model). The Error Correction Model in this study aims to identify long-term and short-term relationships that occur because of the cointegration between research variables and the relationship between variables that are not stationary. This study indicates that in the long term, the variables volume of e-money transactions and money supply (M2) have a significant effect on the inflation variable. In contrast, other macroeconomic variables (BI rate and nominal value of e-money transactions) has no significant impact. Meanwhile, the short-term regression model shows no variables that have a substantial effect on the inflation variable.

scholarly journals The Puzzling Effect Of Money Shocks On Interest Rates

2011 ◽  
Vol 12 (2) ◽  
pp. 46
Author(s):  
Panita Piya-Oui ◽  
O. Felix Ayadi ◽  
Walter J. Mayer
Keyword(s):  
Growth Rate ◽  
Interest Rates ◽  
Money Supply ◽  
Inflation Rate ◽  
Negative Relationship ◽  
Liquidity Effect ◽  
Nominal Interest Rates ◽  
Real Balances ◽  
Lag Structure ◽  
Money Shocks

This study reexamines the controversial impact of changes in the growth rate of money supply on short-term nominal interest rates. Most of the early studies consistently find evidence that support a negative relationship between money shocks and interest rates. This relationship reflects the hypothesized liquidity effect. When the Fed accelerates the growth rate in money supply at given prices, output and inflation, the LM curve shifts, and real balances increase. Consequently, nominal an real interest rates are reduced. The results of the finite lag methods vary from one technique to another. However, the general trend points toward the vanishing liquidity effect. An infinite lag method which assumes a quadratic polynomial lag structure is also applied to data from 1972 through 1989. The results show a slight presence of the liquidity effect. The overall results also indicate that inflation rate as well as the variance of inflation rate slightly influence the relationship described above.

scholarly journals Prospects for Vietnam’s Economy in 2013

2013 ◽  
Vol 215 ◽  
pp. 02-11
Author(s):  
NGÂN TRẦN HOÀNG
Keyword(s):  
Economic Growth ◽  
Growth Rate ◽  
World Economy ◽  
Inflation Rate ◽  
Economic Restructuring ◽  
Short Term ◽  
Economic Growth Model ◽  
The World ◽  
Global Growth

In 2012, Vietnam?s economy faced great challenges. The world economy experienced more difficulties and complicated upheavals. International trade fell drastically while global growth rate was lower than predicted target, which affected badly the Vietnamese economy because of its full integration into the world economy and large openness. In this context, principal targets set for 2013 are macroeconomic stability, lower inflation rate, higher growth rate, three strategic breakthroughs associated with restructuring of the economy, and a new economic growth model. This paper analyzes obstacles to Vietnam?s economic growth, and offers short-term solutions to bottlenecks and long-term ones to the economic restructuring.

scholarly journals Pembangunan Ekonomi, Industrialisasi, dan Degradasi Lingkungan Hidup di Indonesia Tahun 1967-2013: Enviromental Kuznet Curve Model

2019 ◽  
Vol 12 (1) ◽  
Author(s):  
Andi Kurniawan
Keyword(s):  
Economic Development ◽  
Error Correction ◽  
Co2 Emissions ◽  
Environmental Degradation ◽  
Environmental Damage ◽  
Kuznets Curve ◽  
Short Term ◽  
Error Correction Mechanism ◽  
The Impact

Penelitian ini bertujuan mengidentifikasi dampak pembangunan ekonomi dan proses industrialisasi terhadap Degradasi lingkungan di Indonesia baik dalam jangka panjang maupun jangka pendek. Untuk melihat pengaruh pembangunan ekonomi dan industrialisasi terhadap penurunan kualitas lingkungan di Indonesia, penelitian ini menggunakan model Enviromental Kuznet Curve (EKC) dan dengan model Error Correction Mechanism (ECM). Hasil penelitian menjelaskan bahwa dalam jangka panjang peningkatan pendapatan masyarakat dan industrilasasi berpengaruh positif  secara linier terhadap peningkatan emisi C02 dan pada tingkat pendapatan tertentu terjadi proses perbaikan lingkungan yang ditandai dengan penurunan emisi CO2. Namun dalam jangka pendek hanya industrialisasi yeng membrikan pengaruh pada peningkatan emisi CO2. Diharapkan adanya konsesus bersama antara pemerintah dan pelaku usaha (industri) dalam mengurangi dampak pencemaran serta adanya peningkatan kesadaran masyakat dalam membantu mengurangi kerusakan lingkungan hidup.   Abstract This study aims to identify the impact of economic development and industrialization to  the environmental degradation in Indonesia, both in the long term and short term. To see the effect of economic development and industrialization to the environmental degradation in Indonesia, this research was  used Environmental Kuznets Curve (EKC) model and the model of  Error Correction Mechanism (ECM). The results of the study explain that in the long term, improvement of people's income and industrialization have positive effect linearly with the increase in C02 emissions and at a certain income level there is a process improvement environment characterized by a decrease in CO2 emissions. But in the short term only industrialization which influence on the increase of CO2 emissions Expected that the consensus between the government and businesses (industri) in reducing the impact of pollution and the increased awareness of society in helping to reduce environmental damage.    

scholarly journals Le taux de croissance de l’offre de monnaie et arbitrage entre le taux d’inflation et le taux de chômage au Canada

2009 ◽  
Vol 55 (3) ◽  
pp. 397-410
Author(s):  
Maurice N. Marchon
Keyword(s):  
Growth Rate ◽  
International Trade ◽  
Exchange Rate ◽  
Money Supply ◽  
Unemployment Rate ◽  
Output Growth ◽  
Real Output ◽  
Short Term ◽  
Trade Off ◽  
The Exchange Rate

This paper presents simulations results using a "Modified St. Louis Model" for Canada. These simulations identify opportunities of trade-off between inflation and unemployment rate. They reveal very slim opportunities of trade-off and demonstrate that any short-term gain in real output caused by monetary stimulus will have to be paid in term of compensating slower output growth to reduce inflationary expectations. This situation of no real trade-off shows up even if the model does not fully endogenize the exchange rate and international trade feedback of changes in money supply growth rate.

scholarly journals A Multi – Speed Europe, and the Peripherality of Poland

e-Finanse ◽  
2019 ◽  
Vol 15 (1) ◽  
pp. 30-44
Author(s):  
Mateusz Mierzejewski ◽  
Karolina Palimąka
Keyword(s):  
European Union ◽  
Business Cycles ◽  
Interest Rates ◽  
Inflation Rate ◽  
Developed Countries ◽  
The European Union ◽  
Short Term ◽  
Macroeconomic Indicators ◽  
Polish Economy

AbstractIn recent years, research on the synchronization of business cycles in economies has been undertaken more than once. This is a desirable phenomenon especially for the European Union. The aim of the article is to verify selected macroeconomic indicators that characterize the economies of countries belonging to the European Union in relation to Poland, thus presenting convergence of dynamic cycles of changes in socio-economic sphere indicators: inflation rate, unemployment rate, short-term interest rates, and GDP. For this purpose, a cross-spectral analysis was used which allows us to show the occurring fluctuations of different lengths, as well as to compare the strength of the relation of changes between selected indicators. According to the conducted analyses, it was noted that the Polish economy (in the perspective of long-term changes) is a determinant of changes for highly developed countries.

scholarly journals DETERMINAN TRANSAKSI NONTUNAI DI INDONESIA DENGAN PENDEKATAN ERROR CORRECTION MECHANISM (ECM) MODEL

2019 ◽  
Vol 3 (1) ◽  
pp. 62-77 ◽  
Author(s):  
Zulfa Nur Fajri Ramadhani ◽  
Siskarossa Ika Oktora ◽  
Indonesian Journal of Statistics and Its Applications IJSA
Keyword(s):  
Error Correction ◽  
Money Supply ◽  
Secondary Data ◽  
Long Run ◽  
Error Correction Mechanism ◽  
Short Run ◽  
Cash Transaction ◽  
Monthly Period ◽  
Private Savings ◽  
Positive Effect

Consumption is an activity that must be done by everyone. In order to consume something, a transaction is needed to get the goods or services desired. One kind of transaction that is used by many people nowadays is non-cash transaction. Since Bank Indonesia established Gerakan Nasional Non Tunai (GNNT) in August 2014, the value of non-cash transactions exceeds the value of cash transactions. It happenned because people prefer non-cash to cash transaction which is easier, safer, more practical, and more economical. Besides, an increase in non-cash transactions can also be influenced by other factors. Therefore, a study is conducted to analyze the determinants of non-cash transactions from the macro side by using Error Correction Mechanism (ECM). The data used in this study are secondary data from Bank Indonesia and Badan Pusat Statistik with monthly period from January 2010 until December 2017. The results showed that in the long run, private savings and BI rate have positive effect on non-cash transactions. In the short run, private savings and money supply have positive effect on non-cash transactions. While inflation does not affect non-cash transactions, both in the short and long run.

scholarly journals Long-Term Capital Goods Importation and Minimum Wage Relationship in Turkey: Bounds Testing Approach

2015 ◽  
Vol 10 (1) ◽  
pp. 122-129 ◽  
Author(s):  
Serkan Tastan ◽  
Halil Ozekicioglu
Keyword(s):  
Error Correction ◽  
Minimum Wage ◽  
Correction Term ◽  
Bounds Testing ◽  
Short Term ◽  
Capital Goods ◽  
Error Correction Mechanism ◽  
Bounds Testing Approach ◽  
Testing Approach

Abstract In order to examine the long-term relationship between capital goods importation and minimum wage, autoregressive distributed lag (ARDL) bounds testing approach to the cointegration is used in the study. According to bounds test results, a cointegration relation exists between the capital goods importation and the minimum wage. Therefore an ARDL(4,0) model is estimated in order to determine the long and short term relations between variables. According to the empirical analysis, there is a positive and significant relationship between the capital goods importation and the minimum wage in Turkey in the long term. A 1% increase in the minimum wage leads to a 0.8% increase in the capital goods importation in the long term. The result is similar for short term coefficients. The relationship observed in the long term is preserved in short term, though in a lower level. In terms of error correction model, it can be concluded that error correction mechanism works as the error correction term is negative and significant. Short term deviations might be resolved with the error correction mechanism in the long term. Accordingly, approximately 75% of any deviation from equilibrium which might arise in the previous six month period will be resolved in the current six month period. This means that returning to long term equilibrium progresses rapidly.

scholarly journals ANALISIS FAKTOR-FAKTOR YANG MEMPENGARUHI UTANG LUAR NEGERI DI INDONESIA

Jurnal Ecogen ◽  
2019 ◽  
Vol 1 (3) ◽  
pp. 482
Author(s):  
Defrizal Saputra ◽  
Hasdi Aimon ◽  
Melti Roza Adry
Keyword(s):  
Economic Growth ◽  
Interest Rates ◽  
Error Correction ◽  
Foreign Debt ◽  
Secondary Data ◽  
Error Correction Model ◽  
Short Term ◽  
Correction Model ◽  
Descriptive Research ◽  
Long Run

This study aims to determine and analyze the factors that influence foreign debt in Indonesia with variables that effect economic growth, inflation, and foreign interest rates. This type of research is associative descriptive research, where the data used is secondary data from 1970 to 2017 obtained from institutions and related institutions, which are analyzed using the Error Correction Model (ECM) method. This study initially used the Ordinary Lest Square (OLS) method to see long-term, and used ECM because it wanted to see short-term at the same time. The findings of this study indicate that economic growth and inflation have a significant effect in the long run, but the interest rates have no significant effect, and in the short term all have a significant effect on foreign debt in Indonesia. Keywords: foreign debt, economic growth, inflation, interest rates and error correction model (ECM)

CASE STUDY: The determinants of remittances to India

2014 ◽  
Vol 7 (2) ◽  
pp. 214-223 ◽  
Author(s):  
Poonam Gupta
Keyword(s):  
Growth Rate ◽  
Interest Rates ◽  
Short Term ◽  
Economic Growth Rate ◽  
Strong Trend ◽  
Advanced Economies ◽  
Macroeconomic Determinants ◽  
Indian Stock Market ◽  
The Impact

This paper analyses the macroeconomic determinants of remittances to India and assesses the impact of the current global slowdown on these flows. The paper shows that remittances exhibit a strong trend, whereby they have increased at a robust rate of 10 per cent a year since 1992. The movement of remittances is limited around the trend and traditionally has not been affected by the domestic or external macroeconomic variables. This pattern has changed since 2000, when the remittances have responded positively to the domestic interest rates and the Indian stock market; and negatively to the external interest rates. Looking ahead, a slowdown in the economic growth rate in advanced economies is unlikely to reduce the flow of remittances to India in the short term; but a prolonged slowdown, if it significantly reverses the migration of Indians, can reduce the trend growth rate. 

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