Loss of Employment, Lockdown Measures and Government Responses in Malaysia during the Covid-19 Pandemic: A Note

2021 ◽  
Vol 22 (3) ◽  
pp. 1525-1549
Author(s):  
Muzafar Shah Habibullah ◽  
Mohd Yusof Saari ◽  
Sugiharso Safuan ◽  
Badariah Haji Din ◽  
Anuar Shah Bali Mahomed
Keyword(s):  
Job Loss ◽  
Positive Association ◽  
Distributed Lag ◽  
Long Run ◽  
Ardl Approach ◽  
Short Run ◽  
Auto Regressive ◽  
The Government ◽  
The Relationship ◽  
Stimulus Package

In this paper, we use daily administrative data from January 25, 2020 to December 31, 2020 to examine the relationship between job losses and the Malaysian lockdown measures. The Auto Regressive Distributed Lag (ARDL) approach is used to estimate both the long-run and short-run models. The results of the Bounds F-test for cointegration reveal that there is a long-run link between job losses and the Malaysian government lockdown measures (both linear and non-linear). The positive association between job loss and lockdown measures shows that as the lockdown gets tighter, more people will lose their jobs. However, as time passes, especially in conjunction with the government stimulus package programmes, job losses decrease.

scholarly journals Determinants of Insurance Penetration in West African Countries: A Panel Auto Regressive Distributed Lag Approach

2021 ◽  
Vol 14 (8) ◽  
pp. 350
Author(s):  
Odunayo Olarewaju ◽  
Thabiso Msomi
Keyword(s):  
Banking Sector ◽  
West African ◽  
Education Sector ◽  
African Countries ◽  
Distributed Lag ◽  
Long Run ◽  
Short Run ◽  
Auto Regressive ◽  
Insurance Penetration ◽  
The Government

This study analyses the long- and short-term dynamics of the determinants of insurance penetration for the period 1999Q1 to 2019Q4 in 15 West African countries. The panel auto regressive distributed lag model was used on the quarterly data gathered. A cointegrating and short-run momentous connection was discovered between insurance penetration along with the independent variables, which were education, productivity, dependency, inflation and income. The error correction term’s significance and negative sign demonstrate that all variables are heading towards long-run equilibrium at a moderate speed of 56.4%. This further affirms that education, productivity, dependency, inflation and income determine insurance penetration in West Africa in the long run. In addition, the short-run causality revealed that all the pairs of regressors could jointly cause insurance penetration. The findings of this study recommend that the economy-wide policies by the government and the regulators of insurance markets in these economies should be informed by these significant factors. The restructuring of the education sector to ensure finance-related modules cut across every faculty in the higher education sector is also recommended. Furthermore, Bancassurance is also recommended to boost the easy penetration of the insurance sector using the relationship with the banking sector as a pathway.

SHORT-RUN AND LONG-RUN IMPACT OF INFLATION, UNEMPLOYMENT, AND ECONOMIC GROWTH TOWARDS POVERTY IN INDONESIA: ARDL APPROACH

2019 ◽  
Vol 2 (1) ◽  
pp. 15
Author(s):  
Ahmadi Murjani
Keyword(s):  
Economic Growth ◽  
Poverty Alleviation ◽  
Macroeconomic Variables ◽  
Distributed Lag ◽  
Autoregressive Distributed Lag ◽  
Long Run ◽  
Ardl Approach ◽  
Short Run ◽  
The Government ◽  
The Impact

 Poverty alleviation has become a vigorous program in the world in recent decades. In line with the efforts applied by the government in various countries to reduce poverty, some evaluations have been practised. The impacts of macroeconomic variables such as inflation, unemployment, and economic growth have been commonly employed to be assessed for their impact on the poverty. Previous studies in Indonesia yielded mix results regarding the impact of such macroeconomic variables on the poverty. Different methods and time reference issue were the suspected causes. This paper aims to overcome such problem by utilising the Autoregressive Distributed Lag (ARDL) equipped with the latest time of observations. This paper finds in the long-run, inflation, unemployment, and economic growth significantly influence the poverty. In the short-run, only inflation and economic growth are noted affecting poverty significantly. 

scholarly journals Effects of Exchange Rate Volatility On Non-Traditional Exports In Ghana

2017 ◽  
Vol 7 (2017) ◽  
pp. 80-103
Author(s):  
Camara Kwasi Obeng
Keyword(s):  
Exchange Rate ◽  
Exchange Rate Volatility ◽  
Real Effective Exchange Rate ◽  
Distributed Lag ◽  
Long Run ◽  
Effective Exchange ◽  
Short Run ◽  
Auto Regressive ◽  
The Government ◽  
Effective Exchange Rate

The government of Ghana has implemented a number of policies to strengthen the production and export of non-traditional products as a way of diversifying exports in Ghana with very little success. Foremost among these policies is the liberalization of exchange rate. Meanwhile, the exchange rate has been very volatile. The study, therefore, examines the effects of exchange rate volatility on non-traditional exports in Ghana.This study employed Auto-regressive Distributed Lag (ARDL) co-integration estimation technique for the investigation. The results indicate that exchange rate volatility negatively impacts Ghana’s non-traditional exports. Also, the effect is greater in the long- run than it is in the short-run. Other results also show that world income, growth rate of the economy and Treasury bill rate promote non-traditional exports, but real effective exchange rate does not. The value of the paper lies in the discussion of the short-run and long-run effects of exchange rate volatility on non-traditional exports in the Ghanaian context.

Determinants of Agricultural Productivity in Ethiopia: ARDL Approach

2018 ◽  
Vol 66 (3-4) ◽  
pp. 365-374
Author(s):  
Aynalem Shita ◽  
Nand Kumar ◽  
Seema Singh
Keyword(s):  
Arable Land ◽  
Agricultural Productivity ◽  
Factors Affecting ◽  
Distributed Lag ◽  
Autoregressive Distributed Lag ◽  
Long Run ◽  
Ardl Approach ◽  
Short Run ◽  
The Government ◽  
Alternative Sources

This study analyses factors affecting agricultural productivity in Ethiopia for the period of 1990–2016 by using autoregressive distributed lag (ARDL) model. Both the bounds test and the error correction model confirmed the existence of co-integration (long-run relationship) between the variables included in the model. The results revealed that cereal productivity is positively influenced by use of fertiliser and real gross domestic product (GDP) both in the long run and in the short run. While size of arable land influences productivity positively in the long run, its short-run effect was found to be negative. Hence, the government and other concerned authorities should work to enhance farmers’ use of improved technologies, such as fertiliser, by ensuring its timely availability at an affordable price, encouraging farmers to participate on alternative sources of income such as off-farm activities and bringing additional area under cereal production to improve agricultural productivity.

scholarly journals Auto-Regressive Distributed Lag Approach of Financial Intermediation of Commercial Banks and Risk in Nigeria

2020 ◽  
pp. 246-264
Author(s):  
Dr. IYO Ipeghan ◽  
Dr. EKPETE Marshall Simon ◽  
EKPETE Kinsley Simon
Keyword(s):  
Risk Factors ◽  
Granger Causality ◽  
Commercial Banks ◽  
Financial Intermediation ◽  
Causality Analysis ◽  
Distributed Lag ◽  
Long Run ◽  
Ardl Approach ◽  
Auto Regressive ◽  
The Relationship

This study empirically examines the relationship between financial intermediation of commercial banks and risk in Nigeria spanning from 2007-2019 and utilizing the auto-regressive distributed lag (ARDL) approach to co-integration and Granger causality analysis. The result of the ARDL bounds test reveals a stable long run relationship between the dependent and independent variables with greater bound value of 16.02. The ARDL results also reveal the presence of short and long run positive and significant relationship between loans and advances and risk factors. The finding of the Granger causality reveals bidirectional causality between loans and advances and risk factors. The study recommends that commercial banks should continue their short term lending of credit for investment as default has been drastically reduced in lending to customers.

scholarly journals The Effect of Foreign Direct Investment on Industrial Sector Growth: Evidence from Sri Lanka

2018 ◽  
Vol 4 (2) ◽  
pp. 88 ◽  
Author(s):  
NPG Samantha ◽  
Haiyun Liu
Keyword(s):  
Sri Lanka ◽  
Value Added ◽  
Industrial Sector ◽  
Advanced Technology ◽  
Sri Lankan ◽  
Distributed Lag ◽  
Long Run ◽  
Short Run ◽  
Auto Regressive ◽  
The Government

The development of the industrial sector stimulates economic growth and development by reducing poverty and regional disparity, increasing export income, generating quality employment, as well as developing technological capabilities and productive capacities. It has been more than four decades since removing trade-related barriers, and tax incentives liberalized the Sri Lankan economy offered to foreign investors to attract FDI and promote the industrial sector. Hence, the objective of this study is to investigate the relationship between inward FDI and industrial sector performance of Sri Lanka at the aggregate level for the period 1980-2016. We use the Auto Regressive Distributed Lag (ARDL) model to identify the long-run relationship and short-run dynamics of the selected variables. ARDL bounds test verifies the existence of co-integration among the selected variables. The study fails to find a significant relationship between FDI and industrial sector growth of Sri Lanka in the long run as well as in the short run. The attraction of vertically integrated FDI that consists with advanced technology and value-added production is one of the solutions for overcoming the issue of low technology and knowledge of Sri Lankan industrial sector. Sri Lankan FDI strategy associated with industrial sector should consider the pull and push factors related to recipient and source country respectively. To promote the industrial sector via FDI, the government policy should focus on attracting more FDI that could be channeled into those sectors that would contribute to national competitiveness.

scholarly journals Relationship between Inflation and other Macro Economic Variables in Pakistan

2015 ◽  
Vol 2 (4) ◽  
pp. 6-15
Author(s):  
Adnan Ali ◽  
Farzand Ali Jan ◽  
Sami Ullah Khan
Keyword(s):  
Budget Deficit ◽  
Economic Resources ◽  
Var Model ◽  
Annual Data ◽  
Distributed Lag ◽  
Autoregressive Distributed Lag ◽  
Long Run ◽  
Short Run ◽  
The Government ◽  
The Relationship

Conventionally, it is claimed that persistently higher deficit in government budget may cause the inflation to rise in the long run but this relationship is not conclusive empirically. Therefore, the present study is aimed to determine the relationship between inflation and other studied variables of macroeconomic i.e. fiscal deficit and supply of money in the short run as well as in the long run in Pakistan. the bound testing approach to co-integration and VAR model, established within an autoregressive distributed lag (ARDL) is used to annual data of time series covering the period of time from 1960 to 2010 for examining the studied variables both in short run as well as in long run. The conclusion of the study shows that the relationship between the studied variables is insignificant in the long-run but the outcomes of VAR model illustrate that a short run positive relationship between the studied variables cannot be ignored. The study further indicates that 1% change in budget deficit and money supply caused to change the inflation by 0.29 and 0.31 times respectively in the short run. The results provide strong evidence that the government may target reducing the inflation by generating domestic economic resources to boost the economic growth instead of reducing budget deficit.

The relationship between financial development and economic growth in Eswatini (formerly Swaziland)

2021 ◽  
Vol ahead-of-print (ahead-of-print) ◽  
Author(s):  
Siphe-okuhle Fakudze ◽  
Asrat Tsegaye ◽  
Kin Sibanda
Keyword(s):  
Economic Growth ◽  
Granger Causality ◽  
Financial Development ◽  
Granger Causality Test ◽  
Causality Test ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Distributed Lag ◽  
Long Run ◽  
Short Run ◽  
The Relationship

PurposeThe paper examined the relationship between financial development and economic growth for the period 1996 to 2018 in Eswatini.Design/methodology/approachThe Autoregressive Distributed Lag bounds test (ARDL) was employed to determine the long-run and short-run dynamics of the link between the variables of interest. The Granger causality test was also performed to establish the direction of causality between financial development and economic growth.FindingsThe ARDL results revealed that there is a long-run relationship between financial development and economic growth. The Granger causality test revealed bidirectional causality between money supply and economic growth, and unidirectional causality running from economic growth to financial development. The results highlight that economic growth exerts a positive and significant influence on financial development, validating the demand following hypothesis in Eswatini.Practical implicationsPolicymakers should formulate policies that aims to engineer more economic growth. The policies should strike a balance between deploying funds necessary to stimulate investment and enhancing productivity in order to enliven economic growth in Eswatini.Originality/valueThe study investigates the finance-growth linkage using time series analysis. It determines the long-run and short-run dynamics of this relationship and examines the Granger causality outcomes.

Impact of Environmental Tax on Comparative Advantage of Food and Food Products: A Study of G20 Countries in Light of Environmentally Sensitive Goods

2021 ◽  
pp. 001946622110352
Author(s):  
Alisha Mahajan ◽  
Kakali Majumdar
Keyword(s):  
Comparative Advantage ◽  
Food Products ◽  
Environmental Taxes ◽  
Environmental Tax ◽  
Distributed Lag ◽  
Autoregressive Distributed Lag ◽  
Long Run ◽  
Short Run ◽  
Environmentally Sensitive ◽  
The Relationship

Many countries are under constant fear that environmental policies might negatively influence the international competitiveness of polluting industries. In this study, we aim to evaluate the relationship and impact of the environmental tax on comparative advantage of trade in food and food products industry, considered to be one of the highly environmentally sensitive industries. This study also investigates, whether this relationship differs among countries covered in G20, with the help of correlation analysis. We select panel autoregressive distributed lag approach for this study as it can analyse long-run as well as short-run association even when the variables are stationary at different orders of integration. Using panel data from G20 countries over the period of 21 years that is from 1994 to 2015, it is concluded that when we allow environmental taxes to interact with the revealed comparative advantage (RCA) of G20 nations, the overall impact of the environmental tax on the RCA is negative in the long period. It is therefore suggested that countries should follow Porter hypothesis to stimulate innovations resulting from strict environmental regulations that affect the environment in least possible manner. JEL Codes: C01, C23, C33, F18, O57, Q5

Determinants of Workers’ Remittances in Nepal: An Empirical Study

2021 ◽  
Vol 3 (1) ◽  
pp. 126-140
Author(s):  
Naw Raj Bhatt ◽  
Melina Kharel
Keyword(s):  
Exchange Rate ◽  
Poverty Eradication ◽  
Exogenous Variables ◽  
Long Run ◽  
Ardl Approach ◽  
Short Run ◽  
Us Dollar ◽  
The Exchange Rate ◽  
External Sector ◽  
The Relationship

Background: Remittance has a crucial role in external sector stability, poverty eradication, and social as well as the human development of developing countries like Nepal. The determinants of remittance are widely discussed in the existing works of literature from altruism and portfolio approaches. Since the share of remittance in the current account, current transfer income, and forex reserve is significantly high, the study of major determinants of increasing remittance inflow is necessary. In this regard, this paper examines the relationship between remittance inflow, exchange rate, and workers outflow in Nepal. Objective: The main objective of this study was to examine the effect of the exchange rate and workers outflow on the remittance inflow of Nepal. Methods: This study employs the ARDL approach to co-integration to examine the relationship between remittance inflow as an endogenous variable and exchange rate and workers outflow as exogenous variables. Results: The coefficients of the exchange rate and workers outflow are significant and positive in long run as well as in the short-run whereas coefficients of the first lag value of workers outflow and remittance inflow itself are significant but negative. Conclusion: The significant and positive coefficient of exchange rate indicates that depreciation of Nepalese currency with US dollar (or rise in the exchange rate) rises the remittance inflow. Further, the remittance inflow also increases with an increase in workers outflow. The effect of the exchange rate on remittance is greater than that of workers outflow in both the long-run and short-run.

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