scholarly journals Spatial and Temporal Variations of Gutenberg-Richter b-Values Using Classic Method of Moment (CMM) and Seismicity in and Around Van Lake

2019 ◽  
Vol 2 (2) ◽  
pp. 192-199
Author(s):  
Tuğba Türker ◽  
Yusuf Bayrak
Keyword(s):  
Source Region ◽  
Earthquake Hazard ◽  
Seismic Source ◽  
B Value ◽  
Temporal Variations ◽  
Lake Van ◽  
Method Of Moment ◽  
B Values ◽  
Classic Method ◽  
Gis System

The aim of this study determined spatial-temporal variations of Gutenberg-Richter b-values using the Classic Method of Moment (CMM) and seismicity in and around Lake Van. We wrote a Matlab program for this method in the Matlab system. The faults for the Van region used as updated in the GIS system given the reference from the different sources by Bayrak and Türker (will be used in the doctoral thesis). Around Lake Van divided into 4 different seismic source regions. For each seismic source region, probabilities ranging from 0 to 1, the annual probability of exceedances and return periods were calculated for the next 25, 50 and 100 years. Van region determined the seismicity b value changes, β-values. We mapped spatial variations of the b-values using the GIS system. As a result, Lake Van region (region 2) occurred 7.1 magnitude an earthquake in the next 100 years with 31 % probability levels. If it occurred in the 50 years with 15 % probability levels, in the 25 years with 7.8 % probability levels. We estimated the low b-values in the Lake Van so, it has been the high seismicity and can be occurred an earthquake as the high magnitude in the next years. This study will be lead to earthquake hazard analysis and seismic hazard studies in and around Lake Van.

Short-term retrospective forecasting of earthquakes based on temporal variations of the b-value of the magnitude-frequency distribution

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Paolo Gasperini ◽  
Emanuele Biondini ◽  
Antonio Petruccelli ◽  
Barbara Lolli ◽  
Gianfranco Vannucci
Keyword(s):  
Frequency Distribution ◽  
High Probability ◽  
High Stress ◽  
B Value ◽  
Temporal Variations ◽  
Short Term ◽  
Differential Stress ◽  
B Values ◽  
Probability Of Occurrence ◽  
Seismic Catalog

<p>In some recent works it has been hypothesized that the slope (b-value) of the magnitude-frequency distribution of earthquakes may be related to the differential stress inside the crust.  In particular, it has been observed that low b-values are associated with high stress values and therefore with high probability of occurrence of strong seismic shocks. In this paper we formulate a predictive hypothesis based on temporal variations of the b-value. We tested and optimized such hypothesis retrospectively based on the homogenized Italian instrumental seismic catalog (HORUS) from 1995 to 2018. A comparison is also made with a similar predictive hypothesis based on the occurrence of strong foreshocks.</p><p> </p>

scholarly journals Spatiotemporal Heterogeneity of <i>b</i> Values Revealed by a Data-Driven Approach for June 17, 2019 <i>M</i><sub>S</sub> 6.0, Changning Sichuan, China earthquake Sequence

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Changsheng Jiang ◽  
Libo Han ◽  
Feng Long ◽  
Guijuan Lai ◽  
Fengling Yin ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Voronoi Tessellation ◽  
Source Region ◽  
Parametric Method ◽  
B Value ◽  
Aftershock Sequence ◽  
Data Driven ◽  
Earthquake Hazards ◽  
Absolute Deviation ◽  
B Values ◽  
Spatiotemporal Heterogeneity

Abstract. The spatiotemporal heterogeneity of b values has great potential for understanding the seismogenic process and assessing the seismic hazard. However, there is still much controversy about whether it exists or not, and an important reason is that the choice of subjective parameters has eroded the foundations of many researches. To overcome this problem, we used a recent developed non-parametric method based on the data-driven concept to calculate b values. The major steps of this method include: 1) perform a large number of Voronoi tessellation, Bayesian information criterion (BIC) value calculation and selection of the optimal models for the study area, and 2) use the ensemble median (Q2) and median absolute deviation (MAD) value to represent the final b value and its uncertainty. We investigated spatiotemporal variations of b values before and after the 2019 Changning MS 6.0 earthquake in Sichuan Basin, China. The results reveal a spatial volume with low pre-mainshock b values near the mainshock source region, and its size corresponds roughly with the rupture area of the mainshock. The anomalously high pre-mainshock b values distributed in the NE direction of the epicenter was interpreted to be related with fluid invasion or increased pore pressure. The decreases of b values during the aftershock sequence along with the occurrences of several strong aftershocks imply that b values could be an indicator of stress state. In addition, we found that although the distribution characteristics of b values obtained from different way of investigating are qualitatively consistent, they differ significantly in terms of their specific values, suggesting that the best way to study the heterogeneous pattern of b values is in the joint dimension of space-time rather than alone in time and space. Overall, our study emphasizes the importance of b value studies on assessing the earthquake hazards.

scholarly journals Spatiotemporal heterogeneity of <i>b</i> values revealed by a data-driven approach for the 17 June 2019 <i>M</i><sub>S</sub> 6.0 Changning earthquake sequence, Sichuan, China

2021 ◽  
Vol 21 (7) ◽  
pp. 2233-2244
Author(s):  
Changsheng Jiang ◽  
Libo Han ◽  
Feng Long ◽  
Guijuan Lai ◽  
Fengling Yin ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Source Region ◽  
Parametric Method ◽  
Information Criterion ◽  
B Value ◽  
Aftershock Sequence ◽  
Data Driven ◽  
Earthquake Hazards ◽  
Absolute Deviation ◽  
B Values ◽  
Spatiotemporal Heterogeneity

Abstract. The spatiotemporal heterogeneity of b values has great potential for helping in understanding the seismogenic process and assessing seismic hazard. However, there is still much controversy about whether it exists or not, and an important reason is that the choice of subjective parameters has eroded the foundations of much research. To overcome this problem, we used a recently developed non-parametric method based on a data-driven concept to calculate b values. The major steps of this method include (1) performing a large number of Voronoi tessellations and Bayesian information criterion (BIC) value calculation, selecting the optimal models for the study area, and (2) using the ensemble median (Q2) and median absolute deviation (MAD) value to represent the final b value and its uncertainty. We investigated spatiotemporal variations in b values before and after the 2019 Changning MS=6.0 earthquake in the Sichuan Basin, China. The results reveal a spatial volume with low pre-mainshock b values near the mainshock source region, and its size corresponds roughly with the rupture area of the mainshock. The anomalously high pre-mainshock b values distributed in the NW direction of the epicenter were interpreted to be related to fluid invasion. The decreases in b values during the aftershock sequence along with the occurrences of several strong aftershocks imply that b values could be an indicator of the stress state. In addition, we found that although the distribution characteristics of b values obtained from different methods of investigation are qualitatively consistent, they differ significantly in terms of their specific values, suggesting that the best way to study the heterogeneous pattern of b values is in the joint dimension of space-time rather than separately in time and space. Overall, our study emphasizes the importance of b-value studies in assessing earthquake hazards.

scholarly journals Statistical analysis of aftershock sequences related with two major Nepal earthquakes: April 25, 2015, MW 7.8, and May 12, 2015, MW 7.2

2016 ◽  
Vol 59 (5) ◽  
Author(s):  
Prasanta Chingtham ◽  
Babita Sharma ◽  
Sumer Chopra ◽  
Pareshnath SinghaRoy
Keyword(s):  
Scaling Laws ◽  
Main Shock ◽  
B Value ◽  
Temporal Variations ◽  
Aftershock Sequence ◽  
Earthquake Catalog ◽  
Study Region ◽  
Nepal Himalaya ◽  
B Values ◽  
Aftershock Sequences

Present study describes the statistical properties of aftershock sequences related with two major Nepal earthquakes (April 25, 2015, MW 7.8, and May 12, 2015, MW 7.2) and their correlations with the tectonics of Nepal Himalaya. The established empirical scaling laws such as the Gutenberg–Richter (GR) relation, the modified Omori law, and the fractal dimension for both the aftershock sequences of Nepal earthquakes have been investigated to assess the spatio-temporal characteristics of these sequences. For this purpose, the homogenized earthquake catalog in moment magnitude, MW is compiled from International Seismological Center (ISC) and Global Centroid Moment Tensor (GCMT) databases during the period from April 25 to October 31, 2015. The magnitude of completeness, MC, a and b-values of Gutenberg–Richter relationship for the first aftershock sequence are found to be 3.0, 4.74, 0.75 (±0.03) respectively whereas the MC, a and b-values of the same relationship for the second aftershock sequence are calculated to be 3.3, 5.46, 0.90 (±0.04) respectively. The observed low b-values for both the sequences, as compared to the global mean of 1.0 indicate the presence of high differential stress accumulations within the fractured rock mass of Nepal Himalaya. The calculated p-values of 1.01 ± 0.05 and 0.95 ± 0.04 respectively for both the aftershock sequences also imply that the aftershock sequence of first main-shock exhibits relatively faster temporal decay pattern than the aftershock sequence of second main-shock. The fractal dimensions, DC values of 1.84 ± 0.05 and 1.91 ± 0.05 respectively for both the aftershock sequences of Nepal earthquakes also reveal the clustering pattern of earthquakes and signifies that the aftershocks are scattered all around the two dimensional space of fractured fault systems of the Nepal region. The low b-value and low DC observed in the temporal variations of b-value and DC before the investigated earthquake (MW 7.2) suggest the presence of high-stress concentrations in the thrusting regimes of the Nepal region before the failure of faults. Moreover, the decrease of b-value with the corresponding decrease of DC observed in their temporal variations can primarily act as an indicator for possible prediction of major earthquakes in the study region.

scholarly journals Seismic hazard assessment of Iran

1999 ◽  
Vol 42 (6) ◽  
Author(s):  
B. Tavakoli ◽  
M. Ghafory-Ashtiany
Keyword(s):  
Seismic Hazard ◽  
Peak Ground Acceleration ◽  
Grid Point ◽  
Seismic Hazard Assessment ◽  
Earthquake Hazard ◽  
Seismic Source ◽  
Historical Earthquakes ◽  
Earthquake Insurance ◽  
Ground Acceleration ◽  
Seismic Source Models

The development of the new seismic hazard map of Iran is based on probabilistic seismic hazard computation using the historical earthquakes data, geology, tectonics, fault activity and seismic source models in Iran. These maps have been prepared to indicate the earthquake hazard of Iran in the form of iso-acceleration contour lines, and seismic hazard zoning, by using current probabilistic procedures. They display the probabilistic estimates of Peak Ground Acceleration (PGA) for the return periods of 75 and 475 years. The maps have been divided into intervals of 0.25 degrees in both latitudinal and longitudinal directions to calculate the peak ground acceleration values at each grid point and draw the seismic hazard curves. The results presented in this study will provide the basis for the preparation of seismic risk maps, the estimation of earthquake insurance premiums, and the preliminary site evaluation of critical facilities.

Earthquake sequences and b values in the southeast United States

1974 ◽  
Vol 64 (1) ◽  
pp. 267-273
Author(s):  
Leland Timothy Long
Keyword(s):  
United States ◽  
South Carolina ◽  
B Value ◽  
Earthquake Activity ◽  
Southeast United States ◽  
B Values ◽  
History Of ◽  
Earthquake Sequences ◽  
Foreshock Activity ◽  
Epicentral Region

abstract Aftershock and foreshock activity within 12 hr of the July 13, 1971 earthquake near Seneca, South Carolina, indicates a b value of 0.9 at ML = 3.0. Approximately 40 events recorded in a 5-day aftershock survey near Seneca indicate a b value of 1.7 at ML = 0.5. A sequence of over 40 events occurring west of McCormick, South Carolina, indicates a b value of 1.3 at ML = 2.4. The McCormick sequence was active for 4 months. Unlike the Seneca region, the McCormick region has a history of earthquake activity. Examinations of other published southeastern b values suggest that southeastern United States earthquakes originate from conditions of ambient stress which vary with epicentral region or magnitude.

Seismic Source Characterization for Greater Phoenix Area Earthquake Hazard

2015 ◽  
pp. 1078-7275.EEG-1618
Author(s):  
Simon T. Ghanat ◽  
Edward Kavazanjian ◽  
Ramon Arrowsmith
Keyword(s):  
Earthquake Hazard ◽  
Seismic Source ◽  
Source Characterization

scholarly journals Temporal variations of the fractal properties of seismicity in the western part of the north Anatolian fault zone: possible artifacts due to improvements in station coverage

1995 ◽  
Vol 2 (3/4) ◽  
pp. 147-157 ◽  
Author(s):  
A. O. Öncel ◽  
Ö. Alptekin ◽  
I. Main
Keyword(s):  
Fault Zone ◽  
Statistical Significance ◽  
Rock Fracture ◽  
Aegean Sea ◽  
B Value ◽  
Temporal Variations ◽  
North Anatolian Fault ◽  
North Anatolian Fault Zone ◽  
The North ◽  
Northern Aegean Sea

Abstract. Seismically-active fault zones are complex natural systems exhibiting scale-invariant or fractal correlation between earthquakes in space and time, and a power-law scaling of fault length or earthquake source dimension consistent with the exponent b of the Gutenberg-Richter frequency-magnitude relation. The fractal dimension of seismicity is a measure of the degree of both the heterogeneity of the process (whether fixed or self-generated) and the clustering of seismic activity. Temporal variations of the b-value and the two-point fractal (correlation) dimension Dc have been related to the preparation process for natural earthquakes and rock fracture in the laboratory These statistical scaling properties of seismicity may therefore have the potential at least to be sensitive short- term predictors of major earthquakes. The North Anatolian Fault Zone (NAFZ) is a seismicallyactive dextral strike slip fault zone which forms the northern boundary of the westward moving Anatolian plate. It is splayed into three branches at about 31oE and continues westward toward the northern Aegean sea. In this study, we investigate the temporal variation of Dc and the Gutenberg-Richter b-value for seismicity in the western part of the NAFZ (including the northern Aegean sea) for earthquakes of Ms > 4.5 occurring in the period between 1900 and 1992. b ranges from 0.6-1.6 and Dc from 0.6 to 1.4. The b-value is found to be weakly negatively correlated with Dc (r=-0.56). However the (log of) event rate N is positively correlated with b, with a similar degree of statistical significance (r=0.42), and negatively correlated with Dc (r=-0.48). Since N increases dramatically with improved station coverage since 1970, the observed negative correlation between b and Dc is therefore more likely to be due to this effect than any underlying physical process in this case. We present this as an example of how man-made artefacts of recording can have similar statistical effects to underlying processes.

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