scholarly journals Simulating the Transport and Dispersal of Volcanic Ash Clouds With Initial Conditions Created by a 3D Plume Model

2021 ◽  
Vol 9 ◽  
Author(s):  
Zhixuan Cao ◽  
Marcus Bursik ◽  
Qingyuan Yang ◽  
Abani Patra
Keyword(s):  
Long Range ◽  
Volcanic Ash ◽  
Initial Conditions ◽  
Source Parameters ◽  
Vertical Direction ◽  
Volcanic Plume ◽  
Plume Model ◽  
Model Based ◽  
Volcanic Source ◽  
Plume Geometry

Volcanic ash transport and dispersion (VATD) models simulate atmospheric transport of ash from a volcanic source represented by parameterized concentration of ash with height. Most VATD models represent the volcanic plume source as a simple line with a parameterized ash emission rate as a function of height, constrained only by a total mass eruption rate (MER) for a given total rise height. However, the actual vertical ash distribution in volcanic plumes varies from case to case, having complex dependencies on eruption source parameters, such as grain size, speed at the vent, vent size, buoyancy flux, and atmospheric conditions. We present here for the first time the use of a three-dimensional (3D) plume model based on conservation laws to represent the ash cloud source without any prior assumption or simplification regarding plume geometry. By eliminating assumed behavior associated with a parameterized plume geometry, the predictive skill of VATD simulations is improved. We use our recently developed volcanic plume model based on a 3D smoothed-particle hydrodynamic Lagrangian method and couple the output to a standard Lagrangian VATD model. We apply the coupled model to the Pinatubo eruption in 1991 to illustrate the effectiveness of the approach. Our investigation reveals that initial particle distribution in the vertical direction, including within the umbrella cloud, has more impact on the long-range transport of ash clouds than does the horizontal distribution. Comparison with satellite data indicates that the 3D model-based distribution of ash particles through the depth of the volcanic umbrella cloud, which is much lower than the observed maximum plume height, produces improved long-range VATD simulations. We thus show that initial conditions have a significant impact on VATD, and it is possible to obtain a better estimate of initial conditions for VATD simulations with deterministic, 3D forward modeling of the volcanic plume. Such modeling may therefore provide a path to better forecasts lessening the need for user intervention, or attempts to observe details of an eruption that are beyond the resolution of any potential satellite or ground-based technique, or a posteriori creating a history of ash emission height via inversion.

scholarly journals Inverting for volcanic SO2 flux at high temporal resolution using spaceborne plume imagery and chemistry-transport modelling: the 2010 Eyjafjallajökull eruption case study

2013 ◽  
Vol 13 (17) ◽  
pp. 8569-8584 ◽  
Author(s):  
M. Boichu ◽  
L. Menut ◽  
D. Khvorostyanov ◽  
L. Clarisse ◽  
C. Clerbaux ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Temporal Resolution ◽  
Spatial Scales ◽  
Source Parameters ◽  
Volcanic Plume ◽  
High Temporal Resolution ◽  
Transport Modelling ◽  
Important Indicator ◽  
So2 Flux ◽  
Volcanic Source

Abstract. Depending on the magnitude of their eruptions, volcanoes impact the atmosphere at various temporal and spatial scales. The volcanic source remains a major unknown to rigorously assess these impacts. At the scale of an eruption, the limited knowledge of source parameters, including time variations of erupted mass flux and emission profile, currently represents the greatest issue that limits the reliability of volcanic cloud forecasts. Today, a growing number of satellite and remote sensing observations of distant plumes are becoming available, bringing indirect information on these source terms. Here, we develop an inverse modelling approach combining satellite observations of the volcanic plume with an Eulerian regional chemistry-transport model (CHIMERE) to characterise the volcanic SO2 emissions during an eruptive crisis. The May 2010 eruption of Eyjafjallajökull is a perfect case study to apply this method as the volcano emitted substantial amounts of SO2 during more than a month. We take advantage of the SO2 column amounts provided by a vast set of IASI (Infrared Atmospheric Sounding Interferometer) satellite images to reconstruct retrospectively the time series of the mid-tropospheric SO2 flux emitted by the volcano with a temporal resolution of ~2 h, spanning the period from 1 to 12 May 2010. We show that no a priori knowledge on the SO2 flux is required for this reconstruction. The initialisation of chemistry-transport modelling with this reconstructed source allows for reliable simulation of the evolution of the long-lived tropospheric SO2 cloud over thousands of kilometres. Heterogeneities within the plume, which mainly result from the temporal variability of the emissions, are correctly tracked over a timescale of a week. The robustness of our approach is also demonstrated by the broad similarities between the SO2 flux history determined by this study and the ash discharge behaviour estimated by other means during the phases of high explosive activity at Eyjafjallajökull in May 2010. Finally, we show how a sequential IASI data assimilation allows for a substantial improvement in the forecasts of the location and concentration of the plume compared to an approach assuming constant flux at the source. As the SO2 flux is an important indicator of the volcanic activity, this approach is also of interest to monitor poorly instrumented volcanoes from space.

scholarly journals Improving Ensemble Volcanic Ash Forecasts by Direct Insertion of Satellite Data and Ensemble Filtering

Atmosphere ◽  
2021 ◽  
Vol 12 (9) ◽  
pp. 1215
Author(s):  
Meelis J. Zidikheri ◽  
Chris Lucas
Keyword(s):  
Volcanic Ash ◽  
Weather Prediction ◽  
Source Parameters ◽  
Volcanic Eruptions ◽  
Forecast Skill ◽  
Aviation Industry ◽  
Transport Modelling ◽  
Volcanic Source ◽  
Mass Load ◽  
Ensemble Filtering

Improved quantitative forecasts of volcanic ash are in great demand by the aviation industry to enable better risk management during disruptive volcanic eruption events. However, poor knowledge of volcanic source parameters and other dispersion and transport modelling uncertainties, such as those due to errors in numerical weather prediction fields, make this problem very challenging. Nonetheless, satellite-based algorithms that retrieve ash properties, such as mass load, effective radius, and cloud top height, combined with inverse modelling techniques, such as ensemble filtering, can significantly ameliorate these problems. The satellite-retrieved data can be used to better constrain the volcanic source parameters, but they can also be used to avoid the description of the volcanic source altogether by direct insertion into the forecasting model. In this study we investigate the utility of the direct insertion approach when employed within an ensemble filtering framework. Ensemble members are formed by initializing dispersion models with data from different timesteps, different values of cloud top height, thickness, and NWP ensemble members. This large ensemble is then filtered with respect to observations to produce a refined forecast. We apply this approach to 14 different eruption case studies in the tropical atmosphere. We demonstrate that the direct insertion of data improves model forecast skill, particularly when it is used in a hybrid ensemble in which some ensemble members are initialized from the volcanic source. Moreover, good forecast skill can be obtained even when detailed satellite retrievals are not available, which is frequently the case for volcanic eruptions in the tropics.

scholarly journals Inverting for volcanic SO<sub>2</sub> flux at high temporal resolution using spaceborne plume imagery and chemistry-transport modelling: the 2010 Eyjafjallajökull eruption case-study

2013 ◽  
Vol 13 (3) ◽  
pp. 6553-6588 ◽  
Author(s):  
M. Boichu ◽  
L. Menut ◽  
D. Khvorostyanov ◽  
L. Clarisse ◽  
C. Clerbaux ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Temporal Resolution ◽  
Spatial Scales ◽  
Source Parameters ◽  
Volcanic Plume ◽  
High Temporal Resolution ◽  
Transport Modelling ◽  
Important Indicator ◽  
So2 Flux ◽  
Volcanic Source

Abstract. Depending on the magnitude of their eruptions, volcanoes impact the atmosphere at various temporal and spatial scales. The volcanic source remains a major unknown to rigorously assess these impacts. At the scale of an eruption, the limited knowledge of source parameters, including time-variations of erupted mass flux and emission profile, currently represents the greatest issue that limits the reliability of volcanic cloud forecasts. Today, a growing number of satellite and remote sensing observations of distant plumes are becoming available, bringing indirect information on these source terms. Here, we develop an inverse modeling approach combining satellite observations of the volcanic plume with an Eulerian regional chemistry-transport model (CHIMERE) to better characterise the volcanic SO2 emissions during an eruptive crisis. The May 2010 eruption of Eyjafjallajökull is a perfect case-study to apply this method as the volcano emitted substantial amounts of SO2 during more than a month. We take advantage of the SO2 column amounts provided by a vast set of IASI (Infrared Atmospheric Sounding Interferometer) satellite images to reconstruct retrospectively the time-series of the mid-tropospheric SO2 flux emitted by the volcano with a temporal resolution of ~2 h, spanning the period from 1 to 12 May 2010. The initialisation of chemistry-transport modelling with this reconstructed source allows for a reliable simulation of the evolution of the long-lived tropospheric SO2 cloud over thousands of kilometres. Heterogeneities within the plume, which mainly result from the temporal variability of the emissions, are correctly tracked over a time scale of a week. The robustness of our approach is also demonstrated by the broad similarities between the SO2 flux history determined by this study and the ash discharge behaviour estimated by other means during the phases of high explosive activity at Eyjafjallajökull in May 2010. Finally, we show how a sequential IASI data assimilation allows for a substantial improvement in the forecasts of the location and concentration of the plume compared to an approach assuming constant flux at the source. As the SO2 flux is an important indicator of the volcanic activity, this approach is also of interest to monitor poorly instrumented volcanoes from space.

3D Reconstruction of Volcanic Ash Clouds Using Simulated Satellite Imagery

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Tom Etchells ◽  
Lucy Berthoud ◽  
Andrew Calway ◽  
Matthew Watson
Keyword(s):  
3D Reconstruction ◽  
Satellite Imagery ◽  
Volcanic Ash ◽  
Source Parameters ◽  
Ground Truth ◽  
Plume Model ◽  
Reconstruction Methods ◽  
Space Carving ◽  
The Impact ◽  
Simulated Images

&lt;p&gt;Volcanic ash suspended in the atmosphere can pose a significant hazard to aviation, with the potential to cause severe damage or shutdown of jet engines. Forecasts of ash contaminated airspace are generated using atmospheric transportation and dispersion models, among the inputs to these models are eruption source parameters such as cloud-top height and cloud volume. A potential method to measure these source parameters is space carving &amp;#8211; a technique to generate 3D hull reconstructions of clouds using multi-angle imagery.&lt;/p&gt;&lt;p&gt;This paper investigates the potential for 3D space carving reconstruction using multi-angle satellite imagery.&amp;#160; This builds on previous work where the authors have applied this technique to ground-based and drone-based imagery. A satellite-based imaging platform has advantages such as global coverage and being safely removed from any damaging effects of a volcanic eruption. However, the accuracy of any potential reconstruction will be affected by the distances and restricted viewing angles of a satellite in orbit.&lt;/p&gt;&lt;p&gt;To assess the general suitability of a satellite-based system for reconstruction, as well as different configurations of the system, a method for simulating satellite imagery and applying a space carving reconstruction scheme was developed. This method allows the analysis of the effects of orbital dynamics (altitude, inclination, etc.), spatial resolutions, and imaging rates on the efficacy of the 3D reconstruction of ash clouds. The model utilises an input &amp;#8216;ground-truth&amp;#8217; voxel-based plume model as the imaging target and generates simulated satellite images based on the user defined orbital and camera properties. These simulated images are then used for reconstruction and the resultant plume can be compared against the ground-truth model.&lt;/p&gt;&lt;p&gt;A range of possible observation schemes (controlling number and distribution of images and limits on viewing angles) have been modelled over a range of possible orbital paths and the accuracy of the space carving reconstruction has been measured. Spatial resolution limits for the accurate reconstruction of various plume sizes can be calculated. Limitations of the model are presented, including the sensitivity to the size and shape of the input plume model and the impact of the perfect feature identification in the simulated images. Further work includes the use of additional input models and improvements and validation of the image simulation method.&lt;/p&gt;&lt;p&gt;The methods presented in this study demonstrate the potential of satellite-based 3D reconstruction methods in the forecasting of ash dispersion, leading to potential improvements in airspace management and aviation safety.&lt;/p&gt;

Reconstruction of Dynamically Evolving Volcanic Ash Clouds from Simulated Satellite Imagery

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Tom Etchells ◽  
Lucy Berthoud ◽  
Kieran Wood ◽  
Andrew Calway ◽  
Matt Watson
Keyword(s):  
Satellite Imagery ◽  
Volcanic Ash ◽  
Source Parameters ◽  
Volcanic Eruptions ◽  
Volcanic Plume ◽  
Reconstruction Method ◽  
Reconstruction Process ◽  
Multiple User ◽  
Reconstruction Performance ◽  
Wide Range

&lt;p&gt;Large volcanic eruptions can pose significant hazards over a range of domains. One such hazard is volcanic ash becoming suspended in the atmosphere. This can lead to significant risks to aviation, with the potential to cause severe or critical damage to jet engines. As such, the effective measurement and forecasting of ash contaminated airspace is of vital importance. Forecasts are generally produced using volcanic ash atmospheric transportation and dispersion models (ATDMs). Among the inputs to these models are eruption source parameters such as cloud-top height and cloud volume. One method of providing estimates of these source parameters, and to aid in characterising the size, shape, and distribution of a volcanic plume, is the reconstruction of the outer hull of the plume using multi-angle imagery.&lt;/p&gt;&lt;p&gt;When considering platforms for generating this imagery, satellites provide a range of advantages. These include the potential for global coverage, the wide range of viewing angles during an orbital pass, and being safely removed from any potential volcanic hazards. This method of plume reconstruction has been previously demonstrated by the authors using simulated satellite imagery of a model volcanic plume. However, the simple model plume used during this previous work was static and did not evolve with time, an assumption that is not realistic.&lt;/p&gt;&lt;p&gt;This presentation builds on the previous work and assess the efficacy of satellite imagery-based plume reconstruction under conditions closer to real-world, namely with a plume that is evolving with time. The time evolving plume model is produced via a Blender particle simulation. The images required for reconstruction are then generated at multiple user-determined time intervals and locations. A Space Carving reconstruction method is then applied to the imagery to generate the reconstructed plume. Performance and reconstruction accuracies are investigated by comparison of the reconstructed plume with the &amp;#8216;ground-truth&amp;#8217; simulation model. The impacts of a range of variables on the reconstruction performance are investigated, including plume size, imager properties, satellite orbit, and the use of additional satellites. The accuracy of the Blender plume simulation is compared with more mature plume simulations such as the University of Bristol PlumeRise model. These comparison models were not themselves used for the reconstruction process due to issues with the generation of accurate imagery.&lt;/p&gt;&lt;p&gt;The improved simulation environment presented in this work further demonstrates the efficacy of a satellite-based reconstruction process for the measurement and forecasting of volcanic ash, potentially leading to improvements in hazard monitoring and aviation safety.&lt;/p&gt;

scholarly journals Near-real-time volcanic cloud monitoring: insights into global explosive volcanic eruptive activity through analysis of Volcanic Ash Advisories

2021 ◽  
Vol 83 (2) ◽  
Author(s):  
S. Engwell ◽  
L. Mastin ◽  
A. Tupper ◽  
J. Kibler ◽  
P. Acethorp ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Real Time ◽  
Volcanic Activity ◽  
Volcanic Ash ◽  
Source Parameters ◽  
Volcanic Eruptions ◽  
Volcanic Hazards ◽  
Process Data ◽  
Cloud Monitoring ◽  
Satellite Sensors ◽  
Volcanic Cloud

AbstractUnderstanding the location, intensity, and likely duration of volcanic hazards is key to reducing risk from volcanic eruptions. Here, we use a novel near-real-time dataset comprising Volcanic Ash Advisories (VAAs) issued over 10 years to investigate global rates and durations of explosive volcanic activity. The VAAs were collected from the nine Volcanic Ash Advisory Centres (VAACs) worldwide. Information extracted allowed analysis of the frequency and type of explosive behaviour, including analysis of key eruption source parameters (ESPs) such as volcanic cloud height and duration. The results reflect changes in the VAA reporting process, data sources, and volcanic activity through time. The data show an increase in the number of VAAs issued since 2015 that cannot be directly correlated to an increase in volcanic activity. Instead, many represent increased observations, including improved capability to detect low- to mid-level volcanic clouds (FL101–FL200, 3–6 km asl), by higher temporal, spatial, and spectral resolution satellite sensors. Comparison of ESP data extracted from the VAAs with the Mastin et al. (J Volcanol Geotherm Res 186:10–21, 2009a) database shows that traditional assumptions used in the classification of volcanoes could be much simplified for operational use. The analysis highlights the VAA data as an exceptional resource documenting global volcanic activity on timescales that complement more widely used eruption datasets.

scholarly journals Long-range transport of volcanic aerosol from the 2010 Merapi tropical eruption to Antarctica

2018 ◽  
Author(s):  
Xue Wu ◽  
Sabine Griessbach ◽  
Lars Hoffmann
Keyword(s):  
Long Range ◽  
Lower Stratosphere ◽  
Polar Vortex ◽  
Volcanic Eruptions ◽  
Long Range Transport ◽  
Volcanic Plume ◽  
Volcanic Aerosol ◽  
The South ◽  
Range Transport ◽  
The Antarctic

Abstract. Volcanic sulfate aerosol is an important source of sulfur for Antarctica where other local sources of sulfur are rare. Mid- and high latitude volcanic eruptions can directly influence the aerosol budget of the polar stratosphere. However, tropical eruptions can also enhance polar aerosol load following long-range transport. In the present work, we analyze the volcanic plume of a tropical eruption, Mount Merapi in October 2010, using the Lagrangian particle dispersion model Massive-Parallel Trajectory Calculations (MPTRAC), Atmospheric Infrared Sounder (AIRS) SO2 observations and Michelson Interferometer for Passive Atmospheric Sounding (MIPAS) aerosol observations. We investigate the pathway and transport efficiency of the volcanic aerosol from the tropical tropopause layer (TTL) to the lower stratosphere over Antarctica. We first estimated the time- and height-resolved SO2 injection time series over Mount Merapi during the explosive eruption using the AIRS SO2 observations and a backward trajectory approach. Then the SO2 injections were tracked for up to 6 months using the MPTRAC model. The Lagrangian transport simulation of the volcanic plume was compared to MIPAS aerosol observations and showed good agreement. Both of the simulation and the observations presented in this study suggest that a significant amount of aerosols of the volcanic plume from the Merapi eruption was transported from the tropics to the south of 60 °S within one month after the eruption and even further to Antarctica in the following two months. This relatively fast meridional transport of volcanic aerosol was mainly driven by quasi-horizontal mixing from the TTL to the extratropical lower stratosphere, which was facilitated by the weakening of the subtropical jet during the seasonal transition from austral spring to summer and linked to the westerly phase of the quasi-biennial oscillation (QBO). When the plume went to southern high latitudes, the polar vortex was displaced from the south pole, so the volcanic plume was carried to the south pole without penetrating the polar vortex. Based on the model results, the most efficient pathway for the quasi-horizontal mixing was in between the isentropic surfaces of 360 and 430 K. Although only 4 % of the initial SO2 load was transported into the lower stratosphere south of 60 °S, the Merapi eruption contributed about 8800 tons of sulfur to the Antarctic lower stratosphere. This indicates that the long-range transport under favorable meteorological conditions enables tropical volcanic eruptions to be an important remote source of sulfur for the Antarctic stratosphere.

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