scholarly journals A Nomogram for Predicting the Need of Postoperative Tracheostomy in Patients With Aneurysmal Subarachnoid Hemorrhage

2021 ◽  
Vol 12 ◽  
Author(s):  
Xiao-Yong Chen ◽  
Yue Chen ◽  
Ni Lin ◽  
Jin-Yuan Chen ◽  
Chen-Yu Ding ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Subarachnoid Hemorrhage ◽  
Predictive Power ◽  
Validation Cohort ◽  
Aneurysmal Subarachnoid Hemorrhage ◽  
External Validation ◽  
Area Under The Curve ◽  
World Federation ◽  
Training Cohort ◽  
Baseline Information ◽  
High World

Objective: Early identification for the need of tracheostomy (TT) in aneurysmal subarachnoid hemorrhage (aSAH) patients remains one of the main challenges in clinical practice. Our study aimed to establish and validate a nomogram model for predicting postoperative TT in aSAH patients.Methods: Patients with aSAH receiving active treatment (interventional embolization or clipping) in our institution between June 2012 and December 2018 were retrospectively included. The effects of patients' baseline information, aneurysm features, and surgical factors on the occurrence of postoperative TT were investigated for establishing a nomogram in the training cohort with 393 patients. External validation for the nomogram was performed in the validation cohort with 242 patients.Results: After multivariate analysis, higher age, high neutrophil-to-lymphocyte ratio (NLR), high World Federation of Neurological Surgeons Scale (WFNS), and high Barrow Neurological Institute (BNI) grade were left in the final logistic regression model. The predictive power of the model was excellent in both training cohort and validation cohort [area under the curve (AUC): 0.924, 95% confidence interval [CI]: 0.893–0.948; AUC: 0.881, 95% CI: 0.833–0.919]. A nomogram consisting of these factors had a C-index of 0.924 (95% CI: 0.869–0.979) in the training cohort and was validated in the validation cohort (C-index: 0.881, 95% CI: 0.812–0.950). The calibration curves suggested good match between prediction and observation in both training and validation cohorts.Conclusion: Our study established and validated a nomogram model for predicting postoperative TT in aSAH patients.

scholarly journals An Externally Validated Dynamic Nomogram for Predicting Unfavorable Prognosis in Patients With Aneurysmal Subarachnoid Hemorrhage

2021 ◽  
Vol 12 ◽  
Author(s):  
Ping Hu ◽  
Yang Xu ◽  
Yangfan Liu ◽  
Yuntao Li ◽  
Liguo Ye ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Logistic Regression ◽  
Prognostic Factors ◽  
Subarachnoid Hemorrhage ◽  
Validation Cohort ◽  
Aneurysmal Subarachnoid Hemorrhage ◽  
External Validation ◽  
Brier Score ◽  
Web Based ◽  
Training Cohort ◽  
Multivariable Logistic Regression

Background: Aneurysmal subarachnoid hemorrhage (aSAH) leads to severe disability and functional dependence. However, no reliable method exists to predict the clinical prognosis after aSAH. Thus, this study aimed to develop a web-based dynamic nomogram to precisely evaluate the risk of poor outcomes in patients with aSAH.Methods: Clinical patient data were retrospectively analyzed at two medical centers. One center with 126 patients was used to develop the model. Least absolute shrinkage and selection operator (LASSO) analysis was used to select the optimal variables. Multivariable logistic regression was applied to identify independent prognostic factors and construct a nomogram based on the selected variables. The C-index and Hosmer–Lemeshow p-value and Brier score was used to reflect the discrimination and calibration capacities of the model. Receiver operating characteristic curve and calibration curve (1,000 bootstrap resamples) were generated for internal validation, while another center with 84 patients was used to validate the model externally. Decision curve analysis (DCA) and clinical impact curves (CICs) were used to evaluate the clinical usefulness of the nomogram.Results: Unfavorable prognosis was observed in 46 (37%) patients in the training cohort and 24 (29%) patients in the external validation cohort. The independent prognostic factors of the nomogram, including neutrophil-to-lymphocyte ratio (NLR) (p = 0.005), World Federation of Neurosurgical Societies (WFNS) grade (p = 0.002), and delayed cerebral ischemia (DCI) (p = 0.0003), were identified using LASSO and multivariable logistic regression. A dynamic nomogram (https://hu-ping.shinyapps.io/DynNomapp/) was developed. The nomogram model demonstrated excellent discrimination, with a bias-corrected C-index of 0.85, and calibration capacities (Hosmer–Lemeshow p-value, 0.412; Brier score, 0.12) in the training cohort. Application of the model to the external validation cohort yielded a C-index of 0.84 and a Brier score of 0.13. Both DCA and CIC showed a superior overall net benefit over the entire range of threshold probabilities.Conclusion: This study identified that NLR on admission, WFNS grade, and DCI independently predicted unfavorable prognosis in patients with aSAH. These factors were used to develop a web-based dynamic nomogram application to calculate the precise probability of a poor patient outcome. This tool will benefit personalized treatment and patient management and help neurosurgeons make better clinical decisions.

Nimodipine pharmacokinetics after intraventricular injection of sustained-release nimodipine for subarachnoid hemorrhage

2021 ◽  
Vol 134 (1) ◽  
pp. 95-101 ◽  
Author(s):  
R. Loch Macdonald ◽  
Daniel Hänggi ◽  
Poul Strange ◽  
Hans Jakob Steiger ◽  
J Mocco ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Subarachnoid Hemorrhage ◽  
Sustained Release ◽  
Aneurysmal Subarachnoid Hemorrhage ◽  
External Ventricular Drain ◽  
Plasma Concentrations ◽  
Intraventricular Injection ◽  
World Federation ◽  
Maximum Plasma ◽  
Clinical Trial Registration ◽  
Sustained Release Formulation

OBJECTIVEThe objective of this study was to measure the concentration of nimodipine in CSF and plasma after intraventricular injection of a sustained-release formulation of nimodipine (EG-1962) in patients with aneurysmal subarachnoid hemorrhage (SAH).METHODSPatients with SAH repaired by clip placement or coil embolization were randomized to EG-1962 or oral nimodipine. Patients were classified as grade 2–4 on the World Federation of Neurosurgical Societies grading scale for SAH and had an external ventricular drain inserted as part of their standard of care. Cohorts of 12 patients received 100–1200 mg of EG-1962 as a single intraventricular injection (9 per cohort) or they remained on oral nimodipine (3 per cohort). Plasma and CSF were collected from each patient for measurement of nimodipine concentrations and calculation of maximum plasma and CSF concentration, area under the concentration-time curve from day 0 to 14, and steady-state concentration.RESULTSFifty-four patients in North America were randomized to EG-1962 and 18 to oral nimodipine. Plasma concentrations increased with escalating doses of EG-1962, remained stable for 14 to 21 days, and were detectable at day 30. Plasma concentrations in the oral nimodipine group were more variable than for EG-1962 and were approximately equal to those occurring at the EG-1962 800-mg dose. CSF concentrations of nimodipine in the EG-1962 groups were 2–3 orders of magnitude higher than in the oral nimodipine group, in which nimodipine was only detected at low concentrations in 10% (21/213) of samples. In the EG-1962 groups, CSF nimodipine concentrations were 1000 times higher than plasma concentrations.CONCLUSIONSPlasma concentrations of nimodipine similar to those achieved with oral nimodipine and lasting for 21 days could be achieved after a single intraventricular injection of EG-1962. The CSF concentrations from EG-1962, however, were at least 2 orders of magnitude higher than those with oral nimodipine. These results supported a phase 3 study that demonstrated a favorable safety profile for EG-1962 but yielded inconclusive efficacy results due to notable differences in clinical outcome based on baseline disease severity.Clinical trial registration no.: NCT01893190 (ClinicalTrials.gov).

scholarly journals Radiomic nomogram based on MRI to predict grade of branching type intraductal papillary mucinous neoplasms of the pancreas: a multicenter study

2021 ◽  
Vol 21 (1) ◽  
Author(s):  
Sijia Cui ◽  
Tianyu Tang ◽  
Qiuming Su ◽  
Yajie Wang ◽  
Zhenyu Shu ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Calibration Curve ◽  
Main Pancreatic Duct ◽  
Validation Cohort ◽  
External Validation ◽  
High Grade ◽  
Intraductal Papillary Mucinous Neoplasms ◽  
Training Cohort ◽  
Independent Validation ◽  
Medical Centers ◽  
Mucinous Neoplasms

Abstract Background Accurate diagnosis of high-grade branching type intraductal papillary mucinous neoplasms (BD-IPMNs) is challenging in clinical setting. We aimed to construct and validate a nomogram combining clinical characteristics and radiomic features for the preoperative prediction of low and high-grade in BD-IPMNs. Methods Two hundred and two patients from three medical centers were enrolled. The high-grade BD-IPMN group comprised patients with high-grade dysplasia and invasive carcinoma in BD-IPMN (n = 50). The training cohort comprised patients from the first medical center (n = 103), and the external independent validation cohorts comprised patients from the second and third medical centers (n = 48 and 51). Within 3 months prior to surgery, all patients were subjected to magnetic resonance examination. The volume of interest was delineated on T1-weighted (T1-w) imaging, T2-weighted (T2-w) imaging, and contrast-enhanced T1-weighted (CET1-w) imaging, respectively, on each tumor slice. Quantitative image features were extracted using MITK software (G.E.). The Mann-Whitney U test or independent-sample t-test, and LASSO regression, were applied for data dimension reduction, after which a radiomic signature was constructed for grade assessment. Based on the training cohort, we developed a combined nomogram model incorporating clinical variables and the radiomic signature. Decision curve analysis (DCA), a receiver operating characteristic curve (ROC), a calibration curve, and the area under the ROC curve (AUC) were used to evaluate the utility of the constructed model based on the external independent validation cohorts. Results To predict tumor grade, we developed a nine-feature-combined radiomic signature. For the radiomic signature, the AUC values of high-grade disease were 0.836 in the training cohort, 0.811 in external validation cohort 1, and 0.822 in external validation cohort 2. The CA19–9 level and main pancreatic duct size were identified as independent parameters of high-grade of BD-IPMNs using multivariate logistic regression analysis. The CA19–9 level and main pancreatic duct size were then used to construct the radiomic nomogram. Using the radiomic nomogram, the high-grade disease-associated AUC values were 0.903 (training cohort), 0.884 (external validation cohort 1), and 0.876 (external validation cohort 2). The clinical utility of the developed nomogram was verified using the calibration curve and DCA. Conclusions The developed radiomic nomogram model could effectively distinguish high-grade patients with BD-IPMNs preoperatively. This preoperative identification might improve treatment methods and promote personalized therapy in patients with BD-IPMNs.

Variation of patient characteristics, management, and outcome with timing of surgery for aneurysmal subarachnoid hemorrhage

2011 ◽  
Vol 114 (4) ◽  
pp. 1045-1053 ◽  
Author(s):  
Kelly B. Mahaney ◽  
Michael M. Todd ◽  
James C. Torner
Keyword(s):  
Subarachnoid Hemorrhage ◽  
Management Practices ◽  
Aneurysmal Subarachnoid Hemorrhage ◽  
Timing Of Surgery ◽  
Early Surgery ◽  
Outcome Variable ◽  
Optimal Time ◽  
World Federation ◽  
Time Interval ◽  
Fisher Grade

ObjectThe past 30 years have seen a shift in the timing of surgery for aneurysmal subarachnoid hemorrhage (SAH). Earlier practices of delayed surgery that were intended to avoid less favorable surgical conditions have been replaced by a trend toward early surgery to minimize the risks associated with rebleeding and vasospasm. Yet, a consensus as to the optimal timing of surgery has not been reached. The authors hypothesized that earlier surgery, performed using contemporary neurosurgical and neuroanesthesia techniques, would be associated with better outcomes when using contemporary management practices, and sought to define the optimal time interval between SAH and surgery.MethodsData collected as part of the Intraoperative Hypothermia for Aneurysm Surgery Trial (IHAST) were analyzed to investigate the relationship between timing of surgery and outcome at 3 months post-SAH. The IHAST enrolled 1001 patients in 30 neurosurgical centers between February 2000 and April 2003. All patients had a radiographically confirmed SAH, were World Federation of Neurosurgical Societies Grades I–III at the time of surgery, and underwent surgical clipping of the presumed culprit aneurysm within 14 days of the date of hemorrhage. Patients were seen at 90-day follow-up visits. The primary outcome variable was a Glasgow Outcome Scale score of 1 (good outcome). Intergroup differences in baseline, intraoperative, and postoperative variables were compared using the Fisher exact tests. Variables reported as means were compared with ANOVA. Multiple logistic regression was used for multivariate analysis, adjusting for covariates. A p value of less than 0.05 was considered to be significant.ResultsPatients who underwent surgery on Days 1 or 2 (early) or Days 7–14 (late) (Day 0 = date of SAH) fared better than patients who underwent surgery on Days 3–6 (intermediate). Specifically, the worst outcomes were observed in patients who underwent surgery on Days 3 and 4. Patients who had hydrocephalus or Fisher Grade 3 or 4 on admission head CT scans had better outcomes with early surgery than with intermediate or late surgery.ConclusionsEarly surgery, in good-grade patients within 48 hours of SAH, is associated with better outcomes than surgery performed in the 3- to 6-day posthemorrhage interval. Surgical treatment for aneurysmal SAH may be more hazardous during the 3- to 6-day interval, but this should be weighed against the risk of rebleeding.

scholarly journals Elevated Baseline C-Reactive Protein as a Predictor of Outcome After Aneurysmal Subarachnoid Hemorrhage

Neurosurgery ◽  
2015 ◽  
Vol 77 (5) ◽  
pp. 786-793 ◽  
Author(s):  
◽  
Carole L. Turner ◽  
Karol Budohoski ◽  
Christopher Smith ◽  
Peter J. Hutchinson ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Subarachnoid Hemorrhage ◽  
Aneurysmal Subarachnoid Hemorrhage ◽  
White Blood Cells ◽  
Cerebral Injury ◽  
World Federation ◽  
C Reactive Protein ◽  
Reactive Protein ◽  
Poor Outcome ◽  
Fisher Grade ◽  
Good Grade

Abstract BACKGROUND: There remains a proportion of patients with unfavorable outcomes after aneurysmal subarachnoid hemorrhage, of particular relevance in those who present with a good clinical grade. A forewarning of those at risk provides an opportunity towards more intensive monitoring, investigation, and prophylactic treatment prior to the clinical manifestation of advancing cerebral injury. OBJECTIVE: To assess whether biochemical markers sampled in the first days after the initial hemorrhage can predict poor outcome. METHODS: All patients recruited to the multicenter Simvastatin in Aneurysmal Hemorrhage Trial (STASH) were included. Baseline biochemical profiles were taken between time of ictus and day 4 post ictus. The t-test compared outcomes, and a backwards stepwise binary logistic regression was used to determine the factors providing independent prediction of an unfavorable outcome. RESULTS: Baseline biochemical data were obtained in approximately 91% of cases from 803 patients. On admission, 73% of patients were good grade (World Federation of Neurological Surgeons grades 1 or 2); however, 84% had a Fisher grade 3 or 4 on computed tomographic scan. For patients presenting with good grade on admission, higher levels of C-reactive protein, glucose, and white blood cells and lower levels of hematocrit, albumin, and hemoglobin were associated with poor outcome at discharge. C-reactive protein was found to be an independent predictor of outcome for patients presenting in good grade. CONCLUSION: Early recording of C-reactive protein may prove useful in detecting those good grade patients who are at greater risk of clinical deterioration and poor outcome.

scholarly journals Establishment and Validation of an Integrated Model to Predict Postoperative Recurrence in Patients With Atypical Meningioma

2021 ◽  
Vol 11 ◽  
Author(s):  
Xiao-Yong Chen ◽  
Jin-Yuan Chen ◽  
Yin-Xing Huang ◽  
Jia-Heng Xu ◽  
Wei-Wei Sun ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Cox Regression ◽  
Validation Cohort ◽  
Clinical Laboratory ◽  
External Validation ◽  
Postoperative Recurrence ◽  
Integrated Model ◽  
Atypical Meningioma ◽  
Tumor Diameter ◽  
Roc Curve Analysis ◽  
Training Cohort

BackgroundThis study aims to establish an integrated model based on clinical, laboratory, radiological, and pathological factors to predict the postoperative recurrence of atypical meningioma (AM).Materials and MethodsA retrospective study of 183 patients with AM was conducted. Patients were randomly divided into a training cohort (n = 128) and an external validation cohort (n = 55). Univariable and multivariable Cox regression analyses, the least absolute shrinkage and selection operator (LASSO) regression analysis, time-dependent receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve analysis, and evaluation of clinical usage were used to select variables for the final nomogram model.ResultsAfter multivariable Cox analysis, serum fibrinogen >2.95 g/L (hazard ratio (HR), 2.43; 95% confidence interval (CI), 1.05–5.63; p = 0.039), tumor located in skull base (HR, 6.59; 95% CI, 2.46-17.68; p < 0.001), Simpson grades III–IV (HR, 2.73; 95% CI, 1.01–7.34; p = 0.047), tumor diameter >4.91 cm (HR, 7.10; 95% CI, 2.52–19.95; p < 0.001), and mitotic level ≥4/high power field (HR, 2.80; 95% CI, 1.16–6.74; p = 0.021) were independently associated with AM recurrence. Mitotic level was excluded after LASSO analysis, and it did not improve the predictive performance and clinical usage of the model. Therefore, the other four factors were integrated into the nomogram model, which showed good discrimination abilities in training cohort (C-index, 0.822; 95% CI, 0.759–0.885) and validation cohort (C-index, 0.817; 95% CI, 0.716–0.918) and good match between the predicted and observed probability of recurrence-free survival.ConclusionOur study established an integrated model to predict the postoperative recurrence of AM.

Abstract TP425: How do Different Outcome Measures Reflect Outcome After Aneurysmal Subarachnoid Hemorrhage

Stroke ◽  
2017 ◽  
Vol 48 (suppl_1) ◽  
Author(s):  
Daniel Haenggi ◽  
Nima Etminan ◽  
Hans Jakob Steiger ◽  
R. Loch Macdonald ◽  
Stephan A Mayer ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Subarachnoid Hemorrhage ◽  
Outcome Measures ◽  
Aneurysmal Subarachnoid Hemorrhage ◽  
Phase 1 ◽  
External Ventricular Drain ◽  
Cognitive Status ◽  
World Federation ◽  
Cognitive Assessments ◽  
Dose Escalation Study ◽  
Sustained Release Formulation

Few treatments for aneurysmal subarachnoid hemorrhage (aSAH) have been effective in randomized clinical studies. One reason may be that the outcome measures used are not sensitive enough to detect efficacy of treatments in this disease. This hypothesis was examined by comparing 6 outcome measures for 72 patients with aSAH. Patients with aSAH who were World Federation of Neurological Surgeons grades 2 to 4 with an external ventricular drain inserted as part of standard of care were entered in a Phase 1/2a multicenter, controlled, randomized, open-label, dose escalation study to determine the maximum tolerated dose and safety and tolerability of a sustained release formulation of nimodipine (EG-1962, NEWTON study) in patients with aSAH. Clinical outcome was assessed at 90 days after aSAH using the extended Glasgow outcome scale (eGOS), modified Rankin scale (mRS), Montreal cognitive assessment (MoCA), telephone interview of cognitive status (TICS), NIHSS and Barthel index. The relationship between each outcome measure and the eGOS was plotted on arithmetic graphs (Figure). The eGOS and mRS gave very similar results. More detailed cognitive assessments (MoCA, TICS) were more exponential in shape with more variability. The NIHSS and Barthel had outcomes clustered towards the highest ends of the scales with distributions that did not discriminate as much as the eGOS or mRS. The MoCA and TICS gave similar results. It was concluded that the eGOS or mRS produce a similar and varying range of outcomes after aSAH, whereas cognitive assessments like the MoCA and TICS and scales designed for ischemic stroke like the NIHSS and BI are less discriminatory of outcomes after aSAH.

scholarly journals Prediction of Outcome After Aneurysmal Subarachnoid Hemorrhage

Stroke ◽  
2019 ◽  
Vol 50 (4) ◽  
pp. 837-844 ◽  
Author(s):  
Carlina E. van Donkelaar ◽  
Nicolaas A. Bakker ◽  
Jaqueline Birks ◽  
Nic J.G.M. Veeger ◽  
Jan D.M. Metzemaekers ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Clinical Outcome ◽  
Operating Characteristic ◽  
Aneurysmal Subarachnoid Hemorrhage ◽  
Characteristic Curve ◽  
External Validation ◽  
World Federation ◽  
Final Model ◽  
Fisher Grade ◽  
Temporal Validation ◽  
Grading Scale

Background and Purpose— Early prediction of clinical outcome after aneurysmal subarachnoid hemorrhage (aSAH) is still lacking accuracy. In this observational cohort study, we aimed to develop and validate an accurate bedside prediction model for clinical outcome after aSAH, to aid decision-making at an early stage. Methods— For the development of the prediction model, a prospectively kept single-center cohort of 1215 aSAH patients, admitted between 1998 and 2014, was used. For temporal validation, a prospective cohort of 224 consecutive aSAH patients from the same center, admitted between 2015 and 2017, was used. External validation was performed using the ISAT (International Subarachnoid Aneurysm Trial) database (2143 patients). Primary outcome measure was poor functional outcome 2 months after aSAH, defined as modified Rankin Scale score 4–6. The model was constructed using multivariate regression analyses. Performance of the model was examined in terms of discrimination and calibration. Results— The final model included 4 predictors independently associated with poor outcome after 2 months: age, World Federation of Neurosurgical Societies grade after resuscitation, aneurysm size, and Fisher grade. Temporal validation showed high discrimination (area under the receiver operating characteristic curve, 0.90; 95% CI, 0.85–0.94), external validation showed fair to good discrimination (area under the receiver operating characteristic curve, 0.73; 95% CI, 0.70–0.76). The model showed satisfactory calibration in both validation cohorts. The SAFIRE grading scale was derived from the final model: size of the aneurysm, age, Fisher grade, world federation of neurosurgical societies after resuscitation. Conclusions— The SAFIRE grading scale is an accurate, generalizable, and easily applicable model for early prediction of clinical outcome after aSAH.

scholarly journals Intrasylvian hematoma caused by ruptured middle cerebral artery aneurysms predicts recovery from poor-grade subarachnoid hemorrhage

2015 ◽  
Vol 123 (3) ◽  
pp. 686-692 ◽  
Author(s):  
Hitoshi Fukuda ◽  
Kosuke Hayashi ◽  
Takafumi Moriya ◽  
Satoru Nakashita ◽  
Benjamin W. Y. Lo ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Subarachnoid Hemorrhage ◽  
Aneurysmal Subarachnoid Hemorrhage ◽  
Multivariable Analysis ◽  
World Federation ◽  
Poor Grade ◽  
Younger Age ◽  
Scale Scores ◽  
Cisternal Irrigation ◽  
Observational Cohort ◽  
Middle Cerebral Artery Aneurysms

OBJECT Intrasylvian hematoma (ISH) is a subtype of intracranial hematoma caused by aneurysmal rupture and often presents with a poor initial neurological grade; it is not well studied. The aim of this study was to elucidate outcomes of aneurysmal subarachnoid hemorrhage (SAH) with ISH. METHODS Data for 97 patients with poor-grade SAH (World Federation of Neurosurgical Societies Grade IV or V) were retrospectively analyzed from a single-center, prospective, observational cohort database. Ultra-early surgical clipping, removal of hematoma, external decompression for brain swelling, and prevention of vasospasm by cisternal irrigation with milrinone were combined as an aggressive treatment. Characteristics and clinical courses of SAH with ISH were identified. The authors also evaluated any correlations between poor admission-grade SAH and ISH with good functional outcome. RESULTS Patients with poor admission-grade SAH and with ISH were more likely to have initial cerebral edema (p < 0.001, Mann-Whitney U-test), which significantly resolved overtime (p < 0.001, Mann-Whitney U-test). These patients had a better chance of functional survival (modified Rankin Scale scores of 1–3; OR 5.75; 95% CI 1.36–24.3; p = 0.017) at 6 months after hospital discharge, after adjustment for potential confounders such as younger age and better initial neurological grade by multivariable analysis. CONCLUSIONS ISH predicted good functional recovery from poor-grade aneurysmal SAH.

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