scholarly journals Individualized Prediction of Survival Benefits of Pancreatectomy Plus Chemotherapy in Patients With Simultaneous Metastatic Pancreatic Cancer

2021 ◽  
Vol 11 ◽  
Author(s):  
Duorui Nie ◽  
Guihua Lai ◽  
Guilin An ◽  
Zhuojun Wu ◽  
Shujun Lei ◽  
...  

BackgroundMetastatic pancreatic cancer (mPC) is a highly lethal malignancy with poorer survival. However, chemotherapy alone was unable to maintain long‐term survival. This study aimed to evaluate the individualized survival benefits of pancreatectomy plus chemotherapy (PCT) for mPC.MethodsA total of 4546 patients with mPC from 2004 to 2015 were retrieved from the Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End Results database. The survival curve was calculated using the Kaplan-Meier method and differences in survival curves were tested using log-rank tests. Cox proportional hazards regression analyses were performed to evaluate the prognostic value of involved variables. A new nomogram was constructed to predict overall survival based on independent prognosis factors. The performance of the nomogram was measured by concordance index, calibration plot, and area under the receiver operating characteristic curve.ResultsCompared to pancreatectomy or chemotherapy alone, PCT can significantly improve the prognosis of patients with mPC. In addition, patients with well/moderately differentiated tumors, age ≤66 years, tumor size ≤42 mm, or female patients were more likely to benefit from PCT. Multivariate analysis showed that age at diagnosis, sex, marital status, grade, tumor size, and treatment were independent prognostic factors. The established nomogram has a good ability to distinguish and calibrating.ConclusionPCT can prolong survival in some patients with mPC. Our nomogram can individualize predict OS of pancreatectomy combined with chemotherapy in patients with concurrent mPC.

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Heng Zou ◽  
Wenhao Chen ◽  
Huan Wang ◽  
Li Xiong ◽  
Yu Wen ◽  
...  

Abstract Overview and objective: Although evidence for the application of albumin–bilirubin (ALBI) grading system to assess liver function in hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) is available, less is known whether it can be applied to determine the prognosis of single HCC with different tumor sizes. This study aimed to address this gap.Methods: Here, we enrolled patients who underwent hepatectomy due to single HCC from the year 2010 to 2014. Analyses were performed to test the potential of ALBI grading system to monitor the long-term survival of single HCC subjects with varying tumor sizes.Results: Overall, 265 participants were recruited. The overall survival (OS) among patients whose tumors were ≤ 7 cm was remarkably higher compared to those whose tumors were > 7 cm. The Cox proportional hazards regression model identified the tumor differentiation grade, ALBI grade, and maximum tumor size as key determinants of the OS. The ALBI grade could stratify the patients who had a single tumor ≤ 7 cm into two distinct groups with different prognoses. The OS between ALBI grades 1 and 2 was comparable for patients who had a single tumor > 7 cm.Conclusions: We show that ALBI grading system can predict disease outcomes of single HCC patients with tumor size ≤ 7 cm. However, the ALBI grade may not predict capability the prognosis of patients with single tumor > 7 cm.


2020 ◽  
Vol 38 (15_suppl) ◽  
pp. e15067-e15067
Author(s):  
Emily Pei-Ying Lin ◽  
Chih-Yuan Hsu ◽  
Pan-Chyr Yang ◽  
Yu Shyr

e15067 Background: Approvals of immune checkpoint inhibitors (ICI) were made based on positive clinical trial results analyzed by the Cox proportional hazards (PH) model. With ICI data, however, long tails and early crossover in survival curves, which violate the Cox PH assumption, can lead to misinterpretation of clinical significance of findings. Here we introduce the Cox-TEL and show the differences of study results before and after Cox-TEL adjustment using KEYNOTE 042 and 045 as examples. Methods: Cox-TEL is built on the mathematical foundation of Taylor expansion. As an easily implemented alternative of PH cure model, it not only infers associations between survival probabilities of the two study arms among patients without long-term survival (poor-responders), but also estimates differences in proportion (DP) between arms among patients in the long-tail segment of the survival curve (true-responders). Results: In KEYNOTE 042, the Cox-TEL HRs for death were statistically insignificant across all subgroups. The trend of DP, on the other hand, is positively related to that of PD-L1 TPS and inverted related to that of Cox HR when the PD-L1 ≥50% cohort is covered. In KEYNOTE 045, the Cox-TEL HRs suggested that for the poor-responders, pembrolizumab did not do better than chemotherapy in terms of overall survival (OS) and might do harm to the patients in terms of progression-free survival (PFS). For the true-responders, DPs of OS and PFS were both statistically significant (Table). Conclusions: Our data demonstrated the biases derived from insufficient data analyses and strengthened the necessity of analytic model revisits in the new oncology era of which cure for advanced cancers is no longer impossible. [Table: see text]


ESMO Open ◽  
2018 ◽  
Vol 3 (1) ◽  
pp. e000282 ◽  
Author(s):  
Anna Torgeson ◽  
Ignacio Garrido-Laguna ◽  
Randa Tao ◽  
George M Cannon ◽  
Courtney L Scaife ◽  
...  

BackgroundSurgical resection remains the best chance at long-term survival in pancreatic cancer, though margin-positive resections are associated with diminished survival. We examined the effect of margin-positive resection on survival, as well as the role and timing of additional therapies through the National Cancer Database (NCDB).Patients and methodsPatients with stage IIA–III pancreatic adenocarcinoma diagnosed from 2004 to 2013 were identified in NCDB. Survival was compared using univariate and multivariate Cox proportional hazards modelling for patients who underwent surgery with negative (R0), microscopically positive (R1) and macroscopically positive (R2) margins or non-surgical treatment. We further analysed patients by margin status, timing of additional therapy (neoadjuvant therapy (NAT) vs adjuvant therapy (AT) vs none) and clinical stage.ResultsWe analysed 44 852 patients. Median survival (MS) for patients who did not undergo surgery was 10.3 months, compared with 19.7 months for R0 (P<0.001), 14.3 months for R1 (P<0.001) and 9.8 months (P=0.07) for R2 resections. NAT (MS 23.2 months) was associated with improved survival compared with AT (MS 21.5 months) in negative-margin patients and equivalent (MS 17.6 months) to AT (MS 16.8 months) in positive-margin patients. Survival for stage III NAT positive-margin patients (MS 19.8 months) was equivalent to AT after negative margins (MS 18.4 months, P=1.00). Improved R0 rates were seen with NAT (88% vs 81%, P<0.001), especially in stage III patients (85% vs 59%, P<0.001).ConclusionR1 resections portend poorer survival than R0 but do not negate the benefit of surgery when additional therapy is given. NAT was associated with improved R0 rates and improved survival for stage III positive-margin patients.


2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Hanlong Zhu ◽  
Si Zhao ◽  
Kun Ji ◽  
Wei Wu ◽  
Jian Zhou ◽  
...  

Abstract Background: With the rapid advances in endoscopic technology, endoscopic therapy (ET) is increasingly applied to the treatment of small (≤20 mm) colorectal neuroendocrine tumors (NETs). However, long-term data comparing ET and surgery for management of T1N0M0 colorectal NETs are lacking. The purpose of this work was to compare overall survival (OS) and cancer-specific survival (CSS) of such patients with ET or surgery.Methods: Patients with T1N0M0 colorectal NETs were identified within the Surveillance Epidemiology and End Results (SEER) database (2004-2016). Demographics, tumor characteristics, therapeutic methods, and survival were compared. Propensity score matching (PSM) was used 1:3 and among this cohort, Cox proportional hazards regression models were performed to evaluate correlation between treatment and outcomes.Results: Of 4487 patients with T1N0M0 colorectal NETs, 1125 were identified in the matched cohort, among whom 819 (72.8%) underwent ET and 306 (27.2%) underwent surgery. There was no difference in the 5-year and 10-year OS and CSS rates between the 2 treatment modalities. Likewise, analyses stratified by tumor size and site showed that patients did not benefit more from surgery compared with ET. Moreover, multivariate analyses found no significant differences in OS [Hazard Ratio (HR) = 0.857, 95% Confidence Interval (CI): 0.513–1.431, P = 0.555] and CSS (HR = 0.925, 95% CI: 0.282–3.040, P = 0.898) between the 2 groups. Similar results were observed when comparisons were limited to patients with different tumor size and site.Conclusions: In this population-based study, patients treated endoscopically had comparable long-term survival compared with those treated surgically, which demonstrates ET as an alternative to surgery in T1N0M0 colorectal NETs.


2019 ◽  
Vol 37 (4_suppl) ◽  
pp. 418-418
Author(s):  
Oluwadamilola Temilade Oladeru ◽  
Eugene J Vaios ◽  
Christine Eyler ◽  
Bridget N. Noe ◽  
Carlos Fernandez Del-Castillo ◽  
...  

418 Background: Traditionally, the role of localized therapy for metastatic pancreatic cancer (MPC) has been limited. However, with more effective systemic therapies, recent studies have explored a potential role for local therapies. We aimed to report outcomes following SBRT (stereotactic body radiation therapy) for liver metastases (LM) in setting of MPC and to identify predictors of response. Methods: 41 patients who underwent ablative RT to LM for MPC (2005-17) were retrospectively identified. Median RT dose was 50 Gy (range: 8-60 Gy), delivered in 5-6 fractions. Kaplan Meier method was used to calculate local control (LC), progression-free survival (PFS) and overall survival (OS). Univariate (UVA) and multivariate (MVA) Cox proportional hazards models were used to identify predictors of clinical outcomes. Results: Median follow up was 14.6 months. This cohort included 19 men and 22 women. 61% of pts had metachronous LM, 39% had synchronous LM. At time of RT, the treated lesion was stable /responding to chemotherapy (CTX) in 36.6% of pts; 46.3% were progressing with mixed response; 17% were off/refused CTX. Median number of prior CTX regimens was 2 (range: 0-5). Median number of LM was 1 (range: 1-4). Median pre-RT CEA was 7 ng/mL, median pre-RT CA19-9 was 354 U/ml. The 12-month outcomes were 75.8% LC, 16.5% PFS, and 36.3% OS. 8/41 (20%) patients were off CTX for ≥ 4 months. On UVA for LC, pre-RT CA19-9 (log10 scale) was associated with LC (HR 2.28, p = 0.03). Timing of LM, CTX response of LM, number of lesions, RT dose and CEA did not predict LC. On UVA for PFS, extrahepatic disease at time of RT was associated with worse PFS (HR: 2.47, p = 0.04), and response to CTX (progressive vs. stable/responding) approached significance (HR 1.83, p = 0.10). On UVA for OS, lower pre-RT CEA (HR 1.009, p = 0.03), lower pre-RT CA19-9 (HR 1.67, p = 0.01), and response to CTX (HR 6.42, p < 0.001) were associated with improved OS. On MVA for OS, response to CTX at time of liver RT remained significant for OS. Conclusions: SBRT of LM for MPC offers high rate of LC. In a small subset of patients, SBRT to LM may offer prolonged duration off systemic therapy. Lower pre-RT CA 19-9 and CEA, absence of extrahepatic disease, and stability/response of CTX at time of liver RT may select for patients most likely to benefit.


2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Wenhao Chen ◽  
Zijian Zhang ◽  
Huan Wang ◽  
Li Xiong ◽  
Yu Wen ◽  
...  

Abstract Background: Although evidence for the application of albumin–bilirubin (ALBI) grading system to assess liver function in hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) is available, less is known whether it can be applied to determine the prognosis of single HCC with different tumor sizes. This study aimed to address this gap.Methods: Here, we enrolled patients who underwent hepatectomy due to single HCC from the year 2010 to 2014. Analyses were performed to test the potential of ALBI grading system to monitor the long-term survival of single HCC subjects with varying tumor sizes.Results: Overall, 265 participants were recruited. The overall survival (OS) among patients whose tumors were ≤ 7 cm was remarkably higher compared to those whose tumors were > 7 cm. The Cox proportional hazards regression model identified the tumor differentiation grade, ALBI grade, and maximum tumor size as key determinants of the OS. The ALBI grade could stratify the patients who had a single tumor ≤ 7 cm into two distinct groups with different prognoses. The OS between ALBI grades 1 and 2 was comparable for patients who had a single tumor > 7 cm.Conclusions: We show that ALBI grading system can predict disease outcomes of single HCC patients with tumor size ≤ 7 cm. However, the ALBI grade may not predict capability the prognosis of patients with single tumor > 7 cm.


2019 ◽  
Vol 37 (4_suppl) ◽  
pp. 358-358 ◽  
Author(s):  
Arthur Winer ◽  
Elizabeth A. Handorf ◽  
Lavanya Nagappan ◽  
Aryeh Blumenreich ◽  
Farhana Chowdhury ◽  
...  

358 Background: The median age at diagnosis for metastatic pancreatic cancer (mPC) is 72. Gemcitabine and Nab-Paclitaxel (GA) is often the preferred chemo regimen in this population due to presumed reduced toxicity compared with FOLFIRINOX. While the traditional GA schedule (TDS) includes treatment on days 1, 8, and 15 of a 28-day cycle, it can cause side effects and patients often require dose reductions. There is data for a modified dosing schedule (MDS) treating only on day 1 and 15. Therefore, we retrospectively analyzed our older adults treated with GA using the TDS versus the MDS and compared tolerability and outcomes between the two groups. Methods: We identified pts with mPC >64 y/o treated with GA at Fox Chase Cancer Center between 1/2010 - 7/2018 and collected their demographic, disease and treatment information. We analyzed discrete variables using Fisher’s exact test and continuous variables using Wilcoxon tests. Overall survival (OS) was analyzed by the Kaplan-Meier method and Cox proportional hazards regression. Results: Fifty-six pts were identified with a median age at diagnosis of 71 (range: 64-90) and 67.8% with metastatic disease at presentation. 57% received GA in the first line. 44% were treated with TDS while 56% received a MDS; an older median age was seen in the MDS group (73 vs 69 y/o, p<0.001). Up front dose reductions of GA were seen in 24% in the TDS vs 48% in MDS, and they were more common with nab-paclitaxel (26% in MDS vs 10% in TDS) than with gemcitabine (two pts in TDS vs one pt in MDS). Of pts who began with TDS only 11 (19% of all pts) were able to tolerate it without adjustment throughout treatment; 14 (25%) transitioned to the MDS. More pts suffered grade ≥3 toxicity with the TDS vs. MDS (68% vs. 51%; p=0.27) and more required a dose reduction (TDS 72% vs. MDS 48%; p=0.1). 58% required an additional GA dose reduction over the course of treatment. Median OS among GA treated pts in the front line (n=32) was not significantly different (MDS: 11.7 mo vs. TDS: 13 mo; p=0.1). Conclusions: These results demonstrate tolerability and similar efficacy of the GA MDS among older adults with mPC. Given the limited sample size, further studies are required to help establish the appropriate therapy for older patients.


2020 ◽  
Vol 132 (4) ◽  
pp. 998-1005 ◽  
Author(s):  
Haihui Jiang ◽  
Yong Cui ◽  
Xiang Liu ◽  
Xiaohui Ren ◽  
Mingxiao Li ◽  
...  

OBJECTIVEThe aim of this study was to investigate the relationship between extent of resection (EOR) and survival in terms of clinical, molecular, and radiological factors in high-grade astrocytoma (HGA).METHODSClinical and radiological data from 585 cases of molecularly defined HGA were reviewed. In each case, the EOR was evaluated twice: once according to contrast-enhanced T1-weighted images (CE-T1WI) and once according to fluid attenuated inversion recovery (FLAIR) images. The ratio of the volume of the region of abnormality in CE-T1WI to that in FLAIR images (VFLAIR/VCE-T1WI) was calculated and a receiver operating characteristic curve was used to determine the optimal cutoff value for that ratio. Univariate and multivariate analyses were performed to identify the prognostic value of each factor.RESULTSBoth the EOR evaluated from CE-T1WI and the EOR evaluated from FLAIR could divide the whole cohort into 4 subgroups with different survival outcomes (p < 0.001). Cases were stratified into 2 subtypes based on VFLAIR/VCE-T1WIwith a cutoff of 10: a proliferation-dominant subtype and a diffusion-dominant subtype. Kaplan-Meier analysis showed a significant survival advantage for the proliferation-dominant subtype (p < 0.0001). The prognostic implication has been further confirmed in the Cox proportional hazards model (HR 1.105, 95% CI 1.078–1.134, p < 0.0001). The survival of patients with proliferation-dominant HGA was significantly prolonged in association with extensive resection of the FLAIR abnormality region beyond contrast-enhancing tumor (p = 0.03), while no survival benefit was observed in association with the extensive resection in the diffusion-dominant subtype (p=0.86).CONCLUSIONSVFLAIR/VCE-T1WIis an important classifier that could divide the HGA into 2 subtypes with distinct invasive features. Patients with proliferation-dominant HGA can benefit from extensive resection of the FLAIR abnormality region, which provides the theoretical basis for a personalized resection strategy.


Risks ◽  
2021 ◽  
Vol 9 (6) ◽  
pp. 103
Author(s):  
Morne Joubert ◽  
Tanja Verster ◽  
Helgard Raubenheimer ◽  
Willem D. Schutte

Survival analysis is one of the techniques that could be used to predict loss given default (LGD) for regulatory capital (Basel) purposes. When using survival analysis to model LGD, a proposed methodology is the default weighted survival analysis (DWSA) method. This paper is aimed at adapting the DWSA method (used to model Basel LGD) to estimate the LGD for International Financial Reporting Standard (IFRS) 9 impairment requirements. The DWSA methodology allows for over recoveries, default weighting and negative cashflows. For IFRS 9, this methodology should be adapted, as the estimated LGD is a function of in the expected credit losses (ECL). Our proposed IFRS 9 LGD methodology makes use of survival analysis to estimate the LGD. The Cox proportional hazards model allows for a baseline survival curve to be adjusted to produce survival curves for different segments of the portfolio. The forward-looking LGD values are adjusted for different macro-economic scenarios and the ECL is calculated for each scenario. These ECL values are probability weighted to produce a final ECL estimate. We illustrate our proposed IFRS 9 LGD methodology and ECL estimation on a dataset from a retail portfolio of a South African bank.


Circulation ◽  
2020 ◽  
Vol 142 (Suppl_3) ◽  
Author(s):  
Samuel T Kim ◽  
Mark R Helmers ◽  
Peter Altshuler ◽  
Amit Iyengar ◽  
Jason Han ◽  
...  

Introduction: Although guidelines for heart transplant currently recommend against donors weighing ≥ 30% less than the recipient, recent studies have shown that the detriment of under-sizing may not be as severe in obese recipients. Furthermore, predicted heart mass (PHM) has been shown to be more reliable for size matching compared to metrics such as weight and body surface area. In this study, we use PHM to characterize the effects of undersized heart transplantation (UHT) in obese vs. non-obese recipients. Methods: Retrospective analysis of the UNOS database was performed for heart transplants from Jan. 1995 to Sep. 2020. Recipients were stratified by obese (BMI ≥ 30) and non-obese (30 > BMI ≥ 18.5). Undersized donors were defined as PHM ≥ 20% less than recipient PHM. Obese and non-obese populations separately underwent propensity score matching, and Kaplan-Meier estimates were used to graph survival. Multivariable Cox proportional-hazards analyses were used to adjust for confounders and estimate the hazard ratio for death attributable to under-sizing. Results: Overall, 50,722 heart transplants were included in the analysis. Propensity-score matching resulted in 2,214, and 1,011 well-matched pairs, respectively, for non-obese and obese populations. UHT in non-obese recipients resulted in similar 30-day mortality (5.7% vs. 6.3%, p = 0.38), but worse 15-year survival (38% vs. 35%, P = 0.04). In contrast, obese recipients with UHT saw similar 30-day mortality (6.4% vs. 5.5%, p = 0.45) and slightly increased 15-year survival (31% vs. 35%, P = 0.04). Multivariate Cox analysis showed that UHT resulted in an adjusted hazard ratio of 1.08 (95% CI 1.01 - 1.16) in non-obese recipients, and 0.87 (95% CI 0.78 - 0.98) in obese recipients. Conclusions: Non-obese patients with UHT saw worse long-term survival, while obese patients with UHT saw slightly increased survival. These findings may warrant reevaluation of the current size criteria for obese patients awaiting a heart.


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