scholarly journals Validation and Projections of Climate Characteristics in the Saginaw Bay Watershed, MI, for Hydrologic Modeling Applications

2021 ◽  
Vol 3 ◽  
Author(s):  
Daria B. Kluver ◽  
Wendy Robertson
Keyword(s):  
Hydrologic Modeling ◽  
Hydrologic Model ◽  
First Century ◽  
Mean Annual Precipitation ◽  
Daily Maximum ◽  
Climate Projections ◽  
Hydrologic Models ◽  
Flood Prediction ◽  
Saginaw Bay ◽  
Twenty First Century

Fundamental differences in the nature of climate and hydrologic models make coupling of future climate projections to models of watershed hydrology challenging. This study uses the NCAR Weather Research and Forecast model (WRF) to dynamically downscale climate simulations over the Saginaw Bay Watershed, MI and prepare the results for input into semi-distributed hydrologic models. One realization of the bias-corrected NCAR CESM1 model's RCP 8.5 climate scenario is dynamically downscaled at a spatial resolution of 3 km by 3 km for the end of the twenty-first century and validated based on a downscaled run for the end of the twentieth century in comparison to ASOS and NWS COOP stations. Bias-correction is conducted using Quantile Mapping to correct daily maximum and minimum temperature, precipitation, and relative humidity for use in future hydrologic model experiments. In the Saginaw Bay Watershed the end of the twenty-first century is projected to see maximum and minimum average daily temperatures warming by 5.7 and 6.3°C respectively. Precipitation characteristics over the watershed show an increase in mean annual precipitation (average of +14.3 mm over the watershed), mainly due to increases in precipitation intensity (average of +0.3 mm per precipitation day) despite a decrease in frequency of −10.7 days per year. The projected changes have substantial implications for watershed processes including flood prediction, erosion, mobilization of non-point source and legacy contaminants, and evapotranspirative demand, among others. We present these results in the context of usefulness of the downscaled and bias corrected data for semi-distributed hydrologic modeling.

scholarly journals Physical Mechanisms Related to Climate-Induced Drying of Two Semiarid Watersheds in the Southwestern United States

2014 ◽  
Vol 15 (4) ◽  
pp. 1404-1418 ◽  
Author(s):  
Seshadri Rajagopal ◽  
Francina Dominguez ◽  
Hoshin V. Gupta ◽  
Peter A. Troch ◽  
Christopher L. Castro
Keyword(s):  
United States ◽  
The United States ◽  
Hydrologic Model ◽  
First Century ◽  
Climate Projections ◽  
Southwestern United States ◽  
Study Region ◽  
Model Average ◽  
Basin Scale ◽  
Twenty First Century

Abstract Water managers across the United States face the need to make informed policy decisions regarding long-term impacts of climate change on water resources. To provide a scientifically informed basis for this, the evolution of important components of the basin-scale water balance through the end of the twenty-first century is estimated. Bias-corrected and spatially downscaled climate projections, from phase 3 of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP3) of the World Climate Research Programme, were used to drive a spatially distributed Variable Infiltration Capacity (VIC) model of hydrologic processes in the Salt–Verde basin in the southwestern United States. From the suite of CMIP3 models, the authors select a five-model subset, including three that best reproduce the historical climatology for the study region, plus two others to represent wetter and drier than model average conditions, so as to represent the range of GCM prediction uncertainty. For each GCM, data for three emission scenarios (A1B, A2, and B1) were used to drive the hydrologic model into the future. The projections of this model ensemble indicate a statistically significant 25% decrease in streamflow by the end of the twenty-first century. The primary cause for this change is due to projected decreases in winter precipitation accompanied by significant (temperature driven) reductions in storage of snow and increased winter evaporation. The results show that water management in central Arizona is highly likely to be impacted by changes in regional climate.

Mid-twenty-first century global wave climate projections: Results from a dynamic CMIP5 based ensemble

2019 ◽  
Vol 172 ◽  
pp. 69-87 ◽  
Author(s):  
Gil Lemos ◽  
Alvaro Semedo ◽  
Mikhail Dobrynin ◽  
Arno Behrens ◽  
Joanna Staneva ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Wave Climate ◽  
First Century ◽  
Climate Projections ◽  
Twenty First Century

scholarly journals Quantifying Sources of Uncertainty in Projections of Future Climate*

2014 ◽  
Vol 27 (23) ◽  
pp. 8793-8808 ◽  
Author(s):  
Paul J. Northrop ◽  
Richard E. Chandler
Keyword(s):  
General Circulation ◽  
Climate Model ◽  
Internal Variability ◽  
Future Climate ◽  
First Century ◽  
Climate Projections ◽  
Large Contribution ◽  
Sources Of Uncertainty ◽  
Twenty First Century ◽  
Emissions Scenario

Abstract A simple statistical model is used to partition uncertainty from different sources, in projections of future climate from multimodel ensembles. Three major sources of uncertainty are considered: the choice of climate model, the choice of emissions scenario, and the internal variability of the modeled climate system. The relative contributions of these sources are quantified for mid- and late-twenty-first-century climate projections, using data from 23 coupled atmosphere–ocean general circulation models obtained from phase 3 of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP3). Similar investigations have been carried out recently by other authors but within a statistical framework for which the unbalanced nature of the data and the small number (three) of scenarios involved are potentially problematic. Here, a Bayesian analysis is used to overcome these difficulties. Global and regional analyses of surface air temperature and precipitation are performed. It is found that the relative contributions to uncertainty depend on the climate variable considered, as well as the region and time horizon. As expected, the uncertainty due to the choice of emissions scenario becomes more important toward the end of the twenty-first century. However, for midcentury temperature, model internal variability makes a large contribution in high-latitude regions. For midcentury precipitation, model internal variability is even more important and this persists in some regions into the late century. Implications for the design of climate model experiments are discussed.

Projected twenty-first-century changes in the Central American mid-summer drought using statistically downscaled climate projections

2017 ◽  
Vol 17 (8) ◽  
pp. 2421-2432 ◽  
Author(s):  
Edwin P. Maurer ◽  
Nicholas Roby ◽  
Iris T. Stewart-Frey ◽  
Christopher M. Bacon
Keyword(s):  
First Century ◽  
Central American ◽  
Climate Projections ◽  
Summer Drought ◽  
Twenty First Century

scholarly journals Examining cross-scale influences of forcing resolutions in a hillslope-resolving, integrated hydrologic model

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Miguel A. Aguayo ◽  
Alejandro N. Flores ◽  
James P. McNamara ◽  
Hans-Peter Marshall ◽  
Jodi Mead
Keyword(s):  
Hydrologic Modeling ◽  
Snow Water Equivalent ◽  
Spatial Scales ◽  
Water Storage ◽  
Hydrologic Model ◽  
Atmospheric Forcing ◽  
Hydrologic Models ◽  
Snow Water ◽  
Integrated Hydrologic Model ◽  
The Impact

Abstract. Water management in semiarid regions of the western United States requires accurate and timely knowledge of runoff generated by snowmelt. This information is used to plan reservoir releases for downstream users and hydrologic models play an important role in estimating the volume of snow stored in mountain watersheds that serve as source waters for downstream reservoirs. Physically based, integrated hydrologic models are used to develop spatiotemporally dynamic estimates of hydrologic states and fluxes based on understanding of the underlying biophysics of hydrologic response. Yet this class of models are associated with many issues that give rise to significant uncertainties in key hydrologic variables of interest like snow water storage and streamflow. Underlying sources of uncertainty include difficulties in parameterizing processes associated with nonlinearities of some processes, as well as from the large variability in the characteristic spatial and temporal scale of atmospheric forcing and land-surface water and energy balance and groundwater processes. Scale issues, in particular, can introduce systematic biases in integrated atmospheric and hydrologic modeling. Reconciling these discrepancies while maintaining computational tractability remains a fundamental challenge in integrated hydrologic modeling. Here we investigate the hydrologic impact of discrepancies between distributed meteorological forcing data exhibiting a range of spatial scales consistent with a variety of numerical weather prediction models when used to force an integrated hydrologic model associated with a corresponding range of spatial resolutions characteristic of distributed hydrologic modeling. To achieve this, we design and conduct a total of twelve numerical modeling experiments that seek to quantify the impact of applied resolution of atmospheric forcings on simulated hillslope-scale hydrologic state variables. The experiments are arranged in such way to assess the impact of four different atmospheric forcing resolutions (i.e., interpolated 30 m, 1 km, 3 km and 9 km) on two hydrologic variables, snow water equivalent and soil water storage, arranged in three hydrologic spatial resolution (i.e., 30 m, 90 m and 250 m). Results show spatial patterns in snow water equivalent driven by atmospheric forcing in hillslope-scale simulations and patterns mostly driven by topographical characteristics (i.e., slope and aspect) on coarser simulations. Similar patterns are observed in soil water storage however, in addition to that, large errors are encountered primarily in riparian areas of the watershed on coarser simulations. The Weather Research Forecasting (WRF) model is used to develop the environmental forcing variables required as input to the integrated hydrologic model. WRF is an open source, community supported coupled land-atmosphere model capable of capturing spatial scales that permit convection. The integrated hydrologic modeling framework used in this work coincides with the ParFlow open-source surface-subsurface hydrology model. This work has important implications for the use of atmospheric and integrated hydrologic models in remote and ungauged areas. In particular, this work has potential ramifications for the design and development of observing system simulation experiments (OSSEs) in complex and snow-dominated landscapes. OSSEs are critical in constraining the performance characteristics of Earth-observing satellites.

scholarly journals Summer maximum temperature over the gulf cooperation council states in the twenty-first century: multimodel simulations overview

2020 ◽  
Vol 13 (12) ◽  
Author(s):  
Mansour Almazroui
Keyword(s):  
Gulf Cooperation Council ◽  
Global Climate Models ◽  
First Century ◽  
Maximum Temperature ◽  
Daily Maximum Temperature ◽  
Daily Maximum ◽  
Gcc Countries ◽  
The Future ◽  
Summer Maximum ◽  
Twenty First Century

Abstract The present study analyzes the Survivability for a Fit Human Threshold (SFHT) maximum temperature during the summer (June–August) over the six Middle Eastern countries known as the Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) in the twenty-first century. An ensemble of three dynamically downscaled global climate models available from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5) under the Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs) RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 emission scenarios is used to analyze the future climate (2006–2099) over the region. The ground-truth air temperature for ten major cities across the GCC countries is utilized for model evaluation and to estimate the model-simulated temperature biases. Both positive and negative biases found during the present climate (1976–2005) are used to adjust the future temperature changes. These adjustments show that the summer maximum temperature is likely to increase continuously for most cities in the GCC countries at the rate of about 0.2 °C (0.6 °C) per decade under RCP4.5 (RCP8.5) for the future period (2020–2099), which is significant at the 99% confidence level. For RCP8.5, the adjusted summer maximum temperature may exceed the SFHT limit of 42 °C in five capital cities of the GCC states and four major cities of Saudi Arabia. The projections based on adjusted values indicate that the average summer maximum temperature should not exceed 52 °C in any city investigated by the end of the twenty-first century. The daily maximum temperature is projected to exceed 55 °C in some cities in the GCC region by the end of the twenty-first century under a business-as-usual scenario that seems to be unrealistic if the biases are not taken into account. It is highly recommended that the GCC states should coordinate their efforts to respond appropriately to these projections using large ensembles of multimodel simulations while allowing for the associated uncertainty.

Twenty-First-Century Snowfall and Snowpack Changes over the Southern California Mountains

2015 ◽  
Vol 29 (1) ◽  
pp. 91-110 ◽  
Author(s):  
Fengpeng Sun ◽  
Alex Hall ◽  
Marla Schwartz ◽  
Daniel B. Walton ◽  
Neil Berg
Keyword(s):  
General Circulation ◽  
Southern California ◽  
Snow Water Equivalent ◽  
Coupled Model ◽  
General Circulation Models ◽  
First Century ◽  
Climate Projections ◽  
Rcp Scenarios ◽  
Ensemble Mean ◽  
Twenty First Century

Abstract Future snowfall and snowpack changes over the mountains of Southern California are projected using a new hybrid dynamical–statistical framework. Output from all general circulation models (GCMs) in phase 5 of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project archive is downscaled to 2-km resolution over the region. Variables pertaining to snow are analyzed for the middle (2041–60) and end (2081–2100) of the twenty-first century under two representative concentration pathway (RCP) scenarios: RCP8.5 (business as usual) and RCP2.6 (mitigation). These four sets of projections are compared with a baseline reconstruction of climate from 1981 to 2000. For both future time slices and scenarios, ensemble-mean total winter snowfall loss is widespread. By the mid-twenty-first century under RCP8.5, ensemble-mean winter snowfall is about 70% of baseline, whereas the corresponding value for RCP2.6 is somewhat higher (about 80% of baseline). By the end of the century, however, the two scenarios diverge significantly. Under RCP8.5, snowfall sees a dramatic further decline; 2081–2100 totals are only about half of baseline totals. Under RCP2.6, only a negligible further reduction from midcentury snowfall totals is seen. Because of the spread in the GCM climate projections, these figures are all associated with large intermodel uncertainty. Snowpack on the ground, as represented by 1 April snow water equivalent is also assessed. Because of enhanced snowmelt, the loss seen in snowpack is generally 50% greater than that seen in winter snowfall. By midcentury under RCP8.5, warming-accelerated spring snowmelt leads to snow-free dates that are about 1–3 weeks earlier than in the baseline period.

scholarly journals Projection of Global Wave Climate Change toward the End of the Twenty-First Century

2012 ◽  
Vol 26 (21) ◽  
pp. 8269-8288 ◽  
Author(s):  
Alvaro Semedo ◽  
Ralf Weisse ◽  
Arno Behrens ◽  
Andreas Sterl ◽  
Lennart Bengtsson ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Climate Model ◽  
Global Climate Model ◽  
Wave Climate ◽  
Ocean Model ◽  
First Century ◽  
Climate Projections ◽  
Moderate Increase ◽  
Intergovernmental Panel ◽  
Twenty First Century

Abstract Wind-generated waves at the sea surface are of outstanding importance for both their practical relevance in many aspects, such as coastal erosion, protection, or safety of navigation, and for their scientific relevance in modifying fluxes at the air–sea interface. So far, long-term changes in ocean wave climate have been studied mostly from a regional perspective with global dynamical studies emerging only recently. Here a global wave climate study is presented, in which a global wave model [Wave Ocean Model (WAM)] is driven by atmospheric forcing from a global climate model (ECHAM5) for present-day and potential future climate conditions represented by the Intergovernmental Panel for Climate Change (IPCC) A1B emission scenario. It is found that changes in mean and extreme wave climate toward the end of the twenty-first century are small to moderate, with the largest signals being a poleward shift in the annual mean and extreme significant wave heights in the midlatitudes of both hemispheres, more pronounced in the Southern Hemisphere and most likely associated with a corresponding shift in midlatitude storm tracks. These changes are broadly consistent with results from the few studies available so far. The projected changes in the mean wave periods, associated with the changes in the wave climate in the middle to high latitudes, are also shown, revealing a moderate increase in the equatorial eastern side of the ocean basins. This study presents a step forward toward a larger ensemble of global wave climate projections required to better assess robustness and uncertainty of potential future wave climate change.

scholarly journals A Review of Uncertainties in Global Temperature Projections over the Twenty-First Century

2008 ◽  
Vol 21 (11) ◽  
pp. 2651-2663 ◽  
Author(s):  
R. Knutti ◽  
M. R. Allen ◽  
P. Friedlingstein ◽  
J. M. Gregory ◽  
G. C. Hegerl ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Carbon Cycle ◽  
General Circulation ◽  
Climate Models ◽  
General Circulation Models ◽  
First Century ◽  
Global Temperature ◽  
Climate Projections ◽  
Uncertainty Range ◽  
Uncertainty Estimates ◽  
Twenty First Century

Abstract Quantification of the uncertainties in future climate projections is crucial for the implementation of climate policies. Here a review of projections of global temperature change over the twenty-first century is provided for the six illustrative emission scenarios from the Special Report on Emissions Scenarios (SRES) that assume no policy intervention, based on the latest generation of coupled general circulation models, climate models of intermediate complexity, and simple models, and uncertainty ranges and probabilistic projections from various published methods and models are assessed. Despite substantial improvements in climate models, projections for given scenarios on average have not changed much in recent years. Recent progress has, however, increased the confidence in uncertainty estimates and now allows a better separation of the uncertainties introduced by scenarios, physical feedbacks, carbon cycle, and structural uncertainty. Projection uncertainties are now constrained by observations and therefore consistent with past observed trends and patterns. Future trends in global temperature resulting from anthropogenic forcing over the next few decades are found to be comparably well constrained. Uncertainties for projections on the century time scale, when accounting for structural and feedback uncertainties, are larger than captured in single models or methods. This is due to differences in the models, the sources of uncertainty taken into account, the type of observational constraints used, and the statistical assumptions made. It is shown that as an approximation, the relative uncertainty range for projected warming in 2100 is the same for all scenarios. Inclusion of uncertainties in carbon cycle–climate feedbacks extends the upper bound of the uncertainty range by more than the lower bound.

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