scholarly journals Alpine Tundra Contraction under Future Warming Scenarios in Europe

Atmosphere ◽  
2020 ◽  
Vol 11 (7) ◽  
pp. 698
Author(s):  
José I. Barredo ◽  
Achille Mauri ◽  
Giovanni Caudullo
Keyword(s):  
Climate Model ◽  
Regional Climate ◽  
Alpine Tundra ◽  
Recreational Services ◽  
Future Warming ◽  
The Alps ◽  
Climate Model Simulations ◽  
Water Provision ◽  
European Mountains ◽  
Projected Changes

The alpine tundra is the highest elevation belt of high mountains. This zone is an important reservoir of freshwater and provides habitat to unique species. This study assesses projected changes in the areal extent of the alpine tundra climate zone in three warming levels in European mountains. The alpine tundra was delineated using the Köppen-Geiger climate classification. We used 11 regional climate model simulations from EURO-CORDEX disaggregated at a one-kilometre grid size representing the RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 scenarios in the 1.5, 2 and 3 °C warming levels. Mitigation represented by the 1.5 °C warming level reduces projected losses of the alpine tundra. However, even in this warming level the projected contraction is severe. In this case, the contraction in the Alps, Scandes and Pyrenees together is projected at between 44% and 48% of the present extent. The contraction is projected to climb in the 2 °C warming to above 57%, while the 3 °C warming would imply that the alpine tundra will be near to collapse in Europe with a contraction of 84% in the three regions, which host most of the alpine tundra in Europe. The projected changes have negative implications for a range of ecosystem services and biodiversity, such as habitat provision, water provision and regulation, erosion protection, water quality and recreational services.

Simple Nonparametric Techniques for Exploring Changing Probability Distributions of Weather

2005 ◽  
Vol 18 (21) ◽  
pp. 4344-4354 ◽  
Author(s):  
Christopher A. T. Ferro ◽  
Abdelwaheb Hannachi ◽  
David B. Stephenson
Keyword(s):  
Probability Distribution ◽  
Minimum Temperature ◽  
Climate Model ◽  
Probability Distributions ◽  
Regional Climate ◽  
Distribution Functions ◽  
Daily Minimum Temperature ◽  
Temperature And Precipitation ◽  
Climate Model Simulations ◽  
Projected Changes

Abstract Anthropogenic influences are expected to cause the probability distribution of weather variables to change in nontrivial ways. This study presents simple nonparametric methods for exploring and comparing differences in pairs of probability distribution functions. The methods are based on quantiles and allow changes in all parts of the probability distribution to be investigated, including the extreme tails. Adjusted quantiles are used to investigate whether changes are simply due to shifts in location (e.g., mean) and/or scale (e.g., variance). Sampling uncertainty in the quantile differences is assessed using simultaneous confidence intervals calculated using a bootstrap resampling method that takes account of serial (intraseasonal) dependency. The methods are simple enough to be used on large gridded datasets. They are demonstrated here by exploring the changes between European regional climate model simulations of daily minimum temperature and precipitation totals for winters in 1961–90 and 2071–2100. Projected changes in daily precipitation are generally found to be well described by simple increases in scale, whereas minimum temperature exhibits changes in both location and scale.

scholarly journals Projected Changes to Mean and Extreme Surface Wind Speeds for North America Based on Regional Climate Model Simulations

Atmosphere ◽  
2019 ◽  
Vol 10 (9) ◽  
pp. 497
Author(s):  
Dae Il Jeong ◽  
Laxmi Sushama
Keyword(s):  
Wind Speed ◽  
Climate Model ◽  
Regional Climate ◽  
Surface Wind ◽  
Annual Maximum ◽  
Wind Speeds ◽  
Extreme Wind ◽  
Mean Wind Speed ◽  
Climate Model Simulations ◽  
Projected Changes

This study evaluates projected changes to surface wind characteristics for the 2071–2100 period over North America (NA), using four Global Environmental Multiscale regional climate model simulations, driven by two global climate models (GCMs) for two Representative Concentration Pathway scenarios. For the current climate, the model simulates well the climatology of mean sea level pressure (MSLP) and associated wind direction over NA. Future simulations suggest increases in mean wind speed for northern and eastern parts of Canada, associated with decreases in future MSLP, which results in more intense low-pressure systems situated in those regions such as the Aleutian and Icelandic Lows. Projected changes to annual maximum 3-hourly wind speed show more spatial variability compared to seasonal and annual mean wind speed, indicating that extreme wind speeds are influenced by regional level features associated with instantaneous surface temperature and air pressure gradients. The simulations also suggest some increases in the future 50-year return levels of 3-hourly wind speed and hourly wind gusts, mainly due to increases in the inter-annual variability of annual maximum values. The variability of projected changes to both extreme wind speed and gusts indicate the need for a larger set of projections, including those from other regional models driven by many GCMs to better quantify uncertainties in future wind extremes and their characteristics.

scholarly journals 2 °C vs. High Warming: Transitions to Flood-Generating Mechanisms across Canada

Water ◽  
2021 ◽  
Vol 13 (11) ◽  
pp. 1494
Author(s):  
Bernardo Teufel ◽  
Laxmi Sushama
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Global Warming ◽  
Climate Model ◽  
Regional Climate ◽  
Adaptation Measures ◽  
Relative Contribution ◽  
Late 21St Century ◽  
Transient Climate Change ◽  
Projected Changes ◽  
Change Mitigation

Fluvial flooding in Canada is often snowmelt-driven, thus occurs mostly in spring, and has caused billions of dollars in damage in the past decade alone. In a warmer climate, increasing rainfall and changing snowmelt rates could lead to significant shifts in flood-generating mechanisms. Here, projected changes to flood-generating mechanisms in terms of the relative contribution of snowmelt and rainfall are assessed across Canada, based on an ensemble of transient climate change simulations performed using a state-of-the-art regional climate model. Changes to flood-generating mechanisms are assessed for both a late 21st century, high warming (i.e., Representative Concentration Pathway 8.5) scenario, and in a 2 °C global warming context. Under 2 °C of global warming, the relative contribution of snowmelt and rainfall to streamflow peaks is projected to remain close to that of the current climate, despite slightly increased rainfall contribution. In contrast, a high warming scenario leads to widespread increases in rainfall contribution and the emergence of hotspots of change in currently snowmelt-dominated regions across Canada. In addition, several regions in southern Canada would be projected to become rainfall dominated. These contrasting projections highlight the importance of climate change mitigation, as remaining below the 2 °C global warming threshold can avoid large changes over most regions, implying a low likelihood that expensive flood adaptation measures would be necessary.

scholarly journals Projected Changes in Extreme Temperature and Precipitation Indices Over CORDEX-MENA Domain

Atmosphere ◽  
2021 ◽  
Vol 12 (5) ◽  
pp. 622
Author(s):  
Tugba Ozturk ◽  
F. Sibel Saygili-Araci ◽  
M. Levent Kurnaz
Keyword(s):  
Regional Climate Model ◽  
Radiative Forcing ◽  
Climate Model ◽  
Global Climate Model ◽  
Regional Climate ◽  
Climate Extreme ◽  
Pronounced Increase ◽  
Temperature And Precipitation ◽  
Projected Changes ◽  
Extreme Indices

In this study, projected changes in climate extreme indices defined by the Expert Team on Climate Change Detection and Indices were investigated over Middle East and North Africa. Changes in the daily maximum and minimum temperature- and precipitation- based extreme indices were analyzed for the end of the 21st century compared to the reference period 1971–2000 using regional climate model simulations. Regional climate model, RegCM4.4 was used to downscale two different global climate model outputs to 50 km resolution under RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 scenarios. Results generally indicate an intensification of temperature- and precipitation- based extreme indices with increasing radiative forcing. In particular, an increase in annual minimum of daily minimum temperatures is more pronounced over the northern part of Mediterranean Basin and tropics. High increase in warm nights and warm spell duration all over the region with a pronounced increase in tropics are projected for the period of 2071–2100 together with decrease or no change in cold extremes. According to the results, a decrease in total wet-day precipitation and increase in dry spells are expected for the end of the century.

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