Dynamical Downscaling in Seasonal Climate Forecasts: Comparison between RegCM- and WRF-Based Approaches

The purpose of the present study is to assess the large-scale signal modulation produced by two dynamically downscaled Seasonal Forecasting Systems (SFSs) and investigate if additional predictive skill can be achieved, compared to the driving global-scale Climate Forecast System (CFS). The two downscaled SFSs are evaluated and compared in terms of physical values and anomaly interannual variability. Downscaled SFSs consist of two two-step dynamical downscaled ensembles of NCEP-CFSv2 re-forecasts. In the first step, the CFS field is downscaled from 100 km to 60 km over Southern Europe (D01). The second downscaling, driven by the corresponding D01, is performed at 12 km over Central Italy (D02). Downscaling is performed using two different Regional Climate Models (RCMs): RegCM v.4 and WRF 3.9.1.1. SFS skills are assessed over a period of 21 winter seasons (1982–2002), by means of deterministic and probabilistic approach and with a metric specifically designed to isolate downscaling signal over different percentiles of distribution. Considering the temperature fields and both deterministic and probabilistic metrics, regional-scale SFSs consistently improve the original CFS Seasonal Anomaly Signal (SAS). For the precipitation, the added value of downscaled SFSs is mainly limited to the topography driven refinement of precipitation field, whereas the SAS is mainly “inherited” by the driving CFS. The regional-scale SFSs do not seem to benefit from the second downscaling (D01 to D02) in terms of SAS improvement. Finally, WRF and RegCM show substantial differences in both SAS and climatologically averaged fields, highlighting a different impact of the common SST driving field.

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Enhanced Detectability of Added Value in Limited-Area Model Results Separated into Different Spatial Scales

Monthly Weather Review ◽

10.1175/mwr3183.1 ◽

2006 ◽

Vol 134 (8) ◽

pp. 2180-2190 ◽

Cited By ~ 74

Author(s):

Frauke Feser

Keyword(s):

Large Scale ◽

Climate Models ◽

Spatial Scales ◽

Regional Climate ◽

Regional Scale ◽

Regional Climate Models ◽

Added Value ◽

Limited Area ◽

Near Surface ◽

Pattern Correlation

Abstract Regional climate models (RCMs) are a widely used tool to describe regional-scale climate variability and change. However, the added value provided by such models is not well explored so far, and claims have been made that RCMs have little utility. Here, it is demonstrated that RCMs are indeed returning significant added value. Employing appropriate spatial filters, the scale-dependent skill of a state-of-the-art RCM (with and without nudging of large scales) is examined by comparing its skill with that of the global reanalyses driving the RCM. This skill is measured by pattern correlation coefficients of the global reanalyses or the RCM simulation and, as a reference, of an operational regional weather analysis. For the spatially smooth variable air pressure the RCM improves this aspect of the simulation for the medium scales if the RCM is driven with large-scale constraints, but not for the large scales. For the regionally more structured quantity near-surface temperature the added value is more obvious. The simulation of medium-scale 2-m temperature anomaly fields amounts to an increase of the mean pattern correlation coefficient up to 30%.

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Does Spectral Nudging Have an Effect on Dynamical Downscaling Applied in Small Regional Model Domains?

Monthly Weather Review ◽

10.1175/mwr-d-17-0087.1 ◽

2017 ◽

Vol 145 (10) ◽

pp. 4303-4311 ◽

Cited By ~ 8

Author(s):

Benjamin Schaaf ◽

Hans von Storch ◽

Frauke Feser

Keyword(s):

Large Scale ◽

Climate Models ◽

Dynamical Downscaling ◽

Regional Climate ◽

Regional Scale ◽

Regional Climate Models ◽

Small Scale ◽

Spectral Nudging ◽

Atmospheric State ◽

Model Region

Spectral nudging is a method that was developed to constrain regional climate models so that they reproduce the development of the large-scale atmospheric state, while permitting the formation of regional-scale details as conditioned by the large scales. Besides keeping the large-scale development in the interior close to a given state, the method also suppresses the emergence of ensemble variability. The method is mostly applied to reconstructions of past weather developments in regions with an extension of typically 1000–8000 km. In this article, the authors examine if spectral nudging is having an effect on simulations with model regions of the size of about 700 km × 500 km at midlatitudes located mainly over flat terrain. First two pairs of simulations are compared, two runs each with and without spectral nudging, and it is found that the four simulations are very similar, without systematic or intermittent phases of divergence. Smooth fields, which are mainly determined by spatial patterns, such as air pressure, show hardly any differences, while small-scale and heterogeneous fields such as precipitation vary strongly, mostly on the gridpoint scale, irrespective if spectral nudging is employed or not. It is concluded that the application of spectral nudging has little effect on the simulation when the model region is relatively small.

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Empirical-Statistical Downscaling: Nonlinear Statistical Downscaling

10.1093/acrefore/9780190228620.013.770 ◽

2018 ◽

Author(s):

Aristita Busuioc ◽

Alexandru Dumitrescu

Keyword(s):

Climate Change ◽

Statistical Downscaling ◽

Large Scale ◽

Climate Models ◽

Dynamical Downscaling ◽

Global Climate ◽

Regional Climate ◽

Regional Climate Models ◽

Global Climate Models ◽

Local Climate

This is an advance summary of a forthcoming article in the Oxford Research Encyclopedia of Climate Science. Please check back later for the full article.The concept of statistical downscaling or empirical-statistical downscaling became a distinct and important scientific approach in climate science in recent decades, when the climate change issue and assessment of climate change impact on various social and natural systems have become international challenges. Global climate models are the best tools for estimating future climate conditions. Even if improvements can be made in state-of-the art global climate models, in terms of spatial resolution and their performance in simulation of climate characteristics, they are still skillful only in reproducing large-scale feature of climate variability, such as global mean temperature or various circulation patterns (e.g., the North Atlantic Oscillation). However, these models are not able to provide reliable information on local climate characteristics (mean temperature, total precipitation), especially on extreme weather and climate events. The main reason for this failure is the influence of local geographical features on the local climate, as well as other factors related to surrounding large-scale conditions, the influence of which cannot be correctly taken into consideration by the current dynamical global models.Impact models, such as hydrological and crop models, need high resolution information on various climate parameters on the scale of a river basin or a farm, scales that are not available from the usual global climate models. Downscaling techniques produce regional climate information on finer scale, from global climate change scenarios, based on the assumption that there is a systematic link between the large-scale and local climate. Two types of downscaling approaches are known: a) dynamical downscaling is based on regional climate models nested in a global climate model; and b) statistical downscaling is based on developing statistical relationships between large-scale atmospheric variables (predictors), available from global climate models, and observed local-scale variables of interest (predictands).Various types of empirical-statistical downscaling approaches can be placed approximately in linear and nonlinear groupings. The empirical-statistical downscaling techniques focus more on details related to the nonlinear models—their validation, strengths, and weaknesses—in comparison to linear models or the mixed models combining the linear and nonlinear approaches. Stochastic models can be applied to daily and sub-daily precipitation in Romania, with a comparison to dynamical downscaling. Conditional stochastic models are generally specific for daily or sub-daily precipitation as predictand.A complex validation of the nonlinear statistical downscaling models, selection of the large-scale predictors, model ability to reproduce historical trends, extreme events, and the uncertainty related to future downscaled changes are important issues. A better estimation of the uncertainty related to downscaled climate change projections can be achieved by using ensembles of more global climate models as drivers, including their ability to simulate the input in downscaling models. Comparison between future statistical downscaled climate signals and those derived from dynamical downscaling driven by the same global model, including a complex validation of the regional climate models, gives a measure of the reliability of downscaled regional climate changes.

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Atmospheric triggering conditions and climatic disposition of landslides in Kyrgyzstan and Tajikistan at the beginning of the 21st century

10.5194/nhess-2020-418 ◽

2021 ◽

Author(s):

Xun Wang ◽

Marco Otto ◽

Dieter Scherer

Keyword(s):

Climate Models ◽

Dynamical Downscaling ◽

Regional Climate ◽

Predictive Performance ◽

Regional Climate Models ◽

Added Value ◽

Landslide Susceptibility Mapping ◽

Atmospheric Conditions ◽

Data Set ◽

Triggering Conditions

Abstract. Landslide is a major natural hazard in Kyrgyzstan and Tajikistan. Knowledge about atmospheric triggering conditions and climatic disposition of landslides in Kyrgyzstan and Tajikistan is limited, even though this topic has already been investigated thoroughly in other parts of the world. In this study, the newly developed, high-resolution High Asia Refined Analysis version 2 (HAR v2) data set generated by dynamical downscaling was combined with historical landslide inventories to analyze atmospheric conditions that initialized landslides in Kyrgyzstan and Tajikistan. The results indicate the crucial role of snowmelt in landslide triggering processes since it contributes to the initialization of 40 % of landslide events. Objective thresholds for rainfall, snowmelt, as well as the sum of rainfall and snowmelt (rainfall + snowmelt) were defined. Peak intensity (Imax) and accumulated amount (Q) of rainfall + snowmelt events yield the best predictive performance. Mean annual exceedance maps were derived from regional thresholds of Imax = 12.8 mm d−1 and Q = 17.2 mm for rainfall + snowmelt. Mean annual exceedance maps depict climatic disposition and have added value in landslide susceptibility mapping. The results reported in this study highlight the potential of dynamical downscaling products generated by regional climate models in landslide prediction.

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Improving runoff estimates from regional climate models: a performance analysis in Spain

Hydrology and Earth System Sciences ◽

10.5194/hess-16-1709-2012 ◽

2012 ◽

Vol 16 (6) ◽

pp. 1709-1723 ◽

Cited By ~ 18

Author(s):

D. González-Zeas ◽

L. Garrote ◽

A. Iglesias ◽

A. Sordo-Ward

Keyword(s):

Time Series ◽

Large Scale ◽

Climate Models ◽

Regional Climate ◽

Aridity Index ◽

Regional Climate Models ◽

Hydrologic Model ◽

Direct Runoff ◽

Interpolation Methods ◽

Basin Scale

Abstract. An important step to assess water availability is to have monthly time series representative of the current situation. In this context, a simple methodology is presented for application in large-scale studies in regions where a properly calibrated hydrologic model is not available, using the output variables simulated by regional climate models (RCMs) of the European project PRUDENCE under current climate conditions (period 1961–1990). The methodology compares different interpolation methods and alternatives to generate annual times series that minimise the bias with respect to observed values. The objective is to identify the best alternative to obtain bias-corrected, monthly runoff time series from the output of RCM simulations. This study uses information from 338 basins in Spain that cover the entire mainland territory and whose observed values of natural runoff have been estimated by the distributed hydrological model SIMPA. Four interpolation methods for downscaling runoff to the basin scale from 10 RCMs are compared with emphasis on the ability of each method to reproduce the observed behaviour of this variable. The alternatives consider the use of the direct runoff of the RCMs and the mean annual runoff calculated using five functional forms of the aridity index, defined as the ratio between potential evapotranspiration and precipitation. In addition, the comparison with respect to the global runoff reference of the UNH/GRDC dataset is evaluated, as a contrast of the "best estimator" of current runoff on a large scale. Results show that the bias is minimised using the direct original interpolation method and the best alternative for bias correction of the monthly direct runoff time series of RCMs is the UNH/GRDC dataset, although the formula proposed by Schreiber (1904) also gives good results.

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Simulating future precipitation extremes in a complex Alpine catchment

Natural Hazards and Earth System Science ◽

10.5194/nhess-13-263-2013 ◽

2013 ◽

Vol 13 (2) ◽

pp. 263-277 ◽

Cited By ~ 9

Author(s):

C. Dobler ◽

G. Bürger ◽

J. Stötter

Keyword(s):

Climate Change ◽

Large Scale ◽

Climate Models ◽

Regional Climate ◽

Regional Climate Models ◽

Precipitation Extremes ◽

Climate Projections ◽

Research Station ◽

Climate Change Scenarios ◽

Station Data

Abstract. The objectives of the present investigation are (i) to study the effects of climate change on precipitation extremes and (ii) to assess the uncertainty in the climate projections. The investigation is performed on the Lech catchment, located in the Northern Limestone Alps. In order to estimate the uncertainty in the climate projections, two statistical downscaling models as well as a number of global and regional climate models were considered. The downscaling models applied are the Expanded Downscaling (XDS) technique and the Long Ashton Research Station Weather Generator (LARS-WG). The XDS model, which is driven by analyzed or simulated large-scale synoptic fields, has been calibrated using ECMWF-interim reanalysis data and local station data. LARS-WG is controlled through stochastic parameters representing local precipitation variability, which are calibrated from station data only. Changes in precipitation mean and variability as simulated by climate models were then used to perturb the parameters of LARS-WG in order to generate climate change scenarios. In our study we use climate simulations based on the A1B emission scenario. The results show that both downscaling models perform well in reproducing observed precipitation extremes. In general, the results demonstrate that the projections are highly variable. The choice of both the GCM and the downscaling method are found to be essential sources of uncertainty. For spring and autumn, a slight tendency toward an increase in the intensity of future precipitation extremes is obtained, as a number of simulations show statistically significant increases in the intensity of 90th and 99th percentiles of precipitation on wet days as well as the 5- and 20-yr return values.

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Global Radiative Flux and Cloudiness Variability for the Period 1959–2010 in Belgium: A Comparison between Reanalyses and the Regional Climate Model MAR

Atmosphere ◽

10.3390/atmos9070262 ◽

2018 ◽

Vol 9 (7) ◽

pp. 262 ◽

Cited By ~ 4

Author(s):

Coraline Wyard ◽

Sébastien Doutreloup ◽

Alexandre Belleflamme ◽

Martin Wild ◽

Xavier Fettweis

Keyword(s):

Cloud Cover ◽

Climate Models ◽

Climate Model ◽

Regional Climate ◽

Regional Climate Models ◽

Horizontal Resolution ◽

Radiative Flux ◽

Added Value ◽

Historical Trends ◽

The Mean

The use of regional climate models (RCMs) can partly reduce the biases in global radiative flux (Eg↓) that are found in reanalysis products and global models, as they allow for a finer spatial resolution and a finer parametrisation of surface and atmospheric processes. In this study, we assess the ability of the MAR («Modèle Atmosphérique Régional») RCM to reproduce observed changes in Eg↓, and we investigate the added value of MAR with respect to reanalyses. Simulations were performed at a horizontal resolution of 5 km for the period 1959–2010 by forcing MAR with different reanalysis products: ERA40/ERA-interim, NCEP/NCAR-v1, ERA-20C, and 20CRV2C. Measurements of Eg↓ from the Global Energy Balance Archive (GEBA) and from the Royal Meteorological Institute of Belgium (RMIB), as well as cloud cover observations from Belgocontrol and RMIB, were used for the evaluation of the MAR model and the forcing reanalyses. Results show that MAR enables largely reducing the mean biases that are present in the reanalyses. The trend analysis shows that only MAR forced by ERA40/ERA-interim shows historical trends, which is probably because the ERA40/ERA-interim has a better horizontal resolution and assimilates more observations than the other reanalyses that are used in this study. The results suggest that the solar brightening observed since the 1980s in Belgium has mainly been due to decreasing cloud cover.

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Regional Climate Model Emulator based on Deep Learning: Concept and First Evaluation of a Novel Hybrid Downscaling Approach

10.21203/rs.3.rs-725819/v1 ◽

2021 ◽

Author(s):

Antoine Doury ◽

Samuel Somot ◽

Sébastien Gadat ◽

Aurélien Ribes ◽

Lola Corre

Keyword(s):

Climate Change ◽

Network Architecture ◽

Large Scale ◽

Climate Models ◽

Climate Model ◽

Regional Climate ◽

Regional Climate Models ◽

Future Climate ◽

Near Surface ◽

The Way

Abstract Providing reliable information on climate change at local scale remains a challenge of first importance for impact studies and policymakers. Here, we propose a novel hybrid downscaling method combining the strengths of both empirical statistical downscaling methods and Regional Climate Models (RCMs). The aim of this tool is to enlarge the size of high-resolution RCM simulation ensembles at low cost.We build a statistical RCM-emulator by estimating the downscaling function included in the RCM. This framework allows us to learn the relationship between large-scale predictors and a local surface variable of interest over the RCM domain in present and future climate. Furthermore, the emulator relies on a neural network architecture, which grants computational efficiency. The RCM-emulator developed in this study is trained to produce daily maps of the near-surface temperature at the RCM resolution (12km). The emulator demonstrates an excellent ability to reproduce the complex spatial structure and daily variability simulated by the RCM and in particular the way the RCM refines locally the low-resolution climate patterns. Training in future climate appears to be a key feature of our emulator. Moreover, there is a huge computational benefit in running the emulator rather than the RCM, since training the emulator takes about 2 hours on GPU, and the prediction is nearly instantaneous. However, further work is needed to improve the way the RCM-emulator reproduces some of the temperature extremes, the intensity of climate change, and to extend the proposed methodology to different regions, GCMs, RCMs, and variables of interest.

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The impact of RCM formulation and resolution on simulated precipitation in Africa

10.5194/esd-2019-55 ◽

2019 ◽

Cited By ~ 2

Author(s):

Minchao Wu ◽

Grigory Nikulin ◽

Erik Kjellström ◽

Danijel Belušić ◽

Colin Jones ◽

...

Keyword(s):

Climate Models ◽

Regional Climate ◽

Regional Climate Models ◽

Horizontal Resolution ◽

Added Value ◽

Primary Control ◽

Model Formulation ◽

Simulated Precipitation ◽

Mean Climate ◽

The Impact

Abstract. We investigate the impact of model formulation and horizontal resolution on the ability of Regional Climate Models (RCMs) to simulate precipitation in Africa. Two RCMs – SMHI-RCA4 and HCLIM38-ALADIN are utilized for downscaling the ERA-Interim reanalysis over Africa at four different resolutions: 25, 50, 100 and 200 km. Additionally to the two RCMs, two different configurations of the same RCA4 are used. Contrasting different RCMs, configurations and resolutions it is found that model formulation has the primary control over many aspects of the precipitation climatology in Africa. Patterns of spatial biases in seasonal mean precipitation are mostly defined by model formulation while the magnitude of the biases is controlled by resolution. In a similar way, the phase of the diurnal cycle is completely controlled by model formulation (convection scheme) while its amplitude is a function of resolution. Although higher resolution in many cases leads to smaller biases in the time mean climate, the impact of higher resolution is mixed. An improvement in one region/season (e.g. reduction of dry biases) often corresponds to a deterioration in another region/season (e.g. amplification of wet biases). The experiments confirm a pronounced and well known impact of higher resolution – a more realistic distribution of daily precipitation. Even if the time-mean climate is not always greatly sensitive to resolution, what the time-mean climate is made up of, higher order statistics, is sensitive. Therefore, the realism of the simulated precipitation increases as resolution increases. Our results show that improvements in the ability of RCMs to simulate precipitation in Africa compared to their driving reanalysis in many cases are simply related to model formulation and not necessarily to higher resolution. Such model formulation related improvements are strongly model dependent and in general cannot be considered as an added value of downscaling.

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Regional climate models downscaling in the Alpine area with multimodel superensemble

Hydrology and Earth System Sciences ◽

10.5194/hess-17-2017-2013 ◽

2013 ◽

Vol 17 (5) ◽

pp. 2017-2028 ◽

Cited By ~ 5

Author(s):

D. Cane ◽

S. Barbarino ◽

L. A. Renier ◽

C. Ronchi

Keyword(s):

Climate Models ◽

Regional Climate ◽

Control Period ◽

Regional Climate Models ◽

Global Climate Models ◽

Temperature Fields ◽

Optimal Interpolation ◽

Climate Change Scenarios ◽

Alpine Area ◽

Ensembles Project

Abstract. The climatic scenarios show a strong signal of warming in the Alpine area already for the mid-XXI century. The climate simulations, however, even when obtained with regional climate models (RCMs), are affected by strong errors when compared with observations, due both to their difficulties in representing the complex orography of the Alps and to limitations in their physical parametrization. Therefore, the aim of this work is to reduce these model biases by using a specific post processing statistic technique, in order to obtain a more suitable projection of climate change scenarios in the Alpine area. For our purposes we used a selection of regional climate models (RCMs) runs which were developed in the framework of the ENSEMBLES project. They were carefully chosen with the aim to maximise the variety of leading global climate models and of the RCMs themselves, calculated on the SRES scenario A1B. The reference observations for the greater Alpine area were extracted from the European dataset E-OBS (produced by the ENSEMBLES project), which have an available resolution of 25 km. For the study area of Piedmont daily temperature and precipitation observations (covering the period from 1957 to the present) were carefully gridded on a 14 km grid over Piedmont region through the use of an optimal interpolation technique. Hence, we applied the multimodel superensemble technique to temperature fields, reducing the high biases of RCMs temperature field compared to observations in the control period. We also proposed the application of a brand new probabilistic multimodel superensemble dressing technique, already applied to weather forecast models successfully, to RCMS: the aim was to estimate precipitation fields, with careful description of precipitation probability density functions conditioned to the model outputs. This technique allowed for reducing the strong precipitation overestimation, arising from the use of RCMs, over the Alpine chain and to reproduce well the monthly behaviour of precipitation in the control period.

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