scholarly journals Impact of Climate Variability on Climate Beach-Based Tourism Aptitude: A Case Study in the Atlantic Coast of SW Europe

Atmosphere ◽  
2021 ◽  
Vol 12 (10) ◽  
pp. 1328
Author(s):  
Domingo F. Rasilla
Keyword(s):  
Large Scale ◽  
Atlantic Coast ◽  
Circulation Pattern ◽  
Spatial And Temporal Variability ◽  
Western Coast ◽  
English Channel ◽  
Pca Analysis ◽  
Pattern Approach ◽  
Circulation Patterns

The spatial and temporal variability of the summer (July–August) climate beach-based tourism aptitude along the Atlantic coast of SW Europe from 1973 to 2017 and its links with the atmospheric circulation has been analyzed, combining an empirical index and a circulation pattern approach. Three different coastal sectors were defined from a PCA analysis: Galicia-N of Portugal, the Gulf of Biscay, and the western coast of France and the English Channel. Each region experienced a contrasted evolution due to geographical factors such as latitude, orography and exposure to the prevailing circulation patterns. No significant increase in aptitude was found because the background warming has not been balanced by trends in cloudiness or precipitation. Several possible causes are discussed, from local to large-scale, such as the recent evolution of the summer NAO pattern impacting the northernmost region.

Six-fold increase in historical Northern Hemisphere concurrent large heatwaves driven by warming and changing atmospheric circulations

2021 ◽  
pp. 1-39
Author(s):  
Cassandra D.W. Rogers ◽  
Kai Kornhuber ◽  
Sarah E. Perkins-Kirkpatrick ◽  
Paul C. Loikith ◽  
Deepti Singh
Keyword(s):  
Northern Hemisphere ◽  
Large Scale ◽  
Warm Season ◽  
Fold Increase ◽  
Circulation Pattern ◽  
Positive Influence ◽  
Climate Risks ◽  
Circulation Patterns ◽  
Multiple Regions ◽  
Barents And Kara Seas

AbstractSimultaneous heatwaves affecting multiple regions (referred to as concurrent heatwaves), pose compounding threats to various natural and societal systems, including global food chains, emergency response systems, and reinsurance industries. While anthropogenic climate change is increasing heatwave risks across most regions, the interactions between warming and circulation changes that yield concurrent heatwaves remain understudied. Here, we quantify historical (1979-2019) trends in concurrent heatwaves during the warm-season (May-September, MJJAS) across the Northern Hemisphere mid- to high-latitudes. We find a significant increase of ~46% in the mean spatial extent of concurrent heatwaves, ~17% increase in their maximum intensity, and ~6-fold increase in their frequency. Using Self-Organising Maps, we identify large-scale circulation patterns (300 hPa) associated with specific concurrent heatwave configurations across Northern Hemisphere regions. We show that observed changes in the frequency of specific circulation patterns preferentially increase the risk of concurrent heatwaves across particular regions. Patterns linking concurrent heatwaves across eastern North America, eastern and northern Europe, parts of Asia, and the Barents and Kara Seas, show the largest increases in frequency (~5.9 additional days per decade). We also quantify the relative contributions of circulation pattern changes and warming to overall observed concurrent heatwave day frequency trends. While warming has a predominant and positive influence on increasing concurrent heatwaves, circulation pattern changes have a varying influence and account for up to 0.8 additional concurrent heatwave days per decade. Identifying regions with an elevated risk of concurrent heatwaves and understanding their drivers is indispensable for evaluating projected climate risks on interconnected societal systems and fostering regional preparedness in a changing climate.

scholarly journals Greenland accumulation and its connection to the large-scale atmospheric circulation in ERA-Interim and paleo-climate simulations

2013 ◽  
Vol 9 (4) ◽  
pp. 3825-3870
Author(s):  
N. Merz ◽  
C. C. Raible ◽  
H. Fischer ◽  
V. Varma ◽  
M. Prange ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Atmospheric Circulation ◽  
Large Scale ◽  
Ice Core ◽  
Ice Sheet ◽  
Greenland Ice Sheet ◽  
Circulation Pattern ◽  
Local Flow ◽  
Large Scale Circulation ◽  
Circulation Patterns ◽  
Local Accumulation

Abstract. Accumulation and aerosol chemistry records from Greenland ice cores offer the potential to reconstruct variability in Northern Hemisphere atmospheric circulation over the last millennia. However, an important prerequisite for a reconstruction is the stable relationship between local accumulation at the ice core site with the respective circulation pattern throughout the reconstruction period. We address this stability issue by using a comprehensive climate model and performing time-slice simulations for the present, the pre-industrial, the early Holocene and the last glacial maximum (LGM). The relationships between accumulation, precipitation and atmospheric circulation are investigated on on various time-scales. The analysis shows that the relationship between local accumulation on the Greenland ice sheet and the large-scale circulation undergoes a significant seasonal cycle. As the weights of the individual seasons change, annual mean accumulation variability is not necessarily related to the same atmospheric circulation patterns during the different climate states. Within a season, local Greenland accumulation variability is indeed linked to a consistent circulation pattern, which is observed for all studied climate periods, even for the LGM, however these circulation patterns are specific for different regions on the Greenland ice sheet. The simulated impact of orbital forcing and changes in the ice-sheet topography on accumulation exhibits strong spatial variability emphasizing that accumulation records from different ice core sites cannot be expected to look alike since they include a distinct local signature. Accumulation changes between different climate periods are dominated by changes in the amount of snowfall and are driven by both thermodynamic and dynamic factors. The thermodynamic impact determines the strength of the hydrological cycle, and warmer temperatures are generally accompanied by an increase in Greenland precipitation. Dynamical drivers of accumulation changes are the large-scale circulation and the local orography having a distinct influence on the local flow characteristic and hence the amount of precipitation deposited in any Greenland region.

scholarly journals Stochastic dispersal increases the rate of upstream spread: a case study with green crabs on the northwest Atlantic coast

2017 ◽  
Author(s):  
A. Gharouni ◽  
M.A. Barbeau ◽  
J. Chassé ◽  
L. Wang ◽  
J. Watmough
Keyword(s):  
Larval Dispersal ◽  
Large Scale ◽  
Atlantic Coast ◽  
Carcinus Maenas ◽  
Spatial Dynamics ◽  
Larval Period ◽  
Spread Rate ◽  
Larval Behavior ◽  
Yearly Variation

AbstractDispersal heterogeneity is an important process that can compensate for downstream advection, enabling aquatic organisms to persist or spread upstream. Our main focus was the effect of year-to-year variation in larval dispersal on invasion spread rate. We used the green crab, Carcinus maenas, as a case study. This species was first introduced over 200 years ago to the east coast of North America, and once established has maintained a relatively consistent spread rate against the dominant current. We used a stage-structured, integro-difference equation model that couples a demographic matrix for population growth and dispersal kernels for spread of individuals within a season. The kernel describing larval dispersal, the main dispersive stage, was mechanistically modeled to include both drift and settlement rate components. It was parameterized using a 3-dimensional hydrodynamic model of the Gulf of St Lawrence, which enabled us to incorporate larval behavior, namely vertical swimming. Dispersal heterogeneity was modeled at two temporal scales: within the larval period (months) and over the adult lifespan (years). The kernel models variation within the larval period. To model the variation among years, we allowed the kernel parameters to vary by year. Results indicated that when dispersal parameters vary with time, knowledge of the time-averaged dispersal process is insufficient for determining the upstream spread rate of the population. Rather upstream spread is possible over a number of years when incorporating the yearly variation, even when there are only a few “good years” featured by some upstream dispersal among many “bad years” featured by only downstream dispersal. Accounting for annual variations in dispersal in population models is important to enhance understanding of spatial dynamics and population spread rates. Our developed model also provides a good platform to link the modeling of larval behavior and demography to large-scale hydrodynamic models.

scholarly journals Assessing local daily temperatures by means of novel analog approaches: a case study based on the city of Augsburg, Germany

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Christian Merkenschlager ◽  
Stephanie Koller ◽  
Christoph Beck ◽  
Elke Hertig
Keyword(s):  
Time Series ◽  
Large Scale ◽  
Climate Modeling ◽  
Selection Process ◽  
Urban Climate ◽  
Domain Size ◽  
Normal Vector ◽  
Circulation Patterns ◽  
The City

AbstractWithin the scope of urban climate modeling, weather analogs are used to downscale large-scale reanalysis-based information to station time series. Two novel approaches of weather analogs are introduced which allow a day-by-day comparison with observations within the validation period and which are easily adaptable to future periods for projections. Both methods affect the first level of analogy which is usually based on selection of circulation patterns. First, the time series were bias corrected and detrended before subsamples were determined for each specific day of interest. Subsequently, the normal vector of the standardized regression planes (NVEC) or the center of gravity (COG) of the normalized absolute circulation patterns was used to determine a point within an artificial coordinate system for each day. The day(s) which exhibit(s) the least absolute distance(s) between the artificial points of the day of interest and the days of the subsample is/are used as analog or subsample for the second level of analogy, respectively. Here, the second level of analogy is a second selection process based on the comparison of gridded temperature data between the analog subsample and the day of interest. After the analog selection process, the trends of the observation were added to the analog time series. With respect to air temperature and the exceedance of the 90th temperature quantile, the present study compares the performance of both analog methods with an already existing analog method and a multiple linear regression. Results show that both novel analog approaches can keep up with existing methods. One shortcoming of the methods presented here is that they are limited to local or small regional applications. In contrast, less pre-processing and the small domain size of the circulation patterns lead to low computational costs.

scholarly journals Spatial and Temporal Variability in Rainfall Erosivity Under Alpine Climate: A Slovenian Case Study Using Optical Disdrometer Data

2021 ◽  
Vol 9 ◽  
Author(s):  
Nejc Bezak ◽  
Sašo Petan ◽  
Matjaž Mikoš
Keyword(s):  
Temporal Variability ◽  
Large Scale ◽  
Annual Rainfall ◽  
Mean Annual Precipitation ◽  
Rainfall Erosivity ◽  
Spatial And Temporal Variability ◽  
Strongly Correlated ◽  
Erosion Rates ◽  
Precipitation Events

Rainfall erosivity is one of the most important parameters that influence soil erosion rates. It is characterized by a large spatial and temporal variability. For example, in Slovenia, which covers around 20,000 km2, the annual rainfall erosivity ranges from less than 1,000 MJ mm ha−1 h−1 to more than 10,000 MJ mm ha−1 h−1. Drop size distribution (DSD) data are needed to investigate rainfall erosivity characteristics. More than 2 years of DSD measurements using optical disdrometers located at six stations in Slovenia were used to investigate the spatial and temporal variability in rainfall erosivity in Slovenia. Experimental results have indicated that elevation is a poor predictor of rainfall erosivity and that erosivity is more strongly correlated to the mean annual precipitation. Approximately 90% of the total kinetic energy (KE) was accounted for in about 35% of 1 min disdrometer data. The highest 1 min intensities (I) and consequently also KE values were measured in summer followed by autumn and spring. The local KE-I equation yielded an acceptable fit to the measured data in case of all six stations. The relatively large percentage of 1 min rainfall intensities above 5 mm/h can at least partially explain some very high annual rainfall erosivity values (i.e., near or above 10,000 MJ mm ha−1 h−1). Convective and large-scale precipitation events also result in various rainfall erosivity characteristics. The station microlocation and wind impacts in case of some stations yielded relatively large differences between the data measured using the optical disdrometer and the pluviograph. Preliminary conclusions have been gathered, but further measurements are needed to get even better insight into spatial and temporal variability in rainfall erosivity under Alpine climate in Slovenia.

A Family With Autosomal-Dominant Progressive Sensorineural Hearing Loss

1996 ◽  
Vol 5 (1) ◽  
pp. 23-32 ◽  
Author(s):  
Chris Halpin ◽  
Barbara Herrmann ◽  
Margaret Whearty
Keyword(s):  
Speech Production ◽  
Hearing Aids ◽  
Role Models ◽  
Speech Intelligibility ◽  
Large Scale ◽  
Speech Language Pathology ◽  
The Family ◽  
Patient Will ◽  
Language Pathology

The family described in this article provides an unusual opportunity to relate findings from genetic, histological, electrophysiological, psychophysical, and rehabilitative investigation. Although the total number evaluated is large (49), the known, living affected population is smaller (14), and these are spread from age 20 to age 59. As a result, the findings described above are those of a large-scale case study. Clearly, more data will be available through longitudinal study of the individuals documented in the course of this investigation but, given the slow nature of the progression in this disease, such studies will be undertaken after an interval of several years. The general picture presented to the audiologist who must rehabilitate these cases is that of a progressive cochlear degeneration that affects only thresholds at first, and then rapidly diminishes speech intelligibility. The expected result is that, after normal language development, the patient may accept hearing aids well, encouraged by the support of the family. Performance and satisfaction with the hearing aids is good, until the onset of the speech intelligibility loss, at which time the patient will encounter serious difficulties and may reject hearing aids as unhelpful. As the histological and electrophysiological results indicate, however, the eighth nerve remains viable, especially in the younger affected members, and success with cochlear implantation may be expected. Audiologic counseling efforts are aided by the presence of role models and support from the other affected members of the family. Speech-language pathology services were not considered important by the members of this family since their speech production developed normally and has remained very good. Self-correction of speech was supported by hearing aids and cochlear implants (Case 5’s speech production was documented in Perkell, Lane, Svirsky, & Webster, 1992). These patients received genetic counseling and, due to the high penetrance of the disease, exhibited serious concerns regarding future generations and the hope of a cure.

The Boeing 787 Dreamliner--A case study in large-scale design integration

2008 ◽  
Author(s):  
D. L. McMullin ◽  
A. R. Jacobsen ◽  
D. C. Carvan ◽  
R. J. Gardner ◽  
J. A. Goegan ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Large Scale ◽  
Design Integration ◽  
Scale Design
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