scholarly journals Heavy Lake-Effect Snowfall Changes and Mechanisms for the Laurentian Great Lakes Region

Atmosphere ◽  
2021 ◽  
Vol 12 (12) ◽  
pp. 1577
Author(s):  
Oleksandr Huziy ◽  
Bernardo Teufel ◽  
Laxmi Sushama ◽  
Ram Yerubandi
Keyword(s):  
Great Lakes ◽  
Climate Model ◽  
Regional Climate ◽  
Laurentian Great Lakes ◽  
Lake Ice ◽  
Cold Air ◽  
Lake Effect ◽  
Projected Changes ◽  
Climate Analysis ◽  
Precipitation Ratio

Heavy lake-effect snowfall (HLES) events are snowfall events enhanced by interactions between lakes and overlying cold air. Significant snowfall rates and accumulations caused during such events disrupt socioeconomic activities and sometimes lead to lethal consequences. The aim of this study is to assess projected changes to HLES by the end of the century (2079–2100) using a regional climate model for the first time with 3D representation for the Laurentian Great Lakes. When compared to observations over the 1989–2010 period, the model is able to realistically reproduce key mechanisms and characteristics of HLES events, thus increasing confidence in future projections. Projected changes to the frequency and amount of HLES suggest decreasing patterns, during the onset, active and decline phases of HLES. Despite reduced lake ice cover that will allow enhanced lake–atmosphere interactions favouring HLES, the warmer temperatures and associated increase in liquid to solid precipitation ratio along with reduced cold air outbreaks contribute to reduced HLES in the future climate. Analysis of the correlation patterns for current and future climates further supports the weaker impact of lake ice fraction on HLES in future climates. Albeit the decreases in HLES frequency and intensity and projected increases in extreme snowfall events (resulting from all mechanisms) raise concerns for impacts on the transportation, infrastructure and hydropower sectors in the region.

scholarly journals Simulation of Heavy Lake-Effect Snowstorms across the Great Lakes Basin by RegCM4: Synoptic Climatology and Variability*,+

2013 ◽  
Vol 141 (6) ◽  
pp. 1990-2014 ◽  
Author(s):  
Michael Notaro ◽  
Azar Zarrin ◽  
Steve Vavrus ◽  
Val Bennington
Keyword(s):  
Great Lakes ◽  
Regional Climate Model ◽  
Climate Model ◽  
Regional Climate ◽  
Ice Cover ◽  
Synoptic Climatology ◽  
Great Lakes Basin ◽  
Lake Ice ◽  
Lake Effect ◽  
Lake Ice Cover

Abstract A historical simulation (1976–2002) of the Abdus Salam International Centre for Theoretical Physics Regional Climate Model, version 4 (ICTP RegCM4), coupled to a one-dimensional lake model, is validated against observed lake ice cover and snowfall across the Great Lakes Basin. The model reproduces the broad temporal and spatial features of both variables in terms of spatial distribution, seasonal cycle, and interannual variability, including climatological characteristics of lake-effect snowfall, although the simulated ice cover is overly extensive largely due to the absence of lake circulations. A definition is introduced for identifying heavy lake-effect snowstorms in regional climate model output for all grid cells in the Great Lakes Basin, using criteria based on location, wind direction, lake ice cover, and snowfall. Simulated heavy lake-effect snowstorms occur most frequently downwind of the Great Lakes, particularly to the east of Lake Ontario and to the east and south of Lake Superior, and are most frequent in December–January. The mechanism for these events is attributed to an anticyclone over the central United States and related cold-air outbreak for areas downwind of Lakes Ontario and Erie, in contrast to a nearby cyclone over the Great Lakes Basin and associated cold front for areas downwind of Lakes Superior, Huron, and Michigan.

scholarly journals Dynamically Downscaled Projections of Lake-Effect Snow in the Great Lakes Basin*,+

2015 ◽  
Vol 28 (4) ◽  
pp. 1661-1684 ◽  
Author(s):  
Michael Notaro ◽  
Val Bennington ◽  
Steve Vavrus
Keyword(s):  
Great Lakes ◽  
Regional Climate Model ◽  
Climate Model ◽  
Regional Climate ◽  
Ice Cover ◽  
First Century ◽  
Great Lakes Basin ◽  
Lake Effect ◽  
Lake Model ◽  
Twenty First Century

Abstract Projected changes in lake-effect snowfall by the mid- and late twenty-first century are explored for the Laurentian Great Lakes basin. Simulations from two state-of-the-art global climate models within phase 5 of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP5) are dynamically downscaled according to the representative concentration pathway 8.5 (RCP8.5). The downscaling is performed using the Abdus Salam International Centre for Theoretical Physics (ICTP) Regional Climate Model version 4 (RegCM4) with 25-km grid spacing, interactively coupled to a one-dimensional lake model. Both downscaled models produce atmospheric warming and increased cold-season precipitation. The Great Lakes’ ice cover is projected to dramatically decline and, by the end of the century, become confined to the northern shallow lakeshores during mid-to-late winter. Projected reductions in ice cover and greater dynamically induced wind fetch lead to enhanced lake evaporation and resulting total lake-effect precipitation, although with increased rainfall at the expense of snowfall. A general reduction in the frequency of heavy lake-effect snowstorms is simulated during the twenty-first century, except with increases around Lake Superior by the midcentury when local air temperatures still remain low enough for wintertime precipitation to largely fall in the form of snow. Despite the significant progress made here in elucidating the potential future changes in lake-effect snowstorms across the Great Lakes basin, further research is still needed to downscale a larger ensemble of CMIP5 model simulations, ideally using a higher-resolution, nonhydrostatic regional climate model coupled to a three-dimensional lake model.

Influence of the Laurentian Great Lakes on Regional Climate*

2013 ◽  
Vol 26 (3) ◽  
pp. 789-804 ◽  
Author(s):  
Michael Notaro ◽  
Kathleen Holman ◽  
Azar Zarrin ◽  
Elody Fluck ◽  
Steve Vavrus ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Great Lakes ◽  
Air Temperature ◽  
Climate Model ◽  
Regional Climate ◽  
Cloud Amount ◽  
Surface Energy Budget ◽  
Laurentian Great Lakes ◽  
Theoretical Physics ◽  
Shortwave Radiation ◽  
Near Surface

Abstract The influence of the Laurentian Great Lakes on climate is assessed by comparing two decade-long simulations, with the lakes either included or excluded, using the Abdus Salam International Centre for Theoretical Physics Regional Climate Model, version 4. The Great Lakes dampen the variability in near-surface air temperature across the surrounding region while reducing the amplitude of the diurnal cycle and annual cycle of air temperature. The impacts of the Great Lakes on the regional surface energy budget include an increase (decrease) in turbulent fluxes during the cold (warm) season and an increase in surface downward shortwave radiation flux during summer due to diminished atmospheric moisture and convective cloud amount. Changes in the hydrologic budget due to the presence of the Great Lakes include increases in evaporation and precipitation during October–March and decreases during May–August, along with springtime reductions in snowmelt-related runoff. Circulation responses consist of a regionwide decrease in sea level pressure in autumn–winter and an increase in summer, with enhanced ascent and descent in the two seasons, respectively. The most pronounced simulated impact of the Great Lakes on synoptic systems traversing the basin is a weakening of cold-season anticyclones.

The Role of Ice Cover in Heavy Lake-Effect Snowstorms over the Great Lakes Basin as Simulated by RegCM4

2013 ◽  
Vol 141 (1) ◽  
pp. 148-165 ◽  
Author(s):  
Steve Vavrus ◽  
Michael Notaro ◽  
Azar Zarrin
Keyword(s):  
Great Lakes ◽  
Regional Climate Model ◽  
Climate Model ◽  
Regional Climate ◽  
Ice Cover ◽  
Air Pressure ◽  
Great Lakes Basin ◽  
Lake Effect ◽  
The Impact

Abstract A 20-km regional climate model, the Abdus Salam International Centre for Theoretical Physics Regional Climate Model version 4 (ICTP RegCM4), is employed to investigate heavy lake-effect snowfall (HLES) over the Great Lakes Basin and the role of ice cover in regulating these events. When coupled to a lake model and driven with atmospheric reanalysis data between 1976 and 2002, RegCM4 reproduces the major characteristics of HLES. The influence of lake ice cover on HLES is investigated through 10 case studies (2 per Great Lake), in which a simulated heavy lake-effect event is compared with a companion simulation having 100% ice cover imposed on one or all of the Great Lakes. These experiments quantify the impact of ice cover on downstream snowfall and demonstrate that Lake Superior has the strongest, most widespread influence on heavy snowfall and Lake Ontario the least. Ice cover strongly affects a wide range of atmospheric variables above and downstream of lakes during HLES, including snowfall, surface energy fluxes, wind speed, temperature, moisture, clouds, and air pressure. Averaged among the 10 events, complete ice coverage causes major reductions in lake-effect snowfall (>80%) and turbulent heat fluxes over the lakes (>90%), less low cloudiness, lower temperatures, and higher air pressure. Another important consequence is a consistent weakening (30%–40%) of lower-tropospheric winds over the lakes when completely frozen. This momentum reduction further decreases over-lake evaporation and weakens downstream wind convergence, thus mitigating lake-effect snowfall. This finding suggests a secondary, dynamical mechanism by which ice cover affects downstream snowfall during HLES events, in addition to the more widely recognized thermodynamic influence.

scholarly journals 2 °C vs. High Warming: Transitions to Flood-Generating Mechanisms across Canada

Water ◽  
2021 ◽  
Vol 13 (11) ◽  
pp. 1494
Author(s):  
Bernardo Teufel ◽  
Laxmi Sushama
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Global Warming ◽  
Climate Model ◽  
Regional Climate ◽  
Adaptation Measures ◽  
Relative Contribution ◽  
Late 21St Century ◽  
Transient Climate Change ◽  
Projected Changes ◽  
Change Mitigation

Fluvial flooding in Canada is often snowmelt-driven, thus occurs mostly in spring, and has caused billions of dollars in damage in the past decade alone. In a warmer climate, increasing rainfall and changing snowmelt rates could lead to significant shifts in flood-generating mechanisms. Here, projected changes to flood-generating mechanisms in terms of the relative contribution of snowmelt and rainfall are assessed across Canada, based on an ensemble of transient climate change simulations performed using a state-of-the-art regional climate model. Changes to flood-generating mechanisms are assessed for both a late 21st century, high warming (i.e., Representative Concentration Pathway 8.5) scenario, and in a 2 °C global warming context. Under 2 °C of global warming, the relative contribution of snowmelt and rainfall to streamflow peaks is projected to remain close to that of the current climate, despite slightly increased rainfall contribution. In contrast, a high warming scenario leads to widespread increases in rainfall contribution and the emergence of hotspots of change in currently snowmelt-dominated regions across Canada. In addition, several regions in southern Canada would be projected to become rainfall dominated. These contrasting projections highlight the importance of climate change mitigation, as remaining below the 2 °C global warming threshold can avoid large changes over most regions, implying a low likelihood that expensive flood adaptation measures would be necessary.

scholarly journals Projected Changes in Extreme Temperature and Precipitation Indices Over CORDEX-MENA Domain

Atmosphere ◽  
2021 ◽  
Vol 12 (5) ◽  
pp. 622
Author(s):  
Tugba Ozturk ◽  
F. Sibel Saygili-Araci ◽  
M. Levent Kurnaz
Keyword(s):  
Regional Climate Model ◽  
Radiative Forcing ◽  
Climate Model ◽  
Global Climate Model ◽  
Regional Climate ◽  
Climate Extreme ◽  
Pronounced Increase ◽  
Temperature And Precipitation ◽  
Projected Changes ◽  
Extreme Indices

In this study, projected changes in climate extreme indices defined by the Expert Team on Climate Change Detection and Indices were investigated over Middle East and North Africa. Changes in the daily maximum and minimum temperature- and precipitation- based extreme indices were analyzed for the end of the 21st century compared to the reference period 1971–2000 using regional climate model simulations. Regional climate model, RegCM4.4 was used to downscale two different global climate model outputs to 50 km resolution under RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 scenarios. Results generally indicate an intensification of temperature- and precipitation- based extreme indices with increasing radiative forcing. In particular, an increase in annual minimum of daily minimum temperatures is more pronounced over the northern part of Mediterranean Basin and tropics. High increase in warm nights and warm spell duration all over the region with a pronounced increase in tropics are projected for the period of 2071–2100 together with decrease or no change in cold extremes. According to the results, a decrease in total wet-day precipitation and increase in dry spells are expected for the end of the century.

scholarly journals An update of IPCC climate reference regions for subcontinental analysis of climate model data: definition and aggregated datasets

2020 ◽  
Vol 12 (4) ◽  
pp. 2959-2970
Author(s):  
Maialen Iturbide ◽  
José M. Gutiérrez ◽  
Lincoln M. Alves ◽  
Joaquín Bedia ◽  
Ruth Cerezo-Mota ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Climate Model ◽  
Climate Adaptation ◽  
Regional Climate ◽  
Atmospheric Model ◽  
Future Climate Change ◽  
Intergovernmental Panel ◽  
Temperature And Precipitation ◽  
Scatter Plots ◽  
Projected Changes

Abstract. Several sets of reference regions have been used in the literature for the regional synthesis of observed and modelled climate and climate change information. A popular example is the series of reference regions used in the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) Special Report on Managing the Risks of Extreme Events and Disasters to Advance Climate Adaptation (SREX). The SREX regions were slightly modified for the Fifth Assessment Report of the IPCC and used for reporting subcontinental observed and projected changes over a reduced number (33) of climatologically consistent regions encompassing a representative number of grid boxes. These regions are intended to allow analysis of atmospheric data over broad land or ocean regions and have been used as the basis for several popular spatially aggregated datasets, such as the Seasonal Mean Temperature and Precipitation in IPCC Regions for CMIP5 dataset. We present an updated version of the reference regions for the analysis of new observed and simulated datasets (including CMIP6) which offer an opportunity for refinement due to the higher atmospheric model resolution. As a result, the number of land and ocean regions is increased to 46 and 15, respectively, better representing consistent regional climate features. The paper describes the rationale for the definition of the new regions and analyses their homogeneity. The regions are defined as polygons and are provided as coordinates and a shapefile together with companion R and Python notebooks to illustrate their use in practical problems (e.g. calculating regional averages). We also describe the generation of a new dataset with monthly temperature and precipitation, spatially aggregated in the new regions, currently for CMIP5 and CMIP6, to be extended to other datasets in the future (including observations). The use of these reference regions, dataset and code is illustrated through a worked example using scatter plots to offer guidance on the likely range of future climate change at the scale of the reference regions. The regions, datasets and code (R and Python notebooks) are freely available at the ATLAS GitHub repository: https://github.com/SantanderMetGroup/ATLAS (last access: 24 August 2020), https://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.3998463 (Iturbide et al., 2020).

scholarly journals Projected Changes of Precipitation IDF Curves for Short Duration under Climate Change in Central Vietnam

Hydrology ◽  
2018 ◽  
Vol 5 (3) ◽  
pp. 33 ◽  
Author(s):  
Nguyen Tien Thanh ◽  
Luca Dutto Aldo Remo
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Climate Model ◽  
Southern Oscillation ◽  
Regional Climate ◽  
Extreme Weather Events ◽  
Climate Data ◽  
Rcp Scenarios ◽  
Central Vietnam ◽  
Idf Curves ◽  
Projected Changes

In future years, extreme weather events are expected to frequently increase due to climate change, especially in the combination of climate change and events of El Niño–Southern Oscillation. This pays special attention to the construction of intensity–duration–frequency (IDF) curves at a tempo-spatial scale of sub-daily and sub-grid under a context of climate change. The reason for this is that IDF curves represent essential means to study effects on the performance of drainage systems, damps, dikes and reservoirs. Therefore, the objective of this study is to present an approach to construct future IDF curves with high temporo-spatial resolutions under climate change in central Vietnam, using the case of VuGia-ThuBon. The climate data of historical and future from a regional climate model RegCM4 forced by three global models MPI-ESM-MR, IPSL-CM5A-LR and ICHEC-EC-EARTH are used to re-grid the resolution of 10 km × 10 km grid spacing from 25 km × 25 km on the base of bilinear interpolation. A bias correction method is then applied to the finest resolution of a hydrostatic climate model for an ensemble of simulations. Furthermore, the IDF curves for short durations of precipitation are constructed for the historical climate and future climates under two representative concentration pathway (RCP) scenarios, RCP4.5 and RCP8.5, based on terms of correlation factors. The major findings show that the projected precipitation changes are expected to significantly increase by about 10 to 30% under the scenarios of RCP4.5 and RCP8.5. The projected changes of a maximum of 1-, 2-, and 3-days precipitation are expected to increase by about 30–300 mm/day. More importantly, for all return periods (i.e., 10, 20, 50, 100, and 200 years), IDF curves completely constructed for short durations of precipitation at sub-daily show an increase in intensities for the RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 scenarios.

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