An update of IPCC climate reference regions for subcontinental analysis of climate model data: definition and aggregated datasets

Abstract. Several sets of reference regions have been used in the literature for the regional synthesis of observed and modelled climate and climate change information. A popular example is the series of reference regions used in the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) Special Report on Managing the Risks of Extreme Events and Disasters to Advance Climate Adaptation (SREX). The SREX regions were slightly modified for the Fifth Assessment Report of the IPCC and used for reporting subcontinental observed and projected changes over a reduced number (33) of climatologically consistent regions encompassing a representative number of grid boxes. These regions are intended to allow analysis of atmospheric data over broad land or ocean regions and have been used as the basis for several popular spatially aggregated datasets, such as the Seasonal Mean Temperature and Precipitation in IPCC Regions for CMIP5 dataset. We present an updated version of the reference regions for the analysis of new observed and simulated datasets (including CMIP6) which offer an opportunity for refinement due to the higher atmospheric model resolution. As a result, the number of land and ocean regions is increased to 46 and 15, respectively, better representing consistent regional climate features. The paper describes the rationale for the definition of the new regions and analyses their homogeneity. The regions are defined as polygons and are provided as coordinates and a shapefile together with companion R and Python notebooks to illustrate their use in practical problems (e.g. calculating regional averages). We also describe the generation of a new dataset with monthly temperature and precipitation, spatially aggregated in the new regions, currently for CMIP5 and CMIP6, to be extended to other datasets in the future (including observations). The use of these reference regions, dataset and code is illustrated through a worked example using scatter plots to offer guidance on the likely range of future climate change at the scale of the reference regions. The regions, datasets and code (R and Python notebooks) are freely available at the ATLAS GitHub repository: https://github.com/SantanderMetGroup/ATLAS (last access: 24 August 2020), https://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.3998463 (Iturbide et al., 2020).

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An update of IPCC climate reference regions for subcontinental analysis of climate model data: Definition and aggregated datasets

10.5194/essd-2019-258 ◽

2020 ◽

Cited By ~ 2

Author(s):

Maialen Iturbide ◽

José Manuel Gutiérrez ◽

Lincoln Muniz Alves ◽

Joaquín Bedia ◽

Ezequiel Cimadevilla ◽

...

Keyword(s):

Climate Change ◽

Climate Models ◽

Climate Model ◽

Climate Adaptation ◽

Regional Climate ◽

Future Climate Change ◽

Temperature And Precipitation ◽

Data Definition ◽

Definition Of ◽

Projected Changes

Abstract. Several sets of reference regions have been proposed in the literature for the regional synthesis of observed and model-projected climate change information. A popular example is the set of reference regions introduced in the IPCC Special Report on Managing the Risks of Extreme Events and Disasters to Advance Climate Adaptation (SREX) based on a prior coarser selection and then slightly modified for the 5th Assessment Report of the IPCC. This set was developed for reporting sub-continental observed and projected changes over a reduced number (33) of climatologically consistent regions encompassing a representative number of grid boxes (the typical resolution of the 5th Climate Model Intercomparison Projection, CMIP5, climate models was around 2º). These regions have been used as the basis for several popular spatially aggregated datasets, such as the seasonal mean temperature and precipitation in IPCC regions for CMIP5. Here we present an updated version of the reference regions for the analysis of new observed and simulated datasets (including CMIP6) which offer an opportunity for refinement due to the higher model resolution (around 1º for CMIP6). As a result, the number of regions increased to 43 land plus 12 open ocean, better representing consistent regional climate features. The paper describes the rationale followed for the definition of the new regions and analyses their homogeneity. The regions are defined as polygons and are provided as coordinates and shapefile together with companion R and Python notebooks to illustrate their use in practical problems (trimming data, etc.). We also describe the generation of a new dataset with monthly temperature and precipitation spatially aggregated in the new regions, currently for CMIP5 (for backwards consistency) and CMIP6, to be extended to other datasets in the future (including observations). The use of these reference regions, dataset and code is illustrated through a worked example using scatter diagrams to offer guidance on the likely range of future climate change at the scale of reference regions. The regions, datasets and code (R and Python notebooks) are freely available at the ATLAS GitHub repository; https://github.com/SantanderMetGroup/ATLAS, doi:10.5281/zenodo.3688072 (Iturbide et al., 2020).

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Future climate change and it`s impact on precipitation and temperature in Ukraine

Ukrainian hydrometeorological journal ◽

10.31481/uhmj.16.2015.10 ◽

2017 ◽

pp. 76-82

Author(s):

V. Khokhlov ◽

N. Yermolenko

Keyword(s):

Climate Change ◽

Climatic Change ◽

Air Temperature ◽

Climate Model ◽

Global Climate ◽

Regional Climate ◽

Annual Precipitation ◽

Future Climate Change ◽

Temperature And Precipitation ◽

Southern Ukraine

Global climate change has provoked an active development in modern methods relating to the prediction of spatiotemporal hydrometeorological fields. Numerical modeling of nearest-future climatic changes allows to generate strategies of development for different areas of economic activity. The paper aims to assess the expected air temperature and precipitation features in Ukraine considering different scenarios of climatic change. The modeling future changes of air temperature and precipitation were carried out using the A1B and A2 scenarios of climatic change. The outcomes of regional climate model ECHAM5 from ENSEMBLES Project were used as initial data. It was revealed that the air temperature will gradually increase in most of Ukrainian regions. Moreover highest air temperature will be recorded in Southern Ukraine during 2031-2050. The analysis of linear trends for 2031-2050 showed that the air temperature for the scenario A1B will exhibit a tendency to the decrease of temperature. However, the annually mean temperature in 2031-2050 for the ‘moderate’ scenario A1B will be higher than for the ‘hard’, in terms of greenhouse gases concentrations, scenario A2. The annual precipitation in Ukraine, both for the A1B and A2 scenario, will slightly increase toward the 2050 with the exception of Southern Ukraine. Also, the highest annual precipitation will be registered in the western part of Ukraine, and lowest – in the southern one. The paper can be expanded to the analysis of future dangerous weather phenomena depending on the changes of air temperature and precipitation.

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A multi-model, multi-scenario, and multi-domain analysis of regional climate projections for the Mediterranean

Regional Environmental Change ◽

10.1007/s10113-019-01565-w ◽

2019 ◽

Vol 19 (8) ◽

pp. 2621-2635 ◽

Cited By ~ 10

Author(s):

George Zittis ◽

Panos Hadjinicolaou ◽

Marina Klangidou ◽

Yiannis Proestos ◽

Jos Lelieveld

Keyword(s):

Climate Change ◽

Regional Climate Model ◽

Mediterranean Region ◽

Climate Model ◽

Regional Climate ◽

Climate Change Signal ◽

Climate Projections ◽

Temperature And Precipitation ◽

The Mediterranean ◽

Projected Changes

AbstractObservation and model-based studies have identified the Mediterranean region as one of the most prominent climate change “hot-spots.” Parts of this distinctive region are included in several Coordinated Regional Downscaling Experiment (CORDEX) domains such as those for Europe, Africa, the Mediterranean, and the Middle East/North Africa. In this study, we compile and analyze monthly temperature and precipitation fields derived from regional climate model simulations performed over different CORDEX domains at a spatial resolution of 50 km. This unique multi-model, multi-scenario, and multi-domain “super-ensemble” is used to update projected changes for the Mediterranean region. The statistical robustness and significance of the climate change signal is assessed. By considering information from more than one CORDEX domains, our analysis addresses an additional type of uncertainty that is often neglected and is related to the positioning of the regional climate model domain. CORDEX simulations suggest a general warming by the end of the century (between 1 and 5 °C with respect to the 1986–2005 reference period), which is expected to be strongest during summer (up to 7 °C). A general drying (between 10 and 40%) is also inferred for the Mediterranean. However, the projected precipitation change signal is less significant and less robust. The CORDEX ensemble corroborates the fact that the Mediterranean is already entering the 1.5 °C climate warming era. It is expected to reach 2 °C warming well within two decades, unless strong greenhouse gas concentration reductions are implemented. The southern part of the Mediterranean is expected to be impacted most strongly since the CORDEX ensemble suggests substantial combined warming and drying, particularly for pathways RCP4.5 and RCP8.5.

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2 °C vs. High Warming: Transitions to Flood-Generating Mechanisms across Canada

Water ◽

10.3390/w13111494 ◽

2021 ◽

Vol 13 (11) ◽

pp. 1494

Author(s):

Bernardo Teufel ◽

Laxmi Sushama

Keyword(s):

Climate Change ◽

Global Warming ◽

Climate Model ◽

Regional Climate ◽

Adaptation Measures ◽

Relative Contribution ◽

Late 21St Century ◽

Transient Climate Change ◽

Projected Changes ◽

Change Mitigation

Fluvial flooding in Canada is often snowmelt-driven, thus occurs mostly in spring, and has caused billions of dollars in damage in the past decade alone. In a warmer climate, increasing rainfall and changing snowmelt rates could lead to significant shifts in flood-generating mechanisms. Here, projected changes to flood-generating mechanisms in terms of the relative contribution of snowmelt and rainfall are assessed across Canada, based on an ensemble of transient climate change simulations performed using a state-of-the-art regional climate model. Changes to flood-generating mechanisms are assessed for both a late 21st century, high warming (i.e., Representative Concentration Pathway 8.5) scenario, and in a 2 °C global warming context. Under 2 °C of global warming, the relative contribution of snowmelt and rainfall to streamflow peaks is projected to remain close to that of the current climate, despite slightly increased rainfall contribution. In contrast, a high warming scenario leads to widespread increases in rainfall contribution and the emergence of hotspots of change in currently snowmelt-dominated regions across Canada. In addition, several regions in southern Canada would be projected to become rainfall dominated. These contrasting projections highlight the importance of climate change mitigation, as remaining below the 2 °C global warming threshold can avoid large changes over most regions, implying a low likelihood that expensive flood adaptation measures would be necessary.

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Projected Changes in Extreme Temperature and Precipitation Indices Over CORDEX-MENA Domain

Atmosphere ◽

10.3390/atmos12050622 ◽

2021 ◽

Vol 12 (5) ◽

pp. 622

Author(s):

Tugba Ozturk ◽

F. Sibel Saygili-Araci ◽

M. Levent Kurnaz

Keyword(s):

Regional Climate Model ◽

Radiative Forcing ◽

Climate Model ◽

Global Climate Model ◽

Regional Climate ◽

Climate Extreme ◽

Pronounced Increase ◽

Temperature And Precipitation ◽

Projected Changes ◽

Extreme Indices

In this study, projected changes in climate extreme indices defined by the Expert Team on Climate Change Detection and Indices were investigated over Middle East and North Africa. Changes in the daily maximum and minimum temperature- and precipitation- based extreme indices were analyzed for the end of the 21st century compared to the reference period 1971–2000 using regional climate model simulations. Regional climate model, RegCM4.4 was used to downscale two different global climate model outputs to 50 km resolution under RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 scenarios. Results generally indicate an intensification of temperature- and precipitation- based extreme indices with increasing radiative forcing. In particular, an increase in annual minimum of daily minimum temperatures is more pronounced over the northern part of Mediterranean Basin and tropics. High increase in warm nights and warm spell duration all over the region with a pronounced increase in tropics are projected for the period of 2071–2100 together with decrease or no change in cold extremes. According to the results, a decrease in total wet-day precipitation and increase in dry spells are expected for the end of the century.

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Projected changes in temperature and precipitation over mainland Southeast Asia by CMIP6 models

Journal of Water and Climate Change ◽

10.2166/wcc.2021.015 ◽

2021 ◽

Author(s):

S. Supharatid ◽

J. Nafung ◽

T. Aribarg

Keyword(s):

Climate Change ◽

Coupled Model ◽

Southwest Monsoon ◽

Future Climate Change ◽

Boreal Summer ◽

Northeast Monsoon ◽

Adaptation Measures ◽

Mitigation And Adaptation ◽

Temperature And Precipitation ◽

Projected Changes

Abstract Five mainland SEA countries (Cambodia, Laos, Myanmar, Vietnam, and Thailand) are threatened by climate change. Here, the latest 18 Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 (CMIP6) is employed to examine future climate change in this region under two SSP-RCP (shared socioeconomic pathway-representative concentration pathway) scenarios (SSP2-4.5 and SSP5-8.5). The bias-corrected multi-model ensemble (MME) projects a warming (wetting) over Cambodia, Laos, Myanmar, Vietnam, and Thailand by 1.88–3.89, 2.04–4.22, 1.88–4.09, 2.03–4.25, and 1.90–3.96 °C (8.76–20.47, 12.69–21.10, 9.54–21.10, 13.47–22.12, and 7.03–15.17%) in the 21st century with larger values found under SSP5-8.5 than SSP2-4.5. The MME model displays approximately triple the current rainfall during the boreal summer. Overall, there are robust increases in rainfall during the Southwest Monsoon (3.41–3.44, 8.44–9.53, and 10.89–17.59%) and the Northeast Monsoon (−2.58 to 0.78, −0.43 to 2.81, and 2.32 to 5.45%). The effectiveness of anticipated climate change mitigation and adaptation strategies under SSP2-4.5 results in slowing down the warming trends and decreasing precipitation trends after 2050. All these findings imply that member countries of mainland SEA need to prepare for appropriate adaptation measures in response to the changing climate.

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Spatially resolved past and projected changes of the suitable thermal habitat of North Sea cod (Gadus morhua) under climate change

ICES Journal of Marine Science ◽

10.1093/icesjms/fsz132 ◽

2019 ◽

Vol 76 (7) ◽

pp. 2389-2403

Author(s):

Ismael Núñez-Riboni ◽

Marc H Taylor ◽

Alexander Kempf ◽

Miriam Püts ◽

Moritz Mathis

Keyword(s):

Climate Change ◽

North Sea ◽

Gadus Morhua ◽

Climate Model ◽

Regional Climate ◽

Change Scenario ◽

Intergovernmental Panel ◽

Southern Bight ◽

Spatially Resolved ◽

The North

Abstract Previous studies have identified changes in habitat temperature as a major factor leading to the geographical displacement of North Sea cod in the last decades. However, the degree to which thermal suitability is presently changing in different regions of the North Sea is still unclear, or if temperature alone (or together with fishery) is responsible for this displacement. In this study, the spatial distribution of different life stages of cod was modelled from 1967 to 2015. The model is fit point-to-point, spatially resolved at scales of 20 km. The results show that suitability has decreased south of 56°N (>12% in the Southern Bight) and increased north of it (with maximum of roughly 10% in southern Skagerrak). Future changes to suitability were estimated throughout the century using temperature projections from a regional climate model under the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change scenario RCP8.5. The results show that southern Skagerrak, the central and northern North Sea and the edge of the Norwegian trench will remain thermally suitable for North Sea cod throughout the century. This detailed geographical representation of thermally suitable key zones for North Sea cod under climate change is revealed for the first time through the improved resolution of this analysis.

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Impact of climate change on water requirements and growth of potato in different climatic zones of Montenegro

Journal of Water and Climate Change ◽

10.2166/wcc.2018.211 ◽

2018 ◽

Vol 9 (4) ◽

pp. 657-671 ◽

Cited By ~ 2

Author(s):

Mirko Knežević ◽

Ljubomir Zivotić ◽

Nataša Čereković ◽

Ana Topalović ◽

Nikola Koković ◽

...

Keyword(s):

Climate Change ◽

Climate Model ◽

Regional Climate ◽

Baseline Period ◽

Yield Reduction ◽

Adaptation Measures ◽

Impact Of Climate Change ◽

Temperature And Precipitation ◽

Viable Solution ◽

The Impact

Abstract The impact of climate change on potato cultivation in Montenegro was assessed. Three scenarios (A1B, A1Bs and A2) for 2001–2030, 2071–2100 and 2071–2100, respectively, were generated by a regional climate model and compared with the baseline period 1961–1990. The results indicated an increase of temperature during the summer season from 1.3 to 4.8 °C in the mountain region and from 1 to 3.4 °C in the coastal zone. The precipitation decreased between 5 and 50% depending on the scenario, region and season. The changes in temperature and precipitation influenced phenology, yield and water needs. The impact was more pronounced in the coastal areas than in the mountain regions. The growing season was shortened 13.6, 22.9 and 29.7 days for A1B, A1Bs and A2, respectively. The increase of irrigation requirement was 4.0, 19.5 and 7.3 mm for A1B, A1Bs and A2, respectively. For the baseline conditions, yield reduction under rainfed cultivation was lower than 30%. For A1B, A1Bs and A2 scenarios, yield reductions were 31.0 ± 8.2, 36.3 ± 11.6 and 34.1 ± 10.9%, respectively. Possible adaptation measures include shifting of production to the mountain (colder) areas and irrigation application. Rainfed cultivation remains a viable solution when the anticipation of sowing is adopted.

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Projected Changes of Precipitation IDF Curves for Short Duration under Climate Change in Central Vietnam

Hydrology ◽

10.3390/hydrology5030033 ◽

2018 ◽

Vol 5 (3) ◽

pp. 33 ◽

Cited By ~ 7

Author(s):

Nguyen Tien Thanh ◽

Luca Dutto Aldo Remo

Keyword(s):

Climate Change ◽

Climate Model ◽

Southern Oscillation ◽

Regional Climate ◽

Extreme Weather Events ◽

Climate Data ◽

Rcp Scenarios ◽

Central Vietnam ◽

Idf Curves ◽

Projected Changes

In future years, extreme weather events are expected to frequently increase due to climate change, especially in the combination of climate change and events of El Niño–Southern Oscillation. This pays special attention to the construction of intensity–duration–frequency (IDF) curves at a tempo-spatial scale of sub-daily and sub-grid under a context of climate change. The reason for this is that IDF curves represent essential means to study effects on the performance of drainage systems, damps, dikes and reservoirs. Therefore, the objective of this study is to present an approach to construct future IDF curves with high temporo-spatial resolutions under climate change in central Vietnam, using the case of VuGia-ThuBon. The climate data of historical and future from a regional climate model RegCM4 forced by three global models MPI-ESM-MR, IPSL-CM5A-LR and ICHEC-EC-EARTH are used to re-grid the resolution of 10 km × 10 km grid spacing from 25 km × 25 km on the base of bilinear interpolation. A bias correction method is then applied to the finest resolution of a hydrostatic climate model for an ensemble of simulations. Furthermore, the IDF curves for short durations of precipitation are constructed for the historical climate and future climates under two representative concentration pathway (RCP) scenarios, RCP4.5 and RCP8.5, based on terms of correlation factors. The major findings show that the projected precipitation changes are expected to significantly increase by about 10 to 30% under the scenarios of RCP4.5 and RCP8.5. The projected changes of a maximum of 1-, 2-, and 3-days precipitation are expected to increase by about 30–300 mm/day. More importantly, for all return periods (i.e., 10, 20, 50, 100, and 200 years), IDF curves completely constructed for short durations of precipitation at sub-daily show an increase in intensities for the RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 scenarios.

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THE SCIENCE UNDERLYING THE ISSUE OF CLIMATE CHANGE AND PROSPECTS FOR ADAPTATION

The APPEA Journal ◽

10.1071/aj00039 ◽

2001 ◽

Vol 41 (1) ◽

pp. 689

Author(s):

C.D. Mitchell ◽

G.I. Pearman

Keyword(s):

Climate Change ◽

Risk Management ◽

Greenhouse Gas ◽

Climate Model ◽

Global Climate ◽

Regional Climate ◽

Initial Response ◽

Lower Atmosphere ◽

Future Climate Change ◽

Atmospheric Concentration

The prospect of global-scale changes in climate resulting from changes in atmospheric greenhouse gas concentrations has produced a complex set of public and private- sector responses. This paper reviews several elements of this issue that are likely to be most important to industry.Scientific research continues to provide evidence to suggest that global climate will change significantly over the coming decades due to increases in the atmospheric concentration of greenhouse gases. Nonetheless, there exists a debate over the difference between observations of temperature retrieved from satellite and temperature measurements taken from the surface. Recent research undertaken to inform the debate is discussed, with the conclusion that there are real differences in trend between the surface and the lower atmosphere that can be explained in physical terms. Attention is turning to developing an understanding as to why climate model results show apparently consistent trends between the surface and the lower atmosphere, in contrast to these observations.While such uncertainties in the underlying science have been used to question whether action on the greenhouse issues is necessary, the initial response, as evidenced by international negotiations, has been to start mitigating greenhouse gas emissions. Adaptation to future climate change has received less attention than mitigation. A number of reasons for this are discussed, including the fact that regional scenarios of climate change are uncertain.The principles of risk management may be one way to manage the uncertainties associated with projections of regional climate change. Although the application of risk management to the potential impacts of climate change requires further investigation, elements of such a framework are identified, and include:Identifying the critical climate-related thresholds that are important to industry and its operations (for example, a 1-in-100 year return tropical cyclone).Using this understanding to analyse, and where possible quantify, industry’s pre-existing or baseline adaptive state through the use of sensitivity surfaces and quantified thresholds (for example, were facilities designed for a 1-in-100 event or a 1-in-500 year event?)Establishing probabilistic statements or scenarios of climate that are relevant to industry practice (for example, risk of a storm surge may be more important to operations than elevated wind strength; if so, what is the probability that an event will exceed the design threshold during the lifetime of the facility?).Bringing information on existing adaptive mechanisms together with climate scenarios to produce a quantitative risk assessment.Deciding on risk treatment (additional adaptive measures).

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