scholarly journals Measuring the Economic Impact of Climate Change on Crop Production in the Dry Zone of Myanmar: A Ricardian Approach

Climate ◽  
2020 ◽  
Vol 8 (1) ◽  
pp. 9
Author(s):  
Aung Tun Oo ◽  
Guido Van Huylenbroeck ◽  
Stijn Speelman

Myanmar is the country with the highest economic vulnerability (EV) to climate change in the Southeast Asian region. The dry zone of Myanmar occupies two-thirds of the agricultural lands and it has higher temperatures than elsewhere in the country. Climate change has severe impacts on agricultural production in this region. Moreover, changes in the precipitation patterns increase the likelihood of crop failures in the short-run and production declines in the long run. Therefore, an assessment of the economic impacts of climate change on crop production in the dry zone of Myanmar is very relevant. This paper examines the interactions between agriculture and climate and assesses the economic impact of climate change while using a Ricardian model. A cross-sectional survey covering three regions in the central dry zone: (Magwe, Mandalay, and Sagaing regions) was conducted, yielding a sample of 425 farmers. A non-linear relationship between climate indicators (temperature and precipitation) and revenue of land was found. The marginal effects were calculated by selecting economic and socio-demographic variables. The estimated marginal impacts suggest that the projected changes in temperature will affect the crop productivity of the region. The results also show that the temperature and rainfall components of global warming are both important. Predictions from three global circulation models all confirm that temperature is predicted to increase in all seasons. A significant marginal impact of increasing temperature on the net revenue of farm households was observed in the region. These findings call for policy makers and development planners to articulate the necessary climate change adaptation measures and mitigation options for reducing the negative impacts of climate change. Improved management and conservation of the available water resources could generate water for irrigation purposes and the dissemination of climate smart agricultural practices could lessen the negative impacts of climate change effects on agriculture in the dry zone of Myanmar.




2021 ◽  
Vol 15 (1) ◽  
Author(s):  
Joash Bwambale ◽  
Khaldoon A. Mourad

AbstractAgriculture is the backbone of Uganda’s economy, with about 24.9% contribution to the gross domestic product (GDP) as per the Uganda National Household Survey 2016/17. Agricultural productivity (yield per hectare) is still low due to the high dependence on rain-fed subsistence farming. Climate change is expected to further reduce the yield per hectare. Therefore, this study aims to evaluate the potential impact of climate change on maize yield in the Victoria Nile Sub-basin using the AquaCrop model. It further assesses the possible adaptation measures to climate change. The Hadley Centre Global Environmental Model version 2–Earth System (HadGEM2-ES) data downloaded from the Coordinated Regional Downscaling Experiment (CORDEX) was used to simulate maize yield in the near future (2021–2040), mid future (2041–2070) and late future (2071–2099). Results show that maize yield is likely to reduce by as high as 1–10%, 2–42% and 1–39% in the near, mid and late futures, respectively, depending on the agro-ecological zone. This decline in maize yield can have a significant impact on regional food security as well as socio-economic well-being since maize is a staple crop. The study also shows that improving soil fertility has no significant impact on maize yield under climate change. However, a combined application of supplementary irrigation and shifting the planting dates is a promising strategy to maintain food security and socio-economic development. This study presents important findings and adaptation strategies that policymakers and other stakeholders such as farmers can implement to abate the effects of climate change on crop production.



2017 ◽  
Vol 20 (3) ◽  
pp. 95-115
Author(s):  
Dorota Michalak

Climate change is one of the greatest contemporary threats to our planet’s environmental, social and economic condition. It is accompanied by massive changes in life support systems on Earth, where its far‑reaching effects will be felt in the upcoming decades. The development of a national adaptation policy (strategy and/or plan) serves as an instrument that provides the necessary framework for adaptation by coordinating the consideration of climate change across relevant sectors, geographical scales, and levels of decision making. The purpose of this paper is to compare the degree of influence of climate change on the economy of the Eastern European Union and compare national strategies for adaptation to climate change in selected countries of Western Europe and Poland. The study shows that countries bearing the brunt of the negative impacts of climate change are Cyprus, Malta, Bulgaria and Poland. These countries recorded the highest climate change index, the greatest losses in terms of estimated GDP, household welfare, land losses, and lower incomes in the agricultural and tourism sectors. With appropriate adaptation measures, countries such as Lithuania, Latvia and Estonia can take advantage of the future changes in weather conditions. A shift in the productivity of the agricultural sector and tourism from south to north can be noted.



2007 ◽  
Vol 97 (1) ◽  
pp. 354-385 ◽  
Author(s):  
Olivier Deschênes ◽  
Michael Greenstone

This paper measures the economic impact of climate change on US agricultural land by estimating the effect of random year-to-year variation in temperature and precipitation on agricultural profits. The preferred estimates indicate that climate change will increase annual profits by $1.3 billion in 2002 dollars (2002$) or 4 percent. This estimate is robust to numerous specification checks and relatively precise, so large negative or positive effects are unlikely. We also find the hedonic approach—which is the standard in the previous literature—to be unreliable because it produces estimates that are extremely sensitive to seemingly minor choices about control variables, sample, and weighting. (JEL L25, Q12, Q51, Q54)



2021 ◽  
Vol 53 (2) ◽  
Author(s):  
Lal Mervin Dharmasiri ◽  
Mangala Jayarathne

Transformational adaptation defines as 'changes the fundamental attributes of a system in response to climate and its effects.' Farmers deal with the natural environment and its components such as rainfall, temperature, humidity, and soil condition, which have a high range of variability and uncertainty for their cultivation. The present study focused on the impacts of climate change on the settler community who engage in agriculture as their mainstay and respond to the scenario. Quantitative and qualitative methods have been applied. Twenty samples from a village in the NCP have been selected. Primary outcomes of this study are (a) total awareness of perceptions on climate change; (b) the ambient temperature has been increasing and resulting in more heat stress; (c) frequent and severe occurrence of extreme rainfall anomalies and increasing trend of natural calamities. The area farmers have been adopting several strategies to overcome the negative impacts of climate change, such as transforming from intensification to more intensification that can be identified as Climate Smart Agriculture; crop diversification and adaptation of drought tolerance crops; transforming from agriculture to animal husbandry, and out-migration of unemployed or evicted youth from agriculture to non-agriculture. Institutional involvement is essential to strengthening the adaptative strategies of the people by providing an appropriate crop calendar and suitable crop combination and aware of the way of improving the use of the efficiency of available water for improving the living standard of the people.



2017 ◽  
Vol 63 (3) ◽  
pp. 18-24
Author(s):  
Nguyen Thuy Lan Chi ◽  
Phan Dao ◽  
Microslav Kyncl

Abstract In the recent decades, the Mekong River Delta has suffered quite significant impacts of climate change. Fluctuations of weather elements and sea level rises have caused adverse changes, namely: the appearance of unusual high and low levels of annual floods, more and more intense storms, more severe droughts, forest fires, river erosion, cyclones, and tidal surges appear increasingly more dangerous. Traditional adaptation measures to the environmental conditions may be unsuitable in the context of climate change in the Mekong River Delta. This paper summarizes some of the new adaptation measures that scientists and policy planners have proposed for the area to cope with the negative impacts of climate change.



2013 ◽  
Vol 21 (1) ◽  
pp. 31-34 ◽  
Author(s):  
CB Khadka ◽  
MK Balla ◽  
KR Tiwari

This paper focuses on climate change, its impact on cash crop production, perception of local people and their adaptation measures against the impacts of climate change in Lwang Ghalel Village Development Commitee (VDC) of Kaski district. Cash-crops such as tea, Amriso (broom grass) and cardamom were the main products in the study area. Primary data were collected through household survey with semi-structured questionnaires, interview with key informants, and formal and informal discussion. Thirty years meteorological data (rainfall and temperature) were collected from Narayani Basin Office, Pokhara to study the rainfall and temperature pattern. The rainfall pattern seemed to be increased at the rate of 2.74 mm per year while the mean annual maximum and minimum temperature also seemed to be increased by 0.064°C and 0.01°C per year, respectively. Tea was affected more due to climate change than other cash-crops. Amriso was the best adapted species against climate change due to its extended root system. DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.3126/banko.v21i1.9061 Banko Janakari, Vol. 21, No. 1 2011; 31-34



Agronomy ◽  
2020 ◽  
Vol 10 (10) ◽  
pp. 1465 ◽  
Author(s):  
Helder Fraga

Viticulture and winemaking have a strong socio-economic importance worldwide. Weather and climate represent key forcing factors for grapevine development, yields, and quality. Hence, climate change is expected to pose a strong impact on this crop, threatening the sustainability of the winemaking sector. Recent-past trends show noticeable warming in the grapevine growing season, as well as changes in the precipitation patterns in many renowned winemaking regions worldwide. Furthermore, climate projections point to enhanced stress conditions for grapevine growth under future scenarios. The strong evidence for a significant warming and drying in the upcoming decades urges adaptation measures to be taken by the winemaking sector. The aim of this editorial is to provide an updated overview of the adaptation measures that can be used by sector stakeholders to mitigate the negative impacts of climate change. A recent review article, which highlights several adaptation strategies to ensure the future sustainability of this important sector, is hereby analyzed.





Author(s):  
Jun’ya TAKAKURA ◽  
Shinichiro FUJIMORI ◽  
Kiyoshi TAKAHASHI ◽  
Qian ZHOU ◽  
Naota HANASAKI ◽  
...  


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