scholarly journals Multi-Site Photovoltaic Forecasting Exploiting Space-Time Convolutional Neural Network

Energies ◽  
2019 ◽  
Vol 12 (23) ◽  
pp. 4490 ◽  
Author(s):  
Jaeik Jeong ◽  
Hongseok Kim
Keyword(s):  
Neural Network ◽  
New York ◽  
Convolutional Neural Network ◽  
Smart Grids ◽  
Power Plants ◽  
Temporal Correlation ◽  
Space Time ◽  
Percentage Error ◽  
Virtual Power Plants ◽  
Pv Generation

The accurate forecasting of photovoltaic (PV) power generation is critical for smart grids and the renewable energy market. In this paper, we propose a novel short-term PV forecasting technique called the space-time convolutional neural network (STCNN) that exploits the location information of multiple PV sites and historical PV generation data. The proposed structure is simple but effective for multi-site PV forecasting. In doing this, we propose a greedy adjoining algorithm to preprocess PV data into a space-time matrix that captures spatio-temporal correlation, which is learned by a convolutional neural network. Extensive experiments with multi-site PV generation from three typical states in the US (California, New York, and Alabama) show that the proposed STCNN outperforms the conventional methods by up to 33% and achieves fairly accurate PV forecasting, e.g., 4.6–5.3% of the mean absolute percentage error for a 6 h forecasting horizon. We also investigate the effect of PV sites aggregation for virtual power plants where errors from some sites can be compensated by other sites. The proposed STCNN shows substantial error reduction by up to 40% when multiple PV sites are aggregated.

scholarly journals Application of Convolutional Neural Network for Spatiotemporal Bias Correction of Daily Satellite-Based Precipitation

2020 ◽  
Vol 12 (17) ◽  
pp. 2731
Author(s):  
Xuan-Hien Le ◽  
Giha Lee ◽  
Kwansue Jung ◽  
Hyun-uk An ◽  
Seungsoo Lee ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Neural Network ◽  
Standard Deviation ◽  
Convolutional Neural Network ◽  
Bias Correction ◽  
Temporal Correlation ◽  
Precipitation Data ◽  
Climate Data ◽  
Extreme Rainfall Events ◽  
Essential Components ◽  
Deviation Method

Spatiotemporal precipitation data is one of the essential components in modeling hydrological problems. Although the estimation of these data has achieved remarkable accuracy owning to the recent advances in remote-sensing technology, gaps remain between satellite-based precipitation and observed data due to the dependence of precipitation on the spatiotemporal distribution and the specific characteristics of the area. This paper presents an efficient approach based on a combination of the convolutional neural network and the autoencoder architecture, called the convolutional autoencoder (ConvAE) neural network, to correct the pixel-by-pixel bias for satellite-based products. The two daily gridded precipitation datasets with a spatial resolution of 0.25° employed are Asian Precipitation-Highly Resolved Observational Data Integration towards Evaluation (APHRODITE) as the observed data and Precipitation Estimation from Remotely Sensed Information using Artificial Neural Networks-Climate Data Record (PERSIANN-CDR) as the satellite-based data. Furthermore, the Mekong River basin was selected as a case study, because it is one of the largest river basins, spanning six countries, most of which are developing countries. In addition to the ConvAE model, another bias correction method based on the standard deviation method was also introduced. The performance of the bias correction methods was evaluated in terms of the probability distribution, temporal correlation, and spatial correlation of precipitation. Compared with the standard deviation method, the ConvAE model demonstrated superior and stable performance in most comparisons conducted. Additionally, the ConvAE model also exhibited impressive performance in capturing extreme rainfall events, distribution trends, and described spatial relationships between adjacent grid cells well. The findings of this study highlight the potential of the ConvAE model to resolve the precipitation bias correction problem. Thus, the ConvAE model could be applied to other satellite-based products, higher-resolution precipitation data, or other issues related to gridded data.

scholarly journals Ultra-Short-Term Forecasting of Photo-Voltaic Power via RBF Neural Network

Electronics ◽  
2020 ◽  
Vol 9 (10) ◽  
pp. 1717
Author(s):  
Wanxing Ma ◽  
Zhimin Chen ◽  
Qing Zhu
Keyword(s):  
Neural Network ◽  
Power Generation ◽  
Smart Grids ◽  
Percentage Error ◽  
Solar Pv ◽  
Short Term ◽  
Forecasting Method ◽  
Photo Voltaic ◽  
Short Term Forecasting ◽  
Pv Power Generation

With the fast expansion of renewable energy systems during recent years, the stability and quality of smart grids using solar energy have been challenged because of the intermittency and fluctuations. Hence, forecasting photo-voltaic (PV) power generation is essential in facilitating planning and managing electricity generation and distribution. In this paper, the ultra-short-term forecasting method for solar PV power generation is investigated. Subsequently, we proposed a radial basis function (RBF)-based neural network. Additionally, to improve the network generalization ability and reduce the training time, the numbers of hidden layer neurons are limited. The input of neural network is selected as the one with higher Spearman correlation among the predicted power features. The data are normalized and the expansion parameter of RBF neurons are adjusted continuously in order to reduce the calculation errors and improve the forecasting accuracy. Numerous simulations are carried out to evaluate the performance of the proposed forecasting method. The mean absolute percentage error (MAPE) of the testing set is within 10%, which show that the power values of the following 15 min. can be predicted accurately. The simulation results verify that our method shows better performance than other existing works.

scholarly journals Forecasting Photovoltaic Power Generation Using Satellite Images

Energies ◽  
2020 ◽  
Vol 13 (24) ◽  
pp. 6603
Author(s):  
Dukhwan Yu ◽  
Seowoo Lee ◽  
Sangwon Lee ◽  
Wonik Choi ◽  
Ling Liu
Keyword(s):  
Power Generation ◽  
Power Systems ◽  
Power Plants ◽  
Satellite Images ◽  
Cloud Amount ◽  
Weather Forecast ◽  
Percentage Error ◽  
Virtual Power Plants ◽  
Forecast Data ◽  
Pv Power Generation

As the relative importance of renewable energy in electric power systems increases, the prediction of photovoltaic (PV) power generation has become a crucial technology, for improving stability in the operation of next-generation power systems, such as microgrid and virtual power plants (VPP). In order to improve the accuracy of PV power generation forecasting, a fair amount of research has been applied to weather forecast data (to a learning process). Despite these efforts, the problems of forecasting PV power generation remains challenging since existing methods show limited accuracy due to inappropriate cloud amount forecast data, which are strongly correlated with PV power generation. To address this problem, we propose a PV power forecasting model, including a cloud amount forecasting network trained with satellite images. In addition, our proposed model adopts convolutional self-attention to effectively capture historical features, and thus acquire helpful information from weather forecasts. To show the efficacy of the proposed cloud amount forecast network, we conduct extensive experiments on PV power generation forecasting with and without the cloud amount forecast network. The experimental results show that the Mean Absolute Percentage Error (MAPE) of our proposed prediction model, combined with the cloud amount forecast network, are reduced by 22.5% compared to the model without the cloud amount forecast network.

Week-ahead Forecasting of Household Energy Consumption Using CNN and Multivariate Data

2021 ◽  
Vol 20 ◽  
pp. 182-188
Author(s):  
Vanita Agrawal ◽  
Pradyut K. Goswami ◽  
Kandarpa K. Sarma
Keyword(s):  
Neural Network ◽  
Energy Consumption ◽  
Power System ◽  
Convolutional Neural Network ◽  
Network Model ◽  
Neural Network Model ◽  
Smart Grids ◽  
Smart Meters ◽  
Household Energy ◽  
Household Energy Consumption

Short-Term Load Forecasting for buildings has gained a lot of importance in recent times due to the ongoing penetration of renewable energy and the upgradation of power system networks to Smart Grids embedded with smart meters. Power System expansion is not able to keep pace with the energy consumption demands. In this scenario, accurate household energy forecasting is one of the key solutions to managing the demand side energy. Even a small percentage of improvement in forecasting error, translates to a lot of saving for both producers and consumers. In this paper, it was found out that Aggregated 1-Dimensional Convolutional Neural Networks can be effectively modeled to predict the household consumption with greater accuracy than a basic 1-Dimensional Convolutional Neural Network model or a classical Auto Regressive Integrated Moving Average model. The proposed Aggregated Convolutional Neural Network model was tested on a 4 year household energy consumption dataset and gave very promising Root Mean Square Error reduction

Estimation of structural response using convolutional neural network: application to the Suramadu bridge

2021 ◽  
Vol ahead-of-print (ahead-of-print) ◽  
Author(s):  
Arya Panji Pamuncak ◽  
Mohammad Reza Salami ◽  
Augusta Adha ◽  
Bambang Budiono ◽  
Irwanda Laory
Keyword(s):  
Neural Network ◽  
Machine Learning ◽  
Convolutional Neural Network ◽  
Structural Response ◽  
Force Sensor ◽  
Absolute Error ◽  
Percentage Error ◽  
Learning Approaches ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Cable Force

PurposeStructural health monitoring (SHM) has gained significant attention due to its capability in providing support for efficient and optimal bridge maintenance activities. However, despite the promising potential, the effectiveness of SHM system might be hindered by unprecedented factors that impact the continuity of data collection. This research presents a framework utilising convolutional neural network (CNN) for estimating structural response using environmental variations.Design/methodology/approachThe CNN framework is validated using monitoring data from the Suramadu bridge monitoring system. Pre-processing is performed to transform the data into data frames, each containing a sequence of data. The data frames are divided into training, validation and testing sets. Both the training and validation sets are employed to train the CNN models while the testing set is utilised for evaluation by calculating error metrics such as mean absolute error (MAE), mean absolute percentage error (MAPE) and root mean square error (RMSE). Comparison with other machine learning approaches is performed to investigate the effectiveness of the CNN framework.FindingsThe CNN models are able to learn the trend of cable force sensor measurements with the ranges of MAE between 10.23 kN and 19.82 kN, MAPE between 0.434% and 0.536% and RMSE between 13.38 kN and 25.32 kN. In addition, the investigation discovers that the CNN-based model manages to outperform other machine learning models.Originality/valueThis work investigates, for the first time, how cable stress can be estimated using temperature variations. The study presents the first application of 1-D CNN regressor on data collected from a full-scale bridge. This work also evaluates the comparison between CNN regressor and other techniques, such as artificial neutral network (ANN) and linear regression, in estimating bridge cable stress, which has not been performed previously.

scholarly journals Electricity Price and Load Forecasting using Enhanced Convolutional Neural Network and Enhanced Support Vector Regression in Smart Grids

Electronics ◽  
2019 ◽  
Vol 8 (2) ◽  
pp. 122 ◽  
Author(s):  
Maheen Zahid ◽  
Fahad Ahmed ◽  
Nadeem Javaid ◽  
Raza Abbasi ◽  
Hafiza Zainab Kazmi ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Neural Network ◽  
Convolutional Neural Network ◽  
Support Vector Regression ◽  
Smart Grids ◽  
Performance Metrics ◽  
Load Forecasting ◽  
Electricity Price ◽  
Support Vector ◽  
Price Forecasting ◽  
Electricity Load

Short-Term Electricity Load Forecasting (STELF) through Data Analytics (DA) is an emerging and active research area. Forecasting about electricity load and price provides future trends and patterns of consumption. There is a loss in generation and use of electricity. So, multiple strategies are used to solve the aforementioned problems. Day-ahead electricity price and load forecasting are beneficial for both suppliers and consumers. In this paper, Deep Learning (DL) and data mining techniques are used for electricity load and price forecasting. XG-Boost (XGB), Decision Tree (DT), Recursive Feature Elimination (RFE) and Random Forest (RF) are used for feature selection and feature extraction. Enhanced Convolutional Neural Network (ECNN) and Enhanced Support Vector Regression (ESVR) are used as classifiers. Grid Search (GS) is used for tuning of the parameters of classifiers to increase their performance. The risk of over-fitting is mitigated by adding multiple layers in ECNN. Finally, the proposed models are compared with different benchmark schemes for stability analysis. The performance metrics MSE, RMSE, MAE, and MAPE are used to evaluate the performance of the proposed models. The experimental results show that the proposed models outperformed other benchmark schemes. ECNN performed well with threshold 0.08 for load forecasting. While ESVR performed better with threshold value 0.15 for price forecasting. ECNN achieved almost 2% better accuracy than CNN. Furthermore, ESVR achieved almost 1% better accuracy than the existing scheme (SVR).

scholarly journals Virtual Power Plant Management in Smart Grids with XMPP Based IEC 61850 Communication

Energies ◽  
2019 ◽  
Vol 12 (12) ◽  
pp. 2398 ◽  
Author(s):  
Furquan Nadeem ◽  
Mohd Asim Aftab ◽  
S.M. Suhail Hussain ◽  
Ikbal Ali ◽  
Prashant Kumar Tiwari ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Smart Grid ◽  
Smart Grids ◽  
Power Plants ◽  
Cyber Attacks ◽  
Plant Management ◽  
Stable Operation ◽  
Communication Model ◽  
Virtual Power ◽  
Iec 61850 ◽  
Virtual Power Plants

Communication plays a key role in the effective management of virtual power plants (VPPs). For effective and stable operation of VPPs, a reliable, secure, and standardized communication infrastructure is required. In the literature, efforts were made to develop this based on industry standards, such as the IEC 60870-5-104, OpenADR 2.0b and IEC 61850. Due to its global acceptance and strong object-oriented information models, IEC 61850 standard-based communication is preferred for smart grid operations, including VPPs. However, communication models based on IEC 61850 present cybersecurity and scalability challenges. To address this issue, this paper presents an eXtensible Message Presence Protocol (XMPP)-based IEC 61850 communication for VPPs. Firstly, a full mapping of IEC 61850 messages for VPP energy management is carried out. Secondly, XMPP-based single- and multiple-domain communications are demonstrated. Finally, a federation concept has been added to facilitate communication in multi-domain communication networks. These models show that a standard communication model can be implemented with IEC 61850 and XMPP, not only for VPPs but other wide-area communication implementations in smart grids. This not only facilitates plug-and-play (PnP) with easy component additions but secures smart grid communication against cyber-attacks.

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