Energy Security in Danger? A Comparative Analysis of Oil and Copper Supply

This study aims to examine energy security in terms of crude oil and copper supply. While oil remains the leading energy commodity globally, copper is crucial for many new technologies, foremost for RES. Therefore, both oil and copper are extremely important for current and future energy security. This article contains a bivariate methodological approach to a comparative analysis of oil and copper supply: determining supply security with an Index of security of supply, and examines price stability with generalized autoregressive conditional heteroscedasticity (GARCH) models. This research provides evidence that there are many differences but also significant similarities between these two completely different commodities in terms of both supply security and price stability. Facing the future for RES, significant demand may cause a threat to energy security on a previously unknown scale. Therefore this instability, both supply- and price-related, appears to be the main threat to future energy security.

Investing in Renewable Energy and Energy Efficiency in Palestinian Territories: Barriers and Opportunities

The main objective of this paper is to identify the renewable energy (RE) and energy efficiency (EE) policy and regulatory risks and barriers in the Palestinian Territories (PT). An accurate insight into the market structure and normative frameworks for RE and EE investments in the PT is performed. For this purpose, a survey has been conducted through two questionnaires and interviews addressed to public decision-makers and local and foreign sectoral companies to study the market confidence in the field of renewable energy sources (RES) and EE. The questionnaire was designed to investigate the attractiveness of RE and EE in the country by directly involving the various market players and to identify what could encourage or hinder investment. RE and EE are, in fact, a valid response to the needs of the PT to guarantee independence and security of supply, ensure access to energy throughout the territory, and reduce emissions. The climate-related issues are listed in the Palestinian political agenda. National subsidies and grants are offered for investment in RES and EE but are still the main barriers. Developments towards further utilization of RES are in progress continually. Marketing campaigns are stimulating the production of RE and EE promotion. RES and EE laws and regulations are continually issued.

Die Energiewende im Kontext von Klima- und Demokratiekrise: Die Grenzen der Deliberation und radikaldemokratische Alternativen

Die Umsetzung der Energiewende begleiten viele Konflikte um das Gemeinwohl, in denen sich zunehmend Phänomene einer Demokratiekrise zeigen. Das deliberative Demokratiemodell stößt hier an Grenzen. Der Schlüssel für eine konstruktive Bearbeitung von Klima- und Demokratiekrise liegt darin, die Konfrontation zwischen konkurrierenden Energiewende-Visionen zu forcieren. Es gilt, den pluralistischen Kern moderner Demokratien und die Legitimität von Konflikten anzuerkennen (conflictual consensus) und auf dieser Basis Konflikte um Gemeinwohlziele auszutragen.In government policy, security of supply, affordability and the protection of the climate and the environment are postulated as equal goals of the German energy transition (Energiewende). There is no explicit prioritization of these supposed goals. This leads to problems both in terms of the success of the Energiewende itself, and in terms of its effects on the political culture. Conflicts over the implementation of the Energiewende increasingly reveal a crisis of democracy, which cannot be adequately responded to in negotiations over concrete energy projects. A one-sided focus on the deliberative model of democracy further exacerbates the symptoms of a democratic crisis. From a radical democratic perspective, the key to constructively addressing both climatic and democratic challenges is to encourage a confrontation between competing Energiewende visions in a way that is compatible with a pluralistic understanding of democracy.

Economic and Carbon Costs of Electricity Balancing Services: The Need for Secure Flexible Low-Carbon Generation

The electricity sector aims to achieve a balanced progress in all three dimensions of the energy trilemma: affordability, decarbonisation and security of supply. Separate strategies for decarbonisation and security of supply have been pursued; each with close attention to minimising costs, thus consistent with the affordability aspect of the trilemma. However, while it is evident that the pathway for decarbonisation increases pressure on security of supply, the pressures that cost-minimising security of supply measures are putting on decarbonisation goes unaddressed. The United Kingdom (UK) is a global leader in the transition towards a decarbonised economy and aims to achieve net-zero emissions by 2050. As a major part of the UK, Great Britain (GB) has achieved greater than 50% of low-carbon electricity generation and the grid’s carbon intensity has dropped by 36% over the period 2015–2019. However, balancing services that provide security of supply uses only 8% of low-carbon generation. Their carbon intensity is double the grid’s average and this gap is widening. This is an effect of a systemic reliance on carbon-intensive fuels. Financial support for capital investment for flexible low-carbon technologies is much needed. The GB context suggests that an integrated strategy covering all three dimensions of the trilemma might achieve an improved balance between them and unlock an affordable, net-zero emissions and secure power system.

A hybrid approach for high precision prediction of gas flows

About 23% of the German energy demand is supplied by natural gas. Additionally, for about the same amount Germany serves as a transit country. Thereby, the German network represents a central hub in the European natural gas transport network. The transport infrastructure is operated by transmissions system operators (TSOs). The number one priority of the TSOs is to ensure the security of supply. However, the TSOs have only very limited knowledge about the intentions and planned actions of the shippers (traders). Open Grid Europe (OGE), one of Germany’s largest TSO, operates a high-pressure transport network of about 12,000 km length. With the introduction of peak-load gas power stations, it is of great importance to predict in- and out-flow of the network to ensure the necessary flexibility and security of supply for the German Energy Transition (“Energiewende”). In this paper, we introduce a novel hybrid forecast method applied to gas flows at the boundary nodes of a transport network. This method employs an optimized feature selection and minimization. We use a combination of a FAR, LSTM and mathematical programming to achieve robust high-quality forecasts on real-world data for different types of network nodes.

From hierarchies to markets and partially back again in electricity: responding to decarbonization and security of supply goals

Electric power sectors around the world have changed dramatically in the last 25 years as a result of sector liberalization policies. Many electricity sectors are now pursuing deep decarbonization goals which will entail replacing dispatchable fossil generation primarily with intermittent renewable generation (wind and solar) over the next 20–30 years. This transition creates new challenges for both short-term wholesale market design and investment incentives consistent with achieving both decarbonization commitments and security of supply criteria. Thinking broadly about the options for institutional change from a Williamsonian perspective – thinking like Williamson – provides a useful framework for examining institutional adaptation. Hybrid markets that combine ‘competition for the market’ that relies on competitive procurement for long-term purchased power agreements with wind, solar, and storage developers, ideally in a technology neutral fashion, and ‘competition in the market’ that relies on short-term markets designed to produce efficient and reliable operations of intermittent generation and storage, is identified as a promising direction for institutional adaptation. Many auction, contract, and market integration issues remain to be resolved.