scholarly journals Impacts of Reverse Global Value Chain (GVC) Factors on Global Trade and Energy Market

Energies ◽  
2021 ◽  
Vol 14 (12) ◽  
pp. 3417
Author(s):  
Byeongho Lim ◽  
Jeongho Yoo ◽  
Kyoungseo Hong ◽  
Inkyo Cheong
Keyword(s):  
United States ◽  
Value Chain ◽  
Global Economy ◽  
The United States ◽  
Energy Market ◽  
Worst Case ◽  
Global Energy ◽  
Computational General Equilibrium ◽  
The Us ◽  
Gas Market

Since the outbreak of COVID-19 and the American decoupling policy, the global value chains (GVCs) have been switched to regional GVCs, and, in the worst case, are subject to a potential alteration of reversing the GVCs, ultimately entailing a severe impact on international trade and the global energy market. This paper applies a quantitative approach using a computational general equilibrium (CGE) model to estimate the effects of the reverse GVC factors on the global economy, trade, and energy market. These reverse GVC factors will decrease the global GDP, and such effect will bring a greater influence on both China as well as the United States, which is pursuing decoupling. The increased trade costs due to these factors will reduce the GVC indices, mostly in ASEAN by 0.2~1.15%, followed by Korea, Japan and China. Surprisingly, the GVC index in the United States is expected to be strengthened due to the enhanced GVC with its allies such as Canada and Mexico. In China, the use of oil, gas and petroleum is expected to decrease by around 10%, and similar effects are expected in Korea and the EU. Among the world’s major energy producers, it is estimated that the US will reduce energy exports by 16–62% depending on the energy source, and the Middle East and Russia will significantly reduce their gas exports. The global energy market is shrinking, but in particular, the international gas market is expected to decrease by 27.3~38.6%.

Economic Impacts of the US–China Trade War on the Asian Economy: An Applied Analysis of IDE-GSM

2021 ◽  
pp. 263168462110322
Author(s):  
Satoru Kumagai ◽  
Toshitaka Gokan ◽  
Kenmei Tsubota ◽  
Ikumo Isono ◽  
Kazunobu Hayakawa
Keyword(s):  
United States ◽  
Global Economy ◽  
Negative Impact ◽  
Economic Impacts ◽  
The United States ◽  
China Trade ◽  
Computational General Equilibrium ◽  
The Us ◽  
Trade War ◽  
Asian Economy

In this article, we attempt to estimate the economic impacts of the US–China trade war that began in 2018. We used IDE-GSM, a computational general equilibrium simulation model, to estimate the economic impacts of a ‘full-confrontation’ scenario wherein both countries impose 25% additional tariffs on all goods imported from each other for 3 years 2019 onwards. In our calculation, the economic impact for the United States is −0.4% and −0.5% for China. Some Asian countries benefit from the trade war. As far as it remains bilateral, the trade war is only an issue for the concerned parties. We also ran the US–world trade war scenario, wherein the United States and all other countries impose a 25% additional tariff on all goods. The negative impact on the global economy is –0.8%, much more significant than the 0.1% impact from the US–China trade war. Thus, it is clear that the world cannot afford to engage in a multilateral trade war. JEL Codes: C68, F13

United States and Its Challenge to Multilateralism in the Global Economy

2018 ◽  
Vol 74 (4) ◽  
pp. 402-419
Author(s):  
Krishnakumar S.
Keyword(s):  
United States ◽  
Global Economy ◽  
World Economy ◽  
Foreign Exchange Market ◽  
Bilateral Trade ◽  
Developing Economies ◽  
The United States ◽  
The Us ◽  
The World ◽  
Merchandise Trade

With Donald Trump as President of United States, multilateralism in the world economy is facing an unprecedented challenge. The international economic institutions that have evolved since the fifties are increasingly under the risk of being undermined. With the growing assertion of the emerging and developing economies in the international fora, United States is increasingly sceptical of its ability to maneuvre such institutions to suit its own purpose. This is particularly true with respect to WTO, based on “one country one vote” system. The tariff rate hikes initiated by the leader country in the recent past pose a serious challenge to the multilateral trading system. The paper tries to undertake a critical overview of the US pre-occupation of targeting economies on the basis of the bilateral merchandise trade surpluses of countries, through the trade legislations like Omnibus Act and Trade Facilitation Act. These legislations not only ignore the growing share of the United States in the growing invisibles trade in the world economy, but also read too much into the bilateral trade surpluses of economies with United States and the intervention done by them in the foreign exchange market.

scholarly journals Obama and Transformation Strategy from the Middle East to the Asia – Pacific Region

2017 ◽  
Vol 13 (6) ◽  
pp. 46
Author(s):  
Mohamed Kamal ◽  
Khalid Hashim Mohammed
Keyword(s):  
United States ◽  
Middle East ◽  
Global Economy ◽  
The United States ◽  
Asia Pacific ◽  
Asia Pacific Region ◽  
East Region ◽  
The Us ◽  
New Strategy ◽  
Middle East Region

The Middle East region is no longer enjoys the relative importance for the United States. This was due to the massive discoveries of Shale oil in the United States. Many analysts believe that such discovery led to the decline of the US interest in the Middle East and shifting the orientation towards Asia because of the growing importance of the Southeast Asia in the global economy. The United States, in return, has re-defined the role and the size of involvement in the Middle East by adopting a new strategy based on reducing economic and military consequences resulting from the direct investment in the region, which is rejected by US public opinion.

Prospects for the global economy in 2018

2017 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
United States ◽  
Global Economy ◽  
Low Cost ◽  
Commodity Prices ◽  
Balance Of Power ◽  
The United States ◽  
Industrial Growth ◽  
Content Type ◽  
The Us ◽  
Open Markets

Subject PROSPECTS 2018: Global economy Significance Global GDP growth is likely to edge higher in 2018 as trade, investment and employment expand. However, monetary policy is gradually tightening, fiscal expansion is limited and there is little chance of a repeat of the surprise boost from trade seen in 2017 or a recovery in productivity. Inflation may remain obdurately low in the United States, Japan and the euro-area but not sufficiently to deter the US Federal Reserve (Fed) and the ECB from gently reeling in their bond-buying programmes. Modestly higher commodity prices should support economic recovery in resource producers. Impacts The timing of elections in the United States, Canada and Mexico may prolong the NAFTA trade talks into 2019 or beyond. China will battle any US attempts to constrain its innovation and access to technology, which it sees as key to its rebalancing. Technological progress and more open markets exacerbate the unpredictability of jobs and wages, but policy will increasingly address this. Automation means the job intensive low-cost industrial growth engine is now less effective; developing countries must consider new models. A better balance of power between multinationals, international organisations and governments will be key to global tax cooperation.

scholarly journals The United States-China Trade War: Empirical Assessment

2020 ◽  
pp. 35-45
Author(s):  
Victor Adjarho Ovuakporaye
Keyword(s):  
United States ◽  
Global Economy ◽  
The United States ◽  
International Economy ◽  
Trade Relation ◽  
Empirical Assessment ◽  
China Trade ◽  
The Us ◽  
Trade War ◽  
The Impact

This paper aims to explore the US-China trade war by looking at various issues surrounding the US-China trade relation. The US-China trade war had been imminent since January 2018, meritoriously commenced on 6 July 2018, which is still ongoing. The US imposed sanctions on various Chinese goods, which was counter by the Chinese side also. Both side have felt the effect of the trade war though China felt the impact more than United States. Though, both nations have recently held positive trade talks which leads to the first phase of negotiation the trade war is still ongoing. If the partnership between the United states and China collapses, this will also end up harming the global economy severely since they are crucial cornerstones of the international economy.

Prospects for the global economy to end-2019

2019 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
United States ◽  
Fiscal Policy ◽  
World Trade ◽  
Global Economy ◽  
World Economy ◽  
The United States ◽  
Content Type ◽  
The Us ◽  
The World

Subject Prospects for the global economy to end-2019. Significance The world economy is likely to grow by around 3% this year. This is the lower end of the 3.0-3.5% range expected six months ago. World trade is weakening amid the US-China conflict and productivity is not picking up. China is expanding fiscal policy and others may follow, perhaps Germany and the United States. Monetary tightening is off the table and some countries may loosen policy. However, this will mainly shore up growth rather than raising it.

Analysis of freight train collision risk in the United States

2018 ◽  
Vol 233 (8) ◽  
pp. 817-830 ◽  
Author(s):  
Tejashree Turla ◽  
Xiang Liu ◽  
Zhipeng Zhang
Keyword(s):  
United States ◽  
Value At Risk ◽  
The United States ◽  
Mitigation Strategies ◽  
Conditional Value At Risk ◽  
Collision Risk ◽  
Worst Case ◽  
Freight Train ◽  
The Us ◽  
Traffic Exposure

Rail transportation is pivotal for the national economy. Despite being rare, a train accident can potentially result in severe consequences, such as infrastructure damage costs, casualties, and environmental impacts. An understanding of accident frequency, severity, and risk is important for rail safety management. In the United States, extensive prior research has focused on risk analyses of train derailments and highway–rail grade crossing accidents. Relatively less work has been conducted regarding train collision risk. The US Federal Railroad Administration identifies various accident causes, among which the authors of this study have analyzed the major collision causes. For each major accident cause, the authors have analyzed its resultant collision frequency, severity (in terms of damage cost or casualties), and correspondingly the risk, which is the combination of the frequency and severity. The analysis was based on train collision data in the United States from 2001 to 2015. This analysis focuses on freight trains in the United States, due to their immense traffic exposure. On the temporal scale, collision rate (the number of collisions normalized by traffic exposure) has an approximately 5% annual reduction. In terms of collision cause, failures to obey signals, overspeeds, and violations of mainline operating rules accounted for more collisions than other causes. Two alternative risk measures, namely the expected consequence and conditional value at risk, were used to evaluate the freight train collision risk on main tracks, accounting for both the average and worst-case scenarios. This collision risk analysis methodology may provide the US Department of Transportation and railroad industry with information and decision support for identifying, evaluating, and implementing cost-effective risk mitigation strategies.

What the US Should Learn from China for a More Balanced and Peaceful World

2012 ◽  
Vol 5 (3) ◽  
pp. 50-63 ◽  
Author(s):  
Fabio Massimo Parenti
Keyword(s):  
United States ◽  
Global Economy ◽  
International Monetary System ◽  
The United States ◽  
Economic Governance ◽  
Social Scientists ◽  
Systematic Analysis ◽  
Monetary System ◽  
The Us ◽  
The U.S

The growing importance of China in the global economy affects the reconfiguration of the international geography of power. In this scenario, the geopolitical order will be significantly redefined by the evolution of relations between China and the U.S. Based on the outcome of previous studies, and on the extensive efforts made by some social scientists, this paper provides a systematic analysis of the complexity and strategic implications of China–US relations. To make sense of these multivalent relations, after an initial introduction the paper is organized in three sections. The first section explores the structurally asymmetrical nature of relations between China and the US, focusing on economic policy decisions made by national elites. The second section focuses on the deepening U.S. debt, also underscoring the latest transformation trends experienced by an international monetary system that is still dollar–centred, and which several parties deem to be unsustainable. Lastly, the third section tries to provide evidence that growing instability in the global geopolitical order is intimately related to the economic and financial unbalances between China and the U.S. Hence, promoting more effective cooperation between China and the United States seems to be a priority. As substantiated in this paper, cooperation should, however, make the most of the Chinese developmental path, compared to that adopted by the United States – in terms of economic governance and geopolitical developmental path.

scholarly journals The Essence of Optimism of The Economists and Investors with Regard to the Economy of Russia

2019 ◽  
Vol 2 (4) ◽  
Author(s):  
Tenkovskaya Lyudmila Igorevna
Keyword(s):  
United States ◽  
Economic Policy ◽  
The United States ◽  
Energy Market ◽  
Medium Term ◽  
Russian Economy ◽  
World Energy ◽  
The Us ◽  
Us Dollar ◽  
Reserve System

The gross domestic product of Russia, expressed in US dollars, indicates problems in the Russian economy associated with the decline in oil prices on the world energy market and the consequences of the sanctions of the United States and the European Union against Russia. The crisis situation of the Russian economy has a negative impact on the income of the population of country, represented mainly by wages. However, an economist or investor may be optimistic about Russian economic development in the medium term. This optimism is related to the economic policy of the United States. The expansion of the United States economy within the global space, based on economic growth, requires maintaining inflation within the target level and weakening the US dollar. These tasks are solved with the help of soft monetary policy of the US Federal Reserve System. The reduction of interest rates by the US Federal Reserve System against the background of inflation of the target level and the devaluation of the US dollar will contribute to economic growth in the United States, because it will lead to the depreciation of public debt, lower consumption of imports, increase in exports and trade balance, growth of production, income, consumption. The economic policy of the United States, which contributes to the devaluation of the US dollar, will also reduce the US dollar against the ruble. The optimistic view of investors-economists on the Russian economy is due to a significant strengthening of the ruble against the US dollar. Consequently, in the medium term, the gross domestic product and wages of citizens of Russia, expressed in US dollars, will significantly increase, and the purchasing power of the national currency of the country will also increase. This growth may continue until the next election of a new President of the United States in november 2020. After the election of the new President of the United States, there is a high probability of sanctions against Russia and of decline in oil prices in the world energy market in accordance with the future economic policy of the United States – two main reasons for the sharp strengthening of the US dollar against the ruble, which will cause a deeper economic crisis in Russia in the medium and long term.

«Shale revolution» in the USA and its impact on the international trade flows of oil and gas

2021 ◽  
pp. 3-32
Author(s):  
Zoya Podoba ◽  
Anastasiya Lavrova
Keyword(s):  
United States ◽  
Oil And Gas ◽  
Panel Data Analysis ◽  
The United States ◽  
Energy Markets ◽  
Price Dynamics ◽  
Global Energy ◽  
Horizontal Drilling ◽  
The Us ◽  
The Usa

The paper determines the vector of influence of the “shale revolution” on international energy markets based on the analysis of volume and price dynamics of world oil and gas markets, as well as energy trade in the United States. The study contains a multilateral assessment of trends emerging from the development of shale technologies. Using regression models, the authors trace a statistically significant impact of the “shale revolution” on the price dynamics of the global energy market. Panel data analysis for the period from 2010 to 2019 shows a direct dependence between the decline in energy imports in the United States and global oil and gas prices, and the inverse dependence between the increase in exports from the United States and prices of oil (Brent) and European gas (NBP). Due to active use and continuous improvement of horizontal drilling and hydraulic fracturing techniques in the second decade of the twenty-first century the USA is decreasing its energy import dependency and transforming into a net exporter of hydrocarbons. It results in the supply disbalance on global energy markets. The ongoing changes in the US oil and gas production are leading to the transformation of geopolitical situation on world energy markets. If a decade ago, the US strategy was aimed at guaranteeing stable energy supplies, now it is the capture of markets and crowding out competitors by all possible means.

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