scholarly journals Forecasting the Volatility of Crude Oil: The Role of Uncertainty and Spillovers

Energies ◽  
2021 ◽  
Vol 14 (14) ◽  
pp. 4173
Author(s):  
Rangan Gupta ◽  
Christian Pierdzioch
Keyword(s):  
Crude Oil ◽  
Predictive Value ◽  
Realized Variance ◽  
International Spillovers ◽  
Forecasting Models ◽  
West Texas ◽  
Out Of Sample ◽  
One Year ◽  
Lasso Estimator

We use a dataset for the group of G7 countries and China to study the out-of-sample predictive value of uncertainty and its international spillovers for the realized variance of crude oil (West Texas Intermediate and Brent) over the sample period from 1996Q1 to 2020Q4. Using the Lasso estimator, we found evidence that uncertainty and international spillovers had predictive value for the realized variance at intermediate (two quarters) and long (one year) forecasting horizons in several of the forecasting models that we studied. This result holds also for upside (good) and downside (bad) variance, and irrespective of whether we used a recursive or a rolling estimation window. Our results have important implications for investors and policymakers.

scholarly journals Uncertainty, Spillovers, and Forecasts of the Realized Variance of Gold Returns

2021 ◽  
Vol 26 (3) ◽  
pp. 49
Author(s):  
Rangan Gupta ◽  
Christian Pierdzioch
Keyword(s):  
Forecast Accuracy ◽  
Systematic Effect ◽  
Derivative Securities ◽  
Realized Variance ◽  
International Spillovers ◽  
Out Of Sample ◽  
Related Derivative ◽  
Using Data ◽  
Lasso Estimator

Using data for the group of G7 countries and China for the sample period 1996Q1 to 2020Q4, we study the role of uncertainty and spillovers for the out-of-sample forecasting of the realized variance of gold returns and its upside (good) and downside (bad) counterparts. We go beyond earlier research in that we do not focus exclusively on U.S.-based measures of uncertainty, and in that we account for international spillovers of uncertainty. Our results, based on the Lasso estimator, show that, across the various model configurations that we study, uncertainty has a more systematic effect on out-of-sample forecast accuracy than spillovers. Our results have important implications for investors in terms of, for example, pricing of related derivative securities and the development of portfolio-allocation strategies.

scholarly journals A Note on Forecasting the Historical Realized Variance of Oil-Price Movements: The Role of Gold-to-Silver and Gold-to-Platinum Price Ratios

Energies ◽  
2021 ◽  
Vol 14 (20) ◽  
pp. 6775
Author(s):  
Rangan Gupta ◽  
Christian Pierdzioch ◽  
Wing-Keung Wong
Keyword(s):  
Real Time ◽  
Predictive Value ◽  
Oil Price ◽  
Realized Variance ◽  
Monthly Data ◽  
Significant Evidence ◽  
Out Of Sample ◽  
Price Movements

We examine the predictive value of gold-to-silver and gold-to-platinum price ratios, as proxies for global risks affecting the realized variance (RV) of oil-price movements, using monthly data over the longest available periods of 1915:01–2021:03 and 1968:01–2021:03, respectively. Using the two ratios, we find statistically significant evidence of in-sample predictability for increases in RV for both ratios. This finding also translates into statistically significant out-of-sample forecasting gains derived from these two ratios for RV. Given the importance of real-time forecasts of the volatility of oil-price movements, our results have important implications for investors and policymakers.

scholarly journals El Niño, La Niña, and the Forecastability of the Realized Variance of Heating Oil Price Movements

2021 ◽  
Vol 13 (14) ◽  
pp. 7987
Author(s):  
Mehmet Balcilar ◽  
Elie Bouri ◽  
Rangan Gupta ◽  
Christian Pierdzioch
Keyword(s):  
El Niño ◽  
Predictive Value ◽  
El Nino ◽  
Southern Oscillation ◽  
La Niña ◽  
Realized Variance ◽  
La Nina ◽  
Out Of Sample ◽  
Heating Oil ◽  
Price Movements

We use the heterogenous autoregressive (HAR) model to compute out-of-sample forecasts of the monthly realized variance (RV) of movements of the spot and futures price of heating oil. We extend the HAR–RV model to include the role of El Niño and La Niña episodes, as captured by the Equatorial Southern Oscillation Index (EQSOI). Using data from June 1986 to April 2021, we show evidence for several model configurations that both El Niño and La Niña phases contain information useful for forecasting subsequent to the realized variance of price movements beyond the predictive value already captured by the HAR–RV model. The predictive value of La Niña phases, however, seems to be somewhat stronger than the predictive value of El Niño phases. Our results have important implications for investors, as well as from the perspective of sustainable decisions involving the environment.

scholarly journals Role of Multidetector Computerised Tomography in Evaluation of Proptosis

2019 ◽  
Vol 9 (2) ◽  
pp. 24-31
Author(s):  
Elina Shrestha ◽  
Narayan Bikram Thapa ◽  
Shankar Bahadur Singh Rajbhandari
Keyword(s):  
Predictive Value ◽  
Clinical Information ◽  
Cross Sectional Study ◽  
Computerised Tomography ◽  
Cross Sectional ◽  
Female Ratio ◽  
Male Female Ratio ◽  
One Year ◽  
Female Male Female

Introduction: Proptosis is defined as bulging of eye anteriorly out of the orbit. Our main objective was to analyze the pattern of computerised tomographic findings in evaluation of proptosis. Computerised tomography (CT) is noninvasive, easily accessible, affordable and reliable imaging which helps in early diagnosis and prompt treatment. Methods: A descriptive cross sectional study of total 58 patients presenting with proptosis referred to our department of radiology for computerised tomography evaluation during one year period were undertaken into study. The clinical information provided by ophthalmologist also helped our study to derive into conclusion. SPSS version 20 software was used for statistical data analysis. Results: Out of 58 patients, the most common cause of proptosis was neoplasm constituting of 25 cases (43.1%). Retinoblastoma was the commonest orbital tumor. Out of remaining cases, 15 (25.8%) were infective, 14 (24.1%) were inflammatory, two (3.44%) were traumatic and remaining two cases (3.44%) had no definitive cause for proptosis. Bilateral proptosis was commonly associated with thyroid ophthalmopathy. Among the subjects 32 were male, 26 were female. Male: Female ratio was 1:1.23. Age group was ranging from 1 month to 73 years.Mean age was 26.4 ± 22 years. Conclusions: Computerised tomography has an important role in distinguishing the different types of lesions based on their characteristics, location and extension prior to undertaking definitive surgical and medical treatment. Overall accuracy of CT in our study was 81%, sensitivity of 82.6%, specificity of 80.6%, positive predictive value of 76% and negative predictive value of 86.2%.

Experience of negative pressure wound therapy over sternal wound healing: A retrospective review

WCET Journal ◽  
2019 ◽  
Vol 39 (2) ◽  
pp. 9-18
Author(s):  
Wai Sze Ho ◽  
Wai Kuen Lee ◽  
Ka Kay Chan ◽  
Choi Ching Fong
Keyword(s):  
Wound Healing ◽  
Negative Pressure ◽  
Negative Pressure Wound Therapy ◽  
Assessment Tool ◽  
Wound Care ◽  
Wound Therapy ◽  
Treatment Pathways ◽  
Wound Assessment ◽  
One Year

Objectives The aim of this study was to retrospectively review the effectiveness of negative pressure wound therapy (NPWT) in sternal wound healing with the use of the validated Bates-Jensen Wound Assessment Tool (BWAT), and explore the role of NPWT over sternal wounds and future treatment pathways. Methods Data was gathered from patients' medical records and the institution's database clinical management system. Seventeen subjects, who had undergone cardiothoracic surgeries and subsequently consulted the wound care team in one year were reviewed. Fourteen of them were included in the analysis. Healing improvement of each sternal wound under continuous NPWT and continuous conventional dressings was studied. In total, 23 continuous NPWT and 13 conventional dressing episodes were analysed with the BWAT. Results Among conventional dressing episodes, sternal wound improvement was 2.5–3% over 10 days to 3.5 weeks, whereas 4–5% sternal healing was achieved in 5 days to 2 weeks with sternal wire presence. Better healing at 11% in 1 week by conventional dressing was attained after sternal wire removal. In NPWT episodes, 8–29%, 13–24%, and 15–46% of healing was observed in 2 weeks, 3.5 to 5 weeks and 6 to 7 weeks, respectively. Only 39% wound healing was acquired at the 13th week of NPWT in one subject. With sternal wire present, 6%–29% wound healing progress was achieved by NPWT in 1–4 weeks, and 16–23% wound improvement in 2 to 4.5 weeks by NWPT after further surgical debridement. After sternal wire removal, 6–34% sternal wound healing occurred by continuous NPWT for 1–2 weeks, and maximum healing at 46% after 2.5 weeks of NPWT were observed. Conclusions Better wound healing was achieved in the NPWT group in comparison to conventional dressings alone. However, suboptimal sternal wound healing by NPWT alone was observed. Removal of sternal wire may improve the effectiveness of NPWT. Successful tertiary closure after NPWT among subjects supports the important bridging role of NPWT in sternal wound healing. Factors causing stagnant sternal wound healing by NPWT alone are discussed.

ANDROST-5-ENE-3β,17β-DIOL IN OVARY OF POST-MENOPAUSAL HYPEROESTROGENIC WOMEN

1968 ◽  
Vol 58 (3) ◽  
pp. 364-376 ◽  
Author(s):  
S. Pesonen ◽  
M. Ikonen ◽  
B-J. Procopé ◽  
A. Saure
Keyword(s):  
Ovarian Tissue ◽  
Cortical Layer ◽  
Vaginal Smears ◽  
Incubation Experiments ◽  
Cell Groups ◽  
Post Menopause ◽  
Reducing Activity ◽  
Post Menopausal ◽  
One Year

ABSTRACT The ovaries of ten patients, at least one year after the post-menopause, were incubated with two Δ5-C19-steroids and also studied histochemically. All these patients had post-menopausal uterine bleeding and increased oestrogen excretion of the urine. The urinary estimations of gonadotrophins, 17-KS, 17-OHCS and pregnanediol were carried out on all patients. Vaginal smears were read according to Papanicolaou, and the endometrium and ovaries were studied histologically. The incubation experiments indicate the presence of Δ5-3β-hydroxysteroid-dehydrogenase. When androst-5-ene-3β,17β-diol was used as precursor the formation of testosterone occurred without any concomitant production of DHA and/or androstenedione. This seems to indicate the possible role of the Δ5-pathway in the formation of testosterone by post-menopausal ovarian tissue. The histochemical reactions indicated a reducing activity on NADH, lactate and glucose-6-phosphate, in certain corpora albicantia, atretic follicles and in diffuse thecoma regions in the cortical layer of the ovary. Steroid-3β-ol-dehydrogenase and β-hydroxybutyrate-dehydrogenase were found only at the edges of certain corpora albicantia, in some individual stroma cell groups and in some atretic follicles. Our studies, both biochemical and histochemical, suggest that the observed increase in the urinary oestrogens of the patients studied might in part at least, be of ovarian origin. This opinion is also supported by the postoperative oestrogen values.

Role of Fibrinolytic Therapy in Empyema Thoracis – A Hospital Based one year Cross Sectional Study

2012 ◽  
Vol 2 (2) ◽  
pp. 345-350
Author(s):  
Dr. Girish.L Dandagi ◽  
◽  
Venkat kalyana kumar. P ◽  
Dr. Dr.Isaac Mathew ◽  
Dr. Dr.G S Gaude Dr. Dr.G S Gaude
Keyword(s):  
Cross Sectional Study ◽  
Fibrinolytic Therapy ◽  
Empyema Thoracis ◽  
Sectional Study ◽  
Cross Sectional ◽  
One Year

The Role of Chess in the Intellectual Development of Childrens from Primary School

2019 ◽  
pp. 58-62
Author(s):  
Vlad Stegariu ◽  
Simona Andreea Popușoi ◽  
Beatrice Abălașei ◽  
Nicolae Lucian Voinea ◽  
Ioan Stelescu ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Cognitive Development ◽  
Primary School ◽  
Intellectual Development ◽  
Resources Allocation ◽  
Control Group ◽  
Cognitive Resources ◽  
One Year ◽  
Better Than ◽  
Chess Playing

Chess playing has a significant role in participants’ resources allocation, both at a psychological level, but mostly concerning the cognitive resources. The aim of the present study was to examine the effect of chess playing on the intellectual development of primary-class students. 67 children were tested using the Raven Standard Progressive Matrices and were distributed in three different groups according to their experience with chess, namely: the control group (formed by students with no experience with chess playing), the beginners group (students with less than one year in chess playing training) and the advanced group (children with more than two years experience with chess). Results indicated that chess playing had a significant effect on the SPM performance, indicating that those in the advanced group performed significantly better than those in the control or in the beginners group. Conclusions of this study tap into the benefits of playing chess with a focus on the children’s’ cognitive development.

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