scholarly journals Future-Generation Perception: Equal or Not Equal? Long-Term Individual Discount Rates for Poland

Energies ◽  
2021 ◽  
Vol 14 (24) ◽  
pp. 8218
Author(s):  
Monika Foltyn-Zarychta
Keyword(s):  
Discount Rate ◽  
Clean Energy ◽  
Future Generation ◽  
Time Frame ◽  
Discount Rates ◽  
Energy Investment ◽  
Public And Private ◽  
Intertemporal Preferences ◽  
Time Frames

Energy-related investments gain increasing attention nowadays, particularly in Poland due to clean-energy investment needed to limit greenhouse gas emissions (GHG) and counteract climate change. However, economic appraisal is problematic: the longevity of impacts inextricably involves intergenerational ethical considerations. A crucial parameter is the choice of a discount rate. The predominant approach to estimate the discount rate in EU countries is the Ramsey rule, based on macroeconomic data, but not referring directly to society’s preferences. Those are considered by studies using surveys to elicit individual discount rates (IDR), but rarely concentrating on intergenerational time frame. The paper aims at delivering an insight into the intergenerational intertemporal preferences for Poland (households, n = 471) focusing on whether respondents are willing to declare zero discount rate intergenerationally and whether their choices differ between the short- and long-term perspectives and between human lives and money. To elicit IDR, two hypothetical investment scenarios were designed: lifesaving programs and lottery gains with delays from 10 to 150 years accompanied by attitude and socioeconomic questions. The results indicate that IDR follows hyperbolic time-decline, and a considerable share of respondents (around 20%) are willing to treat future generations as equally important in the case of human lives, while this proportion for monetary gains is two times lower. The IDR drivers differ between lives and money in respect of socioeconomic profile and attitude characteristics as well as between intragenerational and intergenerational time frames. The findings support (a) the rationale for distinct treatment of intergenerational allocations, (b) the divergence of preferences between public and private impacts, and (c) the switch from single to declining discount rate regime in Poland.

scholarly journals The Dilemmas of Public Vs. Private Goods Discounting for Long-Term Investment Appraisal: The Puzzle of Citizen and Consumer Approaches to Valuation

2020 ◽  
Vol 20 (2) ◽  
pp. 114-133
Author(s):  
Monika Foltyn-Zarychta
Keyword(s):  
Discount Rate ◽  
Contingent Valuation Method ◽  
Discount Rates ◽  
Public And Private ◽  
Private Goods ◽  
Explanatory Variables ◽  
Investment Appraisal ◽  
Intertemporal Preferences ◽  
Use Values

Abstract Research background: An investment appraisal applies a single discount rate across all effects. However, this may be insufficient for heterogenous environmental impacts, mixing private and public goods as well as use and non-use values, where individuals may have multiple intertemporal preferences due to their duality to act as consumer or citizen. Purpose: The paper aims at identifying the scope of discrepancies in the level of discount rate for public and private as well as use-and non-use investment gains. Research methodology: The contingent valuation method is used to elicit stated discount rates for 2 hypothetical investments: environmental or financial gains to distinguish between public and private domain accompanied by two time-frames: short (use values) and long (non-use values). Results: The discount rate for the environment is lower than for money. It is also lower for the long-term horizon in comparison with the short-term perspective. The discrepancies are observed also for explanatory variables in respect to a socio-economic profile and attitude characteristics. Novelty: The paper adds to the discussion on valuation discrepancies between self-interested consumers and socially oriented citizens. The scarcity of previous research examining discount rates for public/private goods as well as the short/long-time horizon make the results relevant for public policy dealing with climate change and environmental protection, providing an insight into individual intertemporal preferences.

Predicting Net Discount Rates: A Comparison of Professional Forecasts, Time-series Forecasts and Traditional Methods

2010 ◽  
Vol 21 (2) ◽  
pp. 147-171 ◽  
Author(s):  
Matthew J. Cushing ◽  
David I. Rosenbaum
Keyword(s):  
Time Series ◽  
Random Walk ◽  
Interest Rate ◽  
Discount Rate ◽  
Discount Rates ◽  
Class Of Estimators ◽  
And Performance ◽  
Two Alternatives ◽  
Better Than

Abstract Previous research proposed two future net discount rate estimators that improved on naïve long-term average and random walk estimators. The proposed estimators were superior in the class of estimators that used only current and past observations on net discount rates. In this paper we consider two extensions. First we examine whether professional forecasts perform significantly better than the two alternatives. Second, we examine the properties and performance of multivariate estimators that account for the potentially differing time-series behaviors of the underlying wage growth and interest rate series.

Long-Term Outcomes of Endoscopic Repair of Cerebrospinal Fluid Leaks and Meningoencephaloceles

2005 ◽  
Vol 19 (6) ◽  
pp. 582-587 ◽  
Author(s):  
Jodi Zuckerman ◽  
James A. Stankiewicz ◽  
James M. Chow
Keyword(s):  
Cerebrospinal Fluid ◽  
Surgical Repair ◽  
Time Frame ◽  
Csf Leak ◽  
Endoscopic Repair ◽  
Medline Search ◽  
Postoperative Time ◽  
Time Frames ◽  
Csf Leaks

Background The management and surgical approach to cerebrospinal fluid (CSF) leaks and meningoencephaloceles have undergone transformation throughout the last 10 years. It is our interest to examine the long-term surgical outcome and reoccurrence rates of CSF leaks or meningoencephaloceles in patients having endoscopic surgical repair. Methods We performed a retrospective evaluation of 50 patients that underwent endoscopic surgical repair of a CSF leak, meningoencephalocele, or both, between September 1985 and October 2003. Results Cumulatively, reoccurrence rates were 15% (7/47) among the CSF leak patients with an average time frame for reoccurrence ranging from 1 to 25 months (average, 7 months). Patients with meningoencephaloceles had an overall reoccurrence rate of 8% (1/13). In addition, a Medline search on CSF leaks and meningoencephaloceles provided the names of 32 authors that have studied outcomes of endoscopic surgical repair. Of the 151 patients still followed in the 5- to 10-year postoperative group, there were 37 recurrences of CSF leaks and 5 reoccurrences of the meningoencephaloceles with a total recurrence rate of 27% (37 + 5/151). Of the 19 patients still followed in the >10-year postoperative group, there were three reoccurrences of CSF leaks and no reoccurrences of meningoencephaloceles, giving a reoccurrence rate of 16% (3 + 0/19). Conclusion Based on our cumulative results, a reoccurrence of a CSF leak or meningoencephalocele after endoscopic repair will occur within the first 2 years postoperatively. Once patients pass these postoperative time frames they are relatively free of reoccurrence from this very effective surgical management. Endoscopic repair results are better than craniotomy with much less morbidity.

scholarly journals The Role of Discounting in Energy Policy Investments

Energies ◽  
2021 ◽  
Vol 14 (19) ◽  
pp. 6055
Author(s):  
Gabriella Maselli ◽  
Antonio Nesticò
Keyword(s):  
Energy Policy ◽  
Discount Rate ◽  
Cash Flows ◽  
Quality Parameter ◽  
Economic Evaluations ◽  
Discount Rates ◽  
Sustainable Investment ◽  
Climate Neutrality ◽  
Over Time

For informing future energy policy decisions, it is essential to choose the correct social discount rate (SDR) for ex-ante economic evaluations. Generally, costs and benefits—both economic and environmental—are weighted through a single constant discount rate. This leads to excessive discounting of the present value of cash flows progressively more distant over time. Evaluating energy projects through constant discount rates would mean underestimating their environmental externalities. This study intends to characterize environmental–economic discounting models calibrated for energy investments, distinguishing between intra- and inter-generational projects. In both cases, the idea is to use two discounting rates: an economic rate to assess financial components and an ecological rate to weight environmental effects. For intra-generational projects, the dual discount rates are assumed to be constant over time. For inter-generational projects, the model is time-declining to give greater weight to environmental damages and benefits in the long-term. Our discounting approaches are based on Ramsey’s growth model and Gollier’s ecological discounting model; the latter is expressed as a function of an index capable of describing the performance of a country’s energy systems. With regards to the models we propose, the novelty lies in the calibration of the “environmental quality” parameter. Regarding the model for long-term projects, another innovation concerns the analysis of risk components linked to economic variables; the growth rate of consumption is modelled as a stochastic variable. The defined models were implemented to determine discount rates for both Italy and China. In both cases, the estimated discount rates are lower than those suggested by governments. This means that the use of dual discounting approaches can guide policymakers towards sustainable investment in line with UN climate neutrality objectives.

Repeatability of methane emission measurements in Australian beef cattle

2016 ◽  
Vol 56 (3) ◽  
pp. 213 ◽  
Author(s):  
K. A. Donoghue ◽  
T. Bird-Gardiner ◽  
P. F. Arthur ◽  
R. M. Herd ◽  
R. S. Hegarty
Keyword(s):  
Methane Production ◽  
Life Time ◽  
Time Frame ◽  
Phenotypic Correlations ◽  
Methane Production Rate ◽  
Short And Long Term ◽  
Time Periods ◽  
Time Frames ◽  
Methane Measurement

Records on 175 young Angus heifer and bull progeny from 46 sires, measured for methane production in respiration chambers, were used to evaluate the repeatability of methane measurement over short- and long-term periods. The traits assessed were dry matter intake (DMI), methane production rate (MPR), methane yield (MPR per unit DMI), and four residual methane (RMP) traits. The RMP traits were computed as actual MPR minus expected MPR, where the expected MPR for the first three RMP traits were calculated from three different published and widely used equations. The expected MPR for the fourth was computed by regressing MPR on DMI, using the data from the study. Animals underwent an initial (first) methane measurement test for 48 h, and one repeat methane measurement test up to 450 days after the first test. Repeat tests were classified into four different time periods: tested across consecutive days; re-tested within 60 days of first test; re-tested 61–120 days after first test; and re-tested 121–450 days after first test. Repeatabilities were calculated for all traits across all time periods, and phenotypic correlations for the same trait measured over time were obtained from bivariate analyses. Methane traits from tests conducted over consecutive days were highly repeatable (0.75–0.94) and highly phenotypically correlated (0.85–0.95). Repeatabilities from tests conducted within 60 days of the first test were moderate to high (0.59–0.91), whereas phenotypic correlations were, in general, moderate (0.30–0.44), with the exception of MPR (0.78). Results for both longer-term time periods (61–120 days and 121–450 days after the first test) were very similar, with low estimates of repeatabilities (0.16–0.27) and phenotypic correlations (0.12–0.27). Correlations between sire progeny means from the first and repeat methane test were moderate (0.46–0.77) for all traits except RMPR (0.19). Results from this study indicate that methane traits from tests conducted either on consecutive days or within a short-term time frame afterward (~60 days) are highly repeatable and highly phenotypically correlated. However, methane tests conducted over longer-term time frames are substantially, but consistently, less repeatable and are lowly phenotypically correlated, which indicates that multiple measures may be required to accurately record methane traits over the life time of an animal.

scholarly journals Multiple Discount Rates for Evaluating Public Forestry Investments

1979 ◽  
Vol 55 (1) ◽  
pp. 17-20 ◽  
Author(s):  
Bennett B. Foster
Keyword(s):  
Social Welfare ◽  
Empirical Evidence ◽  
Discount Rate ◽  
High Rate ◽  
Discount Rates ◽  
Investment Evaluation ◽  
Forestry Investments ◽  
Low Rate ◽  
Multiple Step

The critical nature of the discount rate in public forestry investment evaluation is generally recognized, as is the philosophical conflict between the need for a high rate which reflects current economic and social realities, and a low rate which assures permanence and the attainment of long-term social welfare goals. Others have suggested a dual rate approach for solving this issue. The rationale leading to their dual-rate concept can be expanded into a multiple-rate concept. In addition, empirical evidence supports a multiple rate concept: one in which rates would be influenced by the duration of investment and approximated by a formula-based continuum or a multiple-step schedule. No attempt is made to set specific rates; however, there is evidence that rates above 8% are reasonable for only a decade or two, rates above 5% reasonable for durations up to approximately 50 years, and lower rates being reasonable for longer durations.

scholarly journals Discount rate selection for long-term sequential mineral projects

2017 ◽  
Vol 33 (3) ◽  
pp. 49-70 ◽  
Author(s):  
Piotr W. Saługa
Keyword(s):  
Economic Evaluation ◽  
Cash Flow ◽  
Discount Rate ◽  
Flow Analysis ◽  
Capital Intensity ◽  
Cash Flows ◽  
Time Varying ◽  
Discount Rates ◽  
Capital Costs

AbstractMineral projects depict various specific features that differentiate them from alternative investments in other industries. Among these features, one can specify unique characteristics of mineral deposits such as scarcity, geological setting and structure, resource/reserve uncertainty and depletability. Resource uncertainty results in the sequential nature of operations (exploration, development and production stages). Other specific features of mineral projects include long investment - and production periods, high capital intensity, varying production conditions, unpredictability and high volatility of mineral prices, etc. Specific features of mineral projects are sources of exceptionally high risks. To ensure the payback of high capital costs these significant risks must be addressed in the economic evaluation of a mineral project. In the discounted cash flow analysis, DCF, which is the most commonly used in evaluations of such ventures, all project uncertainties are reflected in a level of the discount rate used for the actualization of future cash flow values. The riskier project has a higher discount rate. Apart from being extremely high risk, mineral projects are both sequential and long-term - the first feature means that the extent of a project risk decreases dramatically over time, and second - that care should be taken when evaluating these projects because cash flows arising in later years of the project lifetime have little value. The paper delivers a proposal to apply the time-varying discount rate to the economic evaluation of a mineral project. The first part introduces a commonly accepted approach to evaluating discount rates along with conceptions of adjusting them to risks of individual projects. In the following sections, the article presents the current practice in the setting of discount rates for mineral projects and then a proposed modification of this approach by introducing the time-varying discount rate. In the end, a verification of the proposed suggestion based on a copper project example has been delivered.

scholarly journals Interpretable Forecasting of Energy Demand in the Residential Sector

Energies ◽  
2021 ◽  
Vol 14 (20) ◽  
pp. 6568
Author(s):  
Nikos Sakkas ◽  
Sofia Yfanti ◽  
Costas Daskalakis ◽  
Eduard Barbu ◽  
Marharyta Domnich
Keyword(s):  
Decision Support ◽  
Energy Demand ◽  
Demand Forecasting ◽  
Time Frame ◽  
Policy Support ◽  
Investment Planning ◽  
Explanatory Variables ◽  
Residential Sector ◽  
Time Frames

Energy demand forecasting is practiced in several time frames; different explanatory variables are used in each case to serve different decision support mandates. For example, in the short, daily, term building level, forecasting may serve as a performance baseline. On the other end, we have long-term, policy-oriented forecasting exercises. TIMES (an acronym for The Integrated Markal Efom System) allows us to model supply and anticipated technology shifts over a long-term horizon, often extending as far away in time as 2100. Between these two time frames, we also have a mid-term forecasting time frame, that of a few years ahead. Investigations here are aimed at policy support, although in a more mid-term horizon, we address issues such as investment planning and pricing. In this paper, we develop and evaluate statistical and neural network approaches for this mid-term forecasting of final energy and electricity for the residential sector in six EU countries (Germany, the Netherlands, Sweden, Spain, Portugal and Greece). Various possible approaches to model the explanatory variables used are presented, discussed, and assessed as to their suitability. Our end goal extends beyond model accuracy; we also include interpretability and counterfactual concepts and analysis, aiming at the development of a modelling approach that can provide decision support for strategies aimed at influencing energy demand.

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