scholarly journals Identification of COVID-19 Waves: Considerations for Research and Policy

2021 ◽  
Vol 18 (21) ◽  
pp. 11058
Author(s):  
Andrés Ayala ◽  
Pablo Villalobos Dintrans ◽  
Felipe Elorrieta ◽  
Claudio Castillo ◽  
Claudio Vargas ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Decision Making ◽  
Sensitivity Analysis ◽  
Policy Making ◽  
Quantitative Method ◽  
Linear Models ◽  
Incidence Rates ◽  
Metropolitan Region ◽  
Methodological Choices ◽  
Multivariate Linear Models ◽  
Research And Policy

The identification of COVID-19 waves is a matter of the utmost importance, both for research and decision making. This study uses COVID-19 information from the 52 municipalities of the Metropolitan Region, Chile, and presents a quantitative method—based on weekly accumulated incidence rates—to define COVID-19 waves. We explore three different criteria to define the duration of a wave, and performed a sensitivity analysis using multivariate linear models to show their commonalities and differences. The results show that, compared to a benchmark definition (a 100-day wave), the estimations using longer periods of study are worse in terms of the model’s overall fit (adjusted R2). The article shows that defining a COVID-19 wave is not necessarily simple, and has consequences when performing data analysis. The results highlight the need to adopt well-defined and well-justified definitions for COVID-19 waves, since these methodological choices can have an impact in research and policy making.

scholarly journals A top-level model of case-based argumentation for explanation: Formalisation and experiments

2021 ◽  
pp. 1-36
Author(s):  
Henry Prakken ◽  
Rosa Ratsma
Keyword(s):  
Machine Learning ◽  
Decision Making ◽  
Linear Models ◽  
Evaluation Studies ◽  
Data Sets ◽  
Machine Learning Applications ◽  
Level Model ◽  
Similarities And Differences ◽  
Further Development ◽  
Case Based

This paper proposes a formal top-level model of explaining the outputs of machine-learning-based decision-making applications and evaluates it experimentally with three data sets. The model draws on AI & law research on argumentation with cases, which models how lawyers draw analogies to past cases and discuss their relevant similarities and differences in terms of relevant factors and dimensions in the problem domain. A case-based approach is natural since the input data of machine-learning applications can be seen as cases. While the approach is motivated by legal decision making, it also applies to other kinds of decision making, such as commercial decisions about loan applications or employee hiring, as long as the outcome is binary and the input conforms to this paper’s factor- or dimension format. The model is top-level in that it can be extended with more refined accounts of similarities and differences between cases. It is shown to overcome several limitations of similar argumentation-based explanation models, which only have binary features and do not represent the tendency of features towards particular outcomes. The results of the experimental evaluation studies indicate that the model may be feasible in practice, but that further development and experimentation is needed to confirm its usefulness as an explanation model. Main challenges here are selecting from a large number of possible explanations, reducing the number of features in the explanations and adding more meaningful information to them. It also remains to be investigated how suitable our approach is for explaining non-linear models.

‘Seeing like a city’, or ‘seeing like a state’ in a city? Paris, capital of femonationalism

2021 ◽  
pp. 239965442110025
Author(s):  
Claire Hancock
Keyword(s):  
Decision Making ◽  
Urban Politics ◽  
Policy Making ◽  
Common Factor ◽  
Local Democracy ◽  
Municipal Policy ◽  
City Life ◽  
Women In Decision Making ◽  
The City

This paper questions the ‘seeing like a city’ vs. ‘seeing like a state’ opposition through a detailed discussion of urban politics in the city of Paris, France, a prime example of the ways in which the national remains a driving dimension of city life. This claim is examined by a consideration of the shortcomings of Paris’s recent and timid commitment local democracy, lacking recognition of the diversity of its citizens, and the ways in which the inclusion of more women in decision-making arenas has failed to advance the ‘feminization of politics’. A common factor in these defining features of the Hidalgo administration seems to be the prevalence of ‘femonationalism’ and its influence over municipal policy-making.

scholarly journals Multiple-Criteria Decision-Making and Sensitivity Analysis for Selection of Materials for Knee Implant Femoral Component

Materials ◽  
2021 ◽  
Vol 14 (8) ◽  
pp. 2084
Author(s):  
Raman Kumar ◽  
Rohit Dubey ◽  
Sehijpal Singh ◽  
Sunpreet Singh ◽  
Chander Prakash ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Decision Making ◽  
Sensitivity Analysis ◽  
Femoral Component ◽  
Human Life ◽  
Multiple Criteria Decision Making ◽  
Multiple Criteria ◽  
Biomedical Science ◽  
Human Beings ◽  
Weighted Sum Method ◽  
Selection Of

Total knee replacement (TKR) is a remarkable achievement in biomedical science that enhances human life. However, human beings still suffer from knee-joint-related problems such as aseptic loosening caused by excessive wear between articular surfaces, stress-shielding of the bone by prosthesis, and soft tissue development in the interface of bone and implant due to inappropriate selection of TKR material. The choice of most suitable materials for the femoral component of TKR is a critical decision; therefore, in this research paper, a hybrid multiple-criteria decision-making (MCDM) tactic is applied using the degree of membership (DoM) technique with a varied system, using the weighted sum method (WSM), the weighted product method (WPM), the weighted aggregated sum product assessment method (WASPAS), an evaluation based on distance from average solution (EDAS), and a technique for order of preference by similarity to ideal solution (TOPSIS). The weights of importance are assigned to different criteria by the equal weights method (EWM). Furthermore, sensitivity analysis is conducted to check the solidity of the projected tactic. The weights of importance are varied using the entropy weights technique (EWT) and the standard deviation method (SDM). The projected hybrid MCDM methodology is simple, reliable and valuable for a conflicting decision-making environment.

Life Course Socioeconomic Position, Intergenerational Social Mobility, and Hypertension Incidence in ELSA-Brasil

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
José Aparecido Soares Lopes ◽  
Luana Giatti ◽  
Rosane Harter Griep ◽  
Antonio Alberto da Silva Lopes ◽  
Sheila Maria Alvim Matos ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Life Course ◽  
Social Mobility ◽  
Socioeconomic Position ◽  
Linear Models ◽  
Sociodemographic Factors ◽  
Incidence Rates ◽  
Explanatory Variables ◽  
Rate Ratios

Abstract Background Life course epidemiology is a powerful framework to unravel the role of socioeconomic position (SEP) disparities in hypertension (HTN). This study investigated whether life course SEP is associated with HTN incidence. Specifically, to test whether cumulative low SEP throughout life and unfavorable intergenerational social mobility increased HTN incidence. METHODS Longitudinal analysis of 8,754 ELSA-Brasil participants without HTN or cardiovascular in visit 1 (2008–2010). The response variable was the incidence of HTN between visits 1 and 2 (2012–2014). The explanatory variables were childhood, youth, and adulthood SEP, cumulative low SEP, and intergenerational social mobility. Associations were estimated by incidence rate ratios (IRRs) obtained by generalized linear models, with Poisson distribution and logarithmic link function, after adjustment for sociodemographic, behavioral, and health factors. RESULTS The incidence of HTN was 43.2/1,000 person-years, being higher in males, elderly (70–74 years), self-declared black, and low SEP individuals. After considering sociodemographic factors, low SEP in childhood, youth, and adulthood remained statistically associated with increased HTN incidence. Individuals in the third (IRR: 1.26; 95% confidence interval (CI): 1.11–1.44) and fourth top quartiles (IRR: 1.29; 95% CI: 1.11–1.49) of cumulative low SEP, vs. first, as well as those with low stable intergenerational trajectory (IRR: 1.29; 95% CI: 1.16–1.43), vs. high stable, also had increased HTN incidence rates. Conclusions Socioeconomic disparities at all phases of the life cycle appear to raise HTN incidence rates, being the individuals with greater accumulation of exposure to low SEP and with more unfavorable intergenerational mobility at greatest risk, even in a short follow-up time.

scholarly journals Complex T-spherical fuzzy Dombi aggregation operators and their applications in multiple-criteria decision-making

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Faruk Karaaslan ◽  
Mohammed Allaw Dawood Dawood
Keyword(s):  
Decision Making ◽  
Sensitivity Analysis ◽  
Fuzzy Set ◽  
Multiple Criteria Decision Making ◽  
Aggregation Operators ◽  
Multi Criteria Decision Making ◽  
Two Dimensional ◽  
Weighted Arithmetic ◽  
Mcdm Method ◽  
Dombi Operations

AbstractComplex fuzzy (CF) sets (CFSs) have a significant role in modelling the problems involving two-dimensional information. Recently, the extensions of CFSs have gained the attention of researchers studying decision-making methods. The complex T-spherical fuzzy set (CTSFS) is an extension of the CFSs introduced in the last times. In this paper, we introduce the Dombi operations on CTSFSs. Based on Dombi operators, we define some aggregation operators, including complex T-spherical Dombi fuzzy weighted arithmetic averaging (CTSDFWAA) operator, complex T-spherical Dombi fuzzy weighted geometric averaging (CTSDFWGA) operator, complex T-spherical Dombi fuzzy ordered weighted arithmetic averaging (CTSDFOWAA) operator, complex T-spherical Dombi fuzzy ordered weighted geometric averaging (CTSDFOWGA) operator, and we obtain some of their properties. In addition, we develop a multi-criteria decision-making (MCDM) method under the CTSF environment and present an algorithm for the proposed method. To show the process of the proposed method, we present an example related to diagnosing the COVID-19. Besides this, we present a sensitivity analysis to reveal the advantages and restrictions of our method.

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