Sea Level Rise Scenario for 2100 A.D. in the Heritage Site of Pyrgi (Santa Severa, Italy)

Sea level rise is one of the main risk factors for the preservation of cultural heritage sites located along the coasts of the Mediterranean basin. Coastal retreat, erosion, and storm surges are posing serious threats to archaeological and historical structures built along the coastal zones of this region. In order to assess the coastal changes by the end of 2100 under the expected sea level rise of about 1 m, we need a detailed determination of the current coastline position based on high resolution Digital Surface Models (DSM). This paper focuses on the use of very high-resolution Unmanned Aerial Vehicles (UAV) imagery for the generation of ultra-high-resolution mapping of the coastal archaeological area of Pyrgi, Italy, which is located near Rome. The processing of the UAV imagery resulted in the generation of a DSM and an orthophoto with an accuracy of 1.94 cm/pixel. The integration of topographic data with two sea level rise projections in the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) AR5 2.6 and 8.5 climatic scenarios for this area of the Mediterranean are used to map sea level rise scenarios for 2050 and 2100. The effects of the Vertical Land Motion (VLM) as estimated from two nearby continuous Global Navigation Satellite System (GNSS) stations located as close as possible to the coastline are included in the analysis. Relative sea level rise projections provide values at 0.30 ± 0.15 cm by 2050 and 0.56 ± 0.22 cm by 2100 for the IPCC AR5 8.5 scenarios and at 0.13 ± 0.05 cm by 2050 and 0.17 ± 0.22 cm by 2100, for the IPCC Fifth Assessment Report (AR5) 2.6 scenario. These values of rise correspond to a potential beach loss between 12.6% and 23.5% in 2100 for Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP) 2.6 and 8.5 scenarios, respectively, while, during the highest tides, the beach will be provisionally reduced by up to 46.4%. In higher sea level positions and storm surge conditions, the expected maximum wave run up for return time of 1 and 100 years is at 3.37 m and 5.76 m, respectively, which is capable to exceed the local dune system. With these sea level rise scenarios, Pyrgi with its nearby Etruscan temples and the medieval castle of Santa Severa will be exposed to high risk of marine flooding, especially during storm surges. Our scenarios show that suitable adaptation and protection strategies are required.

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Sea Level Rise Scenario for 2100 A.D. in the Heritage Site of Pyrgi (Santa Severa, Italy)

10.20944/preprints201910.0202.v1 ◽

2019 ◽

Author(s):

Marco Anzidei ◽

Fawzi Doumaz ◽

Antonio Vecchio ◽

Enrico Serpelloni ◽

Luca Pizzimenti ◽

...

Keyword(s):

High Resolution ◽

Sea Level Rise ◽

Sea Level ◽

Storm Surges ◽

Coastal Zones ◽

Heritage Sites ◽

Historical Structures ◽

Vertical Land Motion ◽

Climatic Scenarios ◽

The Mediterranean

Sea level rise is one of the main factor of risk for the preservation of cultural heritage sites located along the coasts of the Mediterranean basin. Coastal retreat, erosion and storm surges are yet posing serious threats to archaeological and historical structures built along the coastal zones of this region. In order to assess the coastal changes by the end of 2100 under an expected sea level rise of about 1 m, a detailed determination of the current coastline position and the availability of high resolution DSM, is needed. This paper focuses on the use of very high-resolution UAV imagery for the generation of ultra-high resolution mapping of the coastal archaeological area of Pyrgi, near Rome (Italy). The processing of the UAV imagery resulted in the generation of a DSM and an orthophoto, with an accuracy of 1.94 cm/pixel. The integration of topographic data with two sea level rise projections in the IPCC AR5 2.6 and 8.5 climatic scenarios for this area of the Mediterranean, were used to map sea level rise scenarios for 2050 and 2100. The effects of the Vertical Land Motion (VLM) as estimated from two nearby continuous GPS stations located as much as close to the coastline, were included in the analysis. Relative sea level rise projections provide values at 0.30±0.15 cm by 2050 and 0.56±0.22 by 2100, for the IPCC AR5 8.5 scenarios and at 0.13±0.05 cm by 2050 and 0.17±0.22 by 2100, for the IPCC AR5 2.6 scenario. These values of rise will correspond to a potential beach loss between 12.6% and 23.5% in 2100 for RCP 2.6 and 8.5 scenarios, respectively, while during the highest tides the beach will be reduced up to 46.4%. With these sea level rise scenarios, Pyrgi with its nearby Etruscan temples and the medieval castle of Santa Severa will be soon exposed to high risk of marine flooding, especially during storm surges, thus requiring suitable adaptation strategies.

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Land subsidence and sea-level rise for six coastal zones of the Mediterranean region: implications for flooding scenarios for 2100 from the SAVEMEDCOASTS-2 project

10.5194/egusphere-egu21-7698 ◽

2021 ◽

Author(s):

Michele Crosetto ◽

Marco Anzidei ◽

Giovanna Forlenza ◽

José Navarro ◽

Petros Patias ◽

...

Keyword(s):

Sea Level Rise ◽

Sea Level ◽

Land Subsidence ◽

Mediterranean Region ◽

Tide Gauge ◽

Storm Surges ◽

Satellite System ◽

Coastal Zones ◽

Intergovernmental Panel ◽

The Mediterranean

Here we show and discuss the first results arising from the SAVEMEDCOASTS-2 Project (Sea Level Rise Scenarios along the Mediterranean Coasts - 2, funded by the European Commission ECHO), which aims to respond to the need for people and assets prevention from natural disasters in the Mediterranean coastal zones placed at less than 1 m above sea level, which are vulnerable to the combined effect of sea-level rise and land subsidence.We use geodetic data from global navigation satellite system (GNSS), synthetic aperture radar interferometric measurements (InSAR), Lidar and tide gauge data, and the latest IPCC - SROCC projections of sea-level rise released by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, to estimate the Relative Sea Level Rise to realize marine flooding scenarios expected for 2100 AD in six targeted areas of the Mediterranean region.We focus on the Ebro (Spain), Rhone (France), and Nile (Egypt) river deltas; the reclamation area of Basento (Italy), the coastal plain of Thessaloniki (Greece), and the Venice lagoon (Italy). Results, from Copernicus Sentinel-1A (S1A) and Sentinel-1B (S1B) sensors, highlighted the variable spatial rates of land subsidence up to some cm/yr in most of the investigated areas representing a relevant driver of local SLR. All the investigated zones show valuable coastal infrastructures and natural reserves where SLR and land subsidence are exacerbating coastal retreat, land flooding, and storm surges.The hazard implications for the population living along the shore should push land planners and decision-makers to take into account scenarios similar to that reported in this study for cognizant coastal management.

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Coastal sea level rise at Senetosa (Corsica) during the Jason altimetry missions

Ocean Science ◽

10.5194/os-16-1165-2020 ◽

2020 ◽

Vol 16 (5) ◽

pp. 1165-1182 ◽

Cited By ~ 1

Author(s):

Yvan Gouzenes ◽

Fabien Léger ◽

Anny Cazenave ◽

Florence Birol ◽

Pascal Bonnefond ◽

...

Keyword(s):

High Resolution ◽

Sea Level Rise ◽

Sea Level ◽

Leading Edge ◽

Satellite System ◽

Careful Examination ◽

Coastal Zones ◽

Coastal Sea ◽

Potential Contributor ◽

Global Navigation Satellite

Abstract. In the context of the ESA Climate Change Initiative project, we are engaged in a regional reprocessing of high-resolution (20 Hz) altimetry data of the classical missions in a number of the world's coastal zones. It is done using the ALES (Adaptive Leading Edge Subwaveform) retracker combined with the X-TRACK system dedicated to improve geophysical corrections at the coast. Using the Jason-1 and Jason-2 satellite data, high-resolution, along-track sea level time series have been generated, and coastal sea level trends have been computed over a 14-year time span (from July 2002 to June 2016). In this paper, we focus on a particular coastal site where the Jason track crosses land, Senetosa, located south of Corsica in the Mediterranean Sea, for two reasons: (1) the rate of sea level rise estimated in this project increases significantly in the last 4–5 km to the coast compared to what is observed further offshore, and (2) Senetosa is the calibration site for the TOPEX/Poseidon and Jason altimetry missions, which are equipped for that purpose with in situ instrumentation, in particular tide gauges and a Global Navigation Satellite System (GNSS) antenna. A careful examination of all the potential errors that could explain the increased rate of sea level rise close to the coast (e.g., spurious trends in the geophysical corrections, imperfect inter-mission bias estimate, decrease of valid data close to the coast and errors in waveform retracking) has been carried out, but none of these effects appear able to explain the trend increase. We further explored the possibility that it results from real physical processes. Change in wave conditions was investigated, but wave setup was excluded as a potential contributor because the magnitude was too low and too localized in the immediate vicinity of the shoreline. A preliminary model-based investigation about the contribution of coastal currents indicates that it could be a plausible explanation of the observed change in sea level trend close to the coast.

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Relative Sea-Level Rise and Potential Submersion Risk for 2100 on 16 Coastal Plains of the Mediterranean Sea

Water ◽

10.3390/w12082173 ◽

2020 ◽

Vol 12 (8) ◽

pp. 2173 ◽

Cited By ~ 3

Author(s):

Fabrizio Antonioli ◽

Giovanni De Falco ◽

Valeria Lo Presti ◽

Lorenzo Moretti ◽

Giovanni Scardino ◽

...

Keyword(s):

Sea Level Rise ◽

Mediterranean Sea ◽

Sea Level ◽

Vertical Movement ◽

Observation Data ◽

Coastal Plains ◽

Coastal Zones ◽

High Definition ◽

Mediterranean Countries ◽

The Mediterranean

The coasts of the Mediterranean Sea are dynamic habitats in which human activities have been conducted for centuries and which feature micro-tidal environments with about 0.40 m of range. For this reason, human settlements are still concentrated along a narrow coastline strip, where any change in the sea level and coastal dynamics may impact anthropic activities. In the frame of the RITMARE and the Copernicus Projects, we analyzed light detection and ranging (LiDAR) and Copernicus Earth Observation data to provide estimates of potential marine submersion for 2100 for 16 small-sized coastal plains located in the Italian peninsula and four Mediterranean countries (France, Spain, Tunisia, Cyprus) all characterized by different geological, tectonic and morphological features. The objective of this multidisciplinary study is to provide the first maps of sea-level rise scenarios for 2100 for the IPCC RCP 8.5 and Rahmstorf (2007) projections for the above affected coastal zones, which are the locations of touristic resorts, railways, airports and heritage sites. On the basis of our model (eustatic projection for 2100, glaciohydrostasy values and tectonic vertical movement), we provide 16 high-definition submersion maps. We estimated a potential loss of land for the above areas of between about 148 km2 (IPCC-RCP8.5 scenario) and 192 km2 (Rahmstorf scenario), along a coastline length of about 400 km.

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Combining Sentinel-1A/B InSAR and high-resolution topography in the study of coastal megacities

10.5194/egusphere-egu2020-4267 ◽

2020 ◽

Author(s):

Kristy Tiampo ◽

Michael Willis ◽

R. Steven Nerem ◽

Heijkoop Eduard ◽

Johnson Joel

Keyword(s):

High Resolution ◽

Los Angeles ◽

Sea Level Rise ◽

Sea Level ◽

Developing World ◽

Ground Deformation ◽

Storm Surges ◽

Interferometric Synthetic Aperture Radar ◽

Rapid Urbanization ◽

Surface Models

Today, the joint phenomena of rapid urbanization and population growth has resulted in an increase in the number of cities of over 10 million inhabitants, or megacities, worldwide. &#160;While western megacities such as Los Angeles have been relatively stable in recent years, the developing world saw an increase from two to thirteen between 1975 and 2000 (http://www.igbp.net). In 2011, sixteen of the 23 global cities that fell into that category were coastal (UN-DESA 2012). Their growth is often coupled with unplanned urbanization and sprawl, with important effects on coastlines, demographics and ecosystems (Angel et al. 2011; Allison et al., 2016).&#160; The associated risk is exacerbated by anthropogenic coastal subsidence processes and sea-level rise due to climate change, potentially increasing inundation, flooding, storm surges and infrastructure damage. Ground deformation phenomena, either uplift and/or subsidence, can arise from volcanic and tectonic processes, hydrocarbon exploitation, groundwater pumping and shallow compaction of sediments, particularly along coastal deltas. A better understanding of the processes affecting coastal megacities can be achieved through the combination of satellite and ground-based measurements.&#160; Here we combine both high-resolution topography, in the form of optical digital surface models (DSMs), and differential interferometric synthetic aperture radar (DInSAR), to better characterize the effects of local and regional subsidence, coastal erosion, sea-level rise and urbanization in several megacities from around the developing world.&#160;&#160; DInSAR time series from Sentinel-1A/B images, coregistered to high-resolution DSMs, are used to constrain local and regional ground deformation, while those same DSMs can be used to better model inundation due to sea level rise. &#160;Here we present results for a number of cities, including but not limited to Mumbai, Lagos and Dhaka.

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Coastal Lowlands' Inundation Risk Assessment with High-resolution TanDEM-X DEM in Qingdao Coastal Plains, China

Proceedings of the International Association of Hydrological Sciences ◽

10.5194/piahs-382-621-2020 ◽

2020 ◽

Vol 382 ◽

pp. 621-627

Author(s):

Peng Li ◽

Miao Li ◽

Zhenhong Li ◽

Houjie Wang

Keyword(s):

High Resolution ◽

Sea Level Rise ◽

Sea Level ◽

Jiaozhou Bay ◽

Storm Surges ◽

Weather Conditions ◽

The Yellow Sea ◽

Coastal Protection ◽

Extreme Precipitation Events

Abstract. Global warming plays a principal role on the continuous increasing sea-level rise, which exposes coastal regions worldwide to flooding threat. However, the challenge is that the regional impact of SLR flooding can be variable, especially when considering multiple effects of land subsidence, long-term general sea-level rise and extreme weather conditions like storm surge. In this paper, we build module with high-resolution InSAR-derived precision DEMs with resolution of 4 m, long-term SLR trend and episodic signals of climate change to calculate the relative sea level in AD 2100 on various scenarios over the Jiaozhou Bay, one typical region of the biggest peninsula in China and an important economic centre adjoining to the Yellow Sea. The potential of TanDEM-X DEM for coastal vulnerability mapping in the Qingdao coastal area were evaluated in order to investigate the effect of the accuracy and resolution of coastal topography on the reliability and usefulness of elevation-based sea-level rise assessments. The results reveal that coastal lowland areas over the JiaozhouBay are extremely vulnerable in the following years within 21st century with use of high-accuracy TanDEM-X DEM data, which would be an advantage for further elevation-based dynamic assessments of coastal inundation events considering storm surges, abnormal high tides, and extreme precipitation events. which would be vital for locally coastal protection and decision-making.

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Coastal Sea Level rise at Senetosa (Corsica) during the Jason altimetry missions

10.5194/os-2020-3 ◽

2020 ◽

Cited By ~ 1

Author(s):

Yvan Gouzenes ◽

Fabien Léger ◽

Anny Cazenave ◽

Florence Birol ◽

Pascal Bonnefond ◽

...

Keyword(s):

High Resolution ◽

Sea Level Rise ◽

Sea Level ◽

Leading Edge ◽

Careful Examination ◽

Coastal Zones ◽

Small Magnitude ◽

Coastal Sea ◽

Potential Contributor ◽

Set Up

Abstract. In the context of the ESA Climate Change Initiative project, we are engaged in a regional reprocessing of high-resolution (20 Hz) altimetry data of the classical missions in a number of coastal zones worldwide. It is done using the ALES (Adaptive Leading Edge Subwaveform) retracker combined with the X-TRACK system dedicated to improve geophysical corrections at the coast. Using the Jason-1 & 2 satellite data, high-resolution, along-track sea level time series have been generated and coastal sea level trends have been computed over a 14-year time span (from July 2002 to June 2016). In this paper, we focus on a particular coastal site where a Jason track crosses land, Senetosa, located south of Corsica in the Mediterranean Sea, for two reasons: (1) the rate of sea level rise estimated in this project increases significantly in the last 4–5 km to the coast, compared to what is observed further offshore, and (2) Senetosa is the calibration site for the Topex/Poseidon and Jason altimetry missions, equipped for that purpose with in situ instrumentation, in particular tide gauges and GNSS antennas. A careful examination of all the potential errors that could explain the increased rate of sea level rise close to the coast (e.g., spurious trends in the geophysical corrections, imperfect intermission bias estimate, decrease of valid data close to the coast and errors in waveform retracking) has been carried out, but none of these effects appear able to explain the trend increase. We further explored the possibility it results from real physical processes. Change in wave conditions was investigated but wave set up was excluded as a potential contributor because of too small magnitude and too localized in the immediate vicinity of the shoreline. Preliminary model-based investigation about the contribution of coastal currents indicates that it could be a plausible explanation of the observed change in sea level trend close to the coast.

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Estimating sea-level allowances for Atlantic Canada under conditions of uncertain sea-level rise

Proceedings of the International Association of Hydrological Sciences ◽

10.5194/piahs-365-16-2015 ◽

2015 ◽

Vol 365 ◽

pp. 16-21

Author(s):

B. Greenan ◽

L. Zhai ◽

J. Hunter ◽

T. S. James ◽

G. Han

Keyword(s):

Sea Level Rise ◽

Sea Level ◽

21St Century ◽

Tide Gauge ◽

Atlantic Coast ◽

Gumbel Distribution ◽

Storm Surges ◽

Atlantic Canada ◽

Intergovernmental Panel ◽

Land Uplift

Abstract. This paper documents the methodology of computing sea-level rise allowances for Atlantic Canada in the 21st century under conditions of uncertain sea-level rise. The sea-level rise allowances are defined as the amount by which an asset needs to be raised in order to maintain the same likelihood of future flooding events as that site has experienced in the recent past. The allowances are determined by combination of the statistics of present tides and storm surges (storm tides) and the regional projections of sea-level rise and associated uncertainty. Tide-gauge data for nine sites from the Canadian Atlantic coast are used to derive the scale parameters of present sea-level extremes using the Gumbel distribution function. The allowances in the 21st century, with respect to the year 1990, were computed for the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) A1FI emission scenario. For Atlantic Canada, the allowances are regionally variable and, for the period 1990–2050, range between –13 and 38 cm while, for the period 1990–2100, they range between 7 and 108 cm. The negative allowances in the northern Gulf of St. Lawrence region are caused by land uplift due to glacial isostatic adjustment (GIA).

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Potential Impacts of Storm Surges and Sea-level Rise on Nesting Habitat of Red-breasted Mergansers (Mergus serrator) on Barrier Islands in New Brunswick, Canada

Waterbirds ◽

10.1675/063.038.0110 ◽

2015 ◽

Vol 38 (1) ◽

pp. 77-85 ◽

Cited By ~ 1

Author(s):

Shawn R. Craik ◽

Alan R. Hanson ◽

Rodger D. Titman ◽

Matthew L. Mahoney ◽

Éric Tremblay

Keyword(s):

New Brunswick ◽

Sea Level Rise ◽

Sea Level ◽

Storm Surges ◽

Barrier Islands ◽

Nesting Habitat ◽

Mergus Serrator ◽

And Sea Level

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Impact of climate change on New York City’s coastal flood hazard: Increasing flood heights from the preindustrial to 2300 CE

Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences ◽

10.1073/pnas.1703568114 ◽

2017 ◽

Vol 114 (45) ◽

pp. 11861-11866 ◽

Cited By ~ 73

Author(s):

Andra J. Garner ◽

Michael E. Mann ◽

Kerry A. Emanuel ◽

Robert E. Kopp ◽

Ning Lin ◽

...

Keyword(s):

New York ◽

New York City ◽

Sea Level Rise ◽

Sea Level ◽

Tropical Cyclones ◽

York City ◽

Flood Hazard ◽

Storm Surges ◽

Cmip5 Models ◽

Tidal Level

The flood hazard in New York City depends on both storm surges and rising sea levels. We combine modeled storm surges with probabilistic sea-level rise projections to assess future coastal inundation in New York City from the preindustrial era through 2300 CE. The storm surges are derived from large sets of synthetic tropical cyclones, downscaled from RCP8.5 simulations from three CMIP5 models. The sea-level rise projections account for potential partial collapse of the Antarctic ice sheet in assessing future coastal inundation. CMIP5 models indicate that there will be minimal change in storm-surge heights from 2010 to 2100 or 2300, because the predicted strengthening of the strongest storms will be compensated by storm tracks moving offshore at the latitude of New York City. However, projected sea-level rise causes overall flood heights associated with tropical cyclones in New York City in coming centuries to increase greatly compared with preindustrial or modern flood heights. For the various sea-level rise scenarios we consider, the 1-in-500-y flood event increases from 3.4 m above mean tidal level during 1970–2005 to 4.0–5.1 m above mean tidal level by 2080–2100 and ranges from 5.0–15.4 m above mean tidal level by 2280–2300. Further, we find that the return period of a 2.25-m flood has decreased from ∼500 y before 1800 to ∼25 y during 1970–2005 and further decreases to ∼5 y by 2030–2045 in 95% of our simulations. The 2.25-m flood height is permanently exceeded by 2280–2300 for scenarios that include Antarctica’s potential partial collapse.

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