scholarly journals Effects of Global Warming on the Poleward Heat Transport by Non-Stationary Large-Scale Atmospheric Eddies, and Feedbacks Affecting the Formation of the Arctic Climate

2021 ◽  
Vol 9 (8) ◽  
pp. 867
Author(s):  
Sergei Soldatenko
Keyword(s):  
Global Warming ◽  
Heat Transport ◽  
Large Scale ◽  
Arctic Sea Ice ◽  
Arctic Climate ◽  
The Arctic ◽  
Arctic Amplification ◽  
Near Surface ◽  
Feedback Mechanisms ◽  
Arctic Sea

It is a well-known fact that the observed rise in the Arctic near-surface temperature is more than double the increase in global mean temperature. However, the entire scientific picture of the formation of the Arctic amplification has not yet taken final shape and the causes of this phenomenon are still being discussed within the scientific community. Some recent studies suggest that the atmospheric equator-to-pole transport of heat and moisture, and also radiative feedbacks, are among the possible reasons for the Arctic amplification. In this paper, we highlight and summarize some of our research related to assessing the response of climate in the Arctic to global warming and vice versa. Since extratropical transient eddies dominate the meridional transport of sensible and latent heat from low to high latitudes, we estimated the effect of climate change on meridional heat transport by means of the β-plane model of baroclinic instability. It has been shown that the heat transport from low and middle latitudes to the Arctic by large scale transient eddies increases by about 9% due to global warming, contributing to the polar amplification—and thereby a decrease in the extent—of the Arctic sea, which, in turn, is an important factor in the formation of the Arctic climate. The main radiative feedback mechanisms affecting the formation of the Arctic climate are also considered and discussed. It was emphasized that the influence of feedbacks depends on a season since the total feedback in the winter season is negative, while in the summer season, it is positive. Thus, further research is required to diminish the uncertainty regarding the character of various feedback mechanisms in the shaping of the Artic climate and, through that, in predicting the extent of Arctic sea ice.

scholarly journals Recent advances in understanding the Arctic climate system state and change from a sea ice perspective: a review

2014 ◽  
Vol 14 (7) ◽  
pp. 10929-10999 ◽  
Author(s):  
R. Döscher ◽  
T. Vihma ◽  
E. Maksimovich
Keyword(s):  
Global Warming ◽  
Sea Ice ◽  
Ice Cover ◽  
Arctic Sea Ice ◽  
Climate System ◽  
Arctic Climate ◽  
The Arctic ◽  
Atlantic Sector ◽  
Sea Ice Decline ◽  
Arctic Sea

Abstract. The Arctic sea ice is the central and essential component of the Arctic climate system. The depletion and areal decline of the Arctic sea ice cover, observed since the 1970's, have accelerated after the millennium shift. While a relationship to global warming is evident and is underpinned statistically, the mechanisms connected to the sea ice reduction are to be explored in detail. Sea ice erodes both from the top and from the bottom. Atmosphere, sea ice and ocean processes interact in non-linear ways on various scales. Feedback mechanisms lead to an Arctic amplification of the global warming system. The amplification is both supported by the ice depletion and is at the same time accelerating the ice reduction. Knowledge of the mechanisms connected to the sea ice decline has grown during the 1990's and has deepened when the acceleration became clear in the early 2000's. Record summer sea ice extents in 2002, 2005, 2007 and 2012 provided additional information on the mechanisms. This article reviews recent progress in understanding of the sea ice decline. Processes are revisited from an atmospheric, ocean and sea ice perspective. There is strong evidence for decisive atmospheric changes being the major driver of sea ice change. Feedbacks due to reduced ice concentration, surface albedo and thickness allow for additional local atmosphere and ocean influences and self-supporting feedbacks. Large scale ocean influences on the Arctic Ocean hydrology and circulation are highly evident. Northward heat fluxes in the ocean are clearly impacting the ice margins, especially in the Atlantic sector of the Arctic. Only little indication exists for a direct decisive influence of the warming ocean on the overall sea ice cover, due to an isolating layer of cold and fresh water underneath the sea ice.

scholarly journals Large-Scale Atmospheric Warming in Winter and the Arctic Sea Ice Retreat

2016 ◽  
Vol 29 (8) ◽  
pp. 2869-2888 ◽  
Author(s):  
Srdjan Dobricic ◽  
Elisabetta Vignati ◽  
Simone Russo
Keyword(s):  
Sea Ice ◽  
Surface Temperature ◽  
Large Scale ◽  
Southern Oscillation ◽  
Ice Cover ◽  
Arctic Sea Ice ◽  
The Arctic ◽  
Ice Melting ◽  
Near Surface ◽  
Arctic Sea

Abstract The ongoing shrinkage of the Arctic sea ice cover is likely linked to the global temperature rise, the pronounced warming in the Arctic, and possibly weather anomalies in the midlatitudes. By evaluating independent components of global atmospheric energy anomalies in winters from 1980 to 2015, the study finds the link between the sea ice melting in the Arctic and the combination of only three well-known atmospheric oscillation patterns approximating observed spatial variations of near-surface temperature trends in winter. The three patterns are the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO), Scandinavian blocking (SB), and El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO). The first two are directly related to the ongoing sea ice cover shrinkage in the Barents Sea and the hemispheric increase of near-surface temperature. By independent dynamical processes they connect the sea ice melting and related atmospheric perturbations in the Arctic either with the negative phase of the NAO or the negative trend of atmospheric temperatures over the tropical Pacific. The study further shows that the ongoing sea ice melting may often imply the formation of large-scale circulation patterns bringing the recent trend of colder winters in densely populated areas like Europe and North America.

scholarly journals Near Real Time Arctic sea ice thickness and volume from CryoSat-2

2016 ◽  
Author(s):  
R. L. Tilling ◽  
A. Ridout ◽  
A. Shepherd
Keyword(s):  
Sea Ice ◽  
Real Time ◽  
Arctic Sea Ice ◽  
Arctic Climate ◽  
The Arctic ◽  
Ice Thickness ◽  
Satellite Orbits ◽  
Sea Ice Thickness ◽  
Arctic Sea ◽  
Arctic Sea Ice Thickness

Abstract. Timely observations of sea ice thickness help us to understand Arctic climate, and can support maritime activities in the Polar Regions. Although it is possible to calculate Arctic sea ice thickness using measurements acquired by CryoSat-2, the latency of the final release dataset is typically one month, due to the time required to determine precise satellite orbits. We use a new fast delivery CryoSat-2 dataset based on preliminary orbits to compute Arctic sea ice thickness in near real time (NRT), and analyse this data for one sea ice growth season from October 2014 to April 2015. We show that this NRT sea ice thickness product is of comparable accuracy to that produced using the final release CryoSat-2 data, with an average thickness difference of 5 cm, demonstrating that the satellite orbit is not a critical factor in determining sea ice freeboard. In addition, the CryoSat-2 fast delivery product also provides measurements of Arctic sea ice thickness within three days of acquisition by the satellite, and a measurement is delivered, on average, within 10, 7 and 6 km of each location in the Arctic every 2, 14 and 28 days respectively. The CryoSat-2 NRT sea ice thickness dataset provides an additional constraint for seasonal predictions of Arctic climate change, and will allow industries such as tourism and transport to navigate the polar oceans with safety and care.

scholarly journals Arctic Sea Ice’s Amplification as a Complement to Anthropogenic Global Warming

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Marco Morando
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Global Warming ◽  
Sea Ice ◽  
Arctic Sea Ice ◽  
The Arctic ◽  
Future Climate Change ◽  
Number Count ◽  
Anthropogenic Global Warming ◽  
Arctic Sea ◽  
Scientific Subject

Abstract Climate Change is a widely debated scientific subject and Anthropogenic Global Warming is its main cause. Nevertheless, several authors have indicated solar activity and Atlantic Multi-decadal Oscillation variations may also influence Climate Change. This article considers the amplification of solar radiation’s and Atlantic Multi-decadal Oscillation’s variations, via sea ice cover albedo feedbacks in the Arctic regions, providing a conceptual advance in the application of Arctic Amplification for modelling historical climate change. A 1-dimensional physical model, using sunspot number count and Atlantic Multi-decadal Oscillation index as inputs, can simulate the average global temperature’s anomaly and the Arctic Sea Ice Extension for the past eight centuries. This model represents an innovative progress in understanding how existing studies on Arctic sea ice’s albedo feedbacks can help complementing the Anthropogenic Global Warming models, thus helping to define more precise models for future climate change.

Large-scale Arctic sea ice motion from Sentinel-1 and the RADARSAT Constellation Mission

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Stephen Howell ◽  
Mike Brady ◽  
Alexander Komarov
Keyword(s):  
Sea Ice ◽  
Spatial Resolution ◽  
Temporal Resolution ◽  
Large Scale ◽  
Arctic Sea Ice ◽  
The Arctic ◽  
High Temporal Resolution ◽  
Sar Images ◽  
Sea Ice Extent ◽  
Arctic Sea

<p>As the Arctic’s sea ice extent continues to decline, remote sensing observations are becoming even more vital for the monitoring and understanding of this process.  Recently, the sea ice community has entered a new era of synthetic aperture radar (SAR) satellites operating at C-band with the launch of Sentinel-1A in 2014, Sentinel-1B in 2016 and the RADARSAT Constellation Mission (RCM) in 2019. These missions represent a collection of 5 spaceborne SAR sensors that together can routinely cover Arctic sea ice with a high spatial resolution (20-90 m) but also with a high temporal resolution (1-7 days) typically associated with passive microwave sensors. Here, we used ~28,000 SAR image pairs from Sentinel-1AB together with ~15,000 SAR images pairs from RCM to generate high spatiotemporal large-scale sea ice motion products across the pan-Arctic domain for 2020. The combined Sentinel-1AB and RCM sea ice motion product provides almost complete 7-day coverage over the entire pan-Arctic domain that also includes the pole-hole. Compared to the National Snow and Ice Data Center (NSIDC) Polar Pathfinder and Ocean and Sea Ice-Satellite Application Facility (OSI-SAF) sea ice motion products, ice speed was found to be faster with the Senintel-1AB and RCM product which is attributed to the higher spatial resolution of SAR imagery. More sea ice motion vectors were detected from the Sentinel-1AB and RCM product in during the summer months and within the narrow channels and inlets compared to the NSIDC Polar Pathfinder and OSI-SAF sea ice motion products. Overall, our results demonstrate that sea ice geophysical variables across the pan-Arctic domain can now be retrieved from multi-sensor SAR images at both high spatial and temporal resolution.</p>

Linkage of Arctic Sea Ice and Energy Transport

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Ines Höschel ◽  
Dörthe Handorf ◽  
Christoph Jacobi ◽  
Johannes Quaas
Keyword(s):  
Sea Ice ◽  
Large Scale ◽  
Energy Transport ◽  
Arctic Sea Ice ◽  
The Arctic ◽  
Moist Static Energy ◽  
Large Scale Circulation ◽  
Arctic Sea ◽  
Rossby Wave Propagation ◽  
Static Energy

<p>The loss of Arctic sea ice as a consequence of global warming is changing the forcing of the atmospheric large-scale circulation.  Areas not covered with sea ice anymore may act as an additional heat source.  Associated changes in Rossby wave propagation can initiate tropospheric and stratospheric pathways of Arctic - Mid-latitude linkages.  These pathways have the potential to impact on the large-scale energy transport into the Arctic.  On the other hand, studies show that the large-scale circulation contributes to Arctic warming by poleward transport of moist static energy. This presentation shows results from research within the Transregional Collaborative Research Center “ArctiC Amplification: Climate Relevant Atmospheric and SurfaCe Processes, and Feedback Mechanisms (AC)3” funded by the Deutsche Forschungsgemeinschaft.  Using the ERA interim and ERA5 reanalyses the meridional moist static energy transport during high ice and low ice periods is compared.  The investigation discriminates between contributions from planetary and synoptic scale.  Special emphasis is put on the seasonality of the modulations of the large-scale energy transport.</p>

Variability of Arctic Sea Ice Based on Quantile Regression and the Teleconnection with Large-Scale Climate Patterns

2020 ◽  
Vol 33 (10) ◽  
pp. 4009-4025
Author(s):  
Shuyu Zhang ◽  
Thian Yew Gan ◽  
Andrew B. G. Bush
Keyword(s):  
Sea Ice ◽  
Quantile Regression ◽  
Large Scale ◽  
Southern Oscillation ◽  
Arctic Sea Ice ◽  
The Arctic ◽  
Climate Indices ◽  
The Pacific ◽  
Arctic Sea ◽  
Climate Patterns

AbstractUnder global warming, Arctic sea ice has declined significantly in recent decades, with years of extremely low sea ice occurring more frequently. Recent studies suggest that teleconnections with large-scale climate patterns could induce the observed extreme sea ice loss. In this study, a probabilistic analysis of Arctic sea ice was conducted using quantile regression analysis with covariates, including time and climate indices. From temporal trends at quantile levels from 0.01 to 0.99, Arctic sea ice shows statistically significant decreases over all quantile levels, although of different magnitudes at different quantiles. At the representative extreme quantile levels of the 5th and 95th percentiles, the Arctic Oscillation (AO), the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO), and the Pacific–North American pattern (PNA) have more significant influence on Arctic sea ice than El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO), the Pacific decadal oscillation (PDO), and the Atlantic multidecadal oscillation (AMO). Positive AO as well as positive NAO contribute to low winter sea ice, and a positive PNA contributes to low summer Arctic sea ice. If, in addition to these conditions, there is concurrently positive AMO and PDO, the sea ice decrease is amplified. Teleconnections between Arctic sea ice and the climate patterns were demonstrated through a composite analysis of the climate variables. The anomalously strong anticyclonic circulation during the years of positive AO, NAO, and PNA promotes more sea ice export through Fram Strait, resulting in excessive sea ice loss. The probabilistic analyses of the teleconnections between the Arctic sea ice and climate patterns confirm the crucial role that the climate patterns and their combinations play in overall sea ice reduction, but particularly for the low and high quantiles of sea ice concentration.

scholarly journals The Impact of Regional Arctic Sea Ice Loss on Atmospheric Circulation and the NAO

2016 ◽  
Vol 29 (2) ◽  
pp. 889-902 ◽  
Author(s):  
Rasmus A. Pedersen ◽  
Ivana Cvijanovic ◽  
Peter L. Langen ◽  
Bo M. Vinther
Keyword(s):  
Sea Ice ◽  
Atmospheric Circulation ◽  
General Circulation ◽  
Ice Cover ◽  
Arctic Sea Ice ◽  
The Arctic ◽  
Near Surface ◽  
Arctic Sea ◽  
The Impact ◽  
Sea Ice Reduction

Abstract Reduction of the Arctic sea ice cover can affect the atmospheric circulation and thus impact the climate beyond the Arctic. The atmospheric response may, however, vary with the geographical location of sea ice loss. The atmospheric sensitivity to the location of sea ice loss is studied using a general circulation model in a configuration that allows combination of a prescribed sea ice cover and an active mixed layer ocean. This hybrid setup makes it possible to simulate the isolated impact of sea ice loss and provides a more complete response compared to experiments with fixed sea surface temperatures. Three investigated sea ice scenarios with ice loss in different regions all exhibit substantial near-surface warming, which peaks over the area of ice loss. The maximum warming is found during winter, delayed compared to the maximum sea ice reduction. The wintertime response of the midlatitude atmospheric circulation shows a nonuniform sensitivity to the location of sea ice reduction. While all three scenarios exhibit decreased zonal winds related to high-latitude geopotential height increases, the magnitudes and locations of the anomalies vary between the simulations. Investigation of the North Atlantic Oscillation reveals a high sensitivity to the location of the ice loss. The northern center of action exhibits clear shifts in response to the different sea ice reductions. Sea ice loss in the Atlantic and Pacific sectors of the Arctic cause westward and eastward shifts, respectively.

scholarly journals Mechanisms for low-frequency variability of summer Arctic sea ice extent

2015 ◽  
Vol 112 (15) ◽  
pp. 4570-4575 ◽  
Author(s):  
Rong Zhang
Keyword(s):  
Sea Ice ◽  
Heat Transport ◽  
Low Frequency ◽  
Arctic Sea Ice ◽  
The Arctic ◽  
Sea Ice Extent ◽  
Low Frequency Variability ◽  
Sea Ice Decline ◽  
Arctic Sea ◽  
Arctic Sea Ice Extent

Satellite observations reveal a substantial decline in September Arctic sea ice extent since 1979, which has played a leading role in the observed recent Arctic surface warming and has often been attributed, in large part, to the increase in greenhouse gases. However, the most rapid decline occurred during the recent global warming hiatus period. Previous studies are often focused on a single mechanism for changes and variations of summer Arctic sea ice extent, and many are based on short observational records. The key players for summer Arctic sea ice extent variability at multidecadal/centennial time scales and their contributions to the observed summer Arctic sea ice decline are not well understood. Here a multiple regression model is developed for the first time, to the author’s knowledge, to provide a framework to quantify the contributions of three key predictors (Atlantic/Pacific heat transport into the Arctic, and Arctic Dipole) to the internal low-frequency variability of Summer Arctic sea ice extent, using a 3,600-y-long control climate model simulation. The results suggest that changes in these key predictors could have contributed substantially to the observed summer Arctic sea ice decline. If the ocean heat transport into the Arctic were to weaken in the near future due to internal variability, there might be a hiatus in the decline of September Arctic sea ice. The modeling results also suggest that at multidecadal/centennial time scales, variations in the atmosphere heat transport across the Arctic Circle are forced by anticorrelated variations in the Atlantic heat transport into the Arctic.

Arctic Sea Ice Reemergence: The Role of Large-Scale Oceanic and Atmospheric Variability*

2015 ◽  
Vol 28 (14) ◽  
pp. 5477-5509 ◽  
Author(s):  
Mitchell Bushuk ◽  
Dimitrios Giannakis ◽  
Andrew J. Majda
Keyword(s):  
Sea Ice ◽  
Large Scale ◽  
Climate Model ◽  
Surface Air Temperature ◽  
Arctic Sea Ice ◽  
The Arctic ◽  
Sea Ice Concentration ◽  
Arctic Sea ◽  
Spring Sea Ice ◽  
Phase Relationships

Abstract Arctic sea ice reemergence is a phenomenon in which spring sea ice anomalies are positively correlated with fall anomalies, despite a loss of correlation over the intervening summer months. This work employs a novel data analysis algorithm for high-dimensional multivariate datasets, coupled nonlinear Laplacian spectral analysis (NLSA), to investigate the regional and temporal aspects of this reemergence phenomenon. Coupled NLSA modes of variability of sea ice concentration (SIC), sea surface temperature (SST), and sea level pressure (SLP) are studied in the Arctic sector of a comprehensive climate model and in observations. It is found that low-dimensional families of NLSA modes are able to efficiently reproduce the prominent lagged correlation features of the raw sea ice data. In both the model and observations, these families provide an SST–sea ice reemergence mechanism, in which melt season (spring) sea ice anomalies are imprinted as SST anomalies and stored over the summer months, allowing for sea ice anomalies of the same sign to reappear in the growth season (fall). The ice anomalies of each family exhibit clear phase relationships between the Barents–Kara Seas, the Labrador Sea, and the Bering Sea, three regions that compose the majority of Arctic sea ice variability. These regional phase relationships in sea ice have a natural explanation via the SLP patterns of each family, which closely resemble the Arctic Oscillation and the Arctic dipole anomaly. These SLP patterns, along with their associated geostrophic winds and surface air temperature advection, provide a large-scale teleconnection between different regions of sea ice variability. Moreover, the SLP patterns suggest another plausible ice reemergence mechanism, via their winter-to-winter regime persistence.

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