scholarly journals Predictions of Crowdfunding Campaign Success: The Influence of First Impressions on Accuracy and Positivity

2020 ◽  
Vol 13 (12) ◽  
pp. 331
Author(s):  
Etienne Schraven ◽  
Elco van Burg ◽  
Marco van Gelderen ◽  
Enno Masurel
Keyword(s):  
Cognitive Processes ◽  
Prediction Accuracy ◽  
Experimental Approach ◽  
First Impressions ◽  
Limited Time ◽  
Unlimited Time ◽  
Time Availability ◽  
One Step

Crowdfunding has quickly gained popularity in recent years, providing an additional way for entrepreneurial individuals and organizations (creators) to attract funds for their projects. Scholars have been interested in predicting the success of crowdfunding campaigns, by relating campaign characteristics to the actual success of these campaigns. We take one step back by studying the cognitive processes of the crowd. This paper uses an experimental approach to establish whether participants’ predictions on the success of crowdfunding campaigns based on first impressions are as positive and as accurate as those derived from more thorough analyses. We employ a two-study replication design, in which individuals estimate the success of crowdfunding campaigns in two conditions: with limited time and with unlimited time. The results show that prediction accuracy in both conditions is equal, yet shorter time availability results in assessments that are more negative. We discuss implications for creators and for funders.

scholarly journals A Daily Process Analysis of Intentions and Physical Activity in College Students

2013 ◽  
Vol 35 (5) ◽  
pp. 493-502 ◽  
Author(s):  
David E. Conroy ◽  
Steriani Elavsky ◽  
Shawna E. Doerksen ◽  
Jaclyn P. Maher
Keyword(s):  
Physical Activity ◽  
College Students ◽  
Process Analysis ◽  
Vigorous Physical Activity ◽  
Limited Time ◽  
Daily Lives ◽  
People’S Daily ◽  
Time Availability ◽  
People's Daily ◽  
Daily Changes

Social-cognitive theories, such as the theory of planned behavior, posit intentions as proximal influences on physical activity (PA). This paper extends those theories by examining within-person variation in intentions and moderate-to-vigorous physical activity (MVPA) as a function of the unfolding constraints in people’s daily lives (e.g., perceived time availability, fatigue, soreness, weather, overeating). College students (N = 63) completed a 14-day diary study over the Internet that rated daily motivation, contextual constraints, and MVPA. Key findings from multilevel analyses were that (1) between-person differences represented 46% and 33% of the variability in daily MVPA intentions and behavior, respectively; (2) attitudes, injunctive norms, self-efficacy, perceptions of limited time availability, and weekend status predicted daily changes in intention strength; and (3) daily changes in intentions, perceptions of limited time availability, and weekend status predicted day-to-day changes in MVPA. Embedding future motivation and PA research in the context of people’s daily lives will advance understanding of individual PA change processes.

scholarly journals Selective Influence and Sequential Operations: A Research Strategy for Visual Search

2019 ◽  
Author(s):  
Kaleb A. Lowe ◽  
Thomas R. Reppert ◽  
Jeffrey D Schall
Keyword(s):  
Visual Search ◽  
Cognitive Processes ◽  
Experimental Approach ◽  
Research Strategy ◽  
Response Mapping ◽  
Stimulus Response ◽  
Singleton Distractor ◽  
Visual Encoding ◽  
Processing Architectures ◽  
Selective Influence

ABSTRACTWe introduce conceptually and empirically a powerful but underutilized experimental approach to dissect the cognitive processes supporting performance of a visual search task with factorial manipulations of singleton-distractor identifiability and stimulus-response cue discriminability. We show that systems factorial technology can distinguish processing architectures from the performance of macaque monkeys. This demonstration offers new opportunities to distinguish neural mechanisms through selective manipulation of visual encoding, search selection, rule encoding, and stimulus-response mapping.

scholarly journals Gilt Groupe: Desperately Seeking a New Business Model How Discount Luxury Sites Struggle in the Economic Recovery Era

2021 ◽  
Vol 7 (1) ◽  
pp. 17-22
Author(s):  
Nikolai Ostapenko
Keyword(s):  
United States ◽  
Business Model ◽  
The United States ◽  
Economic Recovery ◽  
Limited Time ◽  
Luxury Goods ◽  
Online Platform ◽  
New Business ◽  
Time Availability

Gilt Groupe is a favorite website for luxury bargain hunters spending their lunch breaks with style. The company, founded in 2007, already has a well-established reputation and is expected to generate close to $1 billion in annual sales by the end of 2012. Its online platform uses the “flash sales” method, offering limited-time availability of high fashion, travel, home décor, and culinary bargains to its members. Membership, originally by invitation only, is now open to all. The idea of moving “sample sales” online was first realized on a European website, Vente-Privee.com, which now has more than 13 million customers. Following Gilt’s introduction in the United States, flash sales skyrocketed and led to the launching of many new sites, which have proved popular both with consumers seeking impressive discounts on uber-luxury goods, and with exclusive brands wanting to unload their unsold stock quickly

Relationship between Study Habits and Performance on an Intelligence Test with Limited and Unlimited Time

1984 ◽  
Vol 54 (2) ◽  
pp. 367-371 ◽  
Author(s):  
Despina Davou ◽  
Stuart J. McKelvie
Keyword(s):  
Study Habits ◽  
Intelligence Test ◽  
Limited Time ◽  
Unlimited Time ◽  
Alternate Forms ◽  
And Performance ◽  
Better Than ◽  
Personnel Test

Two groups of undergraduates, identified as high scorers ( n = 24) or low scorers ( n = 23) on the Study Habits section of the Survey of Study Habits and Attitudes, were administered alternate forms of the Wonderlic Personnel Test on two occasions, one with limited and one with unlimited time. Since high-scoring subjects performed better than low scorers on both timed forms but more so with limited time, and since they attempted more questions (limited) and were faster (unlimited), it was concluded that the superiority of students with high scores on study habits is based on both power and speed.

scholarly journals Improving Learning Outcomes: Unlimited vs. Limited Attempts and Time for Supplemental Interactive Online Learning Activities

2019 ◽  
Vol 8 (4) ◽  
pp. 36
Author(s):  
Lydia M. MacKenzie
Keyword(s):  
Online Learning ◽  
Instructional Strategies ◽  
Learning Outcomes ◽  
Online Courses ◽  
Formative Assessments ◽  
Limited Time ◽  
Online Activity ◽  
Unlimited Time ◽  
Case Discussions ◽  
Exam Scores

Research indicates the use of interactive online learning (IOL) instructional strategies such as multiple choice, "drag and drop" matching exercises, and case discussions, in online courses enhances learning and results in better learning outcomes. While some instructors might use interactive resources for regular assessments that only allow for one attempt, this experiment examines whether limiting the attempts and the time to complete IOL instructional strategies significantly improves learning outcomes as measured by performance scores on two required exams. The author posit that students who have limited attempts (2) and limited time (20 minutes) will in fact read the chapters before attempting to complete the interactive online activities, thus increasing the correlation between the interactive online activity scores and exam scores. Unlimited attempts and unlimited time provide students with the opportunity to search the textbook for the answers without reading the assigned chapters.As anticipated, the experimental groups with limited attempts and limited time on the IOL activities did demonstrate a statistically significant relationship to combined exam scores. The findings indicate that limited attempts and limited time on formative assessments correlated with exam scores while those formative assessments without constraints did not.

An Experimental Study of the Influence of Limited Time Horizon on Positivity Effects among Young Adults Using Eye-Tracking

2014 ◽  
Vol 115 (3) ◽  
pp. 813-827 ◽  
Author(s):  
Marzena Cypryańska ◽  
Izabela Krejtz ◽  
Aleksandra JaskółOwska ◽  
Alicja Kulawik ◽  
Aleksandra Żukowska ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Older Adults ◽  
Young Adults ◽  
Dependent Measure ◽  
Limited Time ◽  
Experimental Conditions ◽  
Younger Adults ◽  
Positivity Effect ◽  
Time Horizons ◽  
Focus Condition ◽  
Unlimited Time

Compared to younger adults, older adults attend more to positive stimuli, a positivity effect. Older adults have limited time horizons, and they focus on maintaining positive affect, whereas younger adults have unlimited time horizons, and they focus on acquiring knowledge and developing skills. Time horizons were manipulated by asking participants (66 young adults, M age = 20.5 yr., SD = 1.2) to think that their lives would end in three years. Some participants focused on what they would do in these three years (life focus), whereas others focused on the fact that they would die in three years (death focus). Attentional biases to facial expressions of happiness, sadness, fear, anger, and disgust were measured. Participants viewed 20 slides including pairings of a happy face with each of the negative emotions. The dependent measure was the relative attention paid to the faces on each slide. Participants in the experimental conditions exhibited a positivity effect compared to participants in the control condition, although some results suggested that this effect was weaker in the death focus condition than in the life focus condition.

Research on Optimization of Preventive Maintenance Interval Decision for Vessel Equipment

2013 ◽  
Vol 850-851 ◽  
pp. 981-985
Author(s):  
Bo Yang ◽  
Ya Chen
Keyword(s):  
Preventive Maintenance ◽  
Engine Fuel ◽  
Limited Time ◽  
Multi Objective Optimization ◽  
Maintenance Strategies ◽  
Decision Making Problem ◽  
Unlimited Time ◽  
Multi Attribute Decision Making ◽  
Single Objective

Optimization of preventive maintenance interval decision for vessel equipment is a multi-attribute decision making problem. But the current studies on the preventive maintenance strategies are mostly with single-objective and based on the assumptions that equipments operating for unlimited time. In this paper, a multi-objective optimization model in limited time is established basing on the existing studies. And the case study of a certain type diesel engine fuel system is used to illustrate the methodology.

scholarly journals Time Series Analysis of Hemorrhagic Fever with Renal Syndrome in Mainland China by using XGBoost Forecasting Model

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Cai-Xia Lv ◽  
Shu-Yi An ◽  
Bao-Jun Qiao ◽  
Wei Wu
Keyword(s):  
Time Series ◽  
Prediction Accuracy ◽  
Prediction Models ◽  
Arima Model ◽  
Mainland China ◽  
Hemorrhagic Fever ◽  
Public Attention ◽  
Incidence Data ◽  
One Step ◽  
The One

Abstract Background: Hemorrhagic fever with renal syndrome is still attracting public attention because of its outbreak in various cities in China. It is one of the effective preventive measures to predict the peak incidence rate in the future based on the past incidence data, and implement targeted actions. In this study, we propose a multi-step prediction strategy based on XGBoost for hemorrhagic fever with renal syndrome as an extension of the one-step prediction model. Moreover, the fitting and prediction accuracy of XGBoost model will be compared with seasonal ARIMA model by different evaluation indicators. Methods: We collected monthly hemorrhagic fever with renal syndrome incidence data from 2004 to 2018 in mainland China .The part from 2004 to 2017 was divided as training set to establish the seasonal ARIMA model and XGBoost model. The rest 2018 data was used to test the prediction outcomes. In multi-step forecasting XGBoost model, one-hot encoding was used to handle seasonal features. Furthermore, series of evaluation index(MAE,MPE,MAPE,RMSE,MASE, ACF1, Theil’s U) were performed to evaluate the accuracy of multi-step forecast XGBoost model.Results: There were totally 200237 HFRS cases in China from 2004 to 2018. A slightly long-term downward trend and obvious bimodal peak seasonal character were identified in the original time series. According to the minimum CAIC value, the optimal ARIMA (3,1,0) × (1,1,0)12 model is selected. the ME , MAE, MPE, MAPE, MASE of XGBoost were higher than ARIMA model in the fitting part, whereas the RMSE of XGBoost was lower. The evaluation indicators (MAE, MPE, MAPE, RMSE , MASE) of the one-step prediction and multi-step prediction XGBoost model are all notably lower than the ARIMA model in prediction performance. Conclusions: The multi-step prediction XGBoost model showed a much better prediction accuracy and model stability in HFRS disease . In general, compared to the seasonal ARIMA model, the XGBoost model performs better when predicting complicated and non-linear data like Hemorrhagic fever with renal syndrome. Additionally Multi-step prediction models are more practical than one-step prediction in forecasting infectious diseases.

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