scholarly journals Relative Risk Prediction of Norovirus Incidence under Climate Change in Korea

Life ◽  
2021 ◽  
Vol 11 (12) ◽  
pp. 1332
Author(s):  
Tae-Kyoung Kim ◽  
Jayeong Paek ◽  
Hwang-Yong Kim ◽  
Ilsu Choi
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Logistic Regression ◽  
Relative Risk ◽  
Probabilistic Analysis ◽  
Risk Index ◽  
Food Poisoning ◽  
High Accuracy ◽  
Rcp Scenarios ◽  
B Spline

As incidences of food poisoning, especially norovirus-induced diarrhea, are associated with climate change, there is a need for an approach that can be used to predict the risks of such illnesses with high accuracy. In this paper, we predict the winter norovirus incidence rate in Korea compared to that of other diarrhea-causing viruses using a model based on B-spline added to logistic regression to estimate the long-term pattern of illness. We also develop a risk index based on the estimated probability of occurrence. Our probabilistic analysis shows that the risk of norovirus-related food poisoning in winter will remain stable or increase in Korea based on various Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP) scenarios. Our approach can be used to obtain an overview of the changes occurring in regional and seasonal norovirus patterns that can help assist in making appropriate policy decisions.

scholarly journals Exploring the Evolution of Drought Characteristics in Balochistan, Pakistan

2020 ◽  
Vol 10 (3) ◽  
pp. 913 ◽  
Author(s):  
Shoaib Jamro ◽  
Falak Naz Channa ◽  
Ghulam Hussain Dars ◽  
Kamran Ansari ◽  
Nir Y. Krakauer
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Drought Index ◽  
Risk Index ◽  
Trend Test ◽  
Standardized Precipitation Evapotranspiration Index ◽  
Long Duration ◽  
Tree Edge ◽  
Edge Removal ◽  
The 1960S

In the wake of a rapidly changing climate, droughts have intensified, in both duration and severity, across the globe. The Germanwatch long-term Climate Risk Index ranks Pakistan among the top 10 countries most affected by the adverse effects of climate change. Within Pakistan, the province of Balochistan is among the most vulnerable regions due to recurring prolonged droughts, erratic precipitation patterns, and dependence on agriculture and livestock for survival. This study aims to explore how the characteristics of droughts have evolved in the region from 1902–2015 using 3-month and 12-month timescales of a popular drought index, the Standardized Precipitation Evapotranspiration Index (SPEI). The region was divided into six zones using Spatial “K”luster Analysis using Tree Edge Removal (SKATER) method, and run theory was applied to characterize droughts in terms of duration, severity, intensity, and peak. The results of the non-parametric Mann–Kendall trend test applied to SPEI indicate prevailing significant negative trends (dryer conditions) in all the zones. Balochistan experienced its most severe droughts in the 1960s and around 2000. The effects of climate change are also evident in the fact that all the long duration droughts occurred after 1960. Moreover, the number of droughts identified by 3-month SPEI showed a significant increase after 1960 for all six zones. The same trend was found in the 12-month SPEI but for only three zones.

Using the IPCC for Communicating Both the Full Extent of the Global Climate Emergency and the Required Response

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Peter Carter
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Market Failure ◽  
Global Climate ◽  
Case Scenario ◽  
Rcp Scenarios ◽  
Worst Case ◽  
Important Message ◽  
Value Judgements ◽  
Global Emissions

<p>Since the IPCC (2018) 1.5°C Report, the climate emergency is widely recognized. Then 2019 COP25 statement by IPCC Chair Dr H. Lee ,referring to the three recent IPCC Special Reports (2018,2019,2019) is crucial emphasizing that global emissions MUST decline by and from 2020. The Summaries for Policy Makers (SPMs) are convincing for communication as all world governments approve them. Though the IPCC assesses climate change, the environmental health emergency called climate change is climate system disruption from atmospheric greenhouse gas pollution. The IPCC assessments can be used to produce risk assessments. IPCC published climate change science reports are invaluable, especially the FAQs. The most important message in the IPCC (2014) AR5 and 1.5°C Report is that global emissions have to decline rapidly from 2020, via market failure corrections, for a 1.5°C and for a 2°C limit. The greatest impact to humanity is on food security, and from the IPCC we describe regional crop impacts and crop model limitations. We elucidate IPCC reports on confidence, carbon budget, net zero, negative emissions, value judgements, and recommendations. We clarify inertias, commitment, risks, and amplifying feedbacks. Long-term data trends, rather than only model projections, can now be relied on. We relate IPCC scenarios to worst-case, business-as-usual and best case. For risk we use the IPCC upper ranges, because long-term projected temperature increases are underestimated as they do not account for amplifying feedbacks or decline of carbon sinks, and are only based on a single median climate sensitivity (3C). Although the IPCC shows that atmospheric CO2 is "forever," IPCC SPM projections are all now only to 2100.  From the IPCC RCP scenarios the world is tracking closest to the worst case scenario (RCP8.5). On this scenario the IPCC 1.5°C Report projects 1.5°C by 2035 and 2°C  by 2047. The greatest risk to the future of humanity and most life is multiple inter-reinforcing amplifying feedbacks that lead to hothouse Earth and on to runaway. The evidence for multiple Arctic feedback emissions and Amazon die-back can be found in the IPCC 2014 5th assessment. This reinforces the imperative requiring immediate and rapid global emissions decline. </p>

Alternative crops for a changing climate in Switzerland

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Malve Heinz ◽  
Olivia Romppainen-Martius ◽  
Annelie Holzkämper
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Nutritional Quality ◽  
Mechanistic Model ◽  
Climatic Suitability ◽  
Rcp Scenarios ◽  
Temperature And Precipitation ◽  
Alternative Crops ◽  
Food Productivity ◽  
Time Periods

<p>Rising temperatures, shifts in precipitation patterns and longer dry periods provoke a need for better adapted crops in Switzerland to maintain agricultural productivity in the long term. The aim of this work was to identify plants with a high climatic suitability in the future. A simple mechanistic model (ecocrop) was applied to determine suitability for different time periods under RCP scenarios 4.5 and 8.5. The model considers temperature and precipitation ranges. From a pool of 600 edible plants, 21 plants were identified that would benefit from progressing climate change in terms of average climatic yield potentials. In addition, these plants were found to have a high nutritional quality and could thus be seen as good candidate crops to expand the portfolio of cultivated crops in Switzerland in efforts to adapt to climate change and maintain or even increase food productivity in a future climate. The potentials of selected crops are discussed in terms of cultivation requirements, spatial suitability, and market potentials.</p>

2018 Nobel Economics Prize: Integrating Climate Change Measures into Sustainable Economic Growth

2018 ◽  
Vol 34 (4) ◽  
Author(s):  
Nguyen Thi Thuc An ◽  
Dau Kieu Ngoc Anh
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Economic Growth ◽  
Endogenous Growth ◽  
Environmental Issues ◽  
Growth Theory ◽  
Endogenous Growth Theory ◽  
Technological Advances ◽  
Academy Of Sciences ◽  
Sustainable Economic Growth

The 2018 Nobel Economics Prize was awarded to two American economists - William D. Nordhaus and Paul M. Romer - who designed methods for better assessing environmental issues and technological advances on growth. This year’s Laureates, Nordhaus was the first person to create an intergrated model to assess interactions between society and nature and Romer laid the foundation for what is now called endogenous growth theory. According to the Swedish Royal Academy of Sciences, these two macroeconomists’ research have helped “significantly broaden the scope of economic analysis by constructing models that explain how the market economy interacts with nature and knowledge” which integrates climate change measures into long-term sustainable economic growth. Keywords Nobel in economics, William D. Nordhaus, Paul M. Romer, climate change, endogenous growth theory, economic growth References [1] Y Vân (2018), “Lý lịch 'khủng' của hai nhà khoa học vừa giành giải Nobel Kinh tế 2018”, Vietnambiz, đăng tải ngày 08/10/2018, https://vietnambiz.vn/ly-lich-khung-cua-hai-nha-khoa-hoc-vua-gianh-giai-nobel-kinh-te-2018-95776.html[2] Jonas O. Bergman, Rich Miller (2018), “Nordhaus, Romer Win Nobel for Thinking on Climate, Innovation”, đăng tải ngày 8/10/2018, https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2018-10-08/nordhaus-romer-win-2018-nobel-prize-in-economic-sciences [3] Antonin Pottier (2018), “Giải Nobel” William Nordhaus có thật sự nghiêm túc?”, Nguyễn Đôn Phước dịch, đăng tải ngày 11/10/2018, http://www.phantichkinhte123.com/2018/10/giai-nobel-william-nordhaus-co-that-su.html[4] Thăng Điệp (2018), “Giải Nobel kinh tế 2018 về tay hai người Mỹ”, đăng tải ngày 8/10/2018, http://vneconomy.vn/giai-nobel-kinh-te-2018-ve-tay-hai-nguoi-my-20181008185809239.htm[5] Lars P. Syll (2018), “Cuối cùng - Paul Romer cũng có được giải thưởng Nobel”, Huỳnh Thiện Quốc Việt dịch, đăng tải ngày 14/10/2018, http://www.phantichkinhte123.com/2018/10/cuoi-cung-paul-romer-cung-co-uoc-giai.html[6] Phương Võ (2018), “Nobel Kinh tế 2018: Chạm tới bài toán khó của thời đại”, đăng tải ngày 9/10/2018, https://nld.com.vn/thoi-su-quoc-te/nobel-kinh-te-2018-cham-toi-bai-toan-kho-cua-thoi-dai-20181008221734228.htm[7] Đông Phong (2018), “Nobel Kinh tế cho giải pháp phát triển bền vững và phúc lợi người dân”, đăng tải ngày 8/10/2018, https://news.zing.vn/nobel-kinh-te-cho-giai-phap-phat-trien-ben-vung-va-phuc-loi-nguoi-dan-post882860.html[8] Thanh Trúc (2018), “Giải Nobel kinh tế 2018: Thay đổi tư duy về biến đổi khí hậu”, https://tusach.thuvienkhoahoc.com/wiki/Gi%E1%BA%A3i_Nobel_kinh_t%E1%BA%BF_2018:_Thay_%C4%91%E1%BB%95i_t%C6%B0_duy_v%E1%BB%81_bi%E1%BA%BFn_%C4%91%E1%BB%95i_kh%C3%AD_h%E1%BA%ADu[9] Cẩm Anh (2018), “Nobel kinh tế 2018: Lời giải cho tăng trưởng kinh tế bền vững”, đăng tải ngày 11/10/2018, http://enternews.vn/nobel-kinh-te-2018-loi-giai-cho-tang-truong-kinh-te-ben-vung-137600.html.

On Climate Change Risks of Long-Term Socio-Economic Development in Russia

2019 ◽  
pp. 79-95
Author(s):  
N.E. Terentiev
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Economic Development ◽  
Technological Innovation ◽  
Global Climate Change ◽  
Global Climate ◽  
Climate Risk ◽  
Climate Change Risks ◽  
Socio Economic Development ◽  
Management Policies

Based on the latest data, paper investigates the dynamics of global climate change and its impact on economic growth in the long-term. The notion of climate risk is considered. The main directions of climate risk management policies are analyzed aimed, first, at reducing anthropogenic greenhouse gas emissions through technological innovation and structural economic shifts; secondly, at adaptation of population, territories and economic complexes to the irreparable effects of climate change. The problem of taking into account the phenomenon of climate change in the state economic policy is put in the context of the most urgent tasks of intensification of long-term socio-economic development and parrying strategic challenges to the development of Russia.

Configurations to Superior Environmental Innovation Strategy: A Both–And Approach

2021 ◽  
pp. 108602662110316
Author(s):  
Tiziana Russo-Spena ◽  
Nadia Di Paola ◽  
Aidan O’Driscoll
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Value Chain ◽  
Critical Role ◽  
Well Being ◽  
Point Of View ◽  
Future Generations ◽  
Innovation Strategy ◽  
Environmental Innovation ◽  
Data Set

An effective climate change action involves the critical role that companies must play in assuring the long-term human and social well-being of future generations. In our study, we offer a more holistic, inclusive, both–and approach to the challenge of environmental innovation (EI) that uses a novel methodology to identify relevant configurations for firms engaging in a superior EI strategy. A conceptual framework is proposed that identifies six sets of driving characteristics of EI and two sets of beneficial outcomes, all inherently tensional. Our analysis utilizes a complementary rather than an oppositional point of view. A data set of 65 companies in the ICT value chain is analyzed via fuzzy-set comparative analysis (fsQCA) and a post-QCA procedure. The results reveal that achieving a superior EI strategy is possible in several scenarios. Specifically, after close examination, two main configuration groups emerge, referred to as technological environmental innovators and organizational environmental innovators.

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