scholarly journals Debt-by-Price Ratio, End-of-Year Economic Growth, and Long-Term Prediction of Stock Returns

Mathematics ◽  
2021 ◽  
Vol 9 (13) ◽  
pp. 1550
Author(s):  
Parastoo Mousavi
Keyword(s):  
Economic Growth ◽  
Stock Returns ◽  
Government Debt ◽  
Nonparametric Model ◽  
Price Ratio ◽  
Role Of Government ◽  
Predictive Variables ◽  
Wide Range ◽  
Significant Difference

With the prominent role of government debt in economic growth in recent decades, one would expect that government debt alongside economic growth to be a risk factor priced in the time series of stock returns. In this paper, this idea is investigated by applying a nonparametric model, namely, a local-linear kernel smoother with the aim of forecasting long-term stock returns where the model and smoothing parameters are chosen by cross-validation. While a wide range of predictive variables are examined, we find that our newly introduced debt-by-price ratio and the third to fourth quarter economic growth are robust predictors of stock returns, beating the well-known predictive variables in the literature by a significant difference. The combination of these two covariates can explain almost 30% variation of stock returns at a one-year horizon. This is very crucial considering the difficulty in capturing even a small proportion of movements in stock returns.

scholarly journals Government Stimulus Policy Effects to Foster Indonesia's Economic Growth: Evidence from Seventeen Years' Experience

2021 ◽  
Vol 10 (1) ◽  
pp. 63-76
Author(s):  
Agus Sriyanto ◽  
Sri Murwani ◽  
Eleonora Sofilda
Keyword(s):  
Economic Growth ◽  
Government Spending ◽  
Government Expenditure ◽  
Government Debt ◽  
Influential Factor ◽  
Bounds Testing ◽  
Policy Effects ◽  
Stimulus Effects ◽  
Positive Effect

We study the budget stimulus effects and government spending to help foster the recovery of Indonesia's current economic growth that was hit by the monetary crisis 1997 and 2008. Using government spending allocation policies through capital expenditures, infrastructure expenditures, financing through government debt, private debts, and increased productivity through export and import activities. This research provides to proves the extent to which macroeconomic variables could promote Indonesia's economic growth due to the crisis—using quantitative analysis of time series in the analysis of cointegration autoregressive distribution lag and bounds testing cointegration starting from 2001 Q4 to 2018q4 data. We can prove that in the short term, the most influential factor in economic growth is the first lag of the GDP growth itself; The first lag of exports, and the first lag of government spending and imports. However, some factors still negatively affect corruption control, government effectiveness, and government debt. While in the long term, government expenditure and imports still have a positive effect, but corruption control is still hurt GDP.JEL Classification: G18, O47How to Cite:Sriyanto, A., Murwani, S., & Sofilda, E. (2021). Government Stimulus Policy Effects to Foster Indonesia's Economic Growth: Evidence from Seventeen Years' Experience. Signifikan: Jurnal Ilmu Ekonomi, 10(1), 63-76. https://doi.org/10.15408/sjie.v10i1.15480.

scholarly journals Conditional Variance Forecasts for Long-Term Stock Returns

Risks ◽  
2019 ◽  
Vol 7 (4) ◽  
pp. 113 ◽  
Author(s):  
Enno Mammen ◽  
Jens Perch Nielsen ◽  
Michael Scholz ◽  
Stefan Sperlich
Keyword(s):  
Stock Returns ◽  
Conditional Variance ◽  
Price Ratio ◽  
Prediction Errors ◽  
Step Procedure ◽  
Short And Long Term ◽  
Smoothing Parameters ◽  
One Year ◽  
The One

In this paper, we apply machine learning to forecast the conditional variance of long-term stock returns measured in excess of different benchmarks, considering the short- and long-term interest rate, the earnings-by-price ratio, and the inflation rate. In particular, we apply in a two-step procedure a fully nonparametric local-linear smoother and choose the set of covariates as well as the smoothing parameters via cross-validation. We find that volatility forecastability is much less important at longer horizons regardless of the chosen model and that the homoscedastic historical average of the squared return prediction errors gives an adequate approximation of the unobserved realised conditional variance for both the one-year and five-year horizon.

Demographic Extent and Measurement of Financial Inclusion in Jammu Division

2015 ◽  
Vol 4 (3and4) ◽  
Author(s):  
Preeti Salathia ◽  
Neetu Andotra
Keyword(s):  
Economic Growth ◽  
Marital Status ◽  
Demographic Variables ◽  
Financial Inclusion ◽  
Primary Data ◽  
Grameen Bank ◽  
Significant Difference ◽  
National Bank ◽  
Global Agenda

The aim of this paper is to examine the demographic extent and measure the perceptual gap among the beneficiaries having different age, caste, religion, qualification, income, gender, and marital status regarding nature of financial inclusion in Jammu division. It is the fact that financial inclusion has emerged as an important topic on the global agenda for sustainable long-term economic growth of all the sections of the society. The study is based upon the primary data obtained from the beneficiaries of four banks namely, Jammu & Kashmir Bank (JKB), Jammu & Kashmir Grameen Bank (JKGB), State Bank of India (SBI), and Punjab National Bank (PNB) belonging to villages of five districts namely, Jammu, Samba, Kathua, Reasi, and Udhampur of Jammu division of J&K state through judgement sampling. A schedule was framed containing items of demographics and statements measuring financial inclusion based upon five point Likert scale. The findings indicate that on the demographic variables i.e., age, caste, gender & marital status, there is no significant difference exists regarding nature of financial inclusion, whereas on other demographic variables such as, religion, qualification & income nature of financial inclusion differs.

scholarly journals Intestinal absorption of linoleic acid in experimental renal failure

1991 ◽  
Vol 66 (3) ◽  
pp. 467-477
Author(s):  
M. V. Pahl ◽  
A. Barbari ◽  
N. D. Vaziri ◽  
D. Hollander ◽  
M. Yazdani ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Renal Failure ◽  
Linoleic Acid ◽  
Water Layer ◽  
Short Term ◽  
Unstirred Water Layer ◽  
Wide Range ◽  
Significant Difference

Linoleic acid (LA) transport in rats with experimental short-term and long-term renal failure (RF) was compared with that of sham-operated normal animals on liberal food intake and pair-fed animals. The perfusions in vivo and incubations in vitro were conducted using a micellar solution containing a wide range of LA concentrations. Both absorption in vivo and uptake in vitro of LA were significantly reduced in animals with short-term RF. Lipid extraction and separation by thin-layer chromatography revealed a marked LA trapping as trilinolein (TL) in the perfused intestinal tissue in the short-term RF group. The esterification process, as defined by the rate of LA incorporation into TL, was moderately reduced in short-term RF animals. The thickness of the unstirred water layer showed no significant difference among the groups studied. In contrast, animals with long-term RF exhibited normal absorption of LA in vivo at all concentrations tested. In conclusion, LA absorption is reduced in short-term RF and restored in long-term RF. Several steps including LA transport into and TL transport out of the enterocyte and the esterification process were impaired in short-term RF. These changes are not due to alteration in the unstirred water layer, anorexia, weight loss or a rapid effect of uraemic chemical environment or circulatory factors.

scholarly journals Public Debt and Economic Growth in The SouthEast Asian Countries

2017 ◽  
Vol 6 (1) ◽  
pp. 177-188
Author(s):  
Muhammad Ghafur Wibowo
Keyword(s):  
Economic Growth ◽  
Southeast Asia ◽  
Public Debt ◽  
Government Debt ◽  
Asian Countries ◽  
Macroeconomic Policies ◽  
Role Of Government ◽  
The Relationship ◽  
Southeast Asian Countries

This study examines the relationship between public debt and economic growth in eight countries in Southeast Asia that are members of ASEAN. Through the study will contribute reference for each country to establish their macroeconomic policies. Using 10 years of data from 2006 to 2015 and analysis tools Autoregression Vector (VAR), the study attempts to test the theory of finance led growth. The main finding of this study is that public debt is actually able to increase the economic growth of a country significantly, although it takes a few years of its existence. This finding supports several previous studies that demonstrate the important role of government debt to the economy of a country.DOI: 10.15408/sjie.v6i1.4779

scholarly journals Long‐term government debt and household portfolio composition

10.3982/qe836 ◽  
2019 ◽  
Vol 10 (3) ◽  
pp. 1109-1151 ◽  
Author(s):  
Andreas Tischbirek
Keyword(s):  
Stock Returns ◽  
Portfolio Choice ◽  
Participation Rate ◽  
Government Debt ◽  
Short Term ◽  
Distribution Of Wealth ◽  
Consumer Finances ◽  
Household Portfolio ◽  
Debt Market

Formal dynamic analyses of household portfolio choice in the literature focus on holdings of equity and a risk‐free asset or bonds of different maturities, neglecting the interdependence of the decisions to invest in equity, short‐term and long‐term bonds made by households. Data from the Survey of Consumer Finances is used to derive stylized facts about participation in the long‐term government‐debt market and conditional portfolio shares. To explain the mechanisms underlying these facts, I draw on a life‐cycle model in which investors have access to three financial assets—equity, long‐term debt, and a riskless short‐term bond—and are exposed to uninsurable idiosyncratic risk through nonfinancial income as well as aggregate risk through the asset returns. An application shows that the low Treasury returns observed in the US between 2009 and 2013 have quantitatively significant yet transitory effects on the composition of household portfolios. In combination with the observed rise in stock returns, they lead to persistent changes in the participation rate, the conditional portfolio shares, and the distribution of wealth.

What: A Broader Education

2017 ◽  
Author(s):  
David Willetts
Keyword(s):  
Economic Growth ◽  
Human Capital ◽  
English Education ◽  
Western Country ◽  
The Other ◽  
Intellectual Life ◽  
Two Cultures ◽  
Wide Range ◽  
Look Back

The value of universities is not simply their contribution to human capital and economic growth, welcome though these are. Universities should enable a graduate to lead a flourishing, fulfilled life. That must mean the capacity to engage with the wide range of extraordinary intellectual and cultural achievements to which we are heirs and to which we should add for the next generation. It is the most important single responsibility of our universities and it is where the most significant reform is required. English education requires 16-year-olds to take life-changing decisions to specialize in just three subjects, and indeed allows students to drop a range of subjects at the age of 14. No other major Western country does this. It is the source of many of the other problems which we worry about. Fewer girls do STEM subjects after the age of 16 than in most other countries because in England they are presented with irreversible decisions to give them up when they are much too young. We suffer particularly acutely from C. P. Snow’s two cultures because our teenagers can join one of two apparently deeply hostile gangs—the humanities or the sciences, the Montagues and the Capulets of intellectual life—when most other countries avoid promoting such divisions. When employers complain about employability they often mean that young people have been force-fed for a narrow academic curriculum without a wider range of subjects and skills. Above all, as I look back on my education, my greatest regret—and that of many friends and contemporaries as we get older—is that we missed out on great scientific or cultural achievements of our age because of early decisions whose long-term significance we completely failed to recognize. I greatly enjoyed studying History, English, and German for my A levels but now I am shocked at the barbarism of a system which restricted my studies to those three subjects at the age of 16. This is the intellectual and cultural damage inflicted by our educational system when above all it should broaden our horizons and enlighten us. That this system is preserved on the claim it is necessary for high academic standards is even more scandalous.

scholarly journals Incidence and treatment outcome of oral lichen planus in Southeast Serbia in a 10-year period (1997-2007)

2009 ◽  
Vol 66 (6) ◽  
pp. 434-439 ◽  
Author(s):  
Ljiljana Kesic ◽  
Radmila Obradovic ◽  
Dragan Mihailovic ◽  
Goran Radicevic ◽  
Sasa Stankovic ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Lichen Planus ◽  
Oral Lichen Planus ◽  
Clinical Manifestations ◽  
Systemic Corticosteroids ◽  
Short Course ◽  
Wide Range ◽  
Significant Difference ◽  
Oral Lichen

Background/Aim. Lichen planus is a chronic, immunologic, mucocutaneous disease with a wide range of clinical manifestations. The aim of this retrospective study was to evaluate the most common forms of oral lichen planus (OLP) and its symptoms and to describe treatment responses in patients during 10-year period. Methods. The study was conduced on 163 OLP patients who came in the Department of Oral medicine and Periodontology between 1997 and September 2007. Each case was classified into one of four clinical subtypes: reticular, atrophic, erosive-ulcerative, bullous. Results. There was no significant difference in patients age. Women were found to be significantly more likely to have OLP (p < 0.001). Corticosteroids were effective in reducing symptoms, erythema and healing ulcers. Improvement was shown over a long term in 61.35% patients. Over the long term 38.65% patients maintained the same type of OLP or it became a more severe type. Two patients (1.22%) developed oral carcinoma during the follow-up period. Conclusion. The response of patients with erosive OLP to a short course of systemic corticosteroids often was quite remarkable. However, symptoms and signs tended to recur after this treatment. Periodic examinations, patient education, medical treatment, monitoring of side-effects as well as follow-up biopsies are necessary for management of OLP patients.

scholarly journals Stock Returns and Liquidity Changes Around the Screening Announcement: An Empirical Study in Indonesia

2016 ◽  
Vol 3 (2) ◽  
pp. 099
Author(s):  
D. Y. Rahmasuciana ◽  
A. Alwahidin ◽  
A. S. Utomo ◽  
Muhammad Rofi'i
Keyword(s):  
Empirical Study ◽  
Statistical Method ◽  
Stock Returns ◽  
Stock Return ◽  
The Other ◽  
Stock Index ◽  
Expected Return ◽  
Significant Difference ◽  
Stock Screening

This paper aims to identify and analyze the volatility of stock returns and the changes of liquidity around the announcement of Shari’ah stock screening published by Otoritas Jasa Keuangan (OJK) and Dewan Syariah Nasional (DSN-MUI). The announcement is consist of stocks that become the constituent of ISSI (Indonesia Shari’ah Stock Index) and the stocks out from ISSI in each period. The number of data are 341 emitens, divided into two categories. The first category was 196 stocks that out from the composition of  ISSI, and  the second was shari’ah stock from 145 emitens which categorized as part of ISSI from 2011 to 2016. The statistical method (t-test) is used to analyze the change of stock returns and the change of liquidity in 14 days around the announcement (6 days pre- and post announcement). The result shows that Shari’ah compliant stocks over 6 years around the announcement have no difference in return and have negative sign for both the Shari’ah stocks and the stocks out from ISS. It may caused by the intention of Islamic investor which invest their capital based on the compliance of Shari’ah, so the returns do not become the most important one. Interestingly, on the other hand, the liquidity change of stocks which out of ISSI has negative significant difference on the days after the announcement of screening. It indicates that the non-compliant stocks have negative in change of liquidity or have significant liquidity declining after the announcement. Also, in fact Islamic invetors are more concern in the list of stocks that out from ISSI and the stock returns become less important to them than the compliance of investment. Thess findings confirm the issue that the screening is not effecting the expected return of investors. Besides, this study tells that the screening is perceived as important information by the investors in making decisions. Thus, the next studies are needed to investigate the effect of long-term investment on shari’a stock and the factors that influence the shari’a stock return during the period of announcement.

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