scholarly journals Devising Mineral Resource Supply Pathways to a Low-Carbon Electricity Generation by 2100

Resources ◽  
2019 ◽  
Vol 8 (1) ◽  
pp. 33 ◽  
Author(s):  
Antoine Boubault ◽  
Nadia Maïzi
Keyword(s):  
Life Cycle ◽  
Integrated Assessment ◽  
Fossil Fuels ◽  
Mineral Resources ◽  
Integrated Assessment Model ◽  
Assessment Model ◽  
Raw Material ◽  
Low Carbon ◽  
Life Cycle Inventories ◽  
The Impact

Achieving a “carbon neutral” world by 2100 or earlier in a context of economic growth implies a drastic and profound transformation of the way energy is supplied and consumed in our societies. In this paper, we use life-cycle inventories of electricity-generating technologies and an integrated assessment model (TIMES Integrated Assessment Model) to project the global raw material requirements in two scenarios: a second shared socioeconomic pathway baseline, and a 2 °C scenario by 2100. Material usage reported in the life-cycle inventories is distributed into three phases, namely construction, operation, and decommissioning. Material supply dynamics and the impact of the 2 °C warming limit are quantified for three raw fossil fuels and forty-eight metallic and nonmetallic mineral resources. Depending on the time horizon, graphite, sand, sulfur, borates, aluminum, chromium, nickel, silver, gold, rare earth elements or their substitutes could face a sharp increase in usage as a result of a massive installation of low-carbon technologies. Ignoring nonfuel resource availability and value in deep decarbonation, circular economy, or decoupling scenarios can potentially generate misleading, contradictory, or unachievable climate policies.

Climate assessment of emissions scenarios for use in WG3 of the IPCC’s Sixth Assessment Report

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Matthew Gidden ◽  
Zebedee Nicholls ◽  
Edward Byers ◽  
Gaurav Ganti ◽  
Jarmo Kikstra ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Atmospheric Chemistry ◽  
Integrated Assessment ◽  
Integrated Assessment Model ◽  
Assessment Model ◽  
Model Description ◽  
Carbon Budgets ◽  
Climate Assessment ◽  
Emissions Scenarios ◽  
Paris Climate Agreement ◽  
The Impact

<p>Consistent and comparable climate assessments of scenarios are critical within the context of IPCC assessment reports. Given the number of scenarios assessed by WG3, the assessment “pipeline” must be almost completely automated. Here, we present the application of a new assessment pipeline which combines state-of-the-art components into a single workflow in order to derive climate outcomes for integrated assessment model (IAM) scenarios assessed by WG3 of the IPCC. A consistent analysis ensures that WG3’s conclusions about the socioeconomic transformations required to maintain a safe climate are based on the best understanding of our planetary boundaries from WG1. For example, if WG1 determines that climate sensitivity is higher than previously considered, then WG3 could incorporate this insight by e.g. considering much smaller remaining carbon budgets for any given temperature target.</p><p> </p><p>The scenario-climate assessment pipeline is comprised of three primary components. First, a consistent harmonization algorithm which maintains critical model characteristics between harmonized and unharmonized scenarios [1] is employed to harmonize emissions trajectories to a common and consistent historical dataset as used in CMIP6 [2]. Next, a scenario’s reported emissions trajectories are analyzed as to the completeness of its species and sectoral coverage. A consistent set of 14 emissions species are expected, aligning with published work within ScenarioMIP and CMIP6 (see ref [2], Table 2). Should any component of this full set of emissions trajectories be absent for a given scenario, an algorithm (e.g., generalised quantile walk [3]) is employed in order to “back-fill” missing species at the native model regional resolution. Finally, full emissions scenarios are analyzed by an Earth System Model emulator, e.g., MAGICC [4].</p><p> </p><p>In this presentation, we explore differences in climate assessments and estimated remaining carbon budgets across various components of the pipeline for available scenarios in the literature. We consider the impact of alternative choices, especially those made in prior assessments by the IPCC (AR5, SR15), including, for example, the historical emissions database used, the effect of harmonization and back-filling, as well as the version and setup of MAGICC used. </p><p> </p><p>References</p><p> </p><p>[1] Gidden, M.J., Fujimori, S., van den Berg, M., Klein, D., Smith, S.J., van Vuuren, D.P. and Riahi, K., 2018. A methodology and implementation of automated emissions harmonization for use in Integrated Assessment Models. Environmental Modelling & Software, 105, pp.187-200.</p><p> </p><p>[2] Gidden, M. J., Riahi, K., Smith, S. J., Fujimori, S., Luderer, G., Kriegler, E., van Vuuren, D. P., van den Berg, M., Feng, L., Klein, D., Calvin, K., Doelman, J. C., Frank, S., Fricko, O., Harmsen, M., Hasegawa, T., Havlik, P., Hilaire, J., Hoesly, R., Horing, J., Popp, A., Stehfest, E., and Takahashi, K.: Global emissions pathways under different socioeconomic scenarios for use in CMIP6: a dataset of harmonized emissions trajectories through the end of the century, Geosci. Model Dev., 12, 1443-1475, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-12-1443-2019, 2019.</p><p> </p><p>[3] Teske, S. et al., Achieving the Paris Climate Agreement Goals. Springer, 2019.</p><p> </p><p>[4] Meinshausen, M., Raper, S.C. and Wigley, T.M., 2011. Emulating coupled atmosphere-ocean and carbon cycle models with a simpler model, MAGICC6–Part 1: Model description and calibration. Atmospheric Chemistry and Physics, 11(4), pp.1417-1456.</p>

scholarly journals Estimating environmental co-benefits of U.S. low-carbon pathways using an integrated assessment model with state-level resolution

2018 ◽  
Vol 216 ◽  
pp. 482-493 ◽  
Author(s):  
Yang Ou ◽  
Wenjing Shi ◽  
Steven J. Smith ◽  
Catherine M. Ledna ◽  
J. Jason West ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Integrated Assessment ◽  
State Level ◽  
Integrated Assessment Model ◽  
Assessment Model ◽  
Low Carbon ◽  
Carbon Pathways

Potential social-ecological development of coastal Bangladesh through the 21st century

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Attila N. Lazar ◽  
Robert J. Nicholls ◽  
Craig W. Hutton ◽  
Andres Payo ◽  
Helen Adams ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Sea Level Rise ◽  
Sea Level ◽  
Integrated Assessment ◽  
Integrated Assessment Model ◽  
Assessment Model ◽  
Catchment Management ◽  
Economic Changes ◽  
Coastal Bangladesh ◽  
Social Ecological ◽  
The Impact

<p>Deltas occupy only 1% of global land surface area, but contain 7% of the global human population (ca. 500 million). The influence of changing and interacting climates, demography, economy, land use and coastal/catchment management on deltaic social-ecological systems is complex and little understood. We apply a new and innovative integrated assessment model: The Delta Dynamic Integrated Emulator Model (ΔDIEM) to coastal Bangladesh to explore a range of plausible future scenarios and quantify the sensitivities of selected environmental and socio-economic outcomes to key external and internal drivers. ΔDIEM is a tightly coupled integrated assessment platform considering climate and environmental change, demographic changes, economic changes, household decision making and governance, and designed to support the delta planning in Bangladesh. ΔDIEM allows the testing of a large number of water-based structural and policy interventions within a robust scenario framework, as well as quantify different development trajectories and their trade-offs. In this sensitivity analysis, we quantified the impact of (i) climate (precipitation, temperature and runoff), (ii) relative sea-level rise, (iii) cyclone frequency, (iv) embankment maintenance, (v) population size, (vi) economic changes at household level such as selling price of crops, cost of food, etc., (vii) land cover, and (viii) farming practices on trajectories of inundated area, soil salinity, rice productivity, poverty, income inequality and GDP/capita, assuming two contrasting scenarios in a more Positive and a more Negative World. Trajectories of these plausible futures showed a clear separation and the long-term trends are greatly influenced by the combinations of scenario assumptions. Our systemic results indicate a diverse potential set of futures for coastal Bangladesh, where good governance and adaptation could effectively mitigate the threat of sea-level rise-induced catastrophic inundation and other adverse impacts of the changing climate. However, societal inequality requires special attention otherwise climate-sensitive population groups may be left behind.</p>

scholarly journals ECONOMIC IMPACTS OF CLIMATE CHANGE AND AIR POLLUTION IN CHINA THROUGH HEALTH AND LABOR SUPPLY PERSPECTIVE: AN INTEGRATED ASSESSMENT MODEL ANALYSIS

2020 ◽  
Vol 11 (03) ◽  
pp. 2041001
Author(s):  
CAN WANG ◽  
HAI HUANG ◽  
WENJIA CAI ◽  
MENGZHEN ZHAO ◽  
JIN LI ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Air Pollution ◽  
Air Quality ◽  
Labor Supply ◽  
Low Income ◽  
Integrated Assessment ◽  
Integrated Assessment Model ◽  
Assessment Model ◽  
Low Carbon ◽  
Study Results

An energy supply dominated by the use of fossil fuels causes both climate change and air pollution, which have negative impacts on human capital via both health and productivity. In addition, different people are affected differently because of factors such as age, gender and education level. To enhance the understanding of the benefits of low carbon transition from the labor supply perspective and help to identify strategies of collaborative control for CO2 and local air pollutants in China, an integrated assessment model linking the air quality module and the health impact module with a disaggregated labor sector computable general equilibrium (CGE) economic system is developed and applied in this study. Results show some key findings. First, renewable energy development and carbon capture and storage (CCS) technologies will contribute significantly to GDP in terms of their impact on air quality improvement by 0.99% and 0.54%, respectively, in 2050. Second, due to differences in labor composition, air pollution has, and will continue to have, the greatest impact on sectors with a higher proportion of male and lower-educated workers — such as the coal sector, and it will have the least impact on sectors with a higher proportion of female and higher-educated workers — such as the public administration sector. Third, the different impacts of sector output will increase economic inequality. Highlights • The economic impact of climate change and air pollution is assessed. • A CGE model with disaggregated labor sectors is developed. • The secondary industry is most affected by pollution from a health perspective. • Low-income groups suffer the largest loss of income due to pollution. • A low carbon policy will improve air quality and economic equity.

scholarly journals Mineral resource dissipation in life cycle inventories

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Antoine Beylot ◽  
Fulvio Ardente ◽  
Serenella Sala ◽  
Luca Zampori
Keyword(s):  
Mineral Resource ◽  
Life Cycle ◽  
Primary Production ◽  
Mineral Resources ◽  
Significant Shift ◽  
Temporal Perspective ◽  
Life Cycle Inventories ◽  
Unit Process ◽  
The Impact

Abstract Purpose The assessment of potential environmental impacts associated to mineral resource use in LCA is a highly debated topic. Most current impact assessment methods consider the extraction of resources as the issue of concern, while their dissipation is an emerging concept. This article proposes an approach to account for mineral resource dissipation in life cycle inventories (LCIs), with application to a case study. Methods The definition of mineral resources is first discussed considering both current main LCA practice and the context of resource dissipation. Secondly, the approach is described: considering a short-term perspective (25 years), any flow of resources to (i) environment, (ii) final waste disposal facilities, and (iii) products-in-use in the technosphere, with the resources not providing any significant function anymore (including due to non-functional recycling), is suggested to be reported as dissipative at the level of unit processes. This approach first requires to map the flows of mineral resources into and out of the unit processes under study (“resource flow analysis”), before identifying the dissipative flows and reporting them in LCI datasets. Results and discussion The approach is applied to analyze the direct dissipation of mineral resources along the primary production of copper, using Ecoinvent (v3.5) datasets. The production of 1 kg of copper cathode generates 0.88 kg of direct dissipative flows of resources (primarily calcium carbonate, copper, and to a lower extent iron), with important contributions of “tailings disposal,” “pyrometallurgy,” and “mining and concentration.” Moreover, this article discusses (i) how the developed approach would change the interpretation of results regarding mineral resources in LCA, (ii) how far some key methodological aspects of this approach (e.g., the temporal perspective) can affect the inventory results (e.g., in the case of the primary production of copper, considering a long-term perspective implies a significant shift in main contributions regarding both unit processes and resource flows), and finally (iii) the issue of new data requirements, in terms of availability and adequacy. Conclusions As demonstrated in the case study, existing LCI datasets and supporting documentation contain at least part of the data and information required to consistently compile the dissipative flows of resources at the unit process level, yet with the need for some complementary data and assessments. This approach may be particularly relevant to better support the development of more resource-efficient techniques or product designs. It is still open how to adapt characterization approaches to account for the impact induced by these resource dissipative flows.

scholarly journals Case study of a water bioengineering construction site in Austria. Ecological aspects and application of an environmental life cycle assessment model

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
M. von der Thannen ◽  
S. Hoerbinger ◽  
C. Muellebner ◽  
H. Biber ◽  
H. P. Rauch
Keyword(s):  
Global Warming ◽  
Life Cycle Assessment ◽  
Life Cycle ◽  
Energy Demand ◽  
Assessment Model ◽  
Construction Site ◽  
Negative Effects ◽  
Environmental Life Cycle Assessment ◽  
The Impact ◽  
Soil And Water

AbstractRecently, applications of soil and water bioengineering constructions using living plants and supplementary materials have become increasingly popular. Besides technical effects, soil and water bioengineering has the advantage of additionally taking into consideration ecological values and the values of landscape aesthetics. When implementing soil and water bioengineering structures, suitable plants must be selected, and the structures must be given a dimension taking into account potential impact loads. A consideration of energy flows and the potential negative impact of construction in terms of energy and greenhouse gas balance has been neglected until now. The current study closes this gap of knowledge by introducing a method for detecting the possible negative effects of installing soil and water bioengineering measures. For this purpose, an environmental life cycle assessment model has been applied. The impact categories global warming potential and cumulative energy demand are used in this paper to describe the type of impacts which a bioengineering construction site causes. Additionally, the water bioengineering measure is contrasted with a conventional civil engineering structure. The results determine that the bioengineering alternative performs slightly better, in terms of energy demand and global warming potential, than the conventional measure. The most relevant factor is shown to be the impact of the running machines at the water bioengineering construction site. Finally, an integral ecological assessment model for applications of soil and water bioengineering structures should point out the potential negative effects caused during installation and, furthermore, integrate the assessment of potential positive effects due to the development of living plants in the use stage of the structures.

scholarly journals The role of biomaterials for the energy transition from the lens of a national integrated assessment model

2021 ◽  
Vol 167 (3-4) ◽  
Author(s):  
Camilla C. N. de Oliveira ◽  
Gerd Angelkorte ◽  
Pedro R. R. Rochedo ◽  
Alexandre Szklo
Keyword(s):  
Integrated Assessment ◽  
Energy Transition ◽  
Integrated Assessment Model ◽  
Assessment Model

scholarly journals Sustainability of Extraction of Raw Material by a Combination of Mobile and Stationary Mining Machines and Optimization of Machine Life Cycle

2020 ◽  
Vol 12 (24) ◽  
pp. 10454
Author(s):  
Katarína Teplická ◽  
Martin Straka
Keyword(s):  
Life Cycle ◽  
Raw Materials ◽  
Simulation Method ◽  
Raw Material ◽  
Optimal Distribution ◽  
Transport Costs ◽  
Scientific Discussion ◽  
Mining Companies ◽  
Conveyor Belts ◽  
The Impact

This article summarizes the arguments within the scientific discussion on the issue of using mining machines and their life cycle. The main goal of the article is to investigate the impact of a combination of mobile and stationary mining machines and their optimal distribution in the mining process to increase the efficiency of mining and processing of raw materials. The following methods of research were focused on the use of technical indicators for the valuation efficiency of the mining process: a simulation method was used for the distribution of mining machines, comparison analysis was used for the real and past state of mining machines, and a decision tree was used as managerial instrument for optimal alternatives of mining machines. The research empirically confirms and theoretically proves that optimal distribution of mining machines and machine parks is very important for mining companies. The benefit of this research for the mining company was the new location of the machines and the combination of stationary production lines and mobile equipment. The optimal layout of the machines reduced the number of conveyor belts and improved the transfer of limestone processing to mobile devices, saving time, which was reflected in transport costs. The results can be useful for other mining companies seeking to create an optimal machine park.

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