scholarly journals Bayesian Predictive Analysis of Natural Disaster Losses

Risks ◽  
2021 ◽  
Vol 9 (1) ◽  
pp. 12
Author(s):  
Min Deng ◽  
Mostafa Aminzadeh ◽  
Min Ji
Keyword(s):  
Natural Disasters ◽  
Natural Disaster ◽  
Pareto Distribution ◽  
Risk Measures ◽  
Low Frequency ◽  
The United States ◽  
Predictive Analysis ◽  
Inverse Gamma ◽  
Yearly Average ◽  
Disaster Losses

Different types of natural events hit the United States every year. The data of natural hazards from 1900 to 2016 in the US shows that there is an increasing trend in annul natural disaster losses after 1980. Climate change is recognized as one of the factors causing this trend, and predictive analysis of natural losses becomes important in loss prediction and risk prevention as this trend continues. In this paper, we convert natural disaster losses to the year 2016 dollars using yearly average Consumers Price Index (CPI), and conduct several tests to verify that the CPI adjusted amounts of loss from individual natural disasters are independent and identically distributed. Based on these test results, we use various model selection quantities to find the best model for the natural loss severity among three composite distributions, namely Exponential-Pareto, Inverse Gamma-Pareto, and Lognormal-Pareto. These composite distributions model piecewise small losses with high frequency and large losses with low frequency. Remarkably, we make the first attempt to derive analytical Bayesian estimate of the Lognormal-Pareto distribution based on the selected priors, and show that the Lognormal-Pareto distribution outperforms the other two composite distributions in modeling natural disaster losses. Important risk measures for natural disasters are thereafter derived and discussed.

scholarly journals Disaster-Related Environmental Health Hazards: Former Lead Smelting Plants in the United States

2014 ◽  
Vol 8 (1) ◽  
pp. 44-50 ◽  
Author(s):  
Yao Wang ◽  
Robert K. Kanter
Keyword(s):  
New York ◽  
High Risk ◽  
Natural Disasters ◽  
Natural Disaster ◽  
Rhode Island ◽  
Urban Areas ◽  
The United States ◽  
Environmental Hazards ◽  
Lead Smelting ◽  
Public Responsibility

AbstractObjectiveNatural disasters exacerbate risks of hazardous environmental exposures and adverse health consequences. The present study determined the proportion of previously identified lead industrial sites in urban locations that are at high risk for dispersal of toxic chemicals by natural disasters.MethodsGeographic analysis from publicly available data identified former lead smelting plants that coincide with populated urban areas and with high-risk locations for natural disasters.ResultsFrom a total of 229 urban smelting sites, 66 (29%) were in relatively high-risk areas for natural disasters: flood (39), earthquake (29), tornado (3), and hurricane (2). States with urban sites at relatively high risk for natural disaster included California (15); Pennsylvania (14); New York (7); Missouri (6); Illinois (5); New Jersey (4); Kentucky (3); Florida, Oregon, and Ohio (2 each); and Indiana, Massachusetts, Rhode Island, Texas, Utah, and Washington (1 each). Incomplete historical records showed at least 10 smelting site locations were affected by natural disaster.ConclusionsForgotten environmental hazards may remain hazardous in any community. Uncertainty about risks in disasters causes disruptive public anxiety that increases difficulties in community responses and recovery. Our professional and public responsibility is to seek a better understanding of the risks of latent environmental hazards. (Disaster Med Public Health Preparedness. 2014;0:1–7)

scholarly journals Role of IoT devices in Flood Monitoring System using Social Networking Sites

2020 ◽  
Vol 9 (4) ◽  
pp. 1986-1994
Keyword(s):  
Social Networking ◽  
Natural Disasters ◽  
Natural Disaster ◽  
Social Networking Sites ◽  
Human Life ◽  
Response Recovery ◽  
Flood Monitoring ◽  
Disaster Losses ◽  
Iot Devices

Each country has a natural disaster, but catastrophe losses can't be avoided. The loss of human life, damage to the environment, infrastructure degradation, etc. Which in turn affects the country's development facing the disaster's wrath? In this analysis, we discuss the various methods available in the literature to reduce the losses in flood-related natural disasters. There are four major steps in the prevention of disaster losses, including preparedness, response, recovery and mitigation. Existing methods that address the above steps and all the current methods have certain limitations and are therefore not all sufficient to minimize losses due to flooding. In order to overcome all the deficiencies in the exit method, we propose an IoT devices based algorithm to get the number of victims and survivors due to flood and reduce the flood losses model using social networking sites.

Satellite Data Analytics for Natural Disaster Assessment and Application to Pipeline Safety

2018 ◽  
Author(s):  
Mark Piazza ◽  
Karineh Gregorian ◽  
Gillian Robert ◽  
Nicolas Svacina ◽  
Lesley Gamble
Keyword(s):  
Change Detection ◽  
Natural Disasters ◽  
Natural Disaster ◽  
Satellite Data ◽  
The United States ◽  
Pipeline System ◽  
Detection Algorithms ◽  
Satellite Technology ◽  
Disaster Assessment ◽  
Change Detection Algorithms

Understanding where, when, and how conditions are changing along the extent of an energy pipeline system, which can be vast, is a challenging task. The challenge can be even greater when natural disasters1 create a condition where access to affected pipelines, qualified personnel, and equipment is limited. To address these challenges, pipeline operators are working directly with experts in satellite technology to develop innovative applications incorporating the use of satellite technology and analytical processes to improve natural disaster monitoring and response. Through recent experiences following Hurricane Harvey in the Gulf Coast region of the United States in August-September 2017 and the wildfires and mudslides in Southern California that occurred in December 2017 to January 2018, space-borne Synthetic Aperture Radar (SAR) satellite data was shown to be a useful tool for wide-area monitoring. Satellite-based SAR imagery has the unique advantage of penetrating through cloud cover and smoke and is capable of providing an early view of the extent of damage in both conditions. Satellite data and continuous improvements to their derived analytical products have resulted in significant benefits for pipeline operators preparing for and responding to the effects of potentially damaging natural processes, including river scour, erosion, avulsion, mudslides, and other threats to pipeline integrity and public safety. SAR change detection algorithms and processes can provide effective results in identifying areas affected by natural disasters that are not readily available by other means. These methods also provide timely information for allocating and directing resources to the most critical locations in support of post-disaster assessment and analysis. SAR satellite data and Amplitude Change Detection (ACD) algorithms provided the basis for confirming where flooding near pipeline infrastructure was most substantial following Hurricane Harvey. In the case of the Southern Californian forest fires and mudslides in Ventura and Santa Barbara counties, recent investigations into ACD and Coherence Change Detection (CCD) algorithms showed promising results, providing a detailed view of damaged areas in near-real time. This paper describes the process of collecting, analyzing, and applying satellite data for assessing the impacts of natural disasters on pipeline infrastructure, and the methods applied, consisting primarily of multiple change detection algorithms, that are used to process the large volume of satellite archive images to extract relevant changes. This paper also describes how these tools and products were practically applied to support decisions by pipeline operators to protect and ensure the integrity and safety of pipelines in the affected areas.

The Theodicy of Natural Disasters

1998 ◽  
Vol 51 (4) ◽  
pp. 485-506 ◽  
Author(s):  
D. K. Chester
Keyword(s):  
Natural Disasters ◽  
The United States ◽  
Training Manual ◽  
Disaster Reduction ◽  
Nineteen Nineties ◽  
Kobe Earthquake ◽  
Vast Literature ◽  
Disaster Losses ◽  
Academy Of Sciences ◽  
International Decade

In 1993 Frank Press, President of the United States Academy of Sciences estimated that in a typical year ie. one without a major catastrophe on the scale of the Kobe earthquake or Sahel droughts, some 250,000 people will die and losses of US$40 billion will result from natural disasters (Press 1993). In recent years much has been written about the physical causes of and human responses to natural disasters (see: Hewitt, 1983a, 1983b; Alexander, 1993; Chester 1993; Blaikie et al. 1994 and Chester et al. 1996, for extensive bibliographies), and this vast literature reflects increasing concern over disaster losses and a growing realization that most losses are preventable. Prompted by this concern the United Nations has designated the nineteen-nineties the International Decade for Natural Disaster Reduction, or IDNDR. With the exception of a training manual for foreign mission workers published by the Evangelical Interchurch Relief and Development Alliance (Davis and Wall 1992), trenchant reflections by Austin Farrer (1966) and limited treatment in works focusing on wider ecotheological issues (eg. Russell 1994: 35–50), theologians have been conspicuous by their absence from what is now a global debate on natural disasters and their mitigation.

Women’s Mental Health and Intimate Partner Violence Following Natural Disaster: A Scoping Review

2016 ◽  
Vol 31 (6) ◽  
pp. 648-657 ◽  
Author(s):  
Sue Anne Bell ◽  
Lisa A. Folkerth
Keyword(s):  
Mental Health ◽  
Intimate Partner Violence ◽  
Health Outcomes ◽  
Natural Disasters ◽  
Natural Disaster ◽  
Scoping Review ◽  
Partner Violence ◽  
The United States ◽  
Intimate Partner ◽  
Mental Health Outcomes

AbstractIntroductionSurvivors of natural disasters in the United States experience significant health ramifications. Women particularly are vulnerable to both post-disaster posttraumatic stress disorder (PTSD) and depression, and research has documented that these psychopathological sequelae often are correlated with increased incidence of intimate partner violence (IPV). Understanding the link between these health concerns is crucial to informing adequate disaster response and relief efforts for victims of natural disaster.PurposeThe purpose of this review was to report the results of a scoping review on the specific mental health effects that commonly impact women following natural disasters, and to develop a conceptual framework with which to guide future research.MethodsA scoping review of mental and physical health effects experienced by women following natural disasters in the United States was conducted. Articles from 2000-2015 were included. Databases examined were PubMed, PsycInfo, Cochrane, JSTOR, Web of Science, and databases available through ProQuest, including ProQuest Research Library.ResultsA total of 58 articles were selected for inclusion, out of an original 149 that were selected for full-text review. Forty-eight articles, or 82.8%, focused on mental health outcomes. Ten articles, or 17.2%, focused on IPV.DiscussionCertain mental health outcomes, including PTSD, depression, and other significant mental health concerns, were recurrent issues for women post-disaster. Despite the strong correlation between experience of mental health consequences after disaster and increased risk of domestic violence, studies on the risk and mediating factors are rare. The specific challenges faced by women and the interrelation between negative mental health outcomes and heightened exposure to IPV following disasters require a solid evidence base in order to facilitate the development of effective interventions. Additional research informed by theory on probable health impacts is necessary to improve development/implementation of emergency relief policy.BellSA, FolkerthLA. Women’s mental health and intimate partner violence following natural disaster: a scoping review. Prehosp Disaster Med. 2016;31(6):648–657.

When Mother Earth Rises Up

2013 ◽  
Vol 44 (4) ◽  
pp. 271-277 ◽  
Author(s):  
Simona Sacchi ◽  
Paolo Riva ◽  
Marco Brambilla
Keyword(s):  
Free Will ◽  
Natural Disasters ◽  
Natural Disaster ◽  
Mental States ◽  
Disaster Victims ◽  
Willingness To Help ◽  
Mother Earth

Anthropomorphization is the tendency to ascribe humanlike features and mental states, such as free will and consciousness, to nonhuman beings or inanimate agents. Two studies investigated the consequences of the anthropomorphization of nature on people’s willingness to help victims of natural disasters. Study 1 (N = 96) showed that the humanization of nature correlated negatively with willingness to help natural disaster victims. Study 2 (N = 52) tested for causality, showing that the anthropomorphization of nature reduced participants’ intentions to help the victims. Overall, our findings suggest that humanizing nature undermines the tendency to support victims of natural disasters.

Law on Natural Disasters

2018 ◽  
Author(s):  
Ki-Gab Park
Keyword(s):  
Natural Disasters ◽  
International Cooperation ◽  
Natural Disaster ◽  
International Community ◽  
The State ◽  
Efficient Tool ◽  
International Solidarity ◽  
Cooperation Mechanism ◽  
Prior Consent ◽  
Humanitarian Crises

The chapter argues that natural disasters are common concerns in the international community. At the same time, the current international cooperation mechanism, based on the principle of equal sovereignty, require prior consent by the state affected by a natural disaster. Unfortunately, this is not always an efficient tool for the protection of victims. The globalization of problems and the proliferation of humanitarian crises make the veritable solidarity of the international community increasingly necessary, and therefore another high value, namely international solidarity or community obligations, should create direct and immediate obligations for all members of the international community. The main object of this chapter is to discuss the future-oriented direction of the law on natural disasters. This means, first, to ascertain the lex lata, especially customary rules. The chapter further offers some suggestions on possible ways for the international community to provide more effective relief for victims of natural disasters.

Detection by real-time quaking-induced conversion (RT-QuIC), ELISA, and IHC of chronic wasting disease prion in lymph nodes from Pennsylvania white-tailed deer with specific PRNP genotypes

2021 ◽  
pp. 104063872110214
Author(s):  
Deepanker Tewari ◽  
David Steward ◽  
Melinda Fasnacht ◽  
Julia Livengood
Keyword(s):  
Real Time ◽  
Disease Susceptibility ◽  
Chronic Wasting Disease ◽  
Low Frequency ◽  
The United States ◽  
Detection Methods ◽  
Spongiform Encephalopathy ◽  
Wasting Disease ◽  
Diagnostic Laboratory ◽  
Highly Sensitive

Chronic wasting disease (CWD) is a prion-mediated, transmissible disease of cervids, including deer ( Odocoileus spp.), which is characterized by spongiform encephalopathy and death of the prion-infected animals. Official surveillance in the United States using immunohistochemistry (IHC) and ELISA entails the laborious collection of lymphoid and/or brainstem tissue after death. New, highly sensitive prion detection methods, such as real-time quaking-induced conversion (RT-QuIC), have shown promise in detecting abnormal prions from both antemortem and postmortem specimens. We compared RT-QuIC with ELISA and IHC for CWD detection utilizing deer retropharyngeal lymph node (RLN) tissues in a diagnostic laboratory setting. The RLNs were collected postmortem from hunter-harvested animals. RT-QuIC showed 100% sensitivity and specificity for 50 deer RLN (35 positive by both IHC and ELISA, 15 negative) included in our study. All deer were also genotyped for PRNP polymorphism. Most deer were homozygous at codons 95, 96, 116, and 226 (QQ/GG/AA/QQ genotype, with frequency 0.86), which are the codons implicated in disease susceptibility. Heterozygosity was noticed in Pennsylvania deer, albeit at a very low frequency, for codons 95GS (0.06) and 96QH (0.08), but deer with these genotypes were still found to be CWD prion-infected.

scholarly journals Do Long-Term Natural Disasters Influence Social Trust? Empirical Evidence from China

2021 ◽  
Vol 18 (14) ◽  
pp. 7280
Author(s):  
Yao Li ◽  
Haoyang Li ◽  
Jianqing Ruan
Keyword(s):  
Natural Disasters ◽  
Natural Disaster ◽  
Social Trust ◽  
Geographical Location ◽  
Household Survey ◽  
Flood Frequency ◽  
Psychological Characteristics ◽  
The North ◽  
The Impact

The natural environment is one of the most critical factors that profoundly influences human races. Natural disasters may have enormous effects on individual psychological characteristics. Using China’s long-term historical natural disaster dataset from 1470 to 2000 and data from a household survey in 2012, we explore whether long-term natural disasters affect social trust. We find that there is a statistically significant positive relationship between long-term natural disaster frequency and social trust. We further examine the impact of long-term natural disaster frequency on social trust in specific groups of people. Social trust in neighbors and doctors is stronger where long-term natural disasters are more frequent. Our results are robust after we considering the geographical difference. The effect of long-term natural disasters remains positively significant after we divide the samples based on geographical location. Interestingly, the impact of long-term flood frequency is only significant in the South and the impact of long-term drought frequency is only significant in the North.

scholarly journals Return Migration after Natural Disasters

2017 ◽  
Vol 3 (1) ◽  
pp. 1 ◽  
Author(s):  
Mikiyasu Nakayama ◽  
Nicholas Nicholas Bryner ◽  
Satoru Mimura
Keyword(s):  
United States ◽  
Natural Disasters ◽  
Hurricane Katrina ◽  
Case Studies ◽  
Return Migration ◽  
The United States ◽  
Hurricane Sandy ◽  
Indian Ocean Tsunami ◽  
Special Issue ◽  
Post Disaster

This special issue features policy priorities, public perceptions, and policy options for addressing post-disaster return migration in the United States, Japan, and a couple of Asian countries. It includes a series of case studies in these countries, which are based on a sustained dialogue among scholars and policymakers about whether and how to incentivize the return of displaced persons, considering social, economic, and environmental concerns. The research team, composed of researchers from Indonesia, Japan, Sri Lanka, and the United States, undertook a collaborative and interdisciplinary research process to improve understanding about how to respond to the needs of those displaced by natural disasters and to develop policy approaches for addressing post-disaster return. The research focused on the following three key issues: objectives of return migration (whether to return, in what configuration, etc.), priorities and perceptions that influence evacuees’ decision-making regarding return, and policies and practices that are used to pursue return objectives. This special issue includes ten articles on the following disaster cases: the Great East Japan Earthquake in 2011, Hurricane Katrina in 2005 and Hurricane Sandy in 2012, the Great Indian Ocean Tsunami in 2004, and the Great Sumatra Island Earthquake in 2009. Important lessons for the future were secured out of these case studies, covering the entire phase of return, namely planning, implementation, and monitoring.

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