scholarly journals The Evolution Response of Ecosystem Cultural Services under Different Scenarios Based on System Dynamics

2020 ◽  
Vol 12 (3) ◽  
pp. 418
Author(s):  
Qiqi Zhao ◽  
Jing Li ◽  
Yuda Cuan ◽  
Zixiang Zhou

Cultural ecosystem services (CES) are a significant part of the ecosystem and are considered to be a core component of human welfare and ecosystem protection. CES have been historically difficult to quantitatively evaluate because of their subjectivity and intangibility. Additionally, their evolution over time has rarely been explored. Here, we quantitatively evaluated various CES and generated corresponding value index (VI) maps. We then further explored the evolution of CES characteristics over space and time. We selected Xi’an as the study area and applied the Social Values of Ecosystem Services (SolVES) model to evaluate CES and generate three specific VI maps. A system dynamics model based on socioeconomic and survey data of CES for each administrative division was established. Finally, we simulated four developmental scenarios in order to predict potential developmental changes of CES in 2030 under these different scenarios. This study provides a method for evaluating CES and explores the application of system dynamics to different fields. Additionally, our findings may provide guidance for the formulation of regional policies and support missions to improve civilizations within ecological systems, coordinate future economic growth with ecosystem services, and achieve sustainable development.

Water ◽  
2020 ◽  
Vol 12 (4) ◽  
pp. 1062 ◽  
Author(s):  
Sleemin Lee ◽  
Doosun Kang

The increasing frequency of extreme droughts and flash floods in recent years due to climate change has increased the interest in sustainable water use and efficient water resource management. Because the water resource sector is closely related to human activities and affected by interactions between the humanities and social sciences, there is a need for interdisciplinary research that can consider various elements, such as society and the economy. This study elucidates relationships within the social and hydrological systems and quantitatively analyzes the effects of a multi-purpose dam on the target society using a system dynamics model. A causal loop was used to identify causal relationships between the social and hydrological components of the target area, and a simulation model was constructed using the system dynamics technique. Additionally, climate change and socio-economic scenarios were applied to analyze the future effects of the multi-purpose dam on population change, the regional economy, water use, and flood damage prevention in the target area. The model proved reliable in predicting socio-economic changes in the target area and can be used to make decisions about efficient water resource management and water-resource-related facility planning.


2010 ◽  
Vol 20 (2) ◽  
pp. 59-62
Author(s):  
Patrick Einzinger ◽  
Günther Zauner ◽  
G. Ganjeizadeh-Rouhani

Systems ◽  
2021 ◽  
Vol 9 (3) ◽  
pp. 56
Author(s):  
Urmila Basu Mallick ◽  
Marja H. Bakermans ◽  
Khalid Saeed

Using Indian free-ranging dogs (FRD) as a case study, we propose a novel intervention of social integration alongside previously proposed methods for dealing with FRD populations. Our study subsumes population dynamics, funding avenues, and innovative strategies to maintain FRD welfare and provide societal benefits. We develop a comprehensive system dynamics model, featuring identifiable parameters customizable for any management context and imperative for successfully planning a widescale FRD population intervention. We examine policy resistance and simulate conventional interventions alongside the proposed social integration effort to compare monetary and social rewards, as well as costs and unintended consequences. For challenging socioeconomic ecological contexts, policy resistance is best overcome by shifting priority strategically between social integration and conventional techniques. The results suggest that social integration can financially support a long-term FRD intervention, while transforming a “pest” population into a resource for animal-assisted health interventions, law enforcement, and conservation efforts.


Urban Science ◽  
2021 ◽  
Vol 5 (1) ◽  
pp. 19
Author(s):  
Robert Dare

This article presents a customized system dynamics model to facilitate the informed development of policy for urban heat island mitigation within the context of future climate change, and with special emphasis on the reduction of heat-related mortality. The model incorporates a variety of components (incl.: the urban heat island effect; population dynamics; climate change impacts on temperature; and heat-related mortality) and is intended to provide urban planning and related professionals with: a facilitated means of understanding the risk of heat-related mortality within the urban heat island; and location-specific information to support the development of reasoned and targeted urban heat island mitigation policy.


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