scholarly journals Terrestrial Vertebrate Biodiversity Loss under Future Global Land Use Change Scenarios

2018 ◽  
Vol 10 (8) ◽  
pp. 2764 ◽  
Author(s):  
Abhishek Chaudhary ◽  
Arne Mooers
Keyword(s):  
Land Use ◽  
Land Use Change ◽  
Low Income ◽  
National Development ◽  
Biodiversity Loss ◽  
Mitigation Measures ◽  
Climate Mitigation ◽  
Meat Production ◽  
Diversity Loss ◽  
Global Biodiversity

Efficient forward-looking mitigation measures are needed to halt the global biodiversity decline. These require spatially explicit scenarios of expected changes in multiple indicators of biodiversity under future socio-economic and environmental conditions. Here, we link six future (2050 and 2100) global gridded maps (0.25° × 0.25° resolution) available from the land use harmonization (LUH) database, representing alternative concentration pathways (RCP) and shared socio-economic pathways (SSPs), with the countryside species–area relationship model to project the future land use change driven rates of species extinctions and phylogenetic diversity loss (in million years) for mammals, birds, and amphibians in each of the 804 terrestrial ecoregions and 176 countries and compare them with the current (1900–2015) and past (850–1900) rates of biodiversity loss. Future land-use changes are projected to commit an additional 209–818 endemic species and 1190–4402 million years of evolutionary history to extinction by 2100 depending upon the scenario. These estimates are driven by land use change only and would likely be higher once the direct effects of climate change on species are included. Among the three taxa, highest diversity loss is projected for amphibians. We found that the most aggressive climate mitigation scenario (RCP2.6 SSP-1), representing a world shifting towards a radically more sustainable path, including increasing crop yields, reduced meat production, and reduced tropical deforestation coupled with high trade, projects the lowest land use change driven global biodiversity loss. The results show that hotspots of future biodiversity loss differ depending upon the scenario, taxon, and metric considered. Future extinctions could potentially be reduced if habitat preservation is incorporated into national development plans, especially for biodiverse, low-income countries such as Indonesia, Madagascar, Tanzania, Philippines, and The Democratic Republic of Congo that are otherwise projected to suffer a high number of land use change driven extinctions under all scenarios.

scholarly journals Biodiversity loss under future global socio-economic and climate scenarios

2017 ◽  
Author(s):  
Abhishek Chaudhary ◽  
Arne O. Mooers
Keyword(s):  
Land Use ◽  
Land Use Change ◽  
Low Income ◽  
Crop Yields ◽  
Biodiversity Loss ◽  
Mitigation Measures ◽  
Low Income Countries ◽  
Climate Mitigation ◽  
Meat Production ◽  
Global Biodiversity

ABSTRACTEfficient forward-looking mitigation measures are needed to halt the global biodiversity decline. These require spatially explicit scenarios of expected changes in multiple indicators of biodiversity under future socio-economic and environmental conditions. Here we link five future (2050 and 2100) global gridded maps (0.25° × 0.25° resolution) available from the land use harmonization (LUH) database that represent alternative representative concentration and shared socio-economic pathways (RCP-SSP) with the countryside species-area relationship model to project the future land use change driven rates of species extinctions and phylogenetic diversity loss (in million years) for mammals, birds and amphibians in each of the 804 terrestrial ecoregions and 176 countries and compare them to the current (1900-2015) and past (850-1900) rates of biodiversity loss. Future land-use changes are projected to commit an additional 209-818 endemic species and 1190-4402 million years of evolutionary history to extinction by 2100 depending upon the scenario, equivalent to 20–80% of the number committed to extinction under current (2015) land use extent. Results show that hotspots of future biodiversity loss differ depending upon the scenario, taxon and metric considered. The most aggressive climate mitigation scenario (RCP2.6 SSP-1), representing a world shifting towards a radically more sustainable path including increasing crop yields, reduced meat production and reduced tropical deforestation coupled with high trade, projects the lowest land use change driven global biodiversity loss followed by RCP8.5 SSP-5, RCP6.0 SSP-4 and RCP7.0 SSP-3. Interestingly, the scenario with the second most aggressive climate target (RCP3.4 SSP-4) projected the highest biodiversity loss among the five scenarios tested. This is because it represents a world with continued high consumption in rich countries and increased land clearing for crop production in species rich, low-income countries such as Indonesia, Madagascar, Tanzania, Philippines and DR Congo. These contrasting results illustrate that the strategies to prevent climate change could simultaneously contribute to reduction in current high rates of biodiversity loss, but only if habitat preservation is incorporated into national and global sustainable development plans.

scholarly journals An Introduction to Ecomodernism

2021 ◽  
pp. 163-175
Author(s):  
Hidde Boersma
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Land Use ◽  
Land Use Change ◽  
Production Process ◽  
Biodiversity Loss ◽  
Habitat Destruction ◽  
Meat Production ◽  
Demand Side ◽  
Yield Gaps ◽  
The Impact

AbstractLand use change has detrimental impacts on the planet. It is not only a major cause of biodiversity loss, through habitat destruction and fragmentation, but also an important driver for climate change, through deforestation and peat oxidation. Land use change is mainly driven by food production, of which meat production comprises the major share. Ecomodernists therefore feel reduction of the impact of meat production is paramount for a sustainable future. To achieve this, ecomodernists focus on intensification of the production process to produce more on less land, both through the closing of global yield gaps and through the development of integrated indoor systems like agroparks. On the demand side, ecomodernists feel a diverse strategy is needed, from the development of meat substitutes and lab meat, to the persuasion of consumers to move from beef to monogastrics like pork or chicken.

scholarly journals Tipping point dynamics in global land use

2021 ◽  
Vol 16 (12) ◽  
pp. 125012
Author(s):  
Charles A Taylor ◽  
James Rising
Keyword(s):  
Land Use ◽  
Economic Development ◽  
Land Use Change ◽  
Low Income ◽  
Agricultural Land ◽  
Biodiversity Loss ◽  
Tipping Point ◽  
Critical Threshold ◽  
Natural Ecosystems ◽  
Global Land

Abstract Agricultural land use has recently peaked, both globally and across country income groups, after centuries of expansion and intensification. Such shifts in the evolution of global land use have implications for food security, biodiversity loss, and carbon emissions. While economic growth and land use are closely linked, it is difficult to determine the extent to which the relationship is causal, deterministic, and unidirectional. Here we utilize gridded datasets to study long-term global land use change from 1780 to 2010. We find evidence for an economic tipping point, where land use intensifies with economic development at low income levels, then reverses after incomes reach a critical threshold. Cropland peaks around $5000 GDP per capita then declines. We utilize a Markov model to show that this reversal emerges from a variety of divergent land use pathways, in particular the expansion of protected areas and a reduction in land use lock-in. Our results suggest that economic development remains a powerful driver of land use change with implications for the future of natural ecosystems in the context of continued population and income growth.

scholarly journals A cost-effectiveness analysis of water security and water quality: impacts of climate and land-use change on the River Thames system

2013 ◽  
Vol 371 (2002) ◽  
pp. 20120413 ◽  
Author(s):  
P. G. Whitehead ◽  
J. Crossman ◽  
B. B. Balana ◽  
M. N. Futter ◽  
S. Comber ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Water Quality ◽  
Land Use ◽  
Cost Effectiveness ◽  
Land Use Change ◽  
Algal Blooms ◽  
Economic Benefits ◽  
Point Sources ◽  
Mitigation Measures ◽  
Mitigation And Adaptation ◽  
River Thames

The catchment of the River Thames, the principal river system in southern England, provides the main water supply for London but is highly vulnerable to changes in climate, land use and population. The river is eutrophic with significant algal blooms with phosphorus assumed to be the primary chemical indicator of ecosystem health. In the Thames Basin, phosphorus is available from point sources such as wastewater treatment plants and from diffuse sources such as agriculture. In order to predict vulnerability to future change, the integrated catchments model for phosphorus (INCA-P) has been applied to the river basin and used to assess the cost-effectiveness of a range of mitigation and adaptation strategies. It is shown that scenarios of future climate and land-use change will exacerbate the water quality problems, but a range of mitigation measures can improve the situation. A cost-effectiveness study has been undertaken to compare the economic benefits of each mitigation measure and to assess the phosphorus reductions achieved. The most effective strategy is to reduce fertilizer use by 20% together with the treatment of effluent to a high standard. Such measures will reduce the instream phosphorus concentrations to close to the EU Water Framework Directive target for the Thames.

Hotspots of land-use change in global biodiversity hotspots

2021 ◽  
Vol 174 ◽  
pp. 105770
Author(s):  
Xuesong Kong ◽  
Zhengzi Zhou ◽  
Limin Jiao
Keyword(s):  
Land Use ◽  
Land Use Change ◽  
Biodiversity Hotspots ◽  
Global Biodiversity

scholarly journals Biodiversity can benefit from climate stabilization despite adverse side effects of land-based mitigation

2019 ◽  
Vol 10 (1) ◽  
Author(s):  
Haruka Ohashi ◽  
Tomoko Hasegawa ◽  
Akiko Hirata ◽  
Shinichiro Fujimori ◽  
Kiyoshi Takahashi ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Land Use ◽  
Land Use Changes ◽  
Biodiversity Loss ◽  
Integrated Assessment Model ◽  
Assessment Model ◽  
Net Benefit ◽  
Model Framework ◽  
Natural Habitats ◽  
Ghg Mitigation ◽  
Global Biodiversity

AbstractLimiting the magnitude of climate change via stringent greenhouse gas (GHG) mitigation is necessary to prevent further biodiversity loss. However, some strategies to mitigate GHG emission involve greater land-based mitigation efforts, which may cause biodiversity loss from land-use changes. Here we estimate how climate and land-based mitigation efforts interact with global biodiversity by using an integrated assessment model framework to project potential habitat for five major taxonomic groups. We find that stringent GHG mitigation can generally bring a net benefit to global biodiversity even if land-based mitigation is adopted. This trend is strengthened in the latter half of this century. In contrast, some regions projected to experience much growth in land-based mitigation efforts (i.e., Europe and Oceania) are expected to suffer biodiversity loss. Our results support the enactment of stringent GHG mitigation policies in terms of biodiversity. To conserve local biodiversity, however, these policies must be carefully designed in conjunction with land-use regulations and societal transformation in order to minimize the conversion of natural habitats.

scholarly journals Identifying Land Use Change Trajectories in Brazil’s Agricultural Frontier

Land ◽  
2020 ◽  
Vol 9 (12) ◽  
pp. 506
Author(s):  
Adeline M. Maciel ◽  
Michelle C. A. Picoli ◽  
Lubia Vinhas ◽  
Gilberto Camara
Keyword(s):  
Land Use ◽  
Land Use Change ◽  
Agricultural Practices ◽  
Climate Mitigation ◽  
Change Trajectories ◽  
Mato Grosso ◽  
Double Cropping ◽  
Trajectories Of Change ◽  
The Tropics ◽  
Temporal Trajectory

Many of the world’s agricultural frontiers are located in the tropics. Crop and cattle expansion in these regions has a strong environmental impact. This paper examines land use and land cover transformations in Brazil, where large swaths of natural vegetation are being removed to make way for agricultural production. In Brazil, the land use dynamics are of great interest regarding the country’s sustainable development and climate mitigation actions, leading to the formulation and implantation of public policies and supply chain interventions to reduce deforestation. This paper uses temporal trajectory analysis to discuss the patterns of agricultural practices change in the different biomes of Mato Grosso State, one of Brazil’s agricultural frontiers. Taking yearly land use and cover classified images from 2001 to 2017, we identified, quantified, and spatialized areas of stability, intensification, reduction, interchange, and expansion of single and double cropping. The LUC Calculus was used as a tool to extract information about trajectories and trajectories of change. Over two decades, the land use change trajectories uncover the interplay between forest removal, cattle raising, grain production, and secondary vegetation regrowth. We observed a direct relationship between the conversion of forest areas to pasture and of pasture to agriculture areas in the Amazon portion of the Mato Grosso State in different periods. Our results enable a better understanding of trends in agricultural practices.

scholarly journals Ecological traits affect the response of tropical forest bird species to land-use intensity

2013 ◽  
Vol 280 (1750) ◽  
pp. 20122131 ◽  
Author(s):  
Tim Newbold ◽  
Jörn P. W. Scharlemann ◽  
Stuart H. M. Butchart ◽  
Çağan H. Şekercioğlu ◽  
Rob Alkemade ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Land Use ◽  
Land Use Change ◽  
Bird Species ◽  
Biodiversity Loss ◽  
Species Traits ◽  
Land Use Intensity ◽  
Ecological Traits ◽  
Human Land Use ◽  
Average Probability ◽  
Land Use Intensity Gradient

Land-use change is one of the main drivers of current and likely future biodiversity loss. Therefore, understanding how species are affected by it is crucial to guide conservation decisions. Species respond differently to land-use change, possibly related to their traits. Using pan-tropical data on bird occurrence and abundance across a human land-use intensity gradient, we tested the effects of seven traits on observed responses. A likelihood-based approach allowed us to quantify uncertainty in modelled responses, essential for applying the model to project future change. Compared with undisturbed habitats, the average probability of occurrence of bird species was 7.8 per cent and 31.4 per cent lower, and abundance declined by 3.7 per cent and 19.2 per cent in habitats with low and high human land-use intensity, respectively. Five of the seven traits tested affected the observed responses significantly: long-lived, large, non-migratory, primarily frugivorous or insectivorous forest specialists were both less likely to occur and less abundant in more intensively used habitats than short-lived, small, migratory, non-frugivorous/insectivorous habitat generalists. The finding that species responses to land use depend on their traits is important for understanding ecosystem functioning, because species' traits determine their contribution to ecosystem processes. Furthermore, the loss of species with particular traits might have implications for the delivery of ecosystem services.

scholarly journals Tracing climate and land-use instability reveals new insights into the future of Earth’s remaining wilderness

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Ernest Asamoah ◽  
Moreno Di Marco ◽  
James Watson ◽  
Linda Beaumont ◽  
Oscar Venter ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Land Use ◽  
Land Use Change ◽  
Environmental Change ◽  
Biodiversity Conservation ◽  
Conservation Value ◽  
Natural Ecosystems ◽  
The Future ◽  
Wilderness Areas ◽  
Global Biodiversity

Abstract Accelerated loss of Earth’s wilderness over the last five decades underscores the urgency for efforts to retain the conservation value of these areas. Assessing how wilderness areas are likely to be impacted by the future environmental change is fundamental to achieving global biodiversity conservation goals. Using scenarios of climate and land-use change during baseline (1970–2005) and future (2015–2050) epochs, we found that climate change within wilderness areas is predicted to increase by ~ 47%, compared to a 19% increase in land-use change. Half (52%) of all wilderness areas may undergo climate change by 2050, limiting their capacity to shelter biodiversity. More significant changes are especially predicted to occur in the unprotected wilderness that supports unique assemblages of species and are therefore more important for biodiversity persistence. Countries with smaller and disconnected wilderness areas are disproportionately at risk from the combined impacts of climate and land-use change. Mitigating greenhouse gas emissions and preserving remaining intact natural ecosystems can help fortify these frontiers of biodiversity.

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