scholarly journals Does Housing Policy Sustainability Matter? Evidence from China

2019 ◽  
Vol 11 (17) ◽  
pp. 4761
Author(s):  
Ya Gao ◽  
Xiuting Li ◽  
Jichang Dong
Keyword(s):  
Housing Market ◽  
Housing Policy ◽  
House Prices ◽  
Chinese Economy ◽  
Policy Implications ◽  
Chinese Government ◽  
Difference In Difference ◽  
Housing Policies ◽  
Short Run ◽  
Home Purchase

The housing market plays an important role in the Chinese economy and society. To promote the functioning of the housing market, the Chinese government has imposed many policies and regulations. However, most of these regulations do not take sustainability into consideration. Using a difference-in-difference approach, this paper investigated the impacts of home purchase restriction (HPR) on the housing market in China. While most studies have only focused on the impacts of HPR implementation on the housing market, we also investigated the effects of HPR removal. The results revealed that HPR brings about a decline in the growth of house prices and the impacts are more significant in the short run. Furthermore, the effects of HPR vary across different cities., where they are particularly pronounced in the central and western cities. Moreover, there was no evidence to show that the removal of HPR affected house prices as expected. This suggests that it is important to improve the sustainability of housing policies, which has significant policy implications for obtaining a well-functioning housing market.

scholarly journals Untangling the nonlinear “knots” of UK’s housing prices

2019 ◽  
Vol 46 (5) ◽  
pp. 1083-1103
Author(s):  
Constantinos Alexiou ◽  
Sofoklis Vogiazas
Keyword(s):  
Housing Market ◽  
House Prices ◽  
Housing Prices ◽  
Positive Association ◽  
Research Area ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Nonlinear Ardl ◽  
Long Run ◽  
Short Run ◽  
The Uk

Purpose Housing prices in the UK offer an inspiring, yet a complex and under-explored research area. The purpose of this paper is to investigate the critical factors that affect UK’s housing prices. Design/methodology/approach The authors utilize the recently developed nonlinear ARDL approach of Shin et al. (2014) over the period 1969–2016. Findings The authors find that both the long-run and short-run impact of the price-to-rent (PTR) ratio and credit-to-GDP ratio on house prices (HP) is asymmetric whilst ambiguous results are established for mortgage rates, industrial production and equities. Apart from the novel framework of analysis, this study also establishes a positive association between HP and the PTR ratio which suggests a speculative behaviour and could imply the formation of a housing bubble. Originality/value It is the first study for the UK housing market that explores the underlying fundamental relationships by looking at nonlinearities hence, allowing HP to be tied by asymmetric relationships in the long as well as in the short run. Modelling the inherent nonlinearities enhances significantly the understanding of UK housing market which can prove useful for policymaking and forecasting purposes.

scholarly journals HOUSING POLICIES IN SINGAPORE: EVALUATION OF RECENT PROPOSALS AND RECOMMENDATIONS FOR REFORM

2014 ◽  
Vol 59 (03) ◽  
pp. 1450025 ◽  
Author(s):  
SOCK-YONG PHANG ◽  
DAVID LEE ◽  
ALAN CHEONG ◽  
KOK-FAI PHOON ◽  
KAROL WEE
Keyword(s):  
Housing Market ◽  
House Prices ◽  
Supply And Demand ◽  
Housing Prices ◽  
Housing Affordability ◽  
Property Taxes ◽  
Housing Supply ◽  
Housing Policies ◽  
Global Liquidity ◽  
The Government

The Singapore housing market is unusual in its high homeownership rate, the dominance of HDB housing, and the extensive intervention of the government in regulating housing supply and demand in both the HDB and private housing sectors. Recent rapid population increases in a low interest rate and high global liquidity environment has resulted in accelerated house prices increases in Singapore. Earlier this year, the government launched "Our Singapore Conversation" of which discussion on housing policies constitutes one major component. This "conversation" comes in the wake of several consecutive rounds of measures to stabilize housing prices using various instruments. This paper evaluates the main policy changes proposed and makes recommendations for housing market reforms: (i) the government need to clarify goals of housing policies and make available more detailed data on the foreign component of our population for better analysis of housing markets; (ii) the housing supply regime should target an overall effective vacancy rate that encompasses both the Housing and Development Board (HDB) and private sector; (iii) policy makers need to monitor carefully excess demand indicators for housing in addition to housing affordability indicators over the entire spectrum of incomes and household types; (iv) housing REITs should be established to provide an alternative investment option as well as to develop an efficient and affordable rental sector; and (v) in addition to macroprudential measures, owner-occupancy requirements and fiscal measures such as stamp duties and property taxes could be further utilized to reduce the foreign demand for Singapore housing and real estate.

scholarly journals SYSTEMATIC ANALYSIS OF AFFORDABLE HOUSING DEVELOPMENT AND PRICING STRUCTURE IN SHENZHEN, CHINA

2015 ◽  
Vol 19 (1) ◽  
pp. 58-65 ◽  
Author(s):  
Chun Pong SING ◽  
Peter E. D. LOVE ◽  
Wing Hong FUNG ◽  
Yun Zi HE
Keyword(s):  
Housing Policy ◽  
Affordable Housing ◽  
House Prices ◽  
Housing Prices ◽  
Housing Development ◽  
Chinese Government ◽  
Systematic Analysis ◽  
Middle Income ◽  
The Government ◽  
Low And Middle Income

As a result of urban housing reform in China, it has become increasingly difficult for low and middle income families to purchase a house. In response to the growing demand for affordable housing, the Chinese Government has developed a specific housing policy to enable families to purchase properties from the private sector. The pricing mechanism of such housing is completely based on the family affordability and the profit margin of developers. To ensure the provision of housing for low and middle-income families, the future trend of affordable housing prices has become a concern for developers, consumers and may adversely influence the implementation of the current national housing policy. In this paper a systematic analysis of affordable housing development and its pricing structure is undertaken for the city of Shenzhen. As information pertaining to the factors influencing house prices is imperfect, a Grey model, which requires a limited amount of data to reflect unknown behavior, is constructed to provide a forecast for affordable house pricing. The analysis indicates that the government should adjust their current affordable housing policy to accommodate the forecasted upward trend in house prices.

scholarly journals Crises in the Housing Market: Causes, Consequences, and Policy Lessons

2019 ◽  
Author(s):  
Carlos Garriga ◽  
Aaron Hedlund
Keyword(s):  
Financial Crisis ◽  
Housing Market ◽  
House Prices ◽  
House Price ◽  
The United States ◽  
Policy Implications ◽  
Mortgage Debt ◽  
Economic Implications ◽  
Net Worth ◽  
Wide Range

The global financial crisis of 2007–2009 helped usher in a stronger consensus about the central role that housing plays in shaping economic activity, particularly during large boom and bust episodes. The latest research regards the causes, consequences, and policy implications of housing crises with a broad focus that includes empirical and structural analysis, insights from the 2000s experience in the United States, and perspectives from around the globe. Even with the significant degree of heterogeneity in legal environments, institutions, and economic fundamentals over time and across countries, several common themes emerge. Research indicates that fundamentals such as productivity, income, and demographics play an important role in generating sustained movements in house prices. While these forces can also contribute to boom-bust episodes, periods of large house price swings often reflect an evolving housing premium caused by financial innovation and shifts in expectations, which are in turn amplified by changes to the liquidity of homes. Regarding credit, the latest evidence indicates that expansions in lending to marginal borrowers via the subprime market may not be entirely to blame for the run-up in mortgage debt and prices that preceded the 2007–2009 financial crisis. Instead, the expansion in credit manifested by lower mortgage rates was broad-based and caused borrowers across a wide range of incomes and credit scores to dramatically increase their mortgage debt. To whatever extent changing beliefs about future housing appreciation may have contributed to higher realized house price growth in the 2000s, it appears that neither borrowers nor lenders anticipated the subsequent collapse in house prices. However, expectations about future credit conditions—including the prospect of rising interest rates—may have contributed to the downturn. For macroeconomists and those otherwise interested in the broader economic implications of the housing market, a growing body of evidence combining micro data and structural modeling finds that large swings in house prices can produce large disruptions to consumption, the labor market, and output. Central to this transmission is the composition of household balance sheets—not just the amount of net worth, but also how that net worth is allocated between short term liquid assets, illiquid housing wealth, and long-term defaultable mortgage debt. By shaping the incentive to default, foreclosure laws have a profound ex-ante effect on the supply of credit as well as on the ex-post economic response to large shocks that affect households’ degree of financial distress. On the policy front, research finds mixed results for some of the crisis-related interventions implemented in the U.S. while providing guidance for future measures should another housing bust of similar or greater magnitude reoccur. Lessons are also provided for the development of macroprudential policy aimed at preventing such a future crisis without unduly constraining economic performance in good times.

Institutional Environment and Housing Conditions in the European Union

10.4335/56 ◽  
2009 ◽  
Vol 6 (3) ◽  
pp. 287-309
Author(s):  
Tjaša Oplotnik
Keyword(s):  
European Union ◽  
Great Britain ◽  
Housing Market ◽  
Housing Policy ◽  
Housing Stock ◽  
Housing Quality ◽  
Individual Member ◽  
The European Union ◽  
Housing Policies ◽  
Member States

There is no housing policy at the level of the European Union. Therefore, it is the domain of national options. There are also big differences between individual Member States. Despite that, the basic feature of the housing policies has been privatisation in most European countries over the last twenty years. It means transferring the responsibility for housing provision from the state to the market and formation of financial networks within which an individual can provide his or her housing. In nearly all EU Member States, including Slovenia, a major volume of selective allocation of housing construction for the market and a higher level of housing quality are noticeable. The purpose of this paper is to present the housing policies and the housing market conditions in Slovenia, Great Britain, Germany, Sweden and Spain. On the basis of the comparative analysis of the selected countries, we tried to present characteristics, differences or similarities in the housing standard. They are reflected in the quality, availability and accessibility of the housing stock. KEY WORDS: • housing market • housing policy • quality • availability • accessibility • housing stock • Slovenia • Great Britain • Germany • Sweden • Spain

Does Tourism Contribute to Real Estate Boom? A DSGE Modeling in Small Open Economy

2020 ◽  
Vol 45 (1) ◽  
pp. 257-279
Author(s):  
Hongru Zhang ◽  
Yang Yang
Keyword(s):  
Real Estate ◽  
Housing Market ◽  
Open Economy ◽  
Driving Forces ◽  
House Prices ◽  
Small Open Economy ◽  
Policy Implications ◽  
Tourism Demand ◽  
Inbound Tourism ◽  
Dynamic Stochastic

This article aims to investigate the relationship between inbound tourism and housing market along with the recent boom in Icelandic real estate sector, in which both house and rental prices have been rising dramatically. To this end, we construct a small open economy dynamic stochastic general equilibrium model enclosing a tourism sector and a housing market with owner-occupied and rental sections. The simulation results unveil a transmission channel that indicates the higher inbound tourism demand raises both house prices and rental prices. Variance decomposition and historical decomposition show that both inbound tourism demand shock and manufacturing technology shock are the key driving forces of the fluctuations of Icelandic house prices, consumption, and investment, whereas housing preference shock plays the most important role in determining the volatility of rental prices. The policy implications indicate that any shocks to tourism could easily spillover to housing market dynamics and aggregate fluctuations.

scholarly journals Cyclical and structural change in the UK housing market

2015 ◽  
Vol 8 (1) ◽  
pp. 85-103 ◽  
Author(s):  
Michael White
Keyword(s):  
Financial Crisis ◽  
Interest Rates ◽  
Housing Market ◽  
Money Supply ◽  
House Prices ◽  
Mortgage Lending ◽  
Market Liquidity ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Factors Affecting ◽  
Short Run

Purpose – This paper aims to examine factors affecting house prices separating cyclical and structural influences. In addition to considering the role of income and interest rates, it examines whether access to a key source of liquidity, mortgage finance, could affect the long-term behaviour of the market rather than being a short run impact. In addition, the paper considers whether the effects of mortgage funding and the financial crisis affect all regions equally or whether there exist particular differences across regions of the UK. Design/methodology/approach – Using quarterly time series data from 1983q1 to 2011q2, the paper employs a Johansen cointegration approach to identify the long-run (permanent) and short-run (transitory) factors affecting house prices both at national and regional levels. It identifies whether there is a separate influence for mortgage lending from interest rates and general money market liquidity, as captured by money supply M3, and whether these effects are permanent or temporary. The paper employs impulse response functions to examine house price evolution due to innovations in mortgage lending and quantifies these effects with and without the financial crisis. Findings – The findings indicate that real personal disposable income, mortgage market liquidity, interest rates and money supply as well as housing stock supply impact house prices permanently with the expected signs. The findings are broadly consistent at national and regional level, although there are some significant regional variations in results. The mean reversion of the housing markets is captured via the error correction term which is significant at the national level and in all but three regions. Impulse response functions show how house prices respond to shocks in mortgage lending and how this varies with and without a financial crisis. Research limitations/implications – The importance of mortgage lending to the housing market is a clear result from the research in addition to income, interest rate and money supply effects. One implication is that factors affecting mortgage lending supply can impact the housing market in both the short and long run. Practical implications – Given the significance of mortgage finance for house price evolution, the paper discusses how the Help-to-Buy policy may help to overcome the limitations created by the reaction of the mortgage lending sector to the financial crisis. Social implications – Access to homeownership has been limited by greater downpayment constraints introduced by lenders since 2008/2009. Policies that reduce these constraints may enable households to change to the type of tenure they prefer. Originality/value – The paper identifies the importance of mortgage lending for the housing market both nationally and regionally using an econometric approach that quantifies the role of fundamentals in both the long and short run.

scholarly journals Is the Australian housing market in a bubble?

2018 ◽  
Vol 13 (1) ◽  
pp. 77-95 ◽  
Author(s):  
Justine Wang ◽  
Alla Koblyakova ◽  
Piyush Tiwari ◽  
John S. Croucher
Keyword(s):  
Interest Rates ◽  
Housing Market ◽  
House Prices ◽  
National Level ◽  
Policy Implications ◽  
Data Set ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Housing Boom ◽  
Housing Bubbles

Purpose This paper aims to explore principal drivers affecting prices in the Australian housing market, aiming to detect the presence of housing bubbles within it. The data set analyzed covers the past two decades, thereby including the period of the most recent housing boom between 2012 and 2015. Design/methodology/approach The paper describes the application of combined enhanced rigorous econometric frameworks, such as ordinary least square (OLS), Granger causality and the Vector Error Correction Model (VECM) framework, to provide an in-depth understanding of house price dynamics and bubbles in Australia. Findings The empirical results presented reveal that Australian house prices are driven primarily by four key factors: mortgage interest rates, consumer sentiment, the Australian S&P/ASX 200 stock market index and unemployment rates. It finds that these four key drivers have long-term equilibrium in relation to house prices, and any short-term disequilibrium always self-corrects over the long term because of economic forces. The existence of long-term equilibrium in the housing market suggests it is unlikely to be in a bubble (Diba and Grossman, 1988; Flood and Hodrick, 1986). Originality/value The foremost contribution of this paper is that it is the first rigorous study of housing bubbles in Australia at the national level. Additionally, the data set renders the study of particular interest because it incorporates an analysis of the most recent housing boom (2012-2015). The policy implications from the study arise from the discussion of how best to balance monetary policy, fiscal policy and macroeconomic policy to optimize the steady and stable growth of the Australian housing market, and from its reconsideration of affordability schemes and related policies designed to incentivize construction and the involvement of complementary industries associated with property.

scholarly journals Exploring the Relationships among Exchange Rate, Foreign Investment and Economic Growth Using Time Series Econometric Approaches: The Case of China’s Guangdong Province

2020 ◽  
pp. 11-23
Author(s):  
Ming-Lu Wu
Keyword(s):  
Economic Growth ◽  
Time Series ◽  
Exchange Rate ◽  
Policy Implications ◽  
Future Research ◽  
Chinese Government ◽  
Annual Data ◽  
Causality Test ◽  
Long Run ◽  
Short Run

As the Chinese government has been trying to promote the Belt and Road Initiatives and enhance the openness of its economic development, it is important to study and understand the depreciation/appreciation mechanism of Chinese yuan (CNY), especially how this affects or is affected by some key economic growth and openness measures like gross domestic product (GDP) and foreign direct investment (FDI). This paper is just to examine the short-run dynamics and long-run equilibrium relationships among the three important macroeconomic time series of CNY exchange rate, FDI and GDP. Twenty-year annual data from 1996 to 2015 for the top ten cities (in terms of GDP) in Guangdong, one of the economically influential provinces in China, are specifically collected for the study. The panel unit-root test, Johansen-Fisher cointegration test, Granger causality test, and vector autoregression (VAR) model are applied to analyze the data for exploring long-run relationships. Vector error correction (VEC) model and block exogeneity Wald test are also adopted to examine the short-run dynamics. Key research results include that, there is a long-run cointegration relationship among exchange rate, FDI and GDP, FDI and GDP are the long-run Granger causes of exchange rate such that FDI positively affects exchange rate whle GDP negatively influence exchange rate, and FDI is also the short-run Granger cause of exchange rate but the short-run relationship is negative. Discussions, and policy implications and future research directions are presented finally.

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