scholarly journals Investigating the Climate-Related Risk of Forest Fires for Mediterranean Islands’ Blue Economy

2021 ◽  
Vol 13 (18) ◽  
pp. 10004
Author(s):  
Valentina Bacciu ◽  
Maria Hatzaki ◽  
Anna Karali ◽  
Adeline Cauchy ◽  
Christos Giannakopoulos ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Forest Fires ◽  
Climate Change Impacts ◽  
Mediterranean Islands ◽  
Intergovernmental Panel ◽  
Hazard Exposure ◽  
Mitigation And Adaptation ◽  
Policies And Measures ◽  
Blue Economy ◽  
The Impact

The Mediterranean islands’ blue economy and, more specifically, the tourism sector, largely regulate Europe’s gross product. Climate change threatens the ecological, societal, and economic sustainability of the islands in many ways, with increasing wildfires making up one of the most critical components of the climate change impacts on tourism. Here, we aim to identify and assess forest fire vulnerability and risk due to climate change for seven Mediterranean islands through the application of the “impact chain” conceptual framework. The backbone of this approach requires the integration of quantitative and qualitative data according to the three main risk components sensu the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), i.e., hazard, exposure, and vulnerability, with a structured participatory approach involving stakeholders and experts. Our results illustrate the islands with high potential for improvement in terms of adapting capacity and, by indicating the contribution of the different risk components, highlight the main environmental and socio-economic elements that affect the islands’ vulnerability and risk under climate change. The approach’s potentials and constraints are discussed, suggesting that the method can be handily used to point out the priorities that must be addressed by mitigation and adaptation policies and measures at the island level.

scholarly journals Sea-level rise along the Emilia-Romagna coast (Northern Italy) in 2100: scenarios and impacts

2017 ◽  
Vol 17 (12) ◽  
pp. 2271-2287 ◽  
Author(s):  
Luisa Perini ◽  
Lorenzo Calabrese ◽  
Paolo Luciani ◽  
Marco Olivieri ◽  
Gaia Galassi ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Sea Level Rise ◽  
Sea Level ◽  
Land Subsidence ◽  
Coastal Plain ◽  
River Mouth ◽  
Northern Italy ◽  
Intergovernmental Panel ◽  
Mitigation And Adaptation ◽  
The Impact

Abstract. As a consequence of climate change and land subsidence, coastal zones are directly impacted by sea-level rise. In some particular areas, the effects on the ecosystem and urbanisation are particularly enhanced. We focus on the Emilia-Romagna (E-R) coastal plain in Northern Italy, bounded by the Po river mouth to the north and by the Apennines to the south. The plain is  ∼ 130 km long and is characterised by wide areas below mean sea level, in part made up of reclaimed wetlands. In this context, several morphodynamic factors make the shore and back shore unstable. During next decades, the combined effects of land subsidence and of the sea-level rise as a result of climate change are expected to enhance the shoreline instability, leading to further retreat. The consequent loss of beaches would impact the economy of the region, which is tightly connected with tourism infrastructures. Furthermore, the loss of wetlands and dunes would threaten the ecosystem, which is crucial for the preservation of life and the environment. These specific conditions show the importance of a precise definition of the possible local impacts of the ongoing and future climate variations. The aim of this work is the characterisation of vulnerability in different sectors of the coastal plain and the recognition of the areas in which human intervention is urgently required. The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) Fifth Assessment Report (AR5) sea-level scenarios are merged with new high-resolution terrain models, current data for local subsidence and predictions of the flooding model in_CoastFlood in order to develop different scenarios for the impact of sea-level rise projected to year 2100. First, the potential land loss due to the combined effect of subsidence and sea-level rise is extrapolated. Second, the increase in floodable areas as a result of storm surges is quantitatively determined. The results are expected to support the regional mitigation and adaptation strategies designed in response to climate change.

scholarly journals Post-2020 biodiversity targets need to embrace climate change

2020 ◽  
Vol 117 (49) ◽  
pp. 30882-30891
Author(s):  
Almut Arneth ◽  
Yunne-Jai Shin ◽  
Paul Leadley ◽  
Carlo Rondinini ◽  
Elena Bukvareva ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Climate Change Mitigation ◽  
Climate Change Impacts ◽  
Biodiversity Loss ◽  
Mitigation Measures ◽  
Intergovernmental Panel ◽  
The Sustainable Development ◽  
Mitigation And Adaptation ◽  
Development Goals ◽  
Change Mitigation

Recent assessment reports by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) and the Intergovernmental Science-Policy Platform on Biodiversity and Ecosystem Services (IPBES) have highlighted the risks to humanity arising from the unsustainable use of natural resources. Thus far, land, freshwater, and ocean exploitation have been the chief causes of biodiversity loss. Climate change is projected to be a rapidly increasing additional driver for biodiversity loss. Since climate change and biodiversity loss impact human societies everywhere, bold solutions are required that integrate environmental and societal objectives. As yet, most existing international biodiversity targets have overlooked climate change impacts. At the same time, climate change mitigation measures themselves may harm biodiversity directly. The Convention on Biological Diversity’s post-2020 framework offers the important opportunity to address the interactions between climate change and biodiversity and revise biodiversity targets accordingly by better aligning these with the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change Paris Agreement and the Sustainable Development Goals. We identify the considerable number of existing and proposed post-2020 biodiversity targets that risk being severely compromised due to climate change, even if other barriers to their achievement were removed. Our analysis suggests that the next set of biodiversity targets explicitly addresses climate change-related risks since many aspirational goals will not be feasible under even lower-end projections of future warming. Adopting more flexible and dynamic approaches to conservation, rather than static goals, would allow us to respond flexibly to changes in habitats, genetic resources, species composition, and ecosystem functioning and leverage biodiversity’s capacity to contribute to climate change mitigation and adaptation.

scholarly journals The place of a socio-cultural environment in climate change discourse

2020 ◽  
Vol 3 (2) ◽  
Author(s):  
Charles Recha
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Climate Change Mitigation ◽  
Climate Change Impacts ◽  
Economic Security ◽  
Global Level ◽  
Cultural Dynamics ◽  
Intergovernmental Panel ◽  
Mitigation And Adaptation ◽  
Mitigation And Adaptation Strategies ◽  
Change Mitigation

The significance of climate change is reflected in global level efforts such as Conference of Parties and Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change reporting. The global level platform develops consensus on evidences and pathways to climate change mitigation and adaptation. Unfortunately, these efforts often lack social-cultural dynamics to climate change. This study adopted a desktop survey to establish the place of socio-cultural dynamics in climate change discourse. In this study, it is argued that socio-economic security and attributes, cultural-orientation and inter-group dimensions are key determinants to implementation of climate change programmes. To successfully design and implement climate change mitigation and adaptation strategies, first address socioeconomic securities of communities, bring on board sub-national considerations and package climate change impacts as a threat to nationalism.

scholarly journals Climate Change Impacts and Strategies for Mitigation and Adaptation in Agriculture

Atmosphere ◽  
2021 ◽  
Vol 12 (5) ◽  
pp. 545
Author(s):  
Bruce A. McCarl ◽  
Chin-Hsien Yu ◽  
Witsanu Attavanich
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Climate Change Impacts ◽  
Mitigation And Adaptation

Agriculture is highly vulnerable to climate change-induced shifts in means, variability and extremes [...]

scholarly journals Epidemic malaria and warmer temperatures in recent decades in an East African highland

2010 ◽  
Vol 278 (1712) ◽  
pp. 1661-1669 ◽  
Author(s):  
David Alonso ◽  
Menno J. Bouma ◽  
Mercedes Pascual
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
East Africa ◽  
Nonlinear Response ◽  
Climate Change Impacts ◽  
Human Model ◽  
Recent Past ◽  
East African ◽  
Highly Nonlinear ◽  
The Impact

Climate change impacts on malaria are typically assessed with scenarios for the long-term future. Here we focus instead on the recent past (1970–2003) to address whether warmer temperatures have already increased the incidence of malaria in a highland region of East Africa. Our analyses rely on a new coupled mosquito–human model of malaria, which we use to compare projected disease levels with and without the observed temperature trend. Predicted malaria cases exhibit a highly nonlinear response to warming, with a significant increase from the 1970s to the 1990s, although typical epidemic sizes are below those observed. These findings suggest that climate change has already played an important role in the exacerbation of malaria in this region. As the observed changes in malaria are even larger than those predicted by our model, other factors previously suggested to explain all of the increase in malaria may be enhancing the impact of climate change.

Gender, Forests and Climate Change

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Paloma Marcos Morezuelas
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Climate Change Mitigation ◽  
Climate Change Impacts ◽  
Forest Products ◽  
Value Chains ◽  
Adaptation Measures ◽  
Mitigation And Adaptation ◽  
Payment Schemes ◽  
Gender Lens ◽  
Change Mitigation

As users of forest products and guardians of traditional knowledge, women have always been involved in forestry. Nevertheless, their access to forest resources and benefits and participation in forest management is limited compared to mens despite the fact that trees are more important to women, who depend on them for their families food security, income generation and cooking fuel. This guide aims to facilitate the incorporation of a gender lens in climate change mitigation and adaptation operations in forests, with special attention to those framed in REDD. This guide addresses four themes value chains, environmental payment schemes, firewood and biodiversity that relate directly to 1) how climate change impacts affect women in the forest and 2) how mitigation and adaptation measures affect womens access to resources and benefits distribution.

Bias correction of extreme values of high resolution climate simulations for risk analysis.

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
luis Augusto sanabria ◽  
Xuerong Qin ◽  
Jin Li ◽  
Robert Peter Cechet
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Bias Correction ◽  
Extreme Values ◽  
The Body ◽  
Future Climate ◽  
Return Periods ◽  
Climate Conditions ◽  
Mitigation And Adaptation ◽  
Climate Simulations ◽  
The Impact

Abstract Most climatic models show that climate change affects natural perils' frequency and severity. Quantifying the impact of future climate conditions on natural hazard is essential for mitigation and adaptation planning. One crucial factor to consider when using climate simulations projections is the inherent systematic differences (bias) of the modelled data compared with observations. This bias can originate from the modelling process, the techniques used for downscaling of results, and the ensembles' intrinsic variability. Analysis of climate simulations has shown that the biases associated with these data types can be significant. Hence, it is often necessary to correct the bias before the data can be reliably used for further analysis. Natural perils are often associated with extreme climatic conditions. Analysing trends in the tail end of distributions are already complicated because noise is much more prominent than that in the mean climate. The bias of the simulations can introduce significant errors in practical applications. In this paper, we present a methodology for bias correction of climate simulated data. The technique corrects the bias in both the body and the tail of the distribution (extreme values). As an illustration, maps of the 50 and 100-year Return Period of climate simulated Forest Fire Danger Index (FFDI) in Australia are presented and compared against the corresponding observation-based maps. The results show that the algorithm can substantially improve the calculation of simulation-based Return Periods. Forthcoming work will focus on the impact of climate change on these Return Periods considering future climate conditions.

scholarly journals Producing hydrologic scenarios from raw climate model outputs using an asynchronous modelling framework

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Simon Ricard ◽  
Philippe Lucas-Picher ◽  
François Anctil
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Climate Model ◽  
Water Discharge ◽  
Climate Change Impacts ◽  
Climate Variables ◽  
Post Processing ◽  
Hydrologic Models ◽  
Simulated Climate ◽  
Meteorological Observations ◽  
The Impact

Abstract. Statistical post-processing of climate model outputs is a common hydroclimatic modelling practice aiming to produce climate scenarios that better fit in-situ observations and to produce reliable stream flows forcing calibrated hydrologic models. Such practice is however criticized for disrupting the physical consistency between simulated climate variables and affecting the trends in climate change signals imbedded within raw climate simulations. It also requires abundant good-quality meteorological observations, which are not available for many regions in the world. A simplified hydroclimatic modelling workflow is proposed to quantify the impact of climate change on water discharge without resorting to meteorological observations, nor for statistical post-processing of climate model outputs, nor for calibrating hydrologic models. By combining asynchronous hydroclimatic modelling, an alternative framework designed to construct hydrologic scenarios without resorting to meteorological observations, and quantile perturbation applied to streamflow observations, the proposed workflow produces sound and plausible hydrologic scenarios considering: (1) they preserve trends and physical consistency between simulated climate variables, (2) are implemented from a modelling cascades despite observation scarcity, and (3) support the participation of end-users in producing and interpreting climate change impacts on water resources. The proposed modelling workflow is implemented over four subcatchments of the Chaudière River, Canada, using 9 North American CORDEX simulations and a pool of lumped conceptual hydrologic models. Forced with raw climate model outputs, hydrologic models are calibrated over the reference period according to a calibration metric designed to function with temporally uncorrelated observed and simulated streamflow values. Perturbation factors are defined by relating each simulated streamflow quantiles over both reference and future periods. Hydrologic scenarios are finally produced by applying perturbation factors to available streamflow observations.

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