scholarly journals Producing hydrologic scenarios from raw climate model outputs using an asynchronous modelling framework

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Simon Ricard ◽  
Philippe Lucas-Picher ◽  
François Anctil
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Climate Model ◽  
Water Discharge ◽  
Climate Change Impacts ◽  
Climate Variables ◽  
Post Processing ◽  
Hydrologic Models ◽  
Simulated Climate ◽  
Meteorological Observations ◽  
The Impact

Abstract. Statistical post-processing of climate model outputs is a common hydroclimatic modelling practice aiming to produce climate scenarios that better fit in-situ observations and to produce reliable stream flows forcing calibrated hydrologic models. Such practice is however criticized for disrupting the physical consistency between simulated climate variables and affecting the trends in climate change signals imbedded within raw climate simulations. It also requires abundant good-quality meteorological observations, which are not available for many regions in the world. A simplified hydroclimatic modelling workflow is proposed to quantify the impact of climate change on water discharge without resorting to meteorological observations, nor for statistical post-processing of climate model outputs, nor for calibrating hydrologic models. By combining asynchronous hydroclimatic modelling, an alternative framework designed to construct hydrologic scenarios without resorting to meteorological observations, and quantile perturbation applied to streamflow observations, the proposed workflow produces sound and plausible hydrologic scenarios considering: (1) they preserve trends and physical consistency between simulated climate variables, (2) are implemented from a modelling cascades despite observation scarcity, and (3) support the participation of end-users in producing and interpreting climate change impacts on water resources. The proposed modelling workflow is implemented over four subcatchments of the Chaudière River, Canada, using 9 North American CORDEX simulations and a pool of lumped conceptual hydrologic models. Forced with raw climate model outputs, hydrologic models are calibrated over the reference period according to a calibration metric designed to function with temporally uncorrelated observed and simulated streamflow values. Perturbation factors are defined by relating each simulated streamflow quantiles over both reference and future periods. Hydrologic scenarios are finally produced by applying perturbation factors to available streamflow observations.

Including the Impact of Climate Change in Offshore and Onshore Metocean Design Criteria to Ensure Asset Robustness

2019 ◽  
Author(s):  
Alison Brown ◽  
Ag Stephens ◽  
Ben Rabb ◽  
Richenda Connell ◽  
Jon Upton
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Oil And Gas ◽  
Climate Model ◽  
Climate Change Impacts ◽  
Life Time ◽  
Baseline Period ◽  
Risk Level ◽  
Design Criteria ◽  
Impact Of Climate Change ◽  
The Impact

Abstract While a significant amount of attention surrounding climate change has focused on mitigation of the causes, there is growing interest and need to adapt to physical climate change impacts which are already being experienced and in anticipation of future changes. Changes in climate have the potential to create hazards in the oil and gas sector although vulnerabilities to these changes are often specific to asset types. Preparedness for climate change can help to reduce damaging effects from acute as well as chronic climate changes. This paper focuses on a simple approach developed to ensure that climate change is included in engineering design, by considering climate change risk and the uncertainty inherent in future projections of climate change into design requirements. It involves using the best available climate change data and an understanding of the relationships between asset performance and environmental (climate-related) conditions. The risk level associated with climate change for a specific asset is determined by consideration of the severity and confidence level of the climate change hazard, the exposure of the asset to the hazard, the vulnerability of the exposed asset to the hazard and the capacity of the asset to adapt to the hazard. The method considers the risk levels, the selection of climate model data, the ‘natural variability’ baseline period to be applied to the climate change data, the climate change model validation, the asset life time and specifically how to modify metocean design criteria to account for climate change to ensure both the ‘start of life’ criteria (typically derived from observed and hindcast data) and ‘end of life’ criteria (including an estimate for the impact of climate change at the end of the asset life) meet the required annual probability of exceedance.

scholarly journals Implications of climate model biases and downscaling on crop model simulated climate change impacts

2017 ◽  
Vol 88 ◽  
pp. 63-75 ◽  
Author(s):  
D. Cammarano ◽  
M. Rivington ◽  
K.B. Matthews ◽  
D.G. Miller ◽  
G. Bellocchi
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Climate Model ◽  
Climate Change Impacts ◽  
Crop Model ◽  
Model Biases ◽  
Simulated Climate ◽  
Simulated Climate Change

scholarly journals Exploring an Alternative Configuration of the Hydroclimatic Modeling Chain, Based on the Notion of Asynchronous Objective Functions

Water ◽  
2019 ◽  
Vol 11 (10) ◽  
pp. 2012 ◽  
Author(s):  
Simon Ricard ◽  
Jean-Daniel Sylvain ◽  
François Anctil
Keyword(s):  
Climate Model ◽  
Regional Climate ◽  
Hydrologic Model ◽  
Climate Variables ◽  
Objective Functions ◽  
Sequence Of Events ◽  
Simulated Climate ◽  
The Common ◽  
Meteorological Observations ◽  
Alternative Configuration

This study explores an alternative configuration of the hydroclimatic modeling chain around the notion of asynchronous objective-function (AOF). AOFs are calibration criteria purposely ignoring the correlation between observed and simulated variables. Within the suggested alternative configuration, the hydrologic model is being forced and calibrated with bias corrected climate variables over the reference period instead of historical meteorological observations. Consequently, the alternative configuration circumvent the redundant usage of climate observation operated within conventional configurations for statistical post-processing of simulated climate variables and calibration of the hydrologic model. AOFs optimize statistical properties of hydroclimatic projections, preserving the sequence of events imbedded within the forcing climate model. Both conventional and alternative configurations of the hydroclimatic modeling chain are implemented over a mid-size nivo-pluvial catchment located in the Saint-Lawrence Valley, Canada. The WaSiM-ETH hydrological model is forced with a bias-corrected member of the Canadian Regional Climate Model Large Ensemble (CRCM5-LE). Five AOFs are designed and compared to the common Kling-Gupta efficiency (KGE) metric. Forced with observations, AOFs tend to provide a hydrologic response comparable to KGE during the nival season and moderately degraded during the pluvial season. Using AOFs, the alternative configuration of the hydroclimatic modeling chain provides more coherent hydrologic projections relative to a conventional configuration.

scholarly journals Climate Change impacts the <i>Water Highway</i> project in Morocco

2019 ◽  
Author(s):  
Nabil El Moçayd ◽  
Suchul Kang ◽  
Elfatih A. B. Eltahir
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Climate Model ◽  
Regional Climate ◽  
Climate Change Impacts ◽  
Study Region ◽  
Global Circulation ◽  
Global Circulation Models ◽  
The North ◽  
Local Water ◽  
The Impact

Abstract. The hydrology of Morocco is characterized by a significant spatial variability. Precipitation follows a sharp gradient decreasing from the North to the South. In order to redistribute water, a project is proposed to transfer 860 million m3 per year from the wet north to the arid southern regions, {Water Highway}. The present study aims to address the viability of the project including the effects of climate change in the watersheds located in the North. We perform Regional Climate Model (RCMs) simulations over the study region using boundary conditions from five different global circulation models (GCMs) and following two emissions scenarios RCP4.5 (with mitigation) and RCP8.5 (business as usual). The impact on precipitation is assessed and the decrease of available water quantity is estimated. Under RCP8.5 the project is likely unfeasible. However, under the RCP4.5 a rescaled version of this project may be feasible depending on how much water is allocated to satisfy the local water demand.

scholarly journals Climate change impacts on the Water Highway project in Morocco

2020 ◽  
Vol 24 (3) ◽  
pp. 1467-1483 ◽  
Author(s):  
Nabil El Moçayd ◽  
Suchul Kang ◽  
Elfatih A. B. Eltahir
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Climate Model ◽  
Regional Climate ◽  
Climate Change Impacts ◽  
Study Region ◽  
Available Water ◽  
Global Circulation Models ◽  
The North ◽  
The Impact ◽  
Highway Project

Abstract. The hydrology of Morocco is characterized by significant spatial variability. Precipitation follows a sharp gradient, decreasing from the north to the south. In order to redistribute the available water, a project has been proposed to transfer 860×106 m3 yr−1 from the wet north to the arid southern regions, namely the “Water Highway” project. The present study aims to address the viability of the project after accounting for the impacts of climate change in the watersheds located in the north. We perform regional climate model (RCM) simulations over the study region using boundary conditions from five different global circulation models (GCMs) and assuming two different emissions scenarios – RCP4.5 (with mitigation) and RCP8.5 (business as usual). The impact on precipitation and temperature are assessed, and the decrease in the available water quantity is estimated. Under RCP8.5, the project is likely not feasible. However, under the RCP4.5, a rescaled version of this project may be feasible depending on how much water is allocated to satisfy the local water demand in the north.

On the Hydrologic Adjustment of Climate-Model Projections: The Potential Pitfall of Potential Evapotranspiration

2011 ◽  
Vol 15 (1) ◽  
pp. 1-14 ◽  
Author(s):  
P. C. D. Milly ◽  
Krista A. Dunne
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Climate Models ◽  
Climate Model ◽  
Potential Evapotranspiration ◽  
Climate Change Impacts ◽  
Hydrologic Model ◽  
Energy Budgets ◽  
Drought Indices ◽  
Hydrologic Models ◽  
Runoff Change

Abstract Hydrologic models often are applied to adjust projections of hydroclimatic change that come from climate models. Such adjustment includes climate-bias correction, spatial refinement (“downscaling”), and consideration of the roles of hydrologic processes that were neglected in the climate model. Described herein is a quantitative analysis of the effects of hydrologic adjustment on the projections of runoff change associated with projected twenty-first-century climate change. In a case study including three climate models and 10 river basins in the contiguous United States, the authors find that relative (i.e., fractional or percentage) runoff change computed with hydrologic adjustment more often than not was less positive (or, equivalently, more negative) than what was projected by the climate models. The dominant contributor to this decrease in runoff was a ubiquitous change in runoff (median −11%) caused by the hydrologic model’s apparent amplification of the climate-model-implied growth in potential evapotranspiration. Analysis suggests that the hydrologic model, on the basis of the empirical, temperature-based modified Jensen–Haise formula, calculates a change in potential evapotranspiration that is typically 3 times the change implied by the climate models, which explicitly track surface energy budgets. In comparison with the amplification of potential evapotranspiration, central tendencies of other contributions from hydrologic adjustment (spatial refinement, climate-bias adjustment, and process refinement) were relatively small. The authors’ findings highlight the need for caution when projecting changes in potential evapotranspiration for use in hydrologic models or drought indices to evaluate climate-change impacts on water.

scholarly journals Climate change impacts on potential maize yields in Gambella Region, Ethiopia

2021 ◽  
Vol 21 (2) ◽  
Author(s):  
Azeb W. Degife ◽  
Florian Zabel ◽  
Wolfram Mauser
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Climate Model ◽  
Total Yield ◽  
Climate Change Impacts ◽  
Future Climate ◽  
Yield Potential ◽  
Limiting Factor ◽  
Climate Conditions ◽  
Rcp 8.5 ◽  
The Impact

AbstractChanging climate conditions are supposed to have particularly strong impacts on agricultural production in the tropics with strong implications on food security. Ethiopia’s economy is profoundly dominated by agriculture, contributing to around 40% of the gross domestic product. Thereby, Ethiopia is one of the most vulnerable countries to the impact of climate change and has a wide gap in regional climate change impact studies. In this study, we systematically investigate climate change impacts on yields for the Gambella region in Ethiopia, exemplarily for maize. Here, we show how yields change until 2100 for RCPs 2.6, 4.5, and 8.5 from a climate model ensemble under rainfed and irrigated conditions. While rainfed yields decrease by 15% and 14% respectively for RCPs 2.6 and 4.5, yields decrease by up to 32% under RCP 8.5. Except for RCP 8.5, yields are not further decreasing after 2040–2069. We found that temperature increase, changing soil water availability, and atmospheric CO2 concentration have different effects on the simulated yield potential. Our results demonstrate the dominance of heat response under future climate conditions in the tropical Gambella region, contributing to 85% of total yield changes. Accordingly, irrigation will lose effectiveness for increasing yield when temperature becomes the limiting factor. CO2, on the other hand, contributes positively to yield changes by 8.9% for RCP 8.5. For all scenarios, the growing period is shorted due to increasing temperature by up to 29 days for RCP 8.5. Our results suggest that new varieties with higher growing degree days are primarily required to the region for adapting to future climate conditions.

scholarly journals The impact of climate change in wheat and barley yields in the Iberian Peninsula

2021 ◽  
Vol 11 (1) ◽  
Author(s):  
Virgílio A. Bento ◽  
Andreia F. S. Ribeiro ◽  
Ana Russo ◽  
Célia M. Gouveia ◽  
Rita M. Cardoso ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Iberian Peninsula ◽  
Climate Model ◽  
Global Climate Models ◽  
Maximum Temperature ◽  
Historical Period ◽  
Early Winter ◽  
Impact Of Climate Change ◽  
The Impact ◽  
Spring Maximum

AbstractThe impact of climate change on wheat and barley yields in two regions of the Iberian Peninsula is here examined. Regression models are developed by using EURO-CORDEX regional climate model (RCM) simulations, forced by ERA-Interim, with monthly maximum and minimum air temperatures and monthly accumulated precipitation as predictors. Additionally, RCM simulations forced by different global climate models for the historical period (1972–2000) and mid-of-century (2042–2070; under the two emission scenarios RCP4.5 and RCP8.5) are analysed. Results point to different regional responses of wheat and barley. In the southernmost regions, results indicate that the main yield driver is spring maximum temperature, while further north a larger dependence on spring precipitation and early winter maximum temperature is observed. Climate change seems to induce severe yield losses in the southern region, mainly due to an increase in spring maximum temperature. On the contrary, a yield increase is projected in the northern regions, with the main driver being early winter warming that stimulates earlier growth. These results warn on the need to implement sustainable agriculture policies, and on the necessity of regional adaptation strategies.

High-Resolution Climate Change Impact Analysis on Expected Future Water Availability in the Upper Jordan Catchment and the Middle East

2014 ◽  
Vol 15 (4) ◽  
pp. 1517-1531 ◽  
Author(s):  
Gerhard Smiatek ◽  
Harald Kunstmann ◽  
Andreas Heckl
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
High Resolution ◽  
Water Availability ◽  
Impact Analysis ◽  
River Flow ◽  
Climate Model ◽  
Mesoscale Model ◽  
Global Climate Model ◽  
Full Range ◽  
The Impact

Abstract The impact of climate change on the future water availability of the upper Jordan River (UJR) and its tributaries Dan, Snir, and Hermon located in the eastern Mediterranean is evaluated by a highly resolved distributed approach with the fifth-generation Pennsylvania State University–NCAR Mesoscale Model (MM5) run at 18.6- and 6.2-km resolution offline coupled with the Water Flow and Balance Simulation Model (WaSiM). The MM5 was driven with NCEP reanalysis for 1971–2000 and with Hadley Centre Coupled Model, version 3 (HadCM3), GCM forcings for 1971–2099. Because only one regional–global climate model combination was applied, the results may not give the full range of possible future projections. To describe the Dan spring behavior, the hydrological model was extended by a bypass approach to allow the fast discharge components of the Snir to enter the Dan catchment. Simulation results for the period 1976–2000 reveal that the coupled system was able to reproduce the observed discharge rates in the partially karstic complex terrain to a reasonable extent with the high-resolution 6.2-km meteorological input only. The performed future climate simulations show steadily rising temperatures with 2.2 K above the 1976–2000 mean for the period 2031–60 and 3.5 K for the period 2070–99. Precipitation trends are insignificant until the middle of the century, although a decrease of approximately 12% is simulated. For the end of the century, a reduction in rainfall ranging between 10% and 35% can be expected. Discharge in the UJR is simulated to decrease by 12% until 2060 and by 26% until 2099, both related to the 1976–2000 mean. The discharge decrease is associated with a lower number of high river flow years.

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