scholarly journals Simulation of Water Resources Carrying Capacity in Xiong’an New Area Based on System Dynamics Model

Water ◽  
2019 ◽  
Vol 11 (5) ◽  
pp. 1085 ◽  
Author(s):  
Boyang Sun ◽  
Xiaohua Yang
Keyword(s):  
Water Resources ◽  
Water Supply ◽  
System Dynamics ◽  
Carrying Capacity ◽  
Environmental Governance ◽  
Supply And Demand ◽  
Groundwater Overdraft ◽  
Water Resources Carrying Capacity ◽  
Water Supply And Demand ◽  
Regional Water

In order to comprehensively evaluate the water resources carrying capacity in Xiong’an New Area, a system dynamics (SD) model was established to evaluate the regional water resources carrying capacity, for which several scenarios were designed: the original development scenario, the accelerated industrialization scenario, the environmental governance scenario, and the optimization development scenario. The results show that, compared with the original development scenario, the water resources carrying capacity in Xiong’an New Area can be improved in other scenarios, but a water supply and demand gap will be generated due to the lack of groundwater overdraft and a water transfer project. In 2026, under the accelerated industrialization scenario, the population carrying capacity will be 2.652 million, and the water supply and demand gap will be 1.13 × 108 m3; under the environmental governance scenario, the population carrying capacity will be 2.36 million, and the water supply and demand gap will be 0.44 × 108 m3; under the optimal development scenario, the population carrying capacity will be 2.654 million, and since the supply of water resources will be greater than the demand, there will not be a gap between supply and demand, making it the most feasible scenario to effectively alleviate the tension between industry restructuring, environmental management, and water resources development and utilization. The findings of this study can provide reference and decision support for optimizing regional water resources allocation and enhancing water resources carrying capacity in Xiong’an New Area.

scholarly journals Evaluation and Prediction of Regional Water Resources Carrying Capacity: A Case Study of Shandong Province

2017 ◽  
Vol 7 (1) ◽  
pp. 21 ◽  
Author(s):  
Hongyan Liao ◽  
Yuabiao Zhang ◽  
Zhifeng Chen ◽  
Zexin Meng
Keyword(s):  
Water Resources ◽  
Carrying Capacity ◽  
Arid Regions ◽  
Evaluation Model ◽  
Supply And Demand ◽  
Arima Model ◽  
Shandong Province ◽  
Water Resources Carrying Capacity ◽  
Regional Water

Growing pressure on the world’s water resources is having major impacts on us. In this paper, we discuss on water resources carrying capacity. We have a case study of Shandong Province which is one of the most arid regions in China. Considering the dynamics of water supply and demand, we combine the Falkenmark indicator and the binary dynamics model to establish an evaluation model of regional water resources carrying capacity. According to the result of our model, Shandong Province is heavily exploited. The per capita water resources in Shandong province were less than 300 m3 in the past ten years. The increasing destruction and increasing waste make the situation even worse. Then ARIMA model and BP neural network is combined to propose a prediction model. We use it to predict the supply and demand of water resources in Shandong Province in the next 15 years

scholarly journals Forecast-based analysis for regional water supply and demand relationship by hybrid Markov chain models: a case study of Urumqi, China

2016 ◽  
Vol 18 (5) ◽  
pp. 905-918 ◽  
Author(s):  
B. Wang ◽  
L. Liu ◽  
G. H. Huang ◽  
W. Li ◽  
Y. L. Xie
Keyword(s):  
Markov Chain ◽  
Water Resources ◽  
Markov Model ◽  
Water Supply ◽  
Supply And Demand ◽  
Clear Understanding ◽  
Chain Model ◽  
Water Utilization ◽  
Water Supply And Demand ◽  
Regional Water

A clear understanding of regional water supply and demand trend is crucial for proper water resources planning and management in water-deficient areas, especially for Northwest China. In this study, three hybrid stochastic models (Markov chain model, unbiased Grey-Markov model and Markov model based on quadratic programming) were developed separately for predicating the available water resources, water demand, and water utilization structure in Urumqi. The novelty of this study arises from the following aspects: (1) compared with other models, the developed models would provide ideal forecasting results with small samples and poor information; (2) this study synthetically took into account water supply and demand, water utilization structure trend; (3) the prediction results were expressed as interval values for reducing the forecasting risk when carrying out water resources system planning and operational decisions. Analysis of water supply and demand in Urumqi under different reuse ratios was also conducted based on the forecasting results. The results would help managers and policy-makers to have a clear understanding of regional water supply and demand trend as well as the water utilization structure in the future.

Study on Water Resources Efficiency with the Regional Water Resources Carrying Capacity into Consideration

2018 ◽  
Vol 06 (04) ◽  
pp. 1850023 ◽  
Author(s):  
Xifeng WANG
Keyword(s):  
Water Resources ◽  
Carrying Capacity ◽  
High Water ◽  
Coastal Regions ◽  
Coordinated Development ◽  
Policy Makers ◽  
Water Resources Carrying Capacity ◽  
Decision Making Unit ◽  
High Level ◽  
Regional Water

Most of the existing studies on regional water resources efficiency only consider the total regional water use while ignoring the regional endowment. Therefore, it is essential to introduce the water resources carrying capacity into the study. Given that data envelopment analysis (DEA) cannot compare the time series of a single decision-making unit, we employ the DEA-window analysis to study China’s water resources efficiency during 2005–2012 with the regional carrying capacity being considered, and analyze the spatiotemporal evolution. The study shows that such efficiency has increased from 0.71 in 2005 to 0.79 in 2012. High water resources efficiency is observed in Liaoning, Tibet, Yunnan, Beijing, Tianjin, Shanghai, Jiangsu, Zhejiang, Guangdong and Sichuan, where the output levels and utilization ratios of water resources are positively correlated. Low water resources efficiency is observed in Henan, Shaanxi, Gansu, Ningxia and Xinjiang which feature high-level utilization and low carrying capacity of water resources. As for regional water resources efficiency, eastern and southern coastal regions rank first, followed by Northeast China and northern coastal regions, southwest and northwest regions of China and lastly the middle reaches of the Yellow and Yangtze Rivers. Therefore, policy-makers should not only accord the regional development with carrying capacity, but also enhance cross-regional industrial cooperation for coordinated development.

Evaluation of Water Resources Carrying Capacity Based on Fuzzy Comprehensive Evaluation on River Basin in Arid Zone

2010 ◽  
Vol 113-116 ◽  
pp. 488-494 ◽  
Author(s):  
Yue Jian Wang ◽  
Guang Yang ◽  
Hai Liang Xu
Keyword(s):  
Water Resources ◽  
River Basin ◽  
Carrying Capacity ◽  
Comprehensive Evaluation ◽  
Arid Zone ◽  
Evaluation Model ◽  
Supply And Demand ◽  
Fuzzy Comprehensive Evaluation ◽  
Ecological Environment ◽  
Water Resources Carrying Capacity

The water resources carrying capacity is an important component of natural resource carrying capacity in a country or region sustained development process. It is the key being related to using the water resources reasonably, which means vital to the sustained growth of the water resources, the social economy and the ecological environment concordant development.Taking the case of river basin in arid zone of the Manasi River Basin,The author evaluated water resources supporting capacity condition basin in different year of the Manasi River by establishing fuzzy comprehensive evaluation model. The results indicated that because of saving water technological progress and industry restructure advancement, the water resources carrying capacity of Manasi River will be improved in the future twenty years. The water resources supply and demand contradictory will be obtained certain alleviation, but the uneven of water resources space and time distribution is still the main restrictive factor of the development of society and economic and the ecological environment construction.

scholarly journals The optimal allocation of water resources oriented to prioritizing ecological needs using multiple schemes in the Shaying River Basin (Henan Section), China

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Hang Li ◽  
Xiao-Ning Qu ◽  
Jie Tao ◽  
Chang-Hong Hu ◽  
Qi-Ting Zuo
Keyword(s):  
Water Resources ◽  
Water Supply ◽  
River Basin ◽  
Water Conservation ◽  
Water Demand ◽  
Optimal Allocation ◽  
Supply And Demand ◽  
Allocation Model ◽  
Water Supply And Demand ◽  
Ecological Objectives

Abstract China is actively exploring water resources management considering ecological priorities. The Shaying River Basin (Henan Section) serves as an important grain production base in China. However, conflicts for water between humans and the environment are becoming increasingly prominent. The present study analyzed the optimal allocation of water while considering ecological priorities in the Shaying River Basin (Henan Section). The ecological water demand was calculated by the Tennant and the representative station methods; then, based on the predicted water supply and demand in 2030, an optimal allocation model was established, giving priority to meeting ecological objectives while including social and comprehensive economic benefit objectives. After solving the model, the optimal results of three established schemes were obtained. This revealed that scheme 1 and scheme 2 failed to satisfy the water demand of the study area in 2030 by only the current conditions and strengthening water conservation, respectively. Scheme 3 was the best scheme, which could balance the water supply and demand by adding new water supply based on strengthening water conservation and maximizing the benefits. Therefore, the actual water allocation in 2030 is forecast to be 7.514 billion (7.514 × 109) m3. This study could help basin water management departments deal with water use and supply.

scholarly journals Dynamic evaluation of regional water resources carrying capacity based on set pair analysis and partial connection number

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Zheng Li ◽  
Juliang Jin ◽  
Yi Cui ◽  
Libing Zhang ◽  
Chengguo Wu ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Water Resources ◽  
Carrying Capacity ◽  
Evaluation Model ◽  
Set Pair Analysis ◽  
Connection Number ◽  
Water Resources Carrying Capacity ◽  
Micro Motion ◽  
Partial Connection ◽  
Pair Analysis ◽  
Regional Water

Abstract In order to describe the micro motion between the connection number components and seek a more applicable evaluation model, quantitatively evaluate and analyze regional water resources carrying capacity (WRCC). Firstly, an evaluation index system and grade standards of regional WRCC were constructed. Then, a method for determining the connection number was proposed, which considered the micro motion between the connection number components in system structure. Finally, built an evaluation model based on set pair analysis (SPA) and partial connection number (PCN) that used subtraction set pair potential (SPP) to identify vulnerability factors, and identification results were compared with total partial connection number (TPCN). The model was applied to Huaibei City, Anhui Province, China. The results showed that: the WRCC grade value was between 2 and 3 that was poor; the support and regulation subsystem grade value was between 2 and 3, and the pressure subsystem grade value was between 1 and 2. SPP identified that the support force and regulation force subsystem were the vulnerable subsystems. Eight indexes such as water resources per capita, rate of ecological water consumption and density of population were the main indicators causing the poor WRCC, which were in good agreement with the local measured data. In addition, the SPP and TPCN are compared to further verify rationality of the connection number determination method and reliability of the identification results. The model established in this paper has strong applicability and can also be used for the dynamic evaluation of other resources, environment and ecological carrying capacity. The results in this study can provide a scientific basis for water resources management and decision-making.

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