scholarly journals Numerical Simulation and Risk Assessment of Cascade Reservoir Dam-Break

Water ◽  
2020 ◽  
Vol 12 (6) ◽  
pp. 1730 ◽  
Author(s):  
Liangming Hu ◽  
Xu Yang ◽  
Qian Li ◽  
Shuyu Li
Keyword(s):  
Risk Assessment ◽  
Flood Control ◽  
Engineering Application ◽  
Dam Break ◽  
Flood Routing ◽  
Embankment Dam ◽  
Cascade Reservoirs ◽  
Whole Process ◽  
Barrier Lake ◽  
Outflow Rate

Despite the fact that cascade reservoirs are built in a large number of river basins nowadays, there is still an absence of studies on sequential embankment dam-break in cascade reservoirs. Therefore, numerical simulations and risk analyses of cascade reservoir dam-break are of practical engineering significance. In this study, by means of contacting the hydraulic features of upstream and downstream reservoirs with flood routing simulation (FRS) and flood-regulating calculation (FRC), a numerical model for the whole process of cascade reservoir breaching simulation (CRBS) is established based on a single-embankment dam-break model (Dam Breach Analysis—China Institute of Water Resources and Hydropower Research (DB-IWHR)). In a case study of a fundamental cascade reservoir system, in the upstream Tangjiashan barrier lake and the downstream reservoir II, the whole process of cascade reservoir dam-break is simulated and predicted under working schemes of different discharge capacities, and the risk of cascading breaching was also evaluated through CRBS. The results show that, in the dam-break of Tangjiashan barrier lake, the calculated values of the peak outflow rate are about 10% more than the recorded data, which are in an acceptable range. In the simulation of flood routing, the dam-break flood arrived at the downstream reservoir after 3 h. According to the predicted results of flood-regulating calculations and the dam-break simulation in the downstream reservoir, the risk of sequential dam-break can be effectively reduced by setting early warnings to decrease reservoir storage in advance and adding a second discharge tunnel to increase the discharge capacity. Alongside the simulation of flood routing and flood regulation, the whole process of cascade dam-break was completely simulated and the results of CRBS tend to be more reasonable; CRBS shows the great value of engineering application in the risk assessment and flood control of cascade reservoirs as an universal numerical prediction model.

scholarly journals Using 2D HEC-RAS Modeling and Embankment Dam Break Scenario for Assessing the Flood Control Capacity of a Multi-Reservoir System (NE Romania)

Water ◽  
2020 ◽  
Vol 13 (1) ◽  
pp. 57
Author(s):  
Andrei Urzică ◽  
Alin Mihu-Pintilie ◽  
Cristian Constantin Stoleriu ◽  
Cătălin Ioan Cîmpianu ◽  
Elena Huţanu ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Flood Control ◽  
Flood Hazard ◽  
Hydraulic Modeling ◽  
Dam Break ◽  
Recurrence Interval ◽  
Flood Mitigation ◽  
Dam Failure ◽  
Inflow Rate ◽  
Embankment Dam ◽  
Reservoir System

Using hydraulic modeling techniques (e.g., one-dimensional/two-dimensional (1D/2D) hydraulic modeling, dam break scenarios) for extracting the flood settings is an important aspect of any action plan for dam failure (APDF) and flood mitigation strategy. For example, the flood hydraulic models and dam break scenario generated based on light detection and ranging (LiDAR)-derived digital elevation models (DEMs) and processed in the dedicated geographic information systems (GIS) and hydraulic modeling software (e.g., HEC-RAS—Hydrologic Engineering Center River Analysis System, developed by USACE HEC, Davis, CA, USA) can improve the flood hazard maps in case of potentially embankment dam failure. In this study, we develop a small-scale conceptual approach using 2D HEC-RAS software according to the three embankment dam break scenarios, LiDAR data (0.5 m spatial resolution), and 2D hydraulic modeling for the Başeu multi-reservoir system which belongs to the Başeu River (NE Romania) including R1—Cal Alb reservoir, R2—Movileni reservoirs, R3—Tătărăşeni reservoirs, R4—Negreni reservoirs, and R5—Hăneşti reservoirs. In order to test the flood control capacity of the Bașeu multi-reservoir system, the Cal Alb (R1) dam break scenario (piping failure) was taken into account. Three 2D stream flow modeling configurations based on R1 inflow rate with a 1% (100 year), 0.5% (500 year), and 0.1% (1000 year) recurrence interval and the water volume which can be accumulated with that specific inflow rate (1% = 10.19 × 106 m3; 0.5% = 12.39 × 106 m3; 0.1% = 17.35 × 106 m3) were computed. The potential flood wave impact was achieved on the basis of different flood severity maps (e.g., flood extent, flood depth, flood velocity, flood hazard) generated for each recurrence interval scenario and highlighted within the built-up area of 27 settlements (S1–S27) located downstream of R1. The results showed that the multi-reservoir system of Bașeu River has an important role in flood mitigation and contributes to the APDF in the context of climate change and the intensification of hydrological hazard manifestation in northeastern Romania.

scholarly journals Inflow Flood Simulation and Risk Analysis of Cascade Reservoirs

2018 ◽  
Vol 246 ◽  
pp. 01106
Author(s):  
Jing Huang ◽  
Jiqing Li ◽  
Pengteng Liang
Keyword(s):  
Risk Analysis ◽  
Flood Control ◽  
Flood Routing ◽  
Three Gorges ◽  
Design Flood ◽  
Flood Simulation ◽  
Cascade Reservoirs ◽  
The Three Gorges ◽  
Flood Regulation ◽  
Risk Rate

The risk of flood control in cascade reservoirs reflects the possibility of unforeseen events in upstream reservoirs under certain space-time conditions during the operation of flood control. Using @RISK software and a stochastic simulation model to simulate the inflow flood of cascade reservoirs, the flood routing of cascade reservoirs and the risk analysis of the highest water level were carried out based on the flood regulation rules of Three Gorges-Gezhouba cascade reservoirs. The results of simulation calculations show that the risk rate of the Three Gorges-Gezhouba cascade reservoir is lower than its design flood standard, which can ensure the safety of flood control.

Flood control operation coupled with risk assessment for cascade reservoirs

2019 ◽  
Vol 572 ◽  
pp. 543-555 ◽  
Author(s):  
Xuejiao Meng ◽  
Jianxia Chang ◽  
Xuebin Wang ◽  
Yimin Wang ◽  
Zongzhi Wang
Keyword(s):  
Risk Assessment ◽  
Flood Control ◽  
Control Operation ◽  
Cascade Reservoirs ◽  
Flood Control Operation

scholarly journals Risk Assessment and Decision-Making Based on Mean-CVaR-Entropy for Flood Control Operation of Large Scale Reservoirs

Water ◽  
2019 ◽  
Vol 11 (4) ◽  
pp. 649 ◽  
Author(s):  
Quansen Wang ◽  
Jianzhong Zhou ◽  
Kangdi Huang ◽  
Ling Dai ◽  
Gang Zha ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Risk Assessment ◽  
Decision Making ◽  
Flood Control ◽  
Large Scale ◽  
Yangtze River Basin ◽  
Mean Value ◽  
Operation System ◽  
Control Operation ◽  
Flood Control Operation ◽  
Reservoir Flood Control Operation

The risk inevitably exists in the process of flood control operation and decision-making of reservoir group, due to the hydrologic and hydraulic uncertain factors. In this study different stochastic simulation methods were applied to simulate these uncertainties in multi-reservoir flood control operation, and the risk caused by different uncertainties was evaluated from the mean value, extreme value and discrete degree of reservoir occupied storage capacity under uncertain conditions. In order to solve the conflict between risk assessment indexes and evaluate the comprehensive risk of different reservoirs in flood control operation schemes, the subjective weight and objective weight were used to construct the comprehensive risk assessment index, and the improved Mahalanobis distance TOPSIS method was used to select the optimal flood control operation scheme. The proposed method was applied to the flood control operation system in the mainstream and its tributaries of upper reaches of the Yangtze River basin, and 14 cascade reservoirs were selected as a case study. The results indicate that proposed method can evaluate the risk of multi-reservoir flood control operation from all perspectives and provide a new method for multi-criteria decision-making of reservoir flood control operation, and it breaks the limitation of the traditional risk analysis method which only evaluated by risk rate and cannot evaluate the risk of the multi-reservoir flood control operation system.

scholarly journals A Case Study of Flood Risk Evaluation Based on Emergy Theory and Cloud Model in Anyang Region, China

Water ◽  
2021 ◽  
Vol 13 (4) ◽  
pp. 420
Author(s):  
Zening Wu ◽  
Yuhai Cui ◽  
Yuan Guo
Keyword(s):  
Risk Assessment ◽  
Flood Risk ◽  
Flood Control ◽  
Flood Hazard ◽  
Cloud Model ◽  
Flood Disaster ◽  
Assessment System ◽  
Assessment Model ◽  
Flood Risk Assessment ◽  
Emergy Theory

With the progression of climate change, the intensity and frequency of extreme rainfall have increased in many parts of the world, while the continuous acceleration of urbanization has made cities more vulnerable to floods. In order to effectively estimate and assess the risks brought by flood disasters, this paper proposes a regional flood disaster risk assessment model combining emergy theory and the cloud model. The emergy theory can measure many kinds of hazardous factor and convert them into unified solar emergy (sej) for quantification. The cloud model can transform the uncertainty in flood risk assessment into certainty in an appropriate way, making the urban flood risk assessment more accurate and effective. In this study, the flood risk assessment model combines the advantages of the two research methods to establish a natural and social dual flood risk assessment system. Based on this, the risk assessment system of the flood hazard cloud model is established. This model was used in a flood disaster risk assessment, and the risk level was divided into five levels: very low risk, low risk, medium risk, high risk, and very high risk. Flood hazard risk results were obtained by using the entropy weight method and fuzzy transformation method. As an example for the application of this model, this paper focuses on the Anyang region which has a typical continental monsoon climate. The results show that the Anyang region has a serious flood disaster threat. Within this region, Linzhou County and Anyang County have very high levels of risk for flood disaster, while Hua County, Neihuang County, Wenfeng District and Beiguan District have high levels of risk for flood disaster. These areas are the core urban areas and the economic center of local administrative regions, with 70% of the industrial clusters being situated in these regions. Only with the coordinated development of regional flood control planning, economy, and population, and reductions in the uncertainty of existing flood control and drainage facilities can the sustainable, healthy and stable development of the region be maintained.

scholarly journals Risk assessment of multireservoir joint flood control system under multiple uncertainties

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Quansen Wang ◽  
Jianzhong Zhou ◽  
Ling Dai ◽  
Kangdi Huang ◽  
Gang Zha
Keyword(s):  
Risk Assessment ◽  
Control System ◽  
Flood Control ◽  
Multiple Uncertainties

scholarly journals A framework for global river flood risk assessments

2013 ◽  
Vol 17 (5) ◽  
pp. 1871-1892 ◽  
Author(s):  
H. C. Winsemius ◽  
L. P. H. Van Beek ◽  
B. Jongman ◽  
P. J. Ward ◽  
A. Bouwman
Keyword(s):  
Risk Assessment ◽  
Flood Risk ◽  
Hydrological Model ◽  
Flood Hazard ◽  
Probability Distributions ◽  
Flood Routing ◽  
Risk Assessments ◽  
First Case ◽  
Impact Models ◽  
Damage Estimates

Abstract. There is an increasing need for strategic global assessments of flood risks in current and future conditions. In this paper, we propose a framework for global flood risk assessment for river floods, which can be applied in current conditions, as well as in future conditions due to climate and socio-economic changes. The framework's goal is to establish flood hazard and impact estimates at a high enough resolution to allow for their combination into a risk estimate, which can be used for strategic global flood risk assessments. The framework estimates hazard at a resolution of ~ 1 km2 using global forcing datasets of the current (or in scenario mode, future) climate, a global hydrological model, a global flood-routing model, and more importantly, an inundation downscaling routine. The second component of the framework combines hazard with flood impact models at the same resolution (e.g. damage, affected GDP, and affected population) to establish indicators for flood risk (e.g. annual expected damage, affected GDP, and affected population). The framework has been applied using the global hydrological model PCR-GLOBWB, which includes an optional global flood routing model DynRout, combined with scenarios from the Integrated Model to Assess the Global Environment (IMAGE). We performed downscaling of the hazard probability distributions to 1 km2 resolution with a new downscaling algorithm, applied on Bangladesh as a first case study application area. We demonstrate the risk assessment approach in Bangladesh based on GDP per capita data, population, and land use maps for 2010 and 2050. Validation of the hazard estimates has been performed using the Dartmouth Flood Observatory database. This was done by comparing a high return period flood with the maximum observed extent, as well as by comparing a time series of a single event with Dartmouth imagery of the event. Validation of modelled damage estimates was performed using observed damage estimates from the EM-DAT database and World Bank sources. We discuss and show sensitivities of the estimated risks with regard to the use of different climate input sets, decisions made in the downscaling algorithm, and different approaches to establish impact models.

scholarly journals The place of artificial intelligence in the risk management process

2021 ◽  
Vol 120 ◽  
pp. 02013
Author(s):  
Petya Biolcheva
Keyword(s):  
Artificial Intelligence ◽  
Risk Assessment ◽  
Risk Management ◽  
Real Time ◽  
Risk Identification ◽  
Management Process ◽  
Whole Process ◽  
Risk Management Process ◽  
Problematic Issue ◽  
The Individual

In recent years, there has been increasing talk of the rapid entry of artificial intelligence into risk management. All the benefits it would bring over the whole process are often commented on: real-time results, processing large amounts of data, more complete risk identification, more accurate risk assessment, etc. There are also negative moods that make various experts feel threatened by their need to be replaced by artificial intelligence. Another problematic issue that arises is related to the transparency of algorithms and the increase in cyber risks [6]. This material aims to identify the individual elements at the stages of risk management in which artificial intelligence (AI) can and should be applied alone, in combination with expert opinion or not. Here it is shown that because of the use of AI the efficiency of the whole process is significantly increased, first of all by conducting in-depth analyses, and the decisions are made by the risk management experts. This proves its usefulness and increases the confidence of experts in it.

Sign in / Sign up

Export Citation Format

Share Document