scholarly journals Stratification in a Reservoir Mixed by Bubble Plumes under Future Climate Scenarios

Water ◽  
2021 ◽  
Vol 13 (18) ◽  
pp. 2467
Author(s):  
David Birt ◽  
Danielle Wain ◽  
Emily Slavin ◽  
Jun Zang ◽  
Robert Luckwell ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Water Quality ◽  
Future Climate ◽  
Future Climate Change ◽  
Source Water ◽  
Climate Scenarios ◽  
Bubble Plume ◽  
Bubble Plumes ◽  
The Future ◽  
Source Water Quality

During summer, reservoir stratification can negatively impact source water quality. Mixing via bubble plumes (i.e., destratification) aims to minimise this. Within Blagdon Lake, a UK drinking water reservoir, a bubble plume system was found to be insufficient for maintaining homogeneity during a 2017 heatwave based on two in situ temperature chains. Air temperature will increase under future climate change which will affect stratification; this raises questions over the future applicability of these plumes. To evaluate bubble-plume performance now and in the future, AEM3D was used to simulate reservoir mixing. Calibration and validation were done on in situ measurements. The model performed well with a root mean squared error of 0.53 °C. Twelve future meteorological scenarios from the UK Climate Projection 2018 were taken and down-scaled to sub-daily values to simulate lake response to future summer periods. The down-scaling methods, based on diurnal patterns, showed mixed results. Future model runs covered five-year intervals from 2030 to 2080. Mixing events, mean water temperatures, and Schmidt stability were evaluated. Eight scenarios showed a significant increase in water temperature, with two of these scenarios showing significant decrease in mixing events. None showed a significant increase in energy requirements. Results suggest that future climate scenarios may not alter the stratification regime; however, the warmer water may favour growth conditions for certain species of cyanobacteria and accelerate sedimentary oxygen consumption. There is some evidence of the lake changing from polymictic to a more monomictic nature. The results demonstrate bubble plumes are unlikely to maintain water column homogeneity under future climates. Modelling artificial mixing systems under future climates is a powerful tool to inform system design and reservoir management including requirements to prevent future source water quality degradation.

scholarly journals Dynamics of soil organic carbon in the steppes of Russia and Kazakhstan under past and future climate and land use

2021 ◽  
Vol 21 (3) ◽  
Author(s):  
Susanne Rolinski ◽  
Alexander V. Prishchepov ◽  
Georg Guggenberger ◽  
Norbert Bischoff ◽  
Irina Kurganova ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Land Use ◽  
Organic Carbon ◽  
Land Use Change ◽  
Soil Organic Carbon ◽  
Arable Land ◽  
Future Climate ◽  
Future Climate Change ◽  
Climate Scenarios ◽  
The Impact

AbstractChanges in land use and climate are the main drivers of change in soil organic matter contents. We investigated the impact of the largest policy-induced land conversion to arable land, the Virgin Lands Campaign (VLC), from 1954 to 1963, of the massive cropland abandonment after 1990 and of climate change on soil organic carbon (SOC) stocks in steppes of Russia and Kazakhstan. We simulated carbon budgets from the pre-VLC period (1900) until 2100 using a dynamic vegetation model to assess the impacts of observed land-use change as well as future climate and land-use change scenarios. The simulations suggest for the entire VLC region (266 million hectares) that the historic cropland expansion resulted in emissions of 1.6⋅ 1015 g (= 1.6 Pg) carbon between 1950 and 1965 compared to 0.6 Pg in a scenario without the expansion. From 1990 to 2100, climate change alone is projected to cause emissions of about 1.8 (± 1.1) Pg carbon. Hypothetical recultivation of the cropland that has been abandoned after the fall of the Soviet Union until 2050 may cause emissions of 3.5 (± 0.9) Pg carbon until 2100, whereas the abandonment of all cropland until 2050 would lead to sequestration of 1.8 (± 1.2) Pg carbon. For the climate scenarios based on SRES (Special Report on Emission Scenarios) emission pathways, SOC declined only moderately for constant land use but substantially with further cropland expansion. The variation of SOC in response to the climate scenarios was smaller than that in response to the land-use scenarios. This suggests that the effects of land-use change on SOC dynamics may become as relevant as those of future climate change in the Eurasian steppes.

scholarly journals Evaluation of Climate Change on Streamflow, Sediment, and Nutrient Load at Watershed Scale

Climate ◽  
2021 ◽  
Vol 9 (11) ◽  
pp. 165
Author(s):  
Prem B. Parajuli ◽  
Avay Risal
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Water Quality ◽  
Minimum Temperature ◽  
Future Climate ◽  
Maximum Temperature ◽  
Nutrient Load ◽  
Climate Scenarios ◽  
Monthly Average ◽  
Average Maximum ◽  
Monthly Streamflow

This study evaluated changes in climatic variable impacts on hydrology and water quality in Big Sunflower River Watershed (BSRW), Mississippi. Site-specific future time-series precipitation, temperature, and solar radiation data were generated using a stochastic weather generator LARS-WG model. For the generation of climate scenarios, Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs), 4.5 and 8.5 of Global Circulation Models (GCMs): Hadley Center Global Environmental Model (HadGEM) and EC-EARTH, for three (2021–2040, 2041–2060 and 2061–2080) future climate periods. Analysis of future climate data based on six ground weather stations located within BSRW showed that the minimum temperature ranged from 11.9 °C to 15.9 °C and the maximum temperature ranged from 23.2 °C to 28.3 °C. Similarly, the average daily rainfall ranged from 3.6 mm to 4.3 mm. Analysis of changes in monthly average maximum/minimum temperature showed that January had the maximum increment and July/August had a minimum increment in monthly average temperature. Similarly, maximum increase in monthly average rainfall was observed during May and maximum decrease was observed during September. The average monthly streamflow, sediment, TN, and TP loads under different climate scenarios varied significantly. The change in average TN and TP loads due to climate change were observed to be very high compared to the change in streamflow and sediment load. The monthly average nutrient load under two different RCP scenarios varied greatly from as low as 63% to as high as 184%, compared to the current monthly nutrient load. The change in hydrology and water quality was mainly attributed to changes in surface temperature, precipitation, and stream flow. This study can be useful in the development and implementation of climate change smart management of agricultural watersheds.

scholarly journals An evaluation of the effect of future climate on runoff in the Dongjiang River basin, South China

2015 ◽  
Vol 368 ◽  
pp. 257-262
Author(s):  
K. Lin ◽  
W. Zhai ◽  
S. Huang ◽  
Z. Liu
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
River Basin ◽  
South China ◽  
Annual Runoff ◽  
Future Climate ◽  
Weather Data ◽  
Future Climate Change ◽  
Dongjiang River ◽  
The Future ◽  
The Impact

Abstract. The impact of future climate change on the runoff for the Dongjiang River basin, South China, has been investigated with the Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT). First, the SWAT model was applied in the three sub-basins of the Dongjiang River basin, and calibrated for the period of 1970–1975, and validated for the period of 1976–1985. Then the hydrological response under climate change and land use scenario in the next 40 years (2011–2050) was studied. The future weather data was generated by using the weather generators of SWAT, based on the trend of the observed data series (1966–2005). The results showed that under the future climate change and LUCC scenario, the annual runoff of the three sub-basins all decreased. Its impacts on annual runoff were –6.87%, –6.54%, and –18.16% for the Shuntian, Lantang, and Yuecheng sub-basins respectively, compared with the baseline period 1966–2005. The results of this study could be a reference for regional water resources management since Dongjiang River provides crucial water supplies to Guangdong Province and the District of Hong Kong in China.

Changes in cyclone circulation and storm tracks under different future climate scenarios

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Matthew Priestley ◽  
Jennifer Catto
Keyword(s):  
Future Climate ◽  
Storm Tracks ◽  
Future Climate Change ◽  
Extratropical Cyclones ◽  
Climate Scenarios ◽  
Economic Perspective ◽  
Wind Fields ◽  
Upper Troposphere ◽  
Modelling Studies ◽  
Cyclone Tracking

<p>Extratropical cyclones have the potential to cause large damages across the mid-latitudes. Future climate change is projected to have a large impact on the location of the storm tracks, and the frequency of these cyclones, however the sign and magnitude of these responses has been uncertain for regions near the end of the storm tracks in previous coupled and idealized modelling studies.</p><p> </p><p>Through the use of a Lagrangian cyclone tracking method we quantify changes in the storm tracks for both summer and winter seasons in both hemispheres for four future climate scenarios using a number of CMIP6 models. A cyclone compositing technique is employed to identify changes in cyclone circulation for the strongest cyclones in the lower, middle, and upper troposphere. We identify an intensification of the cyclone circulation in all seasons, apart from NH summer, where a weakening is detected. Cyclone size is also projected to increase, with a widening of the pressure and wind fields.</p><p> </p><p>These results have significant implications from a socio-economic perspective. Despite a projected decrease in cyclone numbers, an increase in severity may lead to more drastic windstorms and larger impacts across heavily populated regions of the mid-latitudes.</p>

Integrated Water Balance and Water Quality Management Under Future Climate Change and Population Growth: A Case Study of Upper Litani Basin, Lebanon

2022 ◽  
Author(s):  
Rana Salim Abou Slaymane ◽  
M. Reda Soliman
Keyword(s):  
Water Quality ◽  
Water Resources ◽  
Water Balance ◽  
General Circulation ◽  
Waste Water Treatment ◽  
Water Quality Management ◽  
Circulation Model ◽  
Future Climate ◽  
Future Climate Change ◽  
Baseline Scenario

Abstract The impacts of the growing population at Lebanon including Lebanese, Palestinian and Syrian refugees, associated with the changing climate parameters such that the precipitation are putting the Bekaa Valley’s water resources in a stymie situation. The water resources are under significant stress limiting the water availability and deteriorating the water quality at the Upper Litani River Basin (ULRB) within the Bekaa Valley region. These impacts are assessed by Water Evaluation And Planning model to assure the water balance and quality at baseline scenario in 2013, and future scenarios reaching 2095, serving by the Watershed Modeling System to get the flow throughout the Litani River’s ungauged zones. Moreover, a General Circulation Model is used to predict the future climate up to 2100 under several emissions scenarios which shows a critical situation at the high emission scenario where the precipitation will be reduced about 87 mm from 2013 to 2095. The aim of this research is to reduce the water pollution that limits the availability of usable water, and to minimize the gap between the demand and supply of water within the ULRB in order to maintain water resources sustainability, and preserves its quality, even after 80 years. In particular, this may be achieved by removing encroachments on the river, by adding waste water treatment plants, by reducing the amount of lost water in damaged water network, and by avoiding the overconsumption of groundwater.

NASA-Modified Precipitation Products to Improve USEPA Nonpoint Source Water Quality Modeling for the Chesapeake Bay

2010 ◽  
Vol 39 (4) ◽  
pp. 1388-1401 ◽  
Author(s):  
Nigro Joseph ◽  
Toll David ◽  
Partington Ed ◽  
Wenge Ni-Meister ◽  
Lee Shihyan ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Water Quality ◽  
Chesapeake Bay ◽  
Nonpoint Source ◽  
Water Quality Modeling ◽  
Source Water ◽  
Quality Modeling ◽  
Source Water Quality
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