Impacts of Climate Change on the Precipitation and Streamflow Regimes in Equatorial Regions: Guayas River Basin

The effects of climate change projected for 2050 to 2079 relative to the 1968–2014 reference period were evaluated using 39 CMIP5 models under the RCP8.5 emissions scenario in the Guayas River basin. The monthly normalized precipitation index (SPI) was used in this study to assess the impact of climate change for wet events and droughts from a meteorological perspective. The GR2M model was used to project changes in the streamflow of the Daule River. The climate projection was based on the four rigorously selected models to represent the climate of the study area. On average, an increase in temperature (~2 °C) and precipitation (~6%) is expected. A 7% increase in precipitation would result in a 10% increase in streamflow for flood periods, while an 8% decrease in precipitation could result in approximately a 60% reduction in flow for dry periods. The analysis of droughts shows that they will be more frequent and prolonged in the highlands (Andes) and the middle part of the basin. In the future, wet periods will be less frequent but of greater duration and intensity on the Ecuadorian coast. These results point to future problems such as water deficit in the dry season but also increased streamflow for floods during the wet season. This information should be taken into account in designing strategies for adaptation to climate change.

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Variations of Drought Tendency, Frequency, and Characteristics and Their Responses to Climate Change under CMIP5 RCP Scenarios in Huai River Basin, China

Water ◽

10.3390/w11102174 ◽

2019 ◽

Vol 11 (10) ◽

pp. 2174 ◽

Cited By ~ 4

Author(s):

Jingcai Wang ◽

Hui Lin ◽

Jinbai Huang ◽

Chenjuan Jiang ◽

Yangyang Xie ◽

...

Keyword(s):

Climate Change ◽

River Basin ◽

Eastern China ◽

Cmip5 Models ◽

Drought Severity ◽

Global Circulation Models ◽

Huai River Basin ◽

Huai River ◽

The Future ◽

The Impact

Huai River Basin (HRB) is an important food and industrial production area and a frequently drought-affected basin in eastern China. It is necessary to consider the future drought development for reducing the impact of drought disasters. Three global circulation models (GCMs) from Coupled Model Intercomparison Project phase 5 (CMIP5), such as CNRM-CM5 (CNR), HadGEM2-ES (Had) and MIROC5 (MIR), were used to assessment the future drought conditions under two Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs) scenarios, namely, RCP4.5 and RCP8.5. The standardized precipitation evapotranspiration index (SPEI), statistical method, Mann-Kendall test, and run theory were carried out to study the variations of drought tendency, frequency, and characteristics and their responses to climate change. The research showed that the three CMIP5 models differ in describing the future seasonal and annual variations of precipitation and temperature in the basin and thus lead to the differences in describing drought trends, frequency, and drought characteristics, such as drought severity, drought duration, and drought intensity. However, the drought trend, frequency, and characteristics in the future are more serious than the history. The drought frequency and characteristics tend to be strengthened under the scenario of high concentration of RCP8.5, and the drought trend is larger than that of low concentration of RCP4.5. The lower precipitation and the higher temperature are the main factors affecting the occurrence of drought. All three CMIP5 models show that precipitation would increase in the future, but it could not offset the evapotranspiration loss caused by significant temperature rise. The serious risk of drought in the future is still higher. Considering the uncertainty of climate models for simulation and prediction, attention should be paid to distinguish the effects of different models in the future drought assessment.

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Climate change impact to dam Operation, case study of Darma Dam, West Java

IOP Conference Series Materials Science and Engineering ◽

10.1088/1757-899x/1212/1/012031 ◽

2022 ◽

Vol 1212 (1) ◽

pp. 012031

Author(s):

A A Kuntoro ◽

D T Ramadhani ◽

A M S Idris ◽

M Farid ◽

M B Adityawan ◽

...

Keyword(s):

Climate Change ◽

Present Condition ◽

Water Volume ◽

Adaptation To Climate Change ◽

Wet Season ◽

West Java ◽

Industrial Sectors ◽

Dam Operation ◽

Average Water ◽

The Impact

Abstract Darma Dam is located in the upstream of Cisanggarung River, Kuningan Regency, West Java Province. Darma Dam construction dated from about 1922. Indonesian government continued the construction and began operating in 1962. With effective storage of about 40 million m3, Darma Dam provides water for about 22 thousand irrigation areas and bulk water for several cities and regencies. Several problems encountered in Darma Dam operation and water management are 1) increasing water demand from domestic and industrial sectors, and 2) high inflow variation during the dry and wet season, resulting in a large amount of water spill from the dam spillway. This paper addressed the impact of climate change on the inflow variation of Darma Dam in the dry and wet seasons. Further analysis shows average water spills from the spillway during the wet season may increase from about 12 million m3/year in the present condition to about 20 million m3/year in 2020-2050, while the average water volume during the dry season may reduce from 22.5 million m3 in the present condition to about 20.7 million m3 in 2020-2050. This study suggests that dam operation need adjustment in the future as part of adaptation to climate change.

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Impacts of and adaptation to climate change on the oil palm in Malaysia: a systematic review

Environmental Science and Pollution Research ◽

10.1007/s11356-021-15890-3 ◽

2021 ◽

Author(s):

Ahmed Abubakar ◽

Mohd Yusoff Ishak ◽

Abdullah Ahmad Makmom

Keyword(s):

Climate Change ◽

Oil Palm ◽

Anthropogenic Activities ◽

National Policy ◽

Adaptation Strategies ◽

Adaptation To Climate Change ◽

Adverse Impacts ◽

Bush Fire ◽

The Impact ◽

Impacts Of Climate Change

AbstractThe interaction and the interplay of climate change with oil palm production in the Southeast Asia region are of serious concern. This particularly applies in Malaysia due to its rank as the second largest palm oil producer in the world. The anthropogenic activities and the agroecological practices in oil palm plantation, including excessive use of fertilisers, bush fire due to land clearing, and cultivation on peatland, have exacerbated the effects of climate change featuring extreme events, drought, flooding, heatwave, as well as infestation of pest and diseases. These adverse impacts on oil palm production highlight the significance of deploying effective adaptation strategies. The study aims to examine the impact of climate change on oil palm production and identify the farmers’ adaptation strategies to the impacts of climate change in Malaysia. This study was conducted a comprehensive review of the articles published from 2000 to 2021 in the contexts of climate change and oil palm production in Malaysia. The review shows that climate change has a range of impacts on the oil palm production in Malaysia. As a result, several adaptation options were identified, such as breeding of hybrid varieties that are tolerant and resistant to heat; sustainable management of soil; pit and tranches to enhance water management in plantation areas; minimal use of fertilisers, herbicides, and pesticides; zero burning; and minimum tillage. The reviewed studies recommended the following to mitigate the adverse impacts of climate change: sustainable national policy on climate change, conservation of the existing carbon stock, effective management of tropical rainforest biodiversity, afforestation for carbon sequestration, and reduction in greenhouse gas (GHG) emission.

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Spatial Variation of Annual and Monthly Rainfall in Orsang River Basin, Gujarat, India

International Journal of Innovative Technology and Exploring Engineering - Special Issue ◽

10.35940/ijitee.k1579.0881119 ◽

2019 ◽

Vol 8 (11) ◽

pp. 584-587

Keyword(s):

Climate Change ◽

Water Resources ◽

Spatial Variability ◽

River Basin ◽

Monthly Rainfall ◽

Natural Phenomenon ◽

Historical Evidence ◽

Hydrology And Water Resources ◽

The Impact ◽

Impacts Of Climate Change

Climate change is one of the most discussed issues affecting the environment nowadays. Many researchers have been agreed that the increase in temperature in comparison to the previous century is due to anthropologically related activities, though there are enough historical evidence to support the theory that climate change is a natural phenomenon. This paper reviews the impact of climate change by assessing the trend of annual and monthly rainfall and representing spatial variability over the Orsang river basin in Narmada lower river basin in the state of Gujarat, India. This will be helpful to study the impacts of climate change on hydrology and water resources, and planning & management of water resources, environmental protection, and ecological balance over the orsang river basin, India.

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IMPACTS OF CLIMATE CHANGE ON IRRIGATED AGRICULTURE IN THE CHALIYAR RIVER BASIN IN KERALA, INDIA

International Journal of Big Data Mining for Global Warming ◽

10.1142/s2630534819500013 ◽

2019 ◽

Vol 01 (01) ◽

pp. 1950001

Author(s):

ARYA SOMAN ◽

N. R. CHITHRA

Keyword(s):

Climate Change ◽

River Basin ◽

Climate Model ◽

Regional Climate ◽

Dry Season ◽

Water Requirement ◽

Irrigated Agriculture ◽

Max Planck ◽

Wet Season ◽

Impacts Of Climate Change

Impact assessment of regional climate change is very important as change in climate has emerged as one of the major threats to water resource systems and would significantly affect streamflow, soil moisture and water availability. The study used output of the Regional Climate Model (RCM) Remo2009 (Max-Planck-Institute (MPI)) to analyze the potential impacts of climate change on irrigated agriculture in the Chaliyar river basin, India. Streamflow and evapotranspiration were simulated using validated Hydrologic Engineering Center’s Hydrologic Modeling System (HEC-HMS) model. The estimation of irrigation water requirement (IWR) was performed using Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO) method for the period 2021–2030 and 2051–2060. Results show that projected streamflow increases during June to September and decreases during October to December and January to May in future. Crop water requirement and IWR showed an increase during dry season and decrease during wet season. The increase/decrease in streamflow and IWR during wet/dry season is more in the far future than near future and for RCP 8.5 scenario than RCP 4.5 scenario.

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Proposing an implementation of a climate change adaptation strategy at river basin scale. Application to the Jucar river basin.

10.5194/egusphere-egu2020-366 ◽

2020 ◽

Author(s):

Clara E Estrela Segrelles ◽

Miguel Ángel Pérez Martín

Keyword(s):

Climate Change ◽

River Basin ◽

Climate Change Adaptation ◽

Water System ◽

Adaptation Strategy ◽

Adaptation To Climate Change ◽

Intergovernmental Panel ◽

Basin Scale ◽

Water Vulnerability ◽

The Impact

According to the Fifth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, warming of the climate system is unequivocal and in recent decades, changes in climate have caused impacts on natural and human systems on all continents and across the oceans. Surface temperature is projected to rise, and rainfall patterns to change. Freshwater resources could be compromised due to climate change, especially in the Mediterranean region. Moreover, extreme events as droughts or floods are expected to occur more frequently.For all these reasons, we propose the evaluation and implementation of a climate change adaptation river basin plan with the aim of reducing risks and improve resilience. Indeed, one of the goal 13 targets of the Sustainable Development Goals is strengthening resilience and adaptive capacity to climate-related hazards and natural disasters in all countries. The EU Strategy on adaptation to climate change encourage all members to implement adaptation strategies. For instance, climate change adaptation river basin plans are a reality in France, where basin adaptation plans have been published since 2014.Evaluating risks and propose measures in order to reduce water vulnerability is needed in Jucar river basin (Eastern Spain) where water system is currently stressed. Jucar climate change adaptation basin plan should evaluate the specific qualities the basin has and the risks and vulnerabilities in order to strength water management. For this evaluation, we propose to assess the impact of the spatial distribution of precipitation and temperature within the case study for identifying the most vulnerability areas. Furthermore, the sea level rise will cause affection in groundwater aquifers that should be included on the proposed analysis.

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WATER SCARCITY FROM CLIMATE CHANGE AND ADAPTATION RESPONSE IN AN INTERNATIONAL RIVER BASIN CONTEXT

Climate Change Economics ◽

10.1142/s2010007815500049 ◽

2015 ◽

Vol 06 (01) ◽

pp. 1550004 ◽

Cited By ~ 5

Author(s):

JASON F.L. KOOPMAN ◽

ONNO KUIK ◽

RICHARD S.J. TOL ◽

ROY BROUWER

Keyword(s):

Climate Change ◽

River Basin ◽

Computable General Equilibrium ◽

Growth Models ◽

Economic Impacts ◽

Substitution Effects ◽

Adaptation To Climate Change ◽

Damage Costs ◽

Adaptation Response ◽

The Impact

We simulate and analyze the direct and indirect economic impacts of climate change on water availability for irrigation on the economy of the Netherlands and the other EU countries which share the Rhine and Meuse river basin (France, Germany and Belgium), employing a computable general equilibrium (CGE) model. We make use of the GTAP-W model, distinguishing between rainfed and irrigated land and irrigation water as input factors in agricultural production. We assess the scope of market adaptation to climate change by comparing the CGE results with the direct agricultural damage costs estimated using hydrological and crop growth models. We find considerable scope for market adaptation in that total economic impacts on agriculture are much lower when accounting for substitution effects and cross-sectoral and cross-country interlinkages, while the impact on the nonagricultural sectors becomes larger when these substitution effects and interlinkages are accounted for.

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Climate change impact assessment on hydrological fluxes based on ensemble GCM outputs: a case study in eastern Indian River Basin

Journal of Water and Climate Change ◽

10.2166/wcc.2019.080 ◽

2019 ◽

Vol 11 (4) ◽

pp. 1676-1694 ◽

Cited By ~ 1

Author(s):

Jagadish Padhiary ◽

Kanhu Charan Patra ◽

Sonam Sandeep Dash ◽

A. Uday Kumar

Keyword(s):

Climate Change ◽

River Basin ◽

Assessment Tool ◽

Cmip5 Models ◽

Agricultural Practice ◽

Policy Makers ◽

Sustainable Water Resources Management ◽

The Future ◽

Indian River ◽

The Impact

Abstract The present study assessed the impact of climate change in the Anandapur catchment of Baitarani River basin, India, using the Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) hydrological model. The future climatic alterations under two Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs), i.e. 4.5 and 8.5 scenarios, are quantified by an ensemble of two different CMIP5 models, i.e. CNRM-CM5.0, GFDL-CM3.0. The outcomes of this study reveal that the future rainfall and temperature may experience an increasing trend with gradual shifting of monsoon from mid-June to mid-May. The average annual streamflow experienced the highest increase during the period 2071–2095, whereas the highest average annual evapotranspiration (ET) is observed for the period 2046–2070 under both the RCPs and resulting in comparatively slower groundwater recharge (GWR) over the basin. In order to implement suitable adaptation strategies for a possible flood scenario on the concerned study basin, three critical sub-basins, namely, sub-basin 1, 4, and 5, were identified. Furthermore, the altered streamflow and ET dynamics may result in a significant shifting in the conventional agricultural practice in the coming future time scales. Conclusively, the outcomes of this study have potential implications for policy makers in formulating the policies related to sustainable water resources management in future scenarios.

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The Impact of Climate Change on Storage-Yield Curves for Multi-Reservoir Systems

Hydrology Research ◽

10.2166/nh.1999.0007 ◽

1999 ◽

Vol 30 (2) ◽

pp. 129-146 ◽

Cited By ~ 3

Author(s):

N. R. Nawaz ◽

A. J. Adeloye ◽

M. Montaseri

Keyword(s):

Climate Change ◽

Surface Fluxes ◽

Runoff Coefficient ◽

Impact Study ◽

Yield Functions ◽

Reservoir Systems ◽

English System ◽

Multiple Reservoir ◽

The Impact ◽

Impacts Of Climate Change

In this paper, we report on the results of an investigation into the impacts of climate change on the storage-yield relationships for two multiple-reservoir systems, one in England and the other in Iran. The impact study uses established protocol and obtains perturbed monthly inflow series using a simple runoff coefficient approach which accounts for non-evaporative losses in the catchment, and a number of recently published GCM-based scenarios. The multi-reservoir analysis is based on the sequent-peak algorithm which has been modified to analyse multiple reservoirs and to accommodate explicitly performance norms and reservoir surface fluxes, i.e. evaporation and rainfall. As a consequence, it was also possible to assess the effect of including reservoir surface fluxes on the storage-yield functions. The results showed that, under baseline conditions, consideration of net evaporation will require lower storages for the English system and higher storages for the Iranian system. However, with perturbed hydroclimatology different impacts were obtained depending on the systems' yield and reliability. Possible explanations are offered for the observed behaviours.

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