IMPACTS OF CLIMATE CHANGE ON IRRIGATED AGRICULTURE IN THE CHALIYAR RIVER BASIN IN KERALA, INDIA

2019 ◽  
Vol 01 (01) ◽  
pp. 1950001
Author(s):  
ARYA SOMAN ◽  
N. R. CHITHRA
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
River Basin ◽  
Climate Model ◽  
Regional Climate ◽  
Dry Season ◽  
Water Requirement ◽  
Irrigated Agriculture ◽  
Max Planck ◽  
Wet Season ◽  
Impacts Of Climate Change

Impact assessment of regional climate change is very important as change in climate has emerged as one of the major threats to water resource systems and would significantly affect streamflow, soil moisture and water availability. The study used output of the Regional Climate Model (RCM) Remo2009 (Max-Planck-Institute (MPI)) to analyze the potential impacts of climate change on irrigated agriculture in the Chaliyar river basin, India. Streamflow and evapotranspiration were simulated using validated Hydrologic Engineering Center’s Hydrologic Modeling System (HEC-HMS) model. The estimation of irrigation water requirement (IWR) was performed using Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO) method for the period 2021–2030 and 2051–2060. Results show that projected streamflow increases during June to September and decreases during October to December and January to May in future. Crop water requirement and IWR showed an increase during dry season and decrease during wet season. The increase/decrease in streamflow and IWR during wet/dry season is more in the far future than near future and for RCP 8.5 scenario than RCP 4.5 scenario.

scholarly journals A Mechanistically Credible, Poleward Shift in Warm-Season Precipitation Projected for the U.S. Southern Great Plains?

2017 ◽  
Vol 30 (20) ◽  
pp. 8275-8298 ◽  
Author(s):  
Melissa S. Bukovsky ◽  
Rachel R. McCrary ◽  
Anji Seth ◽  
Linda O. Mearns
Keyword(s):  
Great Plains ◽  
Climate Models ◽  
Climate Model ◽  
Global Climate Model ◽  
Regional Climate ◽  
Warm Season ◽  
Dry Season ◽  
Wet Season ◽  
Southern Great Plains ◽  
Poleward Shift

Abstract Global and regional climate model ensembles project that the annual cycle of rainfall over the southern Great Plains (SGP) will amplify by midcentury. Models indicate that warm-season precipitation will increase during the early spring wet season but shift north earlier in the season, intensifying late summer drying. Regional climate models (RCMs) project larger precipitation changes than their global climate model (GCM) counterparts. This is particularly true during the dry season. The credibility of the RCM projections is established by exploring the larger-scale dynamical and local land–atmosphere feedback processes that drive future changes in the simulations, that is, the responsible mechanisms or processes. In this case, it is found that out of 12 RCM simulations produced for the North American Regional Climate Change Assessment Program (NARCCAP), the majority are mechanistically credible and consistent in the mean changes they are producing in the SGP. Both larger-scale dynamical processes and local land–atmosphere feedbacks drive an earlier end to the spring wet period and deepening of the summer dry season in the SGP. The midlatitude upper-level jet shifts northward, the monsoon anticyclone expands, and the Great Plains low-level jet increases in strength, all supporting a poleward shift in precipitation in the future. This dynamically forced shift causes land–atmosphere coupling to strengthen earlier in the summer, which in turn leads to earlier evaporation of soil moisture in the summer, resulting in extreme drying later in the summer.

scholarly journals Hydrological impacts of climate change on small ungauged catchments – results from a global climate model–regional climate model–hydrologic model chain

2020 ◽  
Vol 20 (8) ◽  
pp. 2133-2155
Author(s):  
Aynalem T. Tsegaw ◽  
Marie Pontoppidan ◽  
Erle Kristvik ◽  
Knut Alfredsen ◽  
Tone M. Muthanna
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Hydrological Model ◽  
Climate Model ◽  
Regional Climate ◽  
Reference Period ◽  
Future Period ◽  
The Mean ◽  
Model Chain ◽  
Small Catchments ◽  
Impacts Of Climate Change

Abstract. Climate change is one of the greatest threats currently facing the world's environment. In Norway, a change in climate will strongly affect the pattern, frequency, and magnitudes of stream flows. However, it is challenging to quantify to what extent the change will affect the flow patterns and floods from small rural catchments due to the unavailability or inadequacy of hydro-meteorological data for the calibration of hydrological models and due to the tailoring of methods to a small-scale level. To provide meaningful climate impact studies at the level of small catchments, it is therefore beneficial to use high-spatial- and high-temporal-resolution climate projections as input to a high-resolution hydrological model. In this study, we used such a model chain to assess the impacts of climate change on the flow patterns and frequency of floods in small ungauged rural catchments in western Norway. We used a new high-resolution regional climate projection, with improved performance regarding the precipitation distribution, and a regionalized hydrological model (distance distribution dynamics) between a reference period (1981–2011) and a future period (2070–2100). The flow-duration curves for all study catchments show more wet periods in the future than during the reference period. The results also show that in the future period, the mean annual flow increases by 16 % to 33 %. The mean annual maximum floods increase by 29 % to 38 %, and floods of 2- to 200-year return periods increase by 16 % to 43 %. The results are based on the RCP8.5 scenario from a single climate model simulation tailored to the Bergen region in western Norway, and the results should be interpreted in this context. The results should therefore be seen in consideration of other scenarios for the region to address the uncertainty. Nevertheless, the study increases our knowledge and understanding of the hydrological impacts of climate change on small catchments in the Bergen area in the western part of Norway.

scholarly journals Impacts of climate change on the water regime of the Inn River basin – extracting adaptation-relevant information from climate model ensembles and impact modelling

2012 ◽  
Vol 32 ◽  
pp. 99-107 ◽  
Author(s):  
J. Korck ◽  
J. Danneberg ◽  
W. Willems
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
River Basin ◽  
Regional Climate ◽  
Relevant Information ◽  
High Flow ◽  
Low Flow ◽  
Climate Projections ◽  
Study Region ◽  
Regional Climate Projections ◽  
Impacts Of Climate Change

Abstract. The Inn River basin is a highly relevant study region in terms of potential hydrological impacts of climate change and cross boundary water management tasks in the Alpine Space. Regional analyses in this catchment were performed within the EU co-funded project AdaptAlp. Objective of the study was to gain scientifically based knowledge about impacts of climate change on the water balance and runoff regime for the Inn River basin, this being fundamental for the derivation of adaptation measures. An ensemble of regional climate projections is formed by combinations of global and regional climate models on the basis of both statistical and bias-corrected dynamical downscaling procedures. Several available reference climate datasets for the study region are taken into account. As impact model, the process-oriented hydrological model WaSiM-ETH is set up. As expected, regional climate projections indicate temperature increases for the future in the study area. Projections of precipitation change are less homogenous, especially regarding winter months, though most indicate a decrease in the summer. Hydrological simulation results point towards climate induced changes in the water regime of the study region. The analysis of hydrological projections at both ends of the ensemble bandwidth is a source of adaptation relevant information regarding low-flow and high-flow conditions. According to a "drought-prone scenario", mean monthly low flow could decrease up to −40% in the time frame of 2071–2100. A "high-flow-increase-scenario" points towards an increase in mean monthly high flow in the order of +50% in the winter, whilst showing a decrease in autumn.

scholarly journals Impacts of Climate Change on the Hydro-Climate of Peninsular Malaysia

Water ◽  
2019 ◽  
Vol 11 (9) ◽  
pp. 1798 ◽  
Author(s):  
Ir. Mohd Zaki bin Mat Amin ◽  
Ali Ercan ◽  
Kei Ishida ◽  
M. Levent Kavvas ◽  
Z.Q. Chen ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
21St Century ◽  
Climate Model ◽  
Regional Climate ◽  
Water Storage ◽  
Peninsular Malaysia ◽  
Soil Water Storage ◽  
Historical Period ◽  
Coastal Regions ◽  
Impacts Of Climate Change

In this study, a regional climate model was used to dynamically downscale 15 future climate projections from three GCMs covering four emission scenarios (SRES B1, A1FI, A1B, A2) based on Coupled Model Intercomparison Project phase 3 (CMIP3) datasets to 6-km horizontal resolution over the whole Peninsular Malaysia. Impacts of climate change in the 21st century on the precipitation, air temperature, and soil water storage were assessed covering ten watersheds and twelve coastal regions. Then, by coupling a physical hydrology model with the regional climate model, the impacts of the climate change on river flows were assessed at the outlets of ten watersheds in Peninsular Malaysia. It was found that the increase in the 30-year mean annual precipitation from 1970–2000 to 2070–2100 will vary from 17.1 to 36.3 percent among the ten watersheds, and from 22.9 to 45.4 percent among twelve coastal regions. The ensemble average of the basin-average annual mean air temperature will increase about 2.52 °C to 2.95 °C from 2010 to 2100. In comparison to the historical period, the change in the 30-year mean basin-average annual mean soil water storage over the ten watersheds will vary from 0.7 to 10.9 percent at the end of 21st century, and that over the twelve coastal regions will vary from −1.7 to 15.8 percent. Ensemble averages of the annual mean flows of the 15 projections show increasing trends for the 10 watersheds, especially in the second half of the 21st century. In comparison to the historical period, the change in the 30-year average annual mean flows will vary from −2.1 to 14.3 percent in the early 21st century, 4.4 to 23.8 percent in the middle 21st century, and 19.1 to 45.8 percent in the end of 21st century.

Evaluation of the impacts of climate change and land-use dynamics on water resources: The case of the Lobo River watershed: Central-Western Côte d'Ivoire

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Berenger Koffi ◽  
Zilé Alex Kouadio ◽  
Affoué Berthe Yao ◽  
Kouakou Hervé Kouassi ◽  
Martin Sanchez Angulo ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Land Use ◽  
Water Resources ◽  
Water Resource Management ◽  
Climate Model ◽  
Regional Climate ◽  
Mean Annual Temperature ◽  
Climate Change Scenarios ◽  
River Watershed ◽  
Impacts Of Climate Change

<p>Meeting growing water needs in a context of increasing scarcity of resources due to climate change and changes in land use is a major challenge for developing countries in the coming years. The watershed of the Lobo river in Nibéhibé does not escape this dilemma. The water retention of the Lobo River and its watershed play an important role in the subsistence of the inhabitants of the region. However, the watershed is currently subject to strong human pressures mainly associated with the constant increase in human population and intensification of agricultural activities. The main objective of this study is to assess the impacts of climate change on the water resources of the Lobo River watershed at Nibéhibé in the central-western part of Côte d'Ivoire. Two climate change scenarios (RCP4.5 and RCP8.5) were established using the regional climate model RCA4 (Rossby Centre atmospheric model 4) and the flows under these scenarios were simulated by the hydrological model CEQUEAU with respect to a reference period (1986-2005). The RCA4 regional model predicts an increase of 1.27° C; 2.58° C in the horizon 2021-2040 and 2051-2070 in mean annual temperature. Rainfall would also experience a significant average annual decrease of about 6.51% and 11.15% over the period 2021-2040 and 2041-2070. As for the evolution of flows, the Cequeau model predicts a decrease in the runoff and infiltration of water on the horizon 2021-2040 and an increase in evapotranspiration over time according to the RCP4.5 scenario. However, the model predicts an increase in runoff at the expense of a decrease in REE and infiltration at the horizon 2040-2070 according to scenario RCP8.5. It appears from this study that surface flows and infiltrations, which constitute the water resources available to meet the water needs of the basin's populations, will be the most affected. The results obtained in this study are important and could contribute to guide decision making for sustainable water resource management.</p>

Predicted Changes in Short-Term Rainfall Intensities and Runoff at the Ipoltica River Basin

2020 ◽  
Vol 15 (3) ◽  
pp. 172-183
Author(s):  
Gabriel Földes ◽  
Silvia Kohnová ◽  
Marija Mihaela Labat ◽  
Kamila Hlavčová
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
River Basin ◽  
Climate Model ◽  
Regional Climate ◽  
Curve Number ◽  
Short Term ◽  
Community Land Model ◽  
Design Values ◽  
Service Curve ◽  
The Impact

The paper focuses on the impact of climate change on runoff in the Ipoltica River basin in northern Slovakia. The analysis is divided into two parts: the first part contains an analysis of predicted changes in short-term rainfall intensities at the Liptovská Teplička climatological station; the second part is focused on the impact of runoff on a small mountainous river basin. The predicted short-term rainfall intensities were analyzed using the Community Land Model, which is a Regional Climate Model. The analysis was performed in durations of 60 to 1440 minutes for a warm period. The focus was aimed at comparing changes in rainfall characteristics, especially changes in seasonality, the scaling exponents, and design values. The second part focuses on the impact of changes in short-term rainfall on changes in runoff. The estimation of predicted runoff changes was provided for the period 2070 - 2100. These results were compared with the results from actual observations. The design floods were calculated using the Soil Conservation Service - Curve Number method. The results show that the runoff will be affected by climate change. Hence, it is important to reevaluate the land use management and practices at the Ipoltica River basin.

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