scholarly journals Analysis and Prediction of Sustainable Utilization of Water Resources in Chengde City Based on System Dynamics Model

Water ◽  
2021 ◽  
Vol 13 (24) ◽  
pp. 3534
Author(s):  
Bofan Wang ◽  
Yutong Tian ◽  
Xuanjin Li ◽  
Chunhui Li

In addition to the social economy and the rapid development of industry and agriculture, water demand is increasing and poses challenges in the over-exploitation of water resources. This research establishes a model to assess the sustainable exploitation of water resources based on system dynamics theory and STELLA software, which solves the imbalanced allocation of industrial water, agricultural water and domestic water. The model is composed of two parts: the water quantity system (including economy, population, water availability and water demand) and the water quality system (composed of the aquatic environment), which is suitable for Chengde City with a water resource shortage. The proposed model is established by data of Chengde City from 2007 to 2016 and is verified by 2017 data. Furthermore, in order to compare the water quality and water utilization of Chengde City under different development scenarios up to 2025, the sensitivity analysis of each variable (e.g., population) is carried out in this model, and thereby the water resource utilization scenarios are acquired. Specifically, four scenarios are designed and denoted: Scenario 1: keeping the status quo unchanged, Scenario 2: slowing down economic development and devoting more energy to environmental protection, Scenario 3: only focusing more on economic development and Scenario 4: aiming at steady and rapid economic growth and an eco-friendly environment. The results shows that Scenarios 2 and 3 facilitate high-effective water resource utilization compared with the current development, Scenario 1. Scenario 4 fosters the balance of water resources supply–demand in the future and preserves the water quality. This study provides an inspiring method for realizing the sustainable utilization and optimizing allocation of water resources in Chengde City.

2019 ◽  
Vol 69 (2) ◽  
pp. 113-121
Author(s):  
Zhiwei Qi ◽  
Changlai Xiao ◽  
Bo Zhang ◽  
Xiujuan Liang

Abstract Traditional indicators of water resource utilization degree and efficiency cannot show the stressed relationship between the level of water resource utilization and economic development level in a region. Therefore, this manuscript proposes a generalized index of socio-economic consumption level of water resources. The definition of the index is the ratio of water consumption change for GDP growth per unit, and the potential of water resources exploitation and utilization. The theoretical curve of this index has a rise period, a high value period, and a decline period, which correspond to the take-off period, bottleneck period and maturity period of the regional economic development, respectively. This index can help us find the turning point of water resources restricting economy. The indexes of each year are calculated respectively from 1994 to 2010 of Beijing and Hebei province of China as example. The result shows that both two provinces are in the transitional period from high value period to the decline period. This example shows the universality of Generalized Index of Regional Socio-economic Consumption Level of Water Resources. Setting a target Generalized Index of Regional Socio-economic Consumption Level of Water Resources is consistent with the sustainable development level of regional economy which could promote both regional economic development and water resources protection.


Author(s):  
X. B. Wang ◽  
Z. L. Wang

Abstract The paper uses the super-efficiency DEA (Data Envelopment Analysis) model to measure the water resources utilization efficiency of 30 provinces in China, and then uses the system GMM (Generalized Method of Moments) model to analyze the impact of environmental regulations on China's regional water resources utilization efficiency. Conclusions as follows: (1) The overall water utilization efficiency is low, and the regions are very unbalanced. The more efficient areas are concentrated in the east, and the less efficient areas are in the west; (2)There is a ‘U’-shaped relationship between the intensity of environmental regulation and water resource utilization efficiency, that is, weaker environmental regulation intensity is not conducive to the improvement of water resource utilization efficiency, but when the intensity of environmental regulation crosses the ‘inflection point’, it can promote the improvement of water resources utilization efficiency; (3) The level of economic development has a very significant positive effect on water resources utilization efficiency, and the coefficient of scientific and technological progress is positive, but the impact of scientific and technological input on water resources utilization efficiency is limited and not significant; industrial structure and water resource utilization efficiency shows a negative correlation; water use structure and water resources efficiency show a negative correlation.


2016 ◽  
Vol 16 (4) ◽  
pp. 980-991 ◽  
Author(s):  
Fu Qiang ◽  
Li Tianxiao ◽  
Liu Dong ◽  
Dong He

To achieve sustainable utilization of urban water resources and sustainable social and economic development and to relieve the supply–demand pressure related to water resources in Jiamusi, a simulation model based on system dynamics theory is established to identify the feedback mechanism and the causal relationship among the factors affecting the sustainable utilization of water resources. The conditions regarding the utilization of water resources in Jiamusi in 2010 are taken as the benchmark for the model, and the supply–demand structure of urban water resources and the geographical characteristics of the region are used as the basis for its establishment. The model is divided into five subsystems described by 64 variables to simulate the supply–demand structure of the water resources in the region, as well as both the individual supply and demand structures, and thus to obtain the supply–demand conditions and the trends of variation in water resources in the short, medium and long terms. The results show that seriously unbalanced supply–demand conditions for water resources will prevail in Jiamusi in the future. By 2030, the supply–demand ratio will be only 0.5987; the level of development and utilization of surface water resources and transit water resources will be relatively low, and the groundwater resources will still be suffering excessive exploitation; the industrial water demand will be greatly increased, and agricultural development will be restricted. With a focus on the problems that may arise in the utilization of water resources at present and in the future, a proposal regarding the realization of the sustainable utilization of water resources and sustainable social and economic development in Jiamusi is presented. The outcomes of this research have important theoretical and practical significance for providing guidance regarding the scientific and reasonable utilization of water resources in Jiamusi.


2019 ◽  
Vol 11 (18) ◽  
pp. 5064 ◽  
Author(s):  
Wan ◽  
Song ◽  
Su ◽  
Peng ◽  
Khatiwada ◽  
...  

In the Koshi River Basin, the effects of climate change have become clear. Agricultural countries, such as Nepal, depend on farmers’ adaptations to climate change for local sustainable development. Limited livelihood options, unequal access to resources and information, and climate change-related floods and droughts have reduced farmer welfare. Few studies have investigated the effects of altitude in rural areas or examined livelihood adaptation strategies in Nepal. Using a survey of farmers in rural areas at high, middle, and low altitudes in Nepal, this article explores the impacts of climate change-related floods and droughts, as well as the water resource utilization, disaster resilience, and livelihood improvement ability of farmers and the influencing factors. This article adopted participatory rural appraisal to obtain survey data from farmers at three altitudes. Through one-way ANOVA and F-tests, farmers’ perceptions of floods and droughts were analyzed, and through field investigations, their production and water consumption patterns were established. Logistic regressions show that college education, farming income, and domestic water consumption have the strongest impacts on households’ disaster resilience, while non-farm income, male laborer rates, and college education have the strongest impacts on households’ abilities to improve livelihoods. Based on our results, we offer countermeasures and suggestions on education, gender equality, and rural infrastructure construction.


2019 ◽  
Vol 11 (12) ◽  
pp. 3396 ◽  
Author(s):  
Xuhui Ding ◽  
Zixuan Zhang ◽  
Fengping Wu ◽  
Xiangyi Xu

Tibet is the province with the largest international rivers and water resource reserves in China. However, due to its special ecological environment, the utilization of water resources has become an inevitable problem. Considering the undesirable outputs in water resource utilization, the Super-efficiency Slack-based Measure (SE-SBM) model is used to measure water utilization efficiency of Tibet and the Tibetan areas (four provinces where Tibetan areas are located) from 2006 to 2016. The mixed and random panel Tobit model is used to investigate the driving factors of water efficiency and a horizontal comparison between provinces is made on this basis. The results show that the water utilization efficiency of Tibet and the Tibetan areas in four provinces shows a “U-shaped” trend. The water utilization efficiency of most provinces is greater than or close to 1 and the water utilization efficiency of each province shows a constant convergence trend. Environmental regulation and technological innovation have a significant positive effect on water utilization efficiency. Urbanization and foreign direct investment (FDI) have a significant negative effect on water utilization efficiency. Per capita Gross Domestic Product (GDP) and water resource endowment have no significant effect on water utilization efficiency. It is necessary to select a new type of urbanization suitable for the Tibetan Plateau, eliminate the backward production capacity, high water consumption, or high emissions industries, and to strengthen the research and development of water-saving and emission-reduction technology innovation in Tibet.


2020 ◽  
Vol 12 (17) ◽  
pp. 6944
Author(s):  
Yiru Guo ◽  
Yan Hu ◽  
Ke Shi ◽  
Yuriy Bilan

With progress in China’s industrialization and urbanization, the contradiction of social and economic development with water resource supply–demand and water environmental pollution becomes increasingly prominent. To cope with the dual constraints of resource shortage and environmental regulations, the concept of water resource green efficiency that considers economic, environmental, and ecological factors is highly involved to promote sustainable economic development. The theoretical and practice circle devote to scientific green efficiency assessment of water resources and effective recognition of relevant influencing factors. However, to an extent they neglect social benefits brought by sustainable development and possible influences of industrial restructuring on green efficiency. They also lack concern on green efficiency of water resources in inland arid areas. To offset the disadvantages of existing studies, the philosophy of sustainable development was integrated into the input–output assessment system of green efficiency of water resources, and an assessment model was constructed using the SBM–Tobit (slack-based measure and Tobit) method. Moreover, a case study based on Henan Province, China was carried out. The green efficiencies of water resources in 18 cities of Henan Province during 2011–2018 were calculated. The operation mechanism of relevant influencing factors was discussed, and the methods to improve green efficiency of water resources were determined. Results reveal that the sustainable green efficiency of water resources in Henan Province increased in fluctuation during 2011–2018. The mean green efficiency increased from 0.425 in 2011 to 0.498 in 2018. At present, green efficiency of water resources in Henan Province remains at a low level, with a mean of 0.504. Reducing water consumption intensity and increasing investment to water environmental pollution technologies can promote green efficiency of water resources significantly. Conclusions provide a new method for scientific measurement and green efficiency assessment of water resources in inland arid areas.


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