Can Indirect Estimation Methods and the Medical Officer of Health Reports 'Correct' Distorted Infant Mortality Rates Reported by the Registrar General? The Case of London, 1896–1911

2021 ◽  
pp. 57-81
Author(s):  
Sarah L Rafferty
Keyword(s):  
Infant Mortality ◽  
Medical Officer ◽  
Mortality Rates ◽  
Alternative Methods ◽  
Estimation Methods ◽  
Place Of Residence ◽  
Indirect Estimation ◽  
Registrar General ◽  
Estimation Techniques ◽  
The Rich

The Registrar General's Returns are an integral source for historical demographers. Concerns have been raised, however, over the geographical accuracy of their pre-1911 mortality figures when institutional deaths were not redistributed to place of residence. This paper determines the extent of the distortions caused by institutional mortality in the context of aggregate infant mortality rates for London's registration sub-districts. The potential of two alternative methods to 'correct' these distortions is then assessed. The first method uses indirect estimation techniques based on data from the 1911 Fertility Census, and the second exploits the rich detail available from the Medical Officer of Health reports. Through narrowing the focus to seven London registration sub-districts over the years 1896–1911, it is shown that both suggested alternative methods remove the institutional mortality biases found in the Registrar General's figures, yet they come with their own limitations.

scholarly journals Comparing Bayesian Spatial Conditional Overdispersion and the Besag–York–Mollié Models: Application to Infant Mortality Rates

Mathematics ◽  
2021 ◽  
Vol 9 (3) ◽  
pp. 282
Author(s):  
Mabel Morales-Otero ◽  
Vicente Núñez-Antón
Keyword(s):  
Infant Mortality ◽  
Count Data ◽  
Spatial Dependence ◽  
Poisson Model ◽  
Mortality Rates ◽  
Estimation Methods ◽  
Neighborhood Structure ◽  
Specific Context ◽  
Count Data Models ◽  
Conditional Mean

In this paper, we review overdispersed Bayesian generalized spatial conditional count data models. Their usefulness is illustrated with their application to infant mortality rates from Colombian regions and by comparing them with the widely used Besag–York–Mollié (BYM) models. These overdispersed models assume that excess of dispersion in the data may be partially caused from the possible spatial dependence existing among the different spatial units. Thus, specific regression structures are then proposed both for the conditional mean and for the dispersion parameter in the models, including covariates, as well as an assumed spatial neighborhood structure. We focus on the case of response variables following a Poisson distribution, specifically concentrating on the spatial generalized conditional normal overdispersion Poisson model. Models were fitted by making use of the Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) and Integrated Nested Laplace Approximation (INLA) algorithms in the specific context of Bayesian estimation methods.

scholarly journals Indirect estimation of infant mortality in small areas

2019 ◽  
Vol 36 ◽  
pp. 1-37
Author(s):  
Ricardo Neupert ◽  
Rogelio Eduardo Fernandez Menjivar ◽  
Rogelio Eduardo Fernandez Castilla
Keyword(s):  
Infant Mortality ◽  
Estimation Methods ◽  
Random Errors ◽  
Indirect Methods ◽  
Essential Information ◽  
Indirect Estimation ◽  
Small Areas ◽  
Mortality Estimation ◽  
Robust Estimates ◽  
Mortality Estimates

The Brass-type indirect methods of early-age mortality estimation have been used for more than four decades, providing very robust estimates for countries without reliable vital registration systems. However, when estimation areas become smaller, the number of dead children could be very small, especially among those born to young women, who provide essential information to estimate recent mortality. In these cases, estimates could be affected by random errors and unexpected annual fluctuations. At the same time, although it is very unlikely that demographic trends in a small area would follow patterns very different from those prevailing in the broader environment they belong to, it is possible that some local events may become relevant to small areas, causing some deviations from the assumptions that may hold true to the larger area. The objective of this paper is to propose an adaptation of the indirect estimation approach, which would allow obtaining infant and child mortality estimates for small areas. As such, this proposal belongs to the realm of indirect estimation methods, sharing the limitations and advantages that characterize this type of estimation procedures. The method is illustrated with data from the 2014 Population and Housing Census of Myanmar. The results indicate that the method proposed here provides reliable and consistent infant mortality estimates, compared to the original Brass’ method, even in very small areas.

scholarly journals The Macroeconomic Controversy Over Price Rigidity — How to Resolve it and How Bayesian Estimation has Led us Astray

2022 ◽  
Author(s):  
David Meenagh ◽  
Patrick Minford ◽  
Michael R. Wickens
Keyword(s):  
Monte Carlo ◽  
Bayesian Estimation ◽  
Estimation Methods ◽  
Monte Carlo Experiment ◽  
Price Rigidity ◽  
Estimation Bias ◽  
Indirect Estimation ◽  
Macroeconomic Models ◽  
Estimation Techniques ◽  
Price Flexibility

AbstractPrice rigidity plays a central role in macroeconomic models but remains controversial. Those espousing it look to Bayesian estimated models in support, while those assuming price flexibility largely impose it on their models. So controversy continues unresolved by testing on the data. In a Monte Carlo experiment we ask how different estimation methods could help to resolve this controversy. We find Bayesian estimation creates a large potential estimation bias compared with standard estimation techniques. Indirect estimation where the bias is found to be low appears to do best, and offers the best way forward for settling the price rigidity controversy.

Infant mortality in England, 1538–2000: the parish register period, 1538–1837

2019 ◽  
pp. 103-204
Author(s):  
Chris Galley
Keyword(s):  
Infant Mortality ◽  
Mortality Rates ◽  
Future Research ◽  
Principal Source ◽  
Parish Registers

This paper, the second of four, examines patterns and trends in infant mortality during the period 1538–1837 when the principal source available to examine these issues is parish registers. It explains how to calculate infant mortality rates from parish registers, identifies trends and discusses possible explanations for the patterns of change identified. The paper also shows how new estimates of infant mortality can be readily undertaken and ends with suggestions for future research.

The Joy of Statistics

2019 ◽  
Author(s):  
Steve Selvin
Keyword(s):  
Coronary Heart Disease ◽  
Short Stories ◽  
Heart Disease ◽  
Infant Mortality ◽  
Statistical Methods ◽  
Ethnic Differences ◽  
Coronary Heart Disease Risk ◽  
Disease Risk ◽  
Mortality Rates ◽  
Heart Disease Risk

The Joy of Statistics consists of a series of 42 “short stories,” each illustrating how elementary statistical methods are applied to data to produce insight and solutions to the questions data are collected to answer. The text contains brief histories of the evolution of statistical methods and a number of brief biographies of the most famous statisticians of the 20th century. Also throughout are a few statistical jokes, puzzles, and traditional stories. The level of the Joy of Statistics is elementary and explores a variety of statistical applications using graphs and plots, along with detailed and intuitive descriptions and occasionally using a bit of 10th grade mathematics. Examples of a few of the topics are gambling games such as roulette, blackjack, and lotteries as well as more serious subjects such as comparison of black/white infant mortality rates, coronary heart disease risk, and ethnic differences in Hodgkin’s disease. The statistical description of these methods and topics are accompanied by easy to understand explanations labeled “how it works.”

scholarly journals Health capabilities and the determinants of infant mortality in Brazil, 2004–2015: an innovative methodological framework

2021 ◽  
Vol 21 (1) ◽  
Author(s):  
Alexandre Bugelli ◽  
Roxane Borgès Da Silva ◽  
Ladislau Dowbor ◽  
Claude Sicotte
Keyword(s):  
Infant Mortality ◽  
Educational Attainment ◽  
Health Professionals ◽  
Capita Income ◽  
Mortality Rates ◽  
Fertility Rate ◽  
Employment Rate ◽  
Infant Deaths ◽  
Bolsa Familia ◽  
Per Capita

Abstract Background Despite the implementation of a set of social and health policies, Brazil has experienced a slowdown in the decline of infant mortality, regional disparities and persistent high death levels, raising questions about the determinants of infant mortality after the implementation of these policies. The objective of this article is to propose a methodological approach aiming at identifying the determinants of infant mortality in Brazil after the implementation of those policies. Method A series of multilevel panel data with fixed effect nested within-clusters were conducted supported by the concept of health capabilities based on data from 26 Brazilian states between 2004 and 2015. The dependent variables were the neonatal, the infant and the under-five mortality rates. The independent variables were the employment rate, per capita income, Bolsa Família Program coverage, the fertility rate, educational attainment, the number of live births by prenatal visits, the number of health professionals per thousand inhabitants, and the access to water supply and sewage services. We also used different time lags of employment rate to identify the impact of employment on the infant mortality rates over time, and household income stratified by minimum wages to analyze their effects on these rates. Results The results showed that in addition to variables associated with infant mortality in previous studies, such as Bolsa Família Program, per capita income and fertility rate, other factors affect child mortality. Educational attainment, quality of prenatal care and access to health professionals are also elements impacting infant deaths. The results also identified an association between employment rate and different infant mortality rates, with employment impacting neonatal mortality up to 3 years and that a family income below 2 minimum wages increases the odds of infant deaths. Conclusion The results proved that the methodology proposed allowed the use of variables based on aggregated data that could hardly be used by other methodologies.

scholarly journals Determinants of neonatal, postneonatal and maternal mortality on models of primary health

2020 ◽  
Vol 30 (Supplement_5) ◽  
Author(s):  
A B Guerra ◽  
L M Guerra ◽  
L F Probst ◽  
B V Castro Gondinho ◽  
G M Bovi Ambrosano ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Health Care ◽  
Infant Mortality ◽  
Maternal Mortality ◽  
Public Policies ◽  
Family Health ◽  
Mortality Rates ◽  
Sao Paulo ◽  
The State ◽  
Care Organization ◽  
São Paulo

Abstract Background The state of São Paulo recorded a significant reduction in infant mortality, but the desired reduction in maternal mortality was not achieved. Knowledge of the factors with impact on these indicators would be of help in formulating public policies. The aims of this study were to evaluate the relations between socioeconomic and demographic factors, health care model and both infant mortality and maternal mortality in the state of São Paulo, Brazil. Methods In this ecological study, data from national official open sources were used. Analyzed were 645 municipalities in the state of São Paulo, Brazil. For each municipality, the infant mortality and maternal mortality rates were calculated for every 1000 live births, 2013. The association between these rates, socioeconomic variables, demographic models and the primary care organization model in the municipality were verified. We used the zero-inflated negative binomial model. Gross analysis was performed and then multiple regression models were estimated. For associations, we adopted “p” at 5%. Results The increase in the HDI of the city and proportion of Family Health Care Strategy implemented were significantly associated with the reduction in both infant mortality (neonatal + post-neonatal) and maternal mortality rates. In turn, the increase in birth and caesarean delivery rates were associated with the increase in infant and maternal mortality rates. Conclusions It was concluded that the Family Health Care Strategy model that contributed to the reduction in infant (neonatal + post-neonatal) and maternal mortality rates, and so did actors such as HDI and cesarean section. Thus, public health managers should prefer this model. Key messages Implementation of public policies with specific focus on attenuating these factors and making it possible to optimize resources, and not interrupting the FHS. Knowledge of the factors with impact on these indicators would be of help in formulating public policies.

Higher Cesarean Delivery Rates are Associated with Higher Infant Mortality Rates in Industrialized Countries

Birth ◽  
2015 ◽  
Vol 42 (1) ◽  
pp. 62-69 ◽  
Author(s):  
Ri-hua Xie ◽  
Laura Gaudet ◽  
Daniel Krewski ◽  
Ian D. Graham ◽  
Mark C. Walker ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Infant Mortality ◽  
Cesarean Delivery ◽  
Mortality Rates ◽  
Industrialized Countries
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