scholarly journals EXCHANGE MARKET PRESSURE INDEX AS A MACROECONOMIC RISK MEASURING INSTRUMENT

2020 ◽  
pp. 10-20
Keyword(s):  
Economic Development ◽  
International Trade ◽  
Foreign Exchange ◽  
Financial Stability ◽  
Foreign Exchange Market ◽  
The State ◽  
Exchange Market ◽  
Republic Of Moldova ◽  
Pressure Index ◽  
The Republic

The financial sector of the Republic of Moldova belongs to the developing ones and is characterized by a higher level of risk and, therefore, a higher likelihood of a systemic crisis. Globalization and development of advanced information technologies not only create great opportunities for rapid economic development, but also pose serious security threats to the economic development of states, especially in a developing economy. In these conditions, the issue of ensuring the financial stability of the state is becoming increasingly relevant. The state of the financial and foreign exchange market represents one of the most important aspects of the financial security of the state. This study has been developed as part of the scientific project 15.817.06.02A "Development of tools for measuring the financial stability of the state". The study analyzes various macrofinancial risk management tools. The purpose of this study was to calculate the pressure index on the foreign exchange market of both the Republic of Moldova and the main partner countries in terms of international trade. The results of related studies conducted by the authors of this work, which revealed that stability indicators in the foreign exchange market are associated with foreign trade risks served as an argument for the authors of the work to calculate the pressure index on the currency market of Romania and the Russian Federation for comparison with the indicators of the Republic of Moldova. Methods used in research include theoretical and comparative approaches, descriptive statistics and econometric models. The results of the research showed that international trade and the foreign exchange market are interdependent. The first can be considered a channel for transmitting the currency crisis, since demand increases with increasing imports, and this leads to increased pressure on the foreign exchange market. Increased exports reduce pressure on the foreign exchange market. But the greatest impact on the foreign exchange market in the Republic of Moldova is made by remittances from abroad, which are directly correlated with the dynamics of labor exports. At the same time, it was concluded that at present, due to macroprudential regulation, there are no linear dependencies in financial markets and, therefore, there are no correlations, but only the interdependence of variables.

scholarly journals 70 years of China's foreign exchange market development: history and experience

2020 ◽  
Vol 3 (1) ◽  
pp. 3-17
Author(s):  
Guogang Wang ◽  
Nan Lin
Keyword(s):  
Economic Development ◽  
Exchange Rate ◽  
Foreign Exchange ◽  
Foreign Exchange Market ◽  
Exchange Market ◽  
Rate System ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Economic Exchanges ◽  
History Of ◽  
Reform And Opening Up

PurposeThe development of China's foreign exchange market and the reform of Chinese yuan (hereinafter “CNY”) exchange rate are closely linked with each other. Their respective journey through the past 70 years can both be divided into three historical periods; as follows: China's foreign exchange market underwent a difficult exploration period, a formation and development period and an innovative development period; in the meanwhile, the formation mechanism of CNY exchange rate also witnessed three periods marked successively by a single exchange rate system with administrative pricing, an explorative formation mechanism of CNY exchange rate and a reformed, marketized CNY exchange rate mechanism.Design/methodology/approachIn the present world, the development of almost every country is closely linked to the international community, which is the result of the heterogeneity in system, market, humanity and history, in addition to the differences in natural resource endowments and the diversity in technology, administration, information, experience and diplomacy. International economic exchanges require foreign exchange, which gives rise to the existence and development of the foreign exchange market.FindingsThe 70-year history of China's foreign exchange market has proven the need to continue safeguarding national sovereignty and interests of the people, stick to the general direction of serving economic development, adhere to the strategy of steadily and orderly promoting the construction of the foreign exchange market, keep on making innovation in monetary policy operation and unbendingly stay away from any systemic financial risks.Originality/valueDuring the 70-year history of the new China, as an indispensable economic resource in China's economic development, the foreign exchange mechanism bolstered each stage of economic development and was always an important manifestation of China's economic sovereignty. It is argued that during the 30-year planned economy that preceded reform and opening-up, China pursued a closed-door policy with few international economic exchanges. The subtext of such argument is that China did not have (or hardly had much of) a foreign exchange mechanism during this period, which is clearly in conflict with historical evidence. In fact, although China did not have an open foreign exchange market before the reform and opening-up, it had a clear foreign exchange management system and exchange rate system.

scholarly journals Foreign Exchange Market and the Asset Approach

2021 ◽  
Vol 9 (9) ◽  
pp. 351-356
Author(s):  
Dr. Varsha Agarwal
Keyword(s):  
International Trade ◽  
Exchange Rates ◽  
Foreign Exchange ◽  
Foreign Exchange Market ◽  
Foreign Currency ◽  
Trade Flows ◽  
Exchange Market ◽  
Abstract Exchange ◽  
Relative Prices ◽  
Goods And Services

Abstract: Exchange rates play a central role in international trade because they allow us to compare the prices of goods and services produced in different countries. A consumer deciding which of two American cars to buy must compare their dollar prices. Households and firms use exchange rates to translate foreign prices into domestic cur-rency terms. Once the money prices of domestic goods and imports have been expressed in terms of the same currency, households and firms can compute the relative prices that affect international trade flows. Keywords: Foreign Exchange, Exchange Rate, International Trade, Foreign Currency, FOREX Rate, Assets Approach.

scholarly journals The influence of factors on the security management of the foreign exchange market in Ukraine

2021 ◽  
Vol 2021 (2) ◽  
pp. 315-327
Author(s):  
Oksana Svatiuk ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Exchange Rate ◽  
Foreign Exchange ◽  
Foreign Exchange Market ◽  
Exchange Rate Regime ◽  
Security Management ◽  
Economic Security ◽  
The State ◽  
Exchange Market ◽  
State Management ◽  
Floating Exchange Rate

The article analyzes the principles of development and security management of the foreign exchange market of Ukraine. Substantiates the influence of factors on the functioning of the foreign exchange market such as: improvement of the regulatory framework; monetary policy on the stabilization of the floating exchange rate regime; lending to the National Bank of Ukraine within the current 18-month stand-by program from the International Monetary Fund; replenishment of the market currency through the purchase and sale of government bonds; the influence of international and domestic factors on the liberalization of the foreign exchange market in Ukraine; receipt of a share of currency more than 10% of the population working abroad; restoring the confidence of individuals and entrepreneurs in the national currency. The structure and analysis of the process and dynamics of the foreign exchange market of Ukraine are characterized. The author evaluates the security management of currency regulation of the floating exchange rate regime, which directly affects the state of the foreign exchange market (Fig. 1). The state of exchange rate regulation and its impact on the foreign exchange market on the basis of personal observation during 2015-2021 are studied. The main advantage of this article is the clarification of the elements of the mechanism of currency regulation, which is due to the negative impact of a wide range of external and internal factors on the tools (Fig. 2). This mechanism is a powerful lever of state management of economic security and regulation of foreign exchange market liberalization in the context of a significant deterioration of the crisis situation in Ukraine in recent years. The main areas of security management of the mechanism of functioning of the foreign exchange market of Ukraine are the following. The first is optimization of the procedure of foreign exchange interventions of the NBU – schedule, parameters of interventions. This will increase the transparency and predictability of NBU operations in the foreign exchange market. NBU managers should abandon discriminatory approach to ensure all banks have equal access to interventions. The second is increasing of the digitization and disclosure of communication policies with actors. Its deterioration is due to negative comments addressed to banks regarding speculative actions on exchange rate formation, non-compliance with the requirements of the NBU in lending, security management and customer distrust. The third is strengthening of the reserve requirements for bank security management in order to reduce the excessive liquidity of the banking system.

scholarly journals Implementation of the principles of effective public administration for sustainable development in Moldova

2021 ◽  
Vol 17 (3) ◽  
pp. 41-51
Author(s):  
S. Rusu ◽  
Ion Partachi
Keyword(s):  
Sustainable Development ◽  
Economic Development ◽  
United Nations ◽  
Public Administration ◽  
International Organizations ◽  
The State ◽  
World Health ◽  
Republic Of Moldova ◽  
The United Nations ◽  
The Republic

Introduction: The article analyzes the basic principles of an ef­fective public administration in the interests of sustainable develop­ment, lists the legislative acts confirming the commitment to these principles. Also, special attention is paid to the state programs for the implementation of the SDGs in the Republic of Moldova, to the special state bodies that are engaged in the implementation of the SDGs and their goals, as well as to the areas in which the Republic of Moldova cooperates with international organizations in relation to the SDGs. At the end of the article, the authors describe the main problems faced by the Government of the country in implementing the Principles of Effective Public Administration in the Interests of Sustainable Development and achieving the Sus­tainable Development Goals.Methods and materials: The research methodology is based on the following general scientific and special methods of cognition: the method of system-structural analysis, comparative, and formal-logical method.The article analyzes the materials and data provided by the national institutes of the Republic of Moldova, as well as the data and materials of international organizations, including: the United Nations, the Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations, the World Health Organization, the United Nations Children's Fund, the In­ternational Organization for Migration, the International Labour Organization, etc.Results: As a result of the study, it became clear that the Republic of Moldova is actively working towards the implementation of the principles of effective public administration in the interests of sustainable development of Moldova. Despite the difficulties faced by the Republic of Moldova, the country still managed to achieve significant results in this area. The documents adopted at the state level contributed to achieving the goals and meeting the main requirements for the pace and quality of economic development in the period up to 2030.By 2030, Moldova is expected to become a country where poverty and corruption are eliminated, inequality is reduced, social inclusion and cohesion are strengthened, so that "no one is left behind", a country where human rights, gender equality and women's empowerment, the rule of law, environmental sustainability and the well-being of the population are respected and promoted.Discussion and conclusions. In its ambition to achieve SDGS, the Republic of Moldova is facing a myriad of challenges. Despite the fact that significant progress was registered, there is still a lot of work to do at all levels of public administration. Moreover, it is also essential to enhance the system for SDGs implementation moni­toring and evaluation. This 2030 Agenda requires a profound change that goes beyond the economic and political situation of the country. Moldova will achieve the key in­dicators of sustainable development and become a favourable country for the life of its citizens if only it will promote economic development policies of the country. 

scholarly journals Foreign exchange market pressure index and monetary policy in Iraq

2018 ◽  
Vol 63 (219) ◽  
pp. 61-82
Author(s):  
Ammar Khalaf
Keyword(s):  
Monetary Policy ◽  
Foreign Exchange ◽  
Foreign Exchange Market ◽  
Foreign Currency ◽  
Series Data ◽  
Policy Intervention ◽  
Exchange Market ◽  
Exchange Market Pressure ◽  
Pressure Index ◽  
Market Pressure

This paper?s aims are to adequately measure a foreign exchange market pressure index that can be used to discover pressures in the Iraqi foreign exchange market early on, and to examine the effect of monetary policy intervention in the Iraqi foreign exchange market. The modelling approach used is Autoregressive Distributed Lag (ARDL), with monthly time series data spanning 2013-2017. The index used in this paper was able to identify different periods of pressure in the Iraqi foreign exchange market. In addition, the econometric analysis found that the traditional proxies for monetary policy intervention in the foreign exchange market, such as domestic credit and money multiplier, were ineffective in the case of Iraq. The results show that the Central Bank of Iraq (CBI) relied extensively on foreign reserves to mitigate pressures in the foreign exchange market. Due to the nature of the Iraqi economy and where the main source of foreign currency is oil exports, the CBI adopted a fixed exchange rate regime to control inflationary expectations and stabilize the foreign exchange market.

scholarly journals PECULIARITIES OF THE STATE'S ACTIVITY IN THE FOREIGN EXCHANGE MARKET OF UKRAINE

2021 ◽  
pp. 23-34
Author(s):  
Ihor REKUNENKO ◽  
Ruslana CHUKHNO
Keyword(s):  
Foreign Exchange ◽  
Foreign Exchange Market ◽  
Inflation Targeting ◽  
The State ◽  
National Currency ◽  
Exchange Market ◽  
Economic Relations ◽  
Official Exchange Rate ◽  
Effective Activity ◽  
National Bank

Introduction. One of the urgent and urgent problems today is the effective activity of the state in the foreign exchange market of Ukraine, which in an unstable economic situation should be primarily aimed at stabilizing and supporting the national currency, which in turn will create a basis for economic growth and support economic processes in the country, establishing interna­tional relations and increasing the competitiveness of the economy as a whole. The purpose of the article is to study the peculiarities of the state's activity in the foreign exchange market of Ukraine, to determine the factors and problems that affect its condition. Results. This paper considers the peculiarities of the state's activity in the foreign exchange market, the regulator of which is the National Bank of Ukraine, which carries out operations in the foreign exchange market in order to stabilize the official exchange rate of the national currency. It was found that the introduction of the NBU inflation targeting regime and the intro­duction of flexible exchange rates allowed the state to reduce inflation and prevent the accumu­lation of imbalances in the economy. Conclusions. Based on the results of the study, it can be concluded that the state should help reduce negative external and internal factors by implementing an effective monetary policy, which should regulate foreign exchange activities aimed at accumulating Ukraine's gold and foreign exchange reserves, strengthening the national currency and stabilizing Ukraine's foreign economic relations with other countries. world.

Intervention Strategies in Foreign Exchange Market

2020 ◽  
Vol 58 (3) ◽  
pp. 381-399
Author(s):  
Vesna Martin
Keyword(s):  
Exchange Rate ◽  
Foreign Exchange ◽  
Financial Stability ◽  
Foreign Exchange Market ◽  
Foreign Currency ◽  
Supply And Demand ◽  
Central Banks ◽  
Intervention Strategies ◽  
Exchange Market ◽  
The Impact

Abstract The goal of the paper is to present the intervention strategies used by central banks in order to influence the value of the domestic currency, transparency versus discretion when it comes to publishing data about FX intervention and the cost and effectiveness of intervention. It is rarely that nowadays countries allow for an exchange rate to be formed on the market basis through the effects of supply and demand for foreign exchange on the foreign exchange market. The central bank buys or sells a foreign currency in the foreign exchange market in order to increase or decrease the value of its national currency in comparison to the foreign currency. The reasons for the intervention are the reduction of short-term oscillations of the exchange rate, the impact at the level of foreign exchange reserves, as well as the maintaining the price and financial stability as the ultimate goal of most central banks. The paper will present intervention strategies on foreign exchange market, which involves the implementation of interventions in the market of options, forward, foreign currency repo and foreign currency swaps. Then, on the spot market, interventions using an auction, as well as the application of foreign currency indexed certificates.

scholarly journals TRANSAKSI VALUTA ASING (AL-SHARF) DALAM PERSPEKTIF ISLAM

IQTISHODUNA ◽  
2011 ◽  
Vol 3 (2) ◽  
Author(s):  
Muhammad Sulhan
Keyword(s):  
International Trade ◽  
Foreign Exchange ◽  
Foreign Exchange Market ◽  
Foreign Currency ◽  
Islamic Law ◽  
Exchange Market ◽  
Demand And Supply ◽  
Written Text ◽  
The Moment ◽  
Currency Conversion

The written text attempts to explain transactional problem (trade) foreign exchange of Islamic law trade. It is caused by the international trade phenomena that won’t be free from state currency one another as a payment tool in which accelerate the traffic of international trade activity.  The necessity of currency conversion in the international trade will bring up out of foreign exchange demand and supply in the foreign exchange market; it will cause foreign exchange trade transaction at last. Based on the variety of Islamic laws analysis, it is known that the foreign currency  trade practice (al-sharf) is allowed if done based on each other agreement and cash, not to have a speculation (undertake something hoping for the best), there is transactional needed or aware of (saving), and if the transaction done toward the same type of currency so, it must have the same value and if it’s different, it must be done using prevailed rate of exchange (kurs)  in the moment of transaction. The following types of foreign exchange transaction in the foreign exchange market, it is only spot transactional type allowed, meanwhile forward, swap, and option are forbidden because they aren’t cash and contain of maisir (speculation). Besides, the participants should pay more attention toward constrains of foreign exchange trade transaction and they should be able to avoid divergences that are forbidden in Islamic of syariah trade like extortionate, forcing and many others. In this case, these cause the transaction of foreign exchange trade is prohibited.

scholarly journals Pressure Measurement on the Foreign Exchange Market and Currency Crises in Morocco

2021 ◽  
pp. 49-61
Author(s):  
ICHOU Mohammed Adil ◽  
RASSAM Driss ◽  
ABBADI Idriss ◽  
ELHIRI Abderrazak
Keyword(s):  
Exchange Rate ◽  
Foreign Exchange ◽  
Currency Crises ◽  
Foreign Exchange Market ◽  
Nominal Exchange Rate ◽  
Exchange Market ◽  
Foreign Exchange Reserves ◽  
Exchange Market Pressure ◽  
Pressure Index ◽  
Market Pressure

This article aims to assess the pressure upon the official currency of the Kingdom of Morocco - the Dirham - and to detect the periods of crisis on the foreign exchange market. Several methods can be used for this purpose especially the Exchange Market Pressure Index, which is considered as an excellent predictive indicator that takes into account both changes in nominal exchange rate and foreign exchange reserves. In term of results, the pressures on the Moroccan foreign exchange market stem mainly from a substantial decrease in foreign exchange reserves combined with a high deficit of the current account of the balance of payments deficit. In the last part of this article, a logistic model was used to forecast the EMPI for the end of the year 2020. The results of this modeling showed that the pressure on the Moroccan foreign exchange market remained generally under control during the year, although its signs could be felt particularly in the fourth quarter. These results were corroborated by the 2020 officially published figures. Keywords: Foreign exchange market, Exchange Market Pressure Index, Exchange rate, Foreign exchange reserves.

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