scholarly journals Does the Number of Hajj Pilgrims Boost Economic Growth in Saudi Arabia?

2021 ◽  
Vol 18 (2A) ◽  
pp. 468-488
Author(s):  
Khalid Al Atwi
Keyword(s):  
Economic Growth ◽  
Saudi Arabia ◽  
Real Effective Exchange Rate ◽  
Gdp Growth ◽  
Long Run ◽  
Causality Tests ◽  
Effective Exchange ◽  
Short Run ◽  
Effective Exchange Rate ◽  
Important Policy Implication

This paper uses the multivariate Johansen cointegration approach and Granger causality tests to study the causal relationship between the number of pilgrims and the non-oil GDP growth in Saudi Arabia over the period 1980–2016 by integrating the real effective exchange rate index as an additional variable. Our findings indicate that there is only one long-run relationship between the three variables when the non-oil GDP growth is the dependent variable. There is a unidirectional long-run causality from the number of pilgrims to non-oil GDP growth.  Besides, we find no short-run causal relationships between the three variables. Therefore, an important policy implication resulting from this study is that pilgrims can be a led growth factor to economic growth in Saudi Arabia in the long run. The pilgrimage event can, therefore, be an excellent opportunity for Saudi Arabia to boost its economic activity as stated by its 2030 vision.

scholarly journals The Dynamic Relationship between Tourism and Economy: Evidence from Nepal

2018 ◽  
Vol 5 ◽  
pp. 16-22 ◽  
Author(s):  
Dipendra Karki
Keyword(s):  
Economic Growth ◽  
Real Effective Exchange Rate ◽  
Dynamic Relationship ◽  
Long Run ◽  
International Tourist ◽  
Augmented Dickey Fuller ◽  
Effective Exchange ◽  
Short Run ◽  
Effective Exchange Rate ◽  
Adf Test

The objective of this paper is to analyse the role of tourism in the Nepalese economic growth. I use a trivariate model of real Gross Domestic Product (GDP), international tourist arrivals and real effective exchange rate to investigate the long-run and short-run relationship between tourism and economic growth. The Augmented Dickey-Fuller ( ADF) test is used to determine the order of integration of the series, and I employ the Engle- Granger cointegration procedure to test for the presence of long-run relationship. By using annual macroeconomic data for Nepal for the period of 1962-2011, results reveal that there is a cointegrating relationship between tourism and economic growth.

Some dynamic macroeconomic perspectives for India’s economic growth

2020 ◽  
Vol 12 (4) ◽  
pp. 641-658
Author(s):  
Matiur Rahman ◽  
Anisul Islam
Keyword(s):  
Economic Growth ◽  
Exchange Rate ◽  
Crude Oil ◽  
Real Effective Exchange Rate ◽  
Crude Oil Price ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Long Run ◽  
Effective Exchange ◽  
Short Run ◽  
Effective Exchange Rate

Purpose The purpose of this paper is to study impacts of changes in crude oil price, money supply, fiscal deficit and effective exchange rate on India’s economic growth (expressing all variables in real term). Design/methodology/approach First, a simple macroeconomic model is formulated to this effect. Next, linear autoregressive distributed lag procedure and vector error-correction model are applied for growth empirics. Annual data are used from 1977 through 2015. Findings Rises in real crude oil price and monetized real fiscal deficits have negative short-run and long-run effects on real economic growth. Increase in real money supply and real effective exchange rate appreciation helps promote real economic growth in both short run and long run. In all cases, there is evidence of net interactive positive feedback effects among the variables in the short run. Real effective exchange rate appreciation dampens exports, but it is helpful to imports of capital goods and crude oil that contribute to economic growth. So, the net effect on the economy may be conjecturally positive. Originality/value To the best of the authors’ knowledge, this paper is unique because of the formulation of macro-economic model pertaining to the topic and its subsequent empirical verification. Moreover, this paper seems more comprehensive than some other studies, cited in the literature review.

An Empirical Investigation of India’s Outward Foreign Direct Investment: A Macro Perspective

2019 ◽  
Vol 5 (2) ◽  
pp. 79-88
Author(s):  
Dikshita Kakoti
Keyword(s):  
Foreign Direct Investment ◽  
Direct Investment ◽  
Real Effective Exchange Rate ◽  
Outward Foreign Direct Investment ◽  
Fdi Inflows ◽  
Long Run ◽  
Increasing Trend ◽  
Effective Exchange ◽  
Short Run ◽  
Effective Exchange Rate

Since 1990, globalization of Indian economy led to a speedy growth of foreign direct investment (FDI) inflows and simultaneously outward foreign direct investment (OFDI) also shows an increasing trend. However, India’s OFDI has attracted a little attention from the researchers and they have considered the OFDI in terms of commitments or approved equities. The motivation of this article is to investigate the India’s macro factors influencing actual OFDI flows from India by empirically recognizing four factors, namely gross domestic product, inward FDI, real effective exchange rate, and real interest rate over the period 1980–2016. The study has used Augmented Dicky-Fuller (ADF) and Phillips–Perron (PP) Unit root tests for checking the stationarity of the variable of the model. Later on, autoregressive distributive lag (ARDL) model and error correction mechanism is used for testing the long-run as well as short-run dynamics of the model. The result shows that all the selected variables have positive and significant influence on India’s outward investment flows.

scholarly journals Currency Depreciation, Trade Balance and Intra-Industry Trade Interactions in Turkey’s OECD Trade

2016 ◽  
Vol 8 (4) ◽  
pp. 8 ◽  
Author(s):  
Mehmet Demiral
Keyword(s):  
Exchange Rate ◽  
Trade Balance ◽  
Real Effective Exchange Rate ◽  
Series Data ◽  
Adjustment Process ◽  
Industry Trade ◽  
Long Run ◽  
Effective Exchange ◽  
Short Run ◽  
Effective Exchange Rate

<p>This study re-examines the determinants of Turkey’s trade balance in its manufactures trade with 33 OECD-member countries for the short-run and the long-run. Unlike other studies, in the relationships we also control the moderating effects of the availability of import substitutes proxied by intra-industry trade. We analyze quarterly aggregated time-series data of the period spanning from 1998.QI to 2015.QIII, following the autoregressive distributed lag (ARDL) bounds testing approach to the cointegration and the error correction modeling. Estimation results reveal that real effective exchange rate, together with domestic and foreign incomes are still among the core determinants of Turkey’s trade balance in the manufacturing sectors. There is no significant impact of domestic final oil prices that also include all the taxes on gasoline. The trade balance depends on domestic income negatively and the aggregated income of the OECD countries positively. The finding that real depreciation of Turkish lira against to those of Turkey’s OECD trade partners improves trade balance in both the short-run and the long-run, indicates no evidence of J-curve adjustment process. Unsurprisingly, the intra-industry trade seems to be an important factor that moderates the elasticities of trade balance to its determinants, especially to real effective exchange rate and domestic income. Overall results underline the importance of import-substitution capability besides the export-oriented production to ease the longstanding large trade deficits for Turkey.</p><strong></strong>

scholarly journals Different Approaches to Merchandise Trade Balance in Pakistan

2020 ◽  
Vol 12 (Number 2) ◽  
pp. 19-30
Author(s):  
Yousuf Aboya ◽  
Arsalan Hussain ◽  
Rohail Hassan ◽  
Hassan Mujtaba Nawaz Saleem ◽  
Aamir Hussain Siddiqui
Keyword(s):  
Exchange Rate ◽  
Trade Balance ◽  
Trade Deficit ◽  
Real Effective Exchange Rate ◽  
Series Data ◽  
Long Run ◽  
Effective Exchange ◽  
Short Run ◽  
Merchandise Trade ◽  
Effective Exchange Rate

The current study empirically examines the three major approaches to trade balance for Pakistan by utilizing the yearly data from 1972 to 2016. Monetary, elasticity, and absorption approaches were tested by developing a model that incorporates all three approaches. The significant contribution of the study is that it uses only the merchandise trade deficit account, which includes trade of only physical goods. The study used time-series data; therefore, variables have been tested for the stationarity, and it is found that there is a combination of I (0) and I (1) variables, so ARDL bounds testing approach to co-integration has been employed to find the short run and long run associations among the variables. The bound test results discovered that there is a presence of stable long-term association among the merchandise trade deficit account, real broad money supply, real effective exchange rate, and real domestic absorption. The results further revealed that merchandise trade discrepancy is determined purely by the real effective exchange rate, which specifies that the exchange rate's devaluation increases the deficit in the long run whereas in the short-run increase in domestic absorption decreases the merchandise trade deficit.

scholarly journals Econometric Analysis of Determinants of Real Effective Exchange Rate in Nigeria (1960-2015)

2016 ◽  
Vol 9 (1) ◽  
pp. 62-80 ◽  
Author(s):  
Waheed Ibrahim
Keyword(s):  
Exchange Rate ◽  
Crude Oil ◽  
Terms Of Trade ◽  
Oil Price ◽  
Real Effective Exchange Rate ◽  
Crude Oil Price ◽  
Long Run ◽  
Effective Exchange ◽  
Short Run ◽  
Effective Exchange Rate

Abstract This study investigates the determinants of real effective exchange rate in Nigeria for the period between 1960 and 2015 using the vector error correction mechanism to separate long run from the short run fundamentals. The findings from the regression estimates revealed that; terms of trade, openness of the economy, net capital inflow and total government expenditure were the major long run determinants of real effective exchange rate in the country while variables such as; broad money supply (M2), nominal effective exchange rate, structural adjustment program dummy, June 12 crisis and change to civil rule dummies were revealed as the major short run determinants of exchange rate in Nigeria between 1960 and 2015. The study concludes by recommending that since the major variable of terms of trade (crude oil price) is out of the government control, the effect of shocks due to the fluctuations of crude oil price can be minimized by shifting the economy from a mono-product nation and diversify the economy to increase productive capacity. Also, the change to civil rule dummy used in the study revealed that the system has not been friendly with the country’s real effective exchange rate, thus needing to review the system and bringing out all negative activities there in to ensure Nigeria’s currency appreciation. Guided openness is also suggested to avert the danger that unguided trade liberalization may bring into the country.

Asymmetric Effects of Exchange Rate and Its Relationship with Foreign Investments: A Case of Indian Stock Market

2020 ◽  
pp. 097226292091410
Author(s):  
Saif Siddiqui ◽  
Preeti Roy
Keyword(s):  
Exchange Rate ◽  
Stock Returns ◽  
Real Effective Exchange Rate ◽  
Rate Asymmetry ◽  
Long Run ◽  
High Volatility ◽  
Effective Exchange ◽  
Short Run ◽  
Indian Stock Market ◽  
Effective Exchange Rate

Emerging markets, including India, are witnessing an influx of foreign capital. The article investigates the role of exchange rate which influences both the net foreign institutional investments (FIIs) and the stock markets, using monthly data, from January 2008 to May 2018. The effects of real effective exchange rate are studied through non-linear ARDL co-integration. The long-run relationship is found in all the three models constructed. The results highlight the nature of FII flows in relation to exchange rate asymmetry. Real rupee depreciation has a long-run effect on their debt flows. The ‘adjustment asymmetry effect’ of exchange rate is found for equity flows in the long run. The similar effect is observed for the Nifty 50 model. Due to high volatility, even positive stock returns do not attract equity FII flows. In the short run, rupee depreciation in real terms negatively influences Nifty returns. The S&P 500 returns explain FII flows indicating information asymmetry. These outcomes serve a vital input for key stakeholders such as potential FIIs, domestic traders, regulators and policymakers.

Analyzing the Impact of Real Effective Exchange Rate and Investment on Trade Deficit in the United Kingdom

2021 ◽  
Vol 9 (2) ◽  
pp. 241-249
Author(s):  
Allah Ditta ◽  
Ruqayya Ibraheem ◽  
Muahammad Ayub
Keyword(s):  
United Kingdom ◽  
Exchange Rate ◽  
Trade Deficit ◽  
Real Effective Exchange Rate ◽  
The United Kingdom ◽  
Long Run ◽  
Effective Exchange ◽  
Short Run ◽  
Effective Exchange Rate ◽  
The Impact

The major purpose of this study is to determine the long-run and short-run determinants of the trade deficit in the United Kingdom (UK). The autoregressive distributive lagged (ARDL) approach has been employed for estimation purposes in this study. The study finds that there is negative and significant relationship exists between the real effective exchange rate (REER) and the export to import ratio in the long run. The empirical results reveal that a one percent increase in REER causes a decrease in the export to import ratio by 0.37%, while a positive relationship is observed between REER and the export to import ratio in the short run. The impact of gross fixed capital formation on the export to import ratio is statistically significant and negative in the long run as well as in the short run. The value is negative and statistically significant which validates convergence towards the equilibrium both in the case of UK exports to high-income and low-income trading partners (LITPs). The study suggests that real exchange rate and investment are major determinants for trade balance in the case of the United Kingdom and need proper attention.

Does Trade Liberalization Improve Trade Balance in Pakistan?

2017 ◽  
Vol 18 (2) ◽  
pp. 158-183
Author(s):  
Muhammad Arshad Khan ◽  
Atif Ali Jaffri ◽  
Faisal Abbas ◽  
Azad Haider
Keyword(s):  
Trade Liberalization ◽  
Trade Balance ◽  
Negative Association ◽  
Balance Of Payments ◽  
Real Effective Exchange Rate ◽  
Long Run ◽  
Effective Exchange ◽  
Short Run ◽  
Effective Exchange Rate ◽  
The Impact

This article examines the impact of trade liberalization, that is, reduction of tariff and non-tariff barriers on trade balance, in Pakistan over the period 1982–2013. The results reveal that reduction of average effective tariff rate improves trade balance in the short run, while lowering of non-tariff barriers deteriorates trade balance in the long run as well as in the short run. The analysis also suggests that depreciation of real effective exchange rate and foreign income causes an improvement in the trade balance, whereas domestic income deteriorates it. The negative association between the reduction in non-tariff barriers and trade balance worsens sustainability of current account of the balance of payments in Pakistan.

scholarly journals Effects of Exchange Rate Volatility On Non-Traditional Exports In Ghana

2017 ◽  
Vol 7 (2017) ◽  
pp. 80-103
Author(s):  
Camara Kwasi Obeng
Keyword(s):  
Exchange Rate ◽  
Exchange Rate Volatility ◽  
Real Effective Exchange Rate ◽  
Distributed Lag ◽  
Long Run ◽  
Effective Exchange ◽  
Short Run ◽  
Auto Regressive ◽  
The Government ◽  
Effective Exchange Rate

The government of Ghana has implemented a number of policies to strengthen the production and export of non-traditional products as a way of diversifying exports in Ghana with very little success. Foremost among these policies is the liberalization of exchange rate. Meanwhile, the exchange rate has been very volatile. The study, therefore, examines the effects of exchange rate volatility on non-traditional exports in Ghana.This study employed Auto-regressive Distributed Lag (ARDL) co-integration estimation technique for the investigation. The results indicate that exchange rate volatility negatively impacts Ghana’s non-traditional exports. Also, the effect is greater in the long- run than it is in the short-run. Other results also show that world income, growth rate of the economy and Treasury bill rate promote non-traditional exports, but real effective exchange rate does not. The value of the paper lies in the discussion of the short-run and long-run effects of exchange rate volatility on non-traditional exports in the Ghanaian context.

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