ANALISIS PERDAGANGAN INTRA INDUSTRI REGIONAL COMPREHENSIVE ECONOMIC PARTNERSHIP (RCEP) PADA PRODUK PERTANIAN

Abstrak Perdagangan intra-industri memainkan peranan penting dalam literatur ekonomi internasional saat ini. Pada tahun 2019, total ekspor Indonesia ke negara-negara anggota RCEP sebesar 61,65% dari total ekspor Indonesia, dan 44% dari total ekspor ke RCEP disumbang oleh sektor pertanian. Penelitian ini bertujuan untuk mengkaji tingkat interdependensi Indonesia dengan 14 mitra dagangnya dalam RCEP. Data yang digunakan adalah data sekunder time series arus perdagangan komoditi pertanian Indonesia dengan negara-negara RCEP di tahun 2010-2019 yang diperoleh dari Trademap. Metode analisis data yang digunakan adalah intra-industry trade index. Hasil kajian pola perdagangan Indonesia dan RCEP yang diidentifikasi melalui keterkaitan perdagangan (IIT) menunjukkan komoditas yang memiliki nilai rata-rata IIT tertinggi adalah olahan tepung-tepungan (HS 19). Hal ini menunjukkan jika keterkaitan perdagangan Indonesia RCEP untuk produk tepung-tepungan (HS 19) bersifat dua arah (two-way trade). Sedangkan untuk negara, Malaysia adalah negara yang memiliki keterkaitan perdagangan terkuat dengan Indonesia. Nilai rata-rata IIT Indonesia-RCEP sebesar 19,74 menggambarkan keterkaitan banyak produk pertanian Indonesia dan RCEP yang masih rendah dan tergolong inter-industry trade. Rendahnya nilai IIT ini bisa saja disebabkan masih besarnya perdagangan satu arah di RCEP, dimana Indonesia masih dominan melakukan impor. Oleh karena itu, penting bagi pemerintah untuk lebih meningkatkan ekspor komoditas potensial dengan memberi insentif kepada industri pengolahan produk pertanian melalui keringanan pajak dalam jangka waktu tertentu. Kata kunci: Intra-industry Trade, RCEP, Sektor Pertanian Abstract Intra-industrial trade plays an important role in today's international economic literature. In 2019, Indonesia's total exports to RCEP member countries amounted to 61.65% of Indonesia's total exports, and 44% of total exports to RCEP were contributed by the agricultural sector. This study aims to examine the level of interdependence between Indonesia and its 14 trading partners in RCEP. The data used is secondary data from the time series of trade flows of agricultural commodities between Indonesia and RCEP countries in 2010-2019 which were obtained from Trademap. The data analysis method used is the intra-industry trade index. The results of the study show, if there is a tendency to increase the IIT index of Indonesia with trading partners, it's just that when viewed from each RCEP member, the IIT value still tends to fluctuate. Malaysia is an RCEP member country with the highest IIT score in its agricultural sector, on the other hand, the agricultural sector in Cambodia has the lowest IIT score. Cereal and flour processed commodities (HS 19) were the commodities with the highest IIT, while meat and edible meat scraps (HS 02) were the commodities with the lowest value. Based on the results of the IIT value, it can be seen that many agricultural products are still classified as inter-industry trade. Therefore, it is important for the government to further increase potential commodity exports by providing incentives to processing agricultural industries through tax breaks for a certain period. Keywords: Intra-industry Trade, RCEP, Agricultural Sector JEL Classification: F10, F13, F1

Measuring the capacity to combat illicit tobacco trade in 160 countries

Background Illicit trade of tobacco negatively affects countries’ tobacco control efforts. It leads to lower tobacco prices and makes tobacco products more accessible to vulnerable populations. In this study, we constructed an illicit tobacco trade index, which measures the structural and institutional capabilities of 160 countries in addressing illicit tobacco trade. We collected the most recent and best available data on general governance, tobacco control policies, and trade and customs practices. Results Singapore, New Zealand, Finland and Sweden lead countries with the most favorable illicit tobacco trade score. We observed a positive relationship between illicit tobacco trade scores and Gross National Income (GNI) per capita and a negative relationship with the share of illicit tobacco trade to total tobacco consumption. Conclusions The capability to combat illicit trade varies across countries. However, on average, low and middle-income countries (LMICs) are less capable of addressing illicit tobacco trade as suggested by the lower illicit tobacco trade index score. The lower index score in low and middle-income countries was mainly driven by low scores in tobacco control policies and trade and customs practices and conditions. Our study reinforces the importance for LMICs to adopt the WHO’s Protocol to Eliminate Illicit Tobacco Trade Products, particularly committing to treaty obligations and investing on track and trace system and other customs reforms.

The Impact of Covid 19 on Fisher and Fish FarmerTerms of Trade

Reflecting the level of welfare of the fishers and fish farmers, terms of trade index (namely NTN/NTP) is believed to have decreased as the result of the Covid 19 outbreak. And, recognizing the important role of fisheries in the economy, understanding what have occured to the index is relevant. This paper aimed to: (i) analyze the impact of the outbreak on NTN/NTPi and (ii) identify what changes in variables have significant contribution to the NTN/NTPi decrease. The analytical method used is descriptive quantitative. The primary data consisted of: (i) fisher and fish farmer terms of trade as published by the Central Bureau of Statistics, (ii) variables that compose the price index received by fishermen / fish farmers and the index of prices paid by fishermen / fish farmers. The results showed that the decline in NTN and NTP occurred in all provinces in Indonesia. For fishers and fish farmers, variables of received price index that had the most significant effect on the decline is basic need cost such as food, drinks, cloth and transportation while variables of paid price index that had the most significant effect on the decline is capital goods.

AGRICULTURAL INTRA-INDUSTRY TRADE IN SERBIA

Intra-industrial trade is the exchange of products between countries in the same sector of the economy. A significant part of export and import in goods takes place within the same sector of the economy. This paper analyzes the intra-industrial trade in agricultural products of Serbia and its foreign trade partners from 2004 to 2018. The Grubel-Lloyd intra-industrial trade index was used as a measure. The value of GLI in agricultural products increased over the observed period, ranging from 0.485 to 0.590 as in 2018, while the number of IIT-dominated groups ranged from 26 to 35. The results obtained indicate that vertical IIT is more prevalent than horizontal IIT and that the export of products with lower prices dominates, i. e. those that are, according to the assumptions of the model, of lower quality than the imported products. Dynamic change analysis shows that certain changes in the IIT pattern occur over time, but that changes are gradual without sudden peaks in the IIT structure.

Measurement and Analysis of Agricultural Products Trade Level between China and Ukraine

The analysis of intra-industry trade and inter-industry trade in international trade in different regions can fully explain the status of export trade and the advantages and disadvantages of products in different regions. The purpose of this research is to analyze the overall agricultural trade situation between China and Ukraine and the nature of the specific trade. To analyze agricultural import and export trade data between China and Ukraine, the author uses the Grubel-Lloyd index (intra-industry trade index) and the Brulhart index (the marginal inter-industry trade index in a specific period). The Grubel-Lloyd index measures the intra-industry trade of a particular product. The Brulhart index is closely related to that of intra-industry trade, that being the export and import of the same items, but concerns changes in exports and imports between two points in time as opposed to their values at a given point in time. The research is based on data for 2011-2020, which are contained in the UN Comtrade database. The research results show that agricultural trade between China and Ukraine is mutually beneficial. The difference in agricultural resource endowment and agricultural structure directly affects the trade of agricultural products between the two countries. The agricultural products exported from China to Ukraine are mainly unprocessed or primary processed agricultural products. Seafood, meat products, fruits, and vegetables account for a large proportion. The main imports are also primary processed agricultural products such as grains and vegetable oils. The agricultural product trade between the two countries is mainly based on intra-industry trade, and the difference in agricultural technology level is an important factor in determining bilateral agricultural exports.

Business Confidence and Business Tourism in Japan

This study explored the asymmetric impact of business confidence index (BCI), real effective exchange rate, inflation, the value of trade index and Gross Domestic Product (GDP) on inbound business tourism in Japan using the methodology of asymmetric cointegration. The paper uses the nonlinear autoregressive distributed lag (NARDL) bounds test procedure to obtain the long-run cointegrating relationship. The estimated NARDL results show that in the long-run, the negative asymmetric impact of the BCI is stronger than the positive impact. Finally, the study confirms that for the long-run, asymmetric relation exists between tourism, BCI, real effective exchange rate, inflation, GDP and value of trade index.

Los resultados de la Iniciativa de la Ayuda para el Comercio en América Latina: Una primera valoración

In the current context of budgetary adjustments on the part of numerous donors, there is an increasing public pressure in favour of the accountability for the use of the resources devoted to official development assistance. That is why it is necessary to measure and evaluate the results of the projects and programmes financed by that assistance. The goal of this article is to offer a first assessment of the results of the Initiative of Aid for Trade for the case of Latin America. To achieve this goal, a double quantitative and qualitative approach is applied, involving the use of the Enabling Trade Index and the case stories of aid for trade projects and programmes.

Competitiveness of the European Union in Light of Foreign Trade

The main aim of this study is to ana­lyse and present com­pet­it­ive­ness in order to eval­u­ate trends in the Mem­ber States of the EU. Com­pet­it­ive­ness is ex­plained at a cor­por­ate, na­tional and re­gional level. Two im­port­ant stat­ist­ical in­dic­at­ors are con­sidered for its cal­cu­la­tion: the Com­mod­ity terms of trade (C), also known as the net barter terms of trade (N), and the In­come terms of trade index (I), which com­mu­nic­ates the cor­rel­a­tion between changes in quant­ity and price. A stable eco­nomy re­quires sur­plus in the trade bal­ance and im­prove­ment in ex­change rate. The primary pur­pose of the goods ex­port in­dic­ator is to cap­ture the know­ledge cap­ital avail­able in a coun­try in order to provide char­ac­ter­ist­ics and map the struc­ture of trade for use as gauging tools. The three na­tions in which ex­port sur­plus to GDP is very high are the Neth­er­lands, Switzer­land, and Ire­land. Neg­at­ive trade bal­ances have been re­cog­nised in Ro­mania, France, and the United King­dom. As a res­ult of changes in prices and volumes, nom­inal trad­ing val­ues were seen to rise con­tinu­ously in 2018. Global com­mod­ity ex­ports glob­ally in­creased by 10 per cent, pre­dom­in­antly pro­pelled by 20 per cent in­crease in oil prices. Rapid growth and de­vel­op­ment in in­nov­a­tion trig­gers in­crease in GDP and ex­ports. Ad­di­tion­ally, it is ob­served that ex­port grows sig­ni­fic­antly faster in the Euro Area Mem­ber States than in non-EEA Mem­ber States.