scholarly journals ПРОГНОЗУВАННЯ ЕФЕКТИВНОСТІ ФІНАНСОВОЇ ПОЛІТИКИ В УМОВАХ ЗАГОСТРЕННЯ КРИЗОВИХ ЯВИЩ В ЕКОНОМІЦІ ВНАСЛІДОК ПАНДЕМІЇ COVID-19

2019 ◽  
pp. 99-112
Author(s):  
Луценко А.С.
Keyword(s):  
Regression Model ◽  
Small Businesses ◽  
Income Tax ◽  
Value Added ◽  
Personal Income ◽  
Negative Consequences ◽  
Personal Income Tax ◽  
Tax Revenues ◽  
Pessimistic Scenario ◽  
The Impact

The article substantiates that in the context of solving the problem of improving the forms and methods of fiscal influence on the economy, planning strategic directions of fiscal policy should be based on the principles of non-discredit regulation, which is achieved if changes in tax revenues and government transfers depend on GDP. To this end, a correlation-regression analysis of the impact of GDP on tax revenues to the consolidated budget, where the results of the regression model are used to forecast the revenue side of the budget in different scenarios of economic development in a pandemic. The negative influence of factors is marked: a significant drop in effective demand of the population; significant unemployment due to the return of workers, mass layoffs; mass bankruptcy of medium and small businesses; deep protracted recession; accelerating inflation. To build a regression model, two factors were selected that are considered as key factors influencing the dynamics of the revenue side: gross domestic product, consumer price index. The forecast was based on actual data for the period 2007-2019. The calculations showed that the growth rate of tax revenues to the budget of Ukraine will decrease significantly due to the impact of the crisis caused by the pandemic. In particular, under the optimistic forecast, tax revenues will increase by more than eight percent in 2020, and under the pessimistic forecast will decrease by seven percent. In 2021, the gap between the pessimistic and optimistic scenarios has narrowed significantly and according to calculations, we can expect a slight increase in tax payments by twelve percent. The level of redistribution will also decrease to about twenty-five percent. It is proved that when building a model of fiscal regulation, the impact of certain types of taxes on the revenue side of the budget, in particular, personal income tax and value added tax, should be taken into account. It is established that the crisis phenomena, accompanied by bankruptcy and closure of business entities, and hence an increase in the number of laid off employees, will lead to a decrease in budget revenues from personal income tax. The results of forecast calculations show that this source of revenue should be expected to decrease by at least ten percent, and under the pessimistic scenario - the decline in revenues from this tax in 2020 could reach twenty percent. It is determined that the negative dynamics of VAT revenues can be observed only in the pessimistic scenario, and the decrease is insignificant - about five percent. Under the optimistic scenario, revenues will increase by about twenty percent in 2020 and thirty-five percent in 2021 compared to 2019. It was found that the most «vulnerable» to the crisis caused by the COVID-19 pandemic is the article of personal income tax revenues, which, accordingly, requires the development of a certain algorithm of measures to create sufficient fiscal incentives to minimize the negative consequences.

scholarly journals THE IMPACT OF INFORMAL EMPLOYMENT ON THE FORMATION OF STATE BUDGET REVENUES IN UKRAINE

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Vitalii Rysin ◽  
Illia Antoshchuk
Keyword(s):  
Tax Evasion ◽  
Income Tax ◽  
Budget Deficit ◽  
Shadow Economy ◽  
Personal Income ◽  
Informal Employment ◽  
Negative Consequences ◽  
Personal Income Tax ◽  
Tax Revenues ◽  
The Impact

The annual execution of the Consolidated Budget of Ukraine with a deficit determines the need for borrowing and increases the country's public debt. Failure to receive a significant amount of funds in the budgets of different levels is provoked primarily by tax evasion by a significant part of potential taxpayers. This applies in particular to the personal income tax, the bulk of which comes from the collection of salaries of individuals. The purpose of the article is to identify the impact of informal employment and non-payment of taxes on the budget's shortfall of a significant amount of tax revenues, to determine the possible consequences of this phenomenon and ways to minimize it. 2020 increased Ukraine's Consolidated Budget deficit almost threefold compared to 2019. This increase in the budget deficit was due not only to the emergence of unplanned costs associated with the negative consequences of the pandemic, but also to a reduction in tax revenues due to the quarantine restrictions imposed by the authorities. The excess of government spending over revenue has once again exacerbated the question of whether the state uses all its resources efficiently to fill the budget. Of course, it is difficult to fully assess how much the Consolidated Budget loses revenue each year due to corruption, money laundering, the shadow economy and a number of other factors. However, in the article, based on open data on the number of informally employed, we tried to estimate the budget losses from personal income tax from wages, based on the number of informally employed during 2014-2020, and compare the results with the size of the Consolidated Budget deficit of Ukraine similar period. This allowed us to assess the possibility of overcoming the budget deficit by removing a large number of informally employed workers from the shadow of income. It is determined that shadow employment is only one of the many factors of budget revenue shortfalls, but overcoming it can significantly reduce the budget deficit. However, overcoming informal employment and the shadow economy in general requires not only increased control over business activities and the payment of taxes, but also a set of measures to stimulate indirect impact, which in the medium term may lead to economic entities out of the shadows and legalize their income.

The impact of personal income tax rates on the employment decisions of small businesses

2018 ◽  
Vol 7 (1) ◽  
pp. 74-104
Author(s):  
Kathleen Grace
Keyword(s):  
Small Business ◽  
Small Businesses ◽  
Income Tax ◽  
Personal Income ◽  
Tax Rates ◽  
Personal Income Tax ◽  
Employment Decisions ◽  
Wage Bill ◽  
Content Type ◽  
The Impact

Purpose Small businesses file taxes in accordance with the personal income tax code because they are considered flow-through entities. Thus, personal income tax reforms directly affect the incentives small business owners face regarding employment and operations. The paper aims to discuss these issues. Design/methodology/approach The authors use the changes in personal income tax rates during the 1993 and 2001-2003 reforms and micro-level data to estimate the effect of statutory tax rate changes on small business employment decisions. Findings The authors add two contributions to the current literature: first, the author allow for intertemporal tax planning and second, the author allow the firm’s decision to employ labor to be correlated with the firm’s wage bill decision. Estimation of a Heckman selection model for wage bills shows that the probability that a business will employ labor is 1.18 percent higher when current tax rates increase by one percentage point and 0.70 percent lower when future rates are expected to increase by one percentage point. Among firms that already employ labor, the median wage bill elasticity with respect to current tax rates is −0.64. These estimates are larger than those reported in previous research because my model includes future taxes and allows for correlation between the firm’s employment and wage bill decisions. Omitting the intertemporal tax responses biases the estimates of previous researchers upwards, whereas assuming the two firm decisions are independent biases estimates towards zero. Originality/value This paper has been cited in publications published in Journal of Entrepreneurship and Public Policy.

scholarly journals Measuring and estimating tax elasticity in the Republic of Serbia

Ekonomika ◽  
2021 ◽  
Vol 67 (1) ◽  
pp. 17-26
Author(s):  
Branimir Kalaš ◽  
Vera Mirović ◽  
Jelena Andrašić
Keyword(s):  
Social Security ◽  
Gross Domestic Product ◽  
Income Tax ◽  
Value Added ◽  
Personal Income ◽  
Corporate Income Tax ◽  
Domestic Product ◽  
Personal Income Tax ◽  
Tax Revenues ◽  
The Republic

The paper analyzes tax elasticity in the Republic of Serbia in terms of tax revenues, personal income tax, corporate income tax, value added tax, social security contributions and excises for the period 2005-2019. Tax elasticity manifest sensitivity of tax forms to a change in the gross domestic product, where results have shown that indirect taxes have higher coefficients of elasticity compared to direct taxes. Results of empirical analysis have manifested that tax revenues are elastic to a change in gross domestic product, where 1% increase in GDP makes to a change of tax revenues for 1.31%. Also, tax elasticity is the highest at corporate income tax, while revenues from value added tax and excises are also elastic in the observed period. On the other hand, personal income tax and social security contributions are inelastic to a change in the gross domestic product in the Republic of Serbia.

Zasady opodatkowania dochodów i obrotów ze sprzedaży produktów wytwarzanych w gospodarstwach rolnych

2021 ◽  
Vol 1 (69) ◽  
pp. 189-215
Author(s):  
Jacek Kulicki
Keyword(s):  
Income Tax ◽  
Value Added ◽  
Personal Income ◽  
Agricultural Activity ◽  
Personal Income Tax ◽  
Value Added Tax ◽  
Excise Tax ◽  
Agricultural Income

The analysis of the applicable regulations leads to the conclusion that the system of taxation of farmers’ income is complex. The author points out different definitions of agricultural activity for the purposes of income tax and value added tax. The legislator makes the classification of agricultural income among individual sources of income for the purposes of personal income tax dependent on whether they are processed or unprocessed products and on the method of their processing. The differences in the treatment of farmers’ revenues for the purposes of income tax overlap with the tax obligations with regard to value added tax and excise tax.

scholarly journals Evaluation the impact of the personal income tax reform in the Czech Republic in 2021 on effective tax rate and tax progressivity

2021 ◽  
Vol 7 (2) ◽  
pp. 134-145
Author(s):  
M. Krajňák ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Income Tax ◽  
Tax Reform ◽  
Personal Income ◽  
Personal Income Tax ◽  
Effective Tax Rate ◽  
Tax Base ◽  
Tax Rate ◽  
Tax Progressivity ◽  
The Impact ◽  
Income Tax Reform

Legislation governing personal income taxation is often subject to changes. A significant personal income tax reform was carried out in the Czech Republic in 2021. The reform implements a progressive tax rate, changes the way the tax base is determined, and increases the tax relief for the taxpayer. The aim of the article is to evaluate the impact of the personal income tax reform on the effective tax rate and tax progressivity. To that end, methods of regression analysis have been used. The source of information for analysis was the data published by the Czech Statistical Office. It was found that in 2021, in comparison with 2020, the tax burden represented in this study by the effective tax rate, in all cases became lower, approximately by 5%. The main reason for this decline is the adjustment of the method of construction of the tax base, which, for the first time in the history of the Income Tax Act, is gross wages. Until the end of 2020, the tax base was a super-gross wage, or the gross wage increased by social security contribution borne by the employer at his costs. The second factor that reduces the tax burden is a CZK 3,000 increase in the deduction per taxpayer per year. This fact increases the degree of tax progressivity, as confirmed by the results of the progressivity analysis and the regression analysis. The changes that have taken place in the personal income tax this year have a positive impact on the taxpayer, but from the point of view of the state, this reform has reduced the state budget revenues.

scholarly journals Opportunities for Simplification in the Personal Income Tax Systems of the Visegrad Countries

2020 ◽  
Vol 65 (4) ◽  
pp. 531-553
Author(s):  
Éva Bonifert Szabóné
Keyword(s):  
Income Tax ◽  
Policy Instruments ◽  
Degree Of Approximation ◽  
Personal Income ◽  
Tax Burden ◽  
Personal Income Tax ◽  
It Use ◽  
Tax System ◽  
Tax Systems ◽  
The Impact

Due to the numerous factors that can influence the impact of the tax system and redistribution, there is no single correct answer to the question of which composition of economic policy instruments needs to be applied to achieve a desired redistributive effect. The general aim of the study is to investigate in relation to the quantifiable parameters of income tax systems, whether the consideration of the aspects of fairness and justice does have an excessively negative effect on the simplicity of tax systems. The study investigates the possibilities of simplifying the personal income tax system’s composition in some Central and Eastern European countries, while tax burden curves of the system remain as constant as possible. To this end, the study sets up a theoretical, simplified tax model, the parameters of which are determined by a computer program, in order to generate tax burden curves corresponding most closely to the curves of the real tax system. Based on the analysis, it can be established that the theoretical system – in some cases with restrictions – provides a good approximation to the tax burden curves of the investigated countries. The chosen simple model has a good degree of approximation to a real system that does not have significant breakpoints in its tax burden curves, nor does it use a taxation method that fundamentally modifies the system (e.g., splitting). Practical examples help to understand that a complex personal income tax system in a given country is not necessarily the only possible solution to achieve a given tax burden curve, the function may be reproduced with a good approximation constructed from simpler basic elements.

scholarly journals Tax Literacy

2018 ◽  
Vol 66 (2) ◽  
pp. 553-559
Author(s):  
Michaela Moučková ◽  
Leoš Vítek
Keyword(s):  
Income Tax ◽  
Response Rate ◽  
Statistical Tests ◽  
Value Added ◽  
Practical Experience ◽  
Personal Income ◽  
Personal Income Tax ◽  
Two Factors ◽  
Tax Returns ◽  
The University

Presented paper focuses on measuring tax literacy among bachelor degree students at the University of Economics, Prague, along with analysis of the two factors that influence it. Based on the 150 collected questionnaires (63 % response rate), we measured tax literacy of students (personal income tax and VAT) and examined whether it depends on (i) previous passing of tax courses and (ii) previous practical experience with filing tax returns. More than half of the students were well to excellently-versed in tax matters, including those who have not completed any more advanced tax courses apart from the elementary tax course. For VAT, the results of statistical tests show that students’ knowledge depends on passing a more advanced course on consumption taxation. On the other hand, the link between experience with tax returns and results of tax literacy tests cannot be unambiguously confirmed or rejected. Within the first statistical test (personal income tax), it was established that students’ knowledge does not depend on previous filing of tax returns; the second test (value added tax) led to the opposite conclusion.

Improving the mechanism of pit collection for community development in the context of decentralization

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
О. Boiko
Keyword(s):  
Local Governments ◽  
Income Tax ◽  
Well Being ◽  
Local Communities ◽  
The State ◽  
Personal Income ◽  
Personal Income Tax ◽  
Tax Revenues ◽  
Fiscal Efficiency ◽  
Local Budget

Problem setting. In the analysis of any budget, important markers are åðó revenue indicators, which 80% consist of tax revenues. After all, they give the government and citizens an understanding of how capable the communityis, what amount of expenditures can be made from income, and whether the community has can develop and improve the well-being of its inhabitants. Personal income tax (hereinafter – PIT) covers about 60% of tax revenues of local budgets of Ukraine, so its important role for socio-economic development of local communities and regionsis clear.Recent research and publications analysis. The issue of studyingthe effectiveness of the mechanism of PIT payment and its influence on the process of generation of local government revenues have been in the center of research of domestic scientists such as O. Bandurka, N. Dieieva, I. Liutyi, N. Redinaet al. At the same time, the issue of the effectiveness of PIT collection and its importance for the development of communities in the current conditions of decentralization requires further thorough research.Highlighting previously unsettled parts of the general problem. The role and place of personal income tax in the structure of tax revenues of local budgets have been studies in the paper, the essence of the mechanism of its collectionhas been substantiated, the provision on the effectiveness of tax control over the completeness of its revenues have been analyzedand the reasons for reforming its payment procedure by tax agents have been justified.The purpose of the paper is to study the role and place of PIT in the structure of tax revenues of local budgets, substantiate the essence of the mechanism of its collection, analyze PIT administration procedure, makeproposals for improving the effectivenessof fiscal role of this tax for the community development.Paper main body. One of the most important taxes in the system of direct taxation in Ukraine is the personal income tax. Its share in the structure of tax revenues of the consolidated budget in recent years was about 20% – 23% (90% of which – revenues to local budgets, 10% – revenues of the state budget).The procedure for imposition of this taxis regulated by Section IV of the Tax Code of Ukraine, deducted from the income of citizens at a rate of 18%, which applies to almost all types of income of citizens.In the structure of tax revenues of local budgets, its share is the largest one and averages up to 60% of all tax revenues. During the period of 2015 – 2020, the fiscal efficiency of PIT in the structure of its revenues to local budgets was growing every year. Nominal PIT revenues to local budgets increased from UAH 54,9 billion in 2015 to UAH 177,8 billion in 2020.The key factors influencing the nominal growth of personal income tax revenues are inflation, as well as the annual increase in the minimum wage, changes in tax rates and other innovations in tax reforms of the recent years.Given the significant fiscal efficiency of PIT and its influence on budget generation of the communities, we cannot ignore the problematic aspects of its collection that have a direct impact on tax revenues in the structure of the newly formed amalgamated territorial communities, since success and well-being of local communities depends primarily on the amount of financial resources they own.Thus, according to the Budget Code of Ukraine, PITis distributed among the budgets in the following amounts: 60% goes to the ATC budget, 15% to the regional budget, and 25% to the state budget.It is worthnoting that the current rules of tax and budget legislation contain quite clear obligations of tax agents to pay PITtransfers to those local budgets within which territory businesses are located.Nevertheless, there are constant challenges for local governments and their ability to influence entrepreneurs to pay PIT at the location of legal entities and their units, and not at the place of registration of legal entities.Does this mean that a significant number of tax agents do not comply with the requirements of tax and budget legislation?The Law of Ukraine on Local Self-Government in Ukraine (Article 28) entitles local self-government bodies to monitor the compliance with obligations to pay to the local budget at enterprises and organizations, regardless of the form of their incorporation.Conclusions of the research and prospects for further studies. Given the above, business entities are obliged to pay PIT in accordance with current legislation at the place of their actual location, regardless of the place of registration, and local governments are empowered to control the completeness of taxes coming to the local budget and must actively exercise the initiative to provide additional revenues to community budgets.This will allow receiving PIT revenues to the budget of the community where the enterprises directly carry out their activities in order to develop communities and increase their solvency for the welfare of citizens.

The Impact of Covid-19 and Lockdown on South African Revenue

2020 ◽  
pp. 1-7
Author(s):  
Mangalani Peter Makananisa ◽  
Keyword(s):  
South African ◽  
Income Tax ◽  
Critical Role ◽  
Value Added ◽  
Fiscal Year ◽  
Personal Income Tax ◽  
State Revenue ◽  
Regression Parameters ◽  
Sample Data ◽  
The Impact

The state revenue plays a critical role in the running of its departments and plays a significant role in the economy. The study investigates the impact of COVID-19 and the lockdown on the South African revenue collections. The study focuses on the major taxes Personal Income Tax (PIT), Corporate Income Tax (CIT) and Value Added Tax (VAT). Over the fiscal year 2008/09 to 2019/20 the three taxes contribute around 80% of the Total Tax (TTAX). The sample data was from quarter 1, 2014 to quarter 2, 2020 (50 observations) obtained with quarter 2 of 2020 carrying the impact of the pandemic. The SARIMA and Holt-Winters models were used to forecast the continuation of the historical patterns in two scenarios, (1.) Without the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic (No shock), and (2.) with the impact of COVID-19 and lockdown (with a shock) on the revenue collections. The R-statistical software was used to obtain the regression parameters and for forecasting purposes. On “average”, the impact of the pandemic is expected to reduce total revenue by around R310.6bn to R1, 127 trillion (on the interval R1, 093 – R1, 162 trillion) from the original estimates of R1, 438 trillion for the fiscal year 2020/21. The average forecast for PIT, CIT and VAT due to the impact of the pandemic is R532.9billion, R172.6billion and R320.9billion respectively. The study further encourages model revision as more data impacted by the pandemic become available

scholarly journals Personal Income Tax and Social Security Coordination in Cross-Border Employment – a Case Study of the Czech Republic and Denmark

2019 ◽  
Vol 21 (1) ◽  
pp. 23-41 ◽  
Author(s):  
Jana Tepperová
Keyword(s):  
Social Security ◽  
Income Tax ◽  
Personal Income ◽  
Personal Income Tax ◽  
The Czech Republic ◽  
Cross Border ◽  
Social Security Contributions ◽  
The Impact ◽  
The Eu

Neither personal income tax nor social security is harmonised within the EU. Social security systems are coordinated at EU level whereas personal income tax in cross-border situations is governed by respective double tax treaties. In most EU countries, personal income tax and social security contributions are relatively distinct payments. This article examines problems surrounding the interaction between personal income tax and social security contributions on a national and international level based on a case study of cross-border employment between the Czech Republic and Denmark. As the Czech and the Danish systems are designed very differently, the case study allows for clear illustration of the issue at-hand. The aim is to identify the elements influencing the impact of different coordination rules in personal income tax and social security contributions, illustrate and discuss the potential problems of such mismatches between the two payments. The impact on final payments differs, not only due to the different levels of coordination of the payments, but also due to the different designs of the two national systems. Thus, it would be very difficult to address all the scenarios with a one size fits all measure for all the EU Member States that would overcome the differences in this coordination.

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