scholarly journals About the First educational seminar on scenario forecasting “The future of the Samipeople under the global changes”.

2020 ◽  
Vol 11 (1-2020) ◽  
pp. 205-208
Author(s):  
Olesya A. Suleymanova ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Global Changes ◽  
The Future ◽  
Educational Seminar

scholarly journals The effects of global changes upon regional ozone pollution in the United States

2009 ◽  
Vol 9 (4) ◽  
pp. 1125-1141 ◽  
Author(s):  
J. Chen ◽  
J. Avise ◽  
B. Lamb ◽  
E. Salathé ◽  
C. Mass ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Urban Areas ◽  
The United States ◽  
Base Case ◽  
Global Changes ◽  
Ozone Pollution ◽  
Modeling Framework ◽  
Voc Emissions ◽  
The Us ◽  
The Future ◽  
Future Case

Abstract. A comprehensive numerical modeling framework was developed to estimate the effects of collective global changes upon ozone pollution in the US in 2050. The framework consists of the global climate and chemistry models, PCM (Parallel Climate Model) and MOZART-2 (Model for Ozone and Related Chemical Tracers v.2), coupled with regional meteorology and chemistry models, MM5 (Mesoscale Meteorological model) and CMAQ (Community Multi-scale Air Quality model). The modeling system was applied for two 10-year simulations: 1990–1999 as a present-day base case and 2045–2054 as a future case. For the current decade, the daily maximum 8-h moving average (DM8H) ozone mixing ratio distributions for spring, summer and fall showed good agreement with observations. The future case simulation followed the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) A2 scenario together with business-as-usual US emission projections and projected alterations in land use, land cover (LULC) due to urban expansion and changes in vegetation. For these projections, US anthropogenic NOx (NO+NO2) and VOC (volatile organic carbon) emissions increased by approximately 6% and 50%, respectively, while biogenic VOC emissions decreased, in spite of warmer temperatures, due to decreases in forested lands and expansion of croplands, grasslands and urban areas. A stochastic model for wildfire emissions was applied that projected 25% higher VOC emissions in the future. For the global and US emission projection used here, regional ozone pollution becomes worse in the 2045–2054 period for all months. Annually, the mean DM8H ozone was projected to increase by 9.6 ppbv (22%). The changes were higher in the spring and winter (25%) and smaller in the summer (17%). The area affected by elevated ozone within the US continent was projected to increase; areas with levels exceeding the 75 ppbv ozone standard at least once a year increased by 38%. In addition, the length of the ozone season was projected to increase with more pollution episodes in the spring and fall. For selected urban areas, the system projected a higher number of pollution events per year and these events had more consecutive days when DM8H ozone exceed 75 ppbv.

Towards a phylogenetic ecology of plant pests and pathogens

2021 ◽  
Vol 376 (1837) ◽  
pp. 20200359 ◽  
Author(s):  
Andrew V. Gougherty ◽  
T. Jonathan Davies
Keyword(s):  
Food Security ◽  
Plant Pathogens ◽  
Insect Pests ◽  
Global Changes ◽  
Ecological Communities ◽  
Native Plant ◽  
Plant Pest ◽  
Evolutionary Relatedness ◽  
Pest Outbreaks ◽  
The Future

Plant–pathogens and insect pests, hereafter pests, play an important role in structuring ecological communities, yet both native and introduced pests impose significant pressure on wild and managed systems, and pose a threat to food security. Global changes in climate and land use, and transportation of plants and pests around the globe are likely to further increase the range, frequency and severity of pest outbreaks in the future. Thus, there is a critical need to expand on current ecological theory to address these challenges. Here, we outline a phylogenetic framework for the study of plant and pest interactions. In plants, a growing body of work has suggested that evolutionary relatedness, phylogeny, strongly structures plant-pest associations—from pest host breadths and impacts, to their establishment and spread in new regions. Understanding the phylogenetic dimensions of plant-pest associations will help to inform models of invasive species spread, disease and pest risk in crops, and emerging pest outbreaks in native plant communities—which will have important implications for protecting food security and biodiversity into the future. This article is part of the theme issue ‘Infectious disease macroecology: parasite diversity and dynamics across the globe’.

scholarly journals EVALUATION OF POSSIBLE CHANGES IN THE RIVER LINE OF THE OKA BASIN FOR THE COMING PERIOD OF THE FIRST HALF OF THE XXI CENTURY

2020 ◽  
Vol 1 (5) ◽  
pp. 71-75
Author(s):  
G. Kh. Ismaiylov ◽  
◽  
N.V. Muraschenkova ◽  
Keyword(s):  
River Basin ◽  
21St Century ◽  
River Runoff ◽  
River Flow ◽  
Climatic Conditions ◽  
Global Changes ◽  
The Future ◽  
Seasonal Runoff ◽  
The City

A retrospective analysis and assessment of long-term changes in the annual and seasonal runoff of the Oka River basin over a long 131-year observation period (1881 / 1882–2011/2012) was performed. The changes in the annual distribution of the Oka river runoff over the seasons of the year (spring flood, summer-autumn and winter low water) from its annual value for the selected time periods (before and after 1976/1977) are considered. It has been noted that over the past decades, river runoff has been formed in new climatic conditions associated with global changes and, as a result, regional climate. The assessment of possible changes in the annual and seasonal runoff of the Oka River basin (to the final alignment – the city of Kaluga, with a basin area of 54,900 km2 ) in the first half of the 21st century is carried out. In assessing changes in the river flow of the Oka basin for the future period, the method of trends (trends) is used, based on the identification of cycles in fluctuations in hydrological characteristics and unidirectional trends (trends) inherent in individual phases (ups and downs) of these cycles, as well as to the establishment of functional (correlation) relationships between environmental factors (climatic, anthropogenic) and the nature of the response (river flow). In this case, the trend model serves as an alternative to the homogeneity hypothesis of long-term fluctuations in river flow. The change in the future values of the river flow of the Oka basin was estimated using averaged data of 30-year periods of time characterized by relative stationarity of climatic and hydrological conditions. The dynamics of the average 30-year values of the annual runoff in the upper reaches of the Oka River (the closure target is the city of Kaluga for the period 1881/1882–2011/2012) is considered. Possible forecasted mean annual values of the annual flow of the Oka River for the first half of the 21st century are obtained

scholarly journals Explicit integration of dispersal-related metrics improves predictions of SDM in predatory arthropods

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Monsimet Jérémy ◽  
Devineau Olivier ◽  
Pétillon Julien ◽  
Lafage Denis
Keyword(s):  
Landscape Connectivity ◽  
Abiotic Factors ◽  
Habitat Specialization ◽  
Potential Range ◽  
Global Changes ◽  
Suitable Habitat ◽  
Explicit Integration ◽  
The Future ◽  
The Impact ◽  
Habitat Variables

ABSTRACTFishing spiders (Dolomedes spp.) make an interesting model to predict the impact of global changes because they are generalist, opportunistic predators, whose distribution is driven mostly by abiotic factors. Yet, the two European species are expected to react differently to forthcoming environmental changes, because of habitat specialization and initial range. We used an original combination of habitat and dispersal data to revisit these predictions under various climatic scenarios. We used the future range of suitable habitat, predicted with habitat variables only, as a base layer to further predict the range or reachable habitat by accounting for both dispersal ability and landscape connectivity. Our results confirm the northward shift in range and indicate that the area of co-occurrences should also increase. However, reachable habitat should expand less than suitable habitat, especially when accounting for landscape connectivity. In addition, the potential range expansion was further limited for the red-listed D. plantarius, which is more habitat-specialist and has a lower ability to disperse. This study highlights the importance of looking beyond habitat variables to produce more accurate predictions for the future of arthropods populations.

scholarly journals Carbon and Water Footprints of Tibet: Spatial Pattern and Trend Analysis

2020 ◽  
Vol 12 (8) ◽  
pp. 3294
Author(s):  
Wu Xie ◽  
Shuai Hu ◽  
Fangyi Li ◽  
Xin Cao ◽  
Zhipeng Tang
Keyword(s):  
Spatial Pattern ◽  
Carbon Emission ◽  
Water Footprint ◽  
Virtual Water ◽  
Future Trend ◽  
Global Changes ◽  
Natural Ecosystem ◽  
The Future ◽  
Great Pressure ◽  
Virtual Resources

Tibet in China has extremely a fragile natural ecosystem, which is under a great pressure from global changes. The carbon footprint (CF) and water footprint (WF), reflecting the pressures of regional development on the natural environment, represent a lacuna in the field of study in Tibet due to missing data. In this paper, the 2012 multi-regional input–output table of China was employed to quantify the CF and WF of Tibet and the relationship between Tibet and other provinces of China. Spatial pattern and key sectors were also studied to demonstrate the current characters and the future trend of footprints. Tibet’s carbon emission was 4.0 Mt, 32.7% of CF, indicating that Tibet was a net importing region of carbon emission. Tibet received embodied carbon emission by trade from other regions, especially from Hebei, Inner Mongolia and Henan provinces, but played a complex role in virtual water allocation by transferring to most provinces and receiving from some provinces. The CF of Tibet will increase under different scenarios of 2030, but the WF can be restricted to 2.5 Gt in the slow scenario. In the future, imports of virtual resources will benefit the fragile ecosystem of Tibet and moreover, it is vital to restrict the local resource-intensive sectors and improve resource-use efficiency.

scholarly journals How does the Earth system generate and maintain thermodynamic disequilibrium and what does it imply for the future of the planet?

2012 ◽  
Vol 370 (1962) ◽  
pp. 1012-1040 ◽  
Author(s):  
Axel Kleidon
Keyword(s):  
Free Energy ◽  
Human Activity ◽  
Climate Models ◽  
Net Primary Productivity ◽  
Second Law Of Thermodynamics ◽  
Global Changes ◽  
Earth System ◽  
Geochemical Composition ◽  
The Earth ◽  
The Future

The Earth's chemical composition far from chemical equilibrium is unique in our Solar System, and this uniqueness has been attributed to the presence of widespread life on the planet. Here, I show how this notion can be quantified using non-equilibrium thermodynamics. Generating and maintaining disequilibrium in a thermodynamic variable requires the extraction of power from another thermodynamic gradient, and the second law of thermodynamics imposes fundamental limits on how much power can be extracted. With this approach and associated limits, I show that the ability of abiotic processes to generate geochemical free energy that can be used to transform the surface–atmosphere environment is strongly limited to less than 1 TW. Photosynthetic life generates more than 200 TW by performing photochemistry, thereby substantiating the notion that a geochemical composition far from equilibrium can be a sign for strong biotic activity. Present-day free energy consumption by human activity in the form of industrial activity and human appropriated net primary productivity is of the order of 50 TW and therefore constitutes a considerable term in the free energy budget of the planet. When aiming to predict the future of the planet, we first note that since global changes are closely related to this consumption of free energy, and the demands for free energy by human activity are anticipated to increase substantially in the future, the central question in the context of predicting future global change is then how human free energy demands can increase sustainably without negatively impacting the ability of the Earth system to generate free energy. This question could be evaluated with climate models, and the potential deficiencies in these models to adequately represent the thermodynamics of the Earth system are discussed. Then, I illustrate the implications of this thermodynamic perspective by discussing the forms of renewable energy and planetary engineering that would enhance the overall free energy generation and, thereby ‘empower’ the future of the planet.

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